Newbie 1733: Mafia Boot Camp Mafia Topic

[Gear]

Hi!

So I guess outing power roles should be a priority?

[Gear]

I agree about Riktus.
It's probably noting, but I was reading his ISO and found: "As said, we can have an argument about this tomorrow." So he doesn't think that he will get shot tonight, but I don't want to read too much into it, since it seems like a really natural thing to say.

This comment by Eiralox worries me a bit:
"Expect it to be erratically. May be very active at times, especially when hunting poor criminal saps through the alleys and into the woods."
I think that it is too obvious a crumb for it to come from a cop, I can imagine it coming from a VT trying to draw the NK or from someone who's BP, but it could still be from a cop.
Reading through his ISO makes me think that he is neither a cop nor a doc, since he draws attention to himself and seems to be working hard to figure out the game.

Vax claimed VT. I'm inclined to believe him, but I guess he could be a doctor aiming to avoid the NK?
I think that the Leyroii was being opportunistic argument might get more traction tomorrow now that Keyen flipped town, but it's hard to tell - for example, NJAC thought his reactions were townie at the end of the day.


I think that NJAC seems to be working to figure out the game, which makes me think that he is not a cop.

I think I agree that Serra is neither a cop nor a doc, I'm inclined to think that cop!doc!serra would have been more delicate with Keyen.

TNE/Shaddow - I think it's certain that TNEs play was going to ensure that she avoided the NK. I could also see PR!town on V/LA replacing out if they see a wagon on them, according to the stats that Serra posted Doc's and Jailkeepers are fairly likely to replace out.

[Gear]

People I am more concerned that they are PRs
Eiralox - do you think he was soft claiming? See above. I'm worried that he could be BP, and if there is a doc, that they also picked up on the crumb.
riktus (SE)
shaddowez (SE)

People I think are more likely VTs
Vaxkiller - VT, no reason to kill.
NJAC (SE)
serrapaladin

So I'd hunt for PR's/RB in the first 3.

[Gear]

Probably I should do the kill and you only be to increase the likelihood one of our actions goes through?

[Gear]

I'm inclined to think that we should RB Riktus. I think that enough people are scum reading him that he's not a priority for us to NK.

I wanted to ask, why do you think Eira is a VT?

[Gear]

I'm happy with that.

Gear kills NJAC

Also UTL

I will be V/LA until Monday

[Gear]

Hi, sorry about that. There was no way that I wasn't going to hammer after Serra claimed a PR.

Tomorrow I am going to argue that I thought he was fake claiming because what kind cop tells town to just lynch them if there's a case against them, so I thought that was him strongly hinting that he was a VT then anyway, and as soon as he claimed a PR I thought he was scum trying to out the real PRs.

I'll say that I don't think that he had a scum result because if he did, he had time after the hammer to claim them.

If you have any suggestions to make this better, I'll take them.

I think if we no kill, it will confirm the doc as town, plus whoever they protect. If they protect you, then tomorrow we no lynch, kill the doc, then the next day I get lynched, kill someone else, and then in LYLO it will confuse people that you are still alive, it's probably a winning move, but not fool proof. If the doc doesn't protect you, then tomorrow there are two confirmed town, and probably the game goes to LYLO with you and the two unconfirmed VTs, which is worse for us because we don't get to choose them.

I'm not opposed to this, but I think that it is much safer for us to kill someone. If our kill goes through, the doc is not confirmed town. Tomorrow is LYLO, where we might win, and if we don't you get to kill whoever you like on the last day.

We need to look through Serra's ISO to see if he hinted a town result - that is one thing that could come back to haunt us. I remember him talking about how he thought he was right about Vax, so that is one possibility, maybe.

[Gear]

Who do you want to kill tonight?

Probably still rb riktus?

I was thinking that there is a chance that Shadow could be the doc, since he was talking about it being MYLO or LYLO, but maybe the real doc wouldn't out himself this way, so I'm not sure.

[Gear]

If we decide to kill, I am not sure who is best. If I'm lynched It's unlikely that people will believe that shadow and I are scum together.

You, Eira and Vax might be an ideal 3 person LYLO, since there's a decent chance that they will cross-vote.

I probably wouldn't want Riktus around. My impression is that he is more likely than others to rethink things.

Maybe it makes sense to kill Riktus tonight. Then maybe we can get shadow lynched tomorrow. On the back of Serra's suspicion, but if I am lynched, kill shaddow at night?

[Gear]

It's a good play. Us shooting a claimed VT has a good chance of helping us sow doubt about any doctor claim, since we know whether there is a doctor or not.

UTL: Gear kills Vax

[Gear]

Unless you object, of there's a no kill, I'll argue that we should lynch. It will get people of my back a bit, since why would I want there to be a lynch when it could be it. My reasoning is that with two confirmed town of six we have a 66% chance of hitting scum among you and the two non-confirmed townies.

[Gear]

If there's no kill, then it's almost confirmed to the town that there is a doctor in the setup. The doc should claim, and chain his target giving two confirm town.

Sure 50, except that I am town!, so of the remaining 3 two are scum

[Gear]

Claim his target, it should say.

[Gear]

It's okay if it doesn't convince people, but I can also point out that the next day the odds will be the same, but with one fewer town voice and the day after that, if it gets that far it's probably 33% with no confirmed town

[Gear]

Serra said it's possible gear is scum without shadow, which will make it hard to convince people he had a guilty on Shadow.

[Gear]

But if people miss that post, there's a chance

[Gear]

I suspect that I will be on defense at the start of the day, and I could end up being lynched. My plan will be to defend my hammer of Serra as I pointed out. My hope is that town will be appropriately cautious, since it is lylo. If they are, that will give me some time, and hopefully they will be distracted.

I'll typically be able to be on at about this time on weekdays. If that is the same for you, we could aim to hammer someone who has a vote on them at this time?

If that is impossible, I think that it will be best for us if I don't vote for anyone other than shadow, unless it is to hammer.

[Gear]

It's not important I think for you to invent a reason to attack shadow. I will try to avoid putting a vote down until after a town person does, unless it becomes impossible to avoid. Then there will be two votes there and you'll be able hammer. For anyone else, I won't vote unless I see a vote from you. If you vote around an hour ago, on a week day, I should be able to hammer, if the person is at L-1.

[Gear]

I guess what I think it's that if you aren't hammering, you should be fairly careful with your vote, since you'll probably have to win this in 3p-Lylo

[Gear]

Also, I will still typically not be able to post on the weekend. If things are heated, I will try to look in, but I can't guarantee anything.