Micro 789 - Alternating 9p - Mafia wins

[Raskolnikov]

It's grasping but that's early d1 for you (and sometimes the rest of the game too ayoooo )
It was pretty much just us 3 around so that being the conversation that continued seems natural, there wasn't much else to talk about

I'm wondering what brings you to this prediction in general, but also if you don't think lovebird would've said what she did as scum. Do you just think it's weird/strange or can you speculate any scum motivation in the mix?
@Same to Iconman

I basically agree with this as a response to BuJaber, although I would add:

Prediction: one of GL, Lovebird, Raska is scum.

Don't think scum!love would be so eager to TR someone so early. It is weird and attracts too much attention.

Why is Lovebird in your scum pool if you don't think she would have acted that way as scum?

actually that's what I thought I asked in that, whoops

[Lovebird]

VOTE: Iconeum

[Lovebird]

This is all fishy to me.

Prediction: one of GL, Lovebird, Raska is scum.

Reasons or just another postgame thing?

[Lovebird]

Why are only three people talking?

[Lovebird]

ZZZX and not_mafia lose the entrance awards.

Who wins?

[Raskolnikov]

Mmm I try not to go too deep into townreads or leans in principle but it's pretty obvious here.

[Kmd4390]

Vote Count

Iconeum - 1 - Lovebird
Christopher - 1 - Greenliquid
Not_Mafia - 1 - Raskolnikov
Raskolnikov - 1 - BuJaber
GreenLiquid - 1 - Iconeum

Not Voting - Not_Mafia, Christopher, ZZZX, Major Minor

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to Lynch.

Deadline is April 2 at 1pm EST

Major Minor is being prodded

Christopher is also being prodded.

[Raskolnikov]

Christopher n_m and zzzx have been posting onsite and should really get involved here (major otoh looks like replace)
iconeum feels pretty mediocre but let's see how he responds about his thing, zzzx i kinda thought would say more but maybe he does today

[Raskolnikov]

okay this is getting ridiculous now lol

[Iconeum]

I agree that putting Lovebird in a scumpool, but in the same post mentioning that is has no reason to act like that if scum, is just weird.
Still like how he tries to steer conversation away, because that was leading us nowhere.

Rask town, a lot of effort into trying to keep discussion going/getting it started.

N_M is out of his town meta, where he usually votes his first scumread (very) early, so let's see how that develops.
Lovebird town vibes

ZZZX weak first post
GL early town read, too much effort in discussing townread/NAI with lovebird, doesn't feel like a scum play

Christopher afk


Bujabers contradiction is the most scummy thing so far imo, let's see where that leads us

VOTE: Bujaber

[BuJaber]

It's not a contradiction. It was just the chronoligical order of my thoughts.

The prediction comes first. Then I narrow it down to Raska/GL but just because I don't think love would do that if scum doesn't mean my scumpool becomes smaller. Just means I'd want love lynched last out of those 3.

[Iconeum]

It's not a contradiction. It was just the chronoligical order of my thoughts.

The prediction comes first. Then I narrow it down to Raska/GL but just because I don't think love would do that if scum doesn't mean my scumpool becomes smaller. Just means I'd want love lynched last out of those 3.

I understand the sequence, but I feel like a town would make that more clear in a post. It wasn't 'hardposted' yet, so you could easily redraw that post to express your actual feelings.

You also fail to explain the scumread on Raska/GL, while they have posted enough to work with. Not to mention that I townread Raska, so i don't see where that comes from.

[BuJaber]

Just telling you how it is. I'm not trying to get you to agree. You either do or don't but I tell you my thoughts and you tell me yours and so on and we end up with a conversation that leads to scum being caught.

Okay you want me to spill some secrets? Here's a small insight into how I play.
The prediction is based on WIFOM. That's usually how I narrow things down between a pool if there is nothing specific that pings me. (Such as this game). Since everyone is more or less a nullread I come up with a theory that makes sense to narrow down the field and split up the players into categories for further analysis.
In this game the theory is that 3 people all deciding to engage in a discussion -that imo is about something irrelevant or NAI- leads me to think one of them has to be doing it as scum to look like they're engaging with the town. Since one scum is doing this the other is likely to follow a different strategy so they will take a more passive approach. So 1 scum among {rask, GL, lovebird} and 1 scum among the rest.

Now as I follow the thread and engage with people I can see who is more likely to be this scum. Or if something happens or someone says something that makes me change my entire assumption I do that and start fresh. So the lovebird townlean makes it more likely in my mind that the scum is between rask and GL. I didn't really like Rask's openings either (my RVS vote was semi-serious) so I kept my vote there.


Not to mention that mathematically the odds of me being right are quite high in a game this small. So really it's not even an impressive prediction.

[BuJaber]

Disclosure: do not assume I always do this. Do not assume that doing this for me is AI. Do not assume that that is all I do in mafia games. It would be stupid of me to do so and stupid of you to assume so.

[Iconeum]

Do you, or do you not, scumread Rask. Explain plz.

[BuJaber]

Why is it so difficult to understand? Please help me. I run into this situation a lot. Is it my wording that is unclear? My english is bad? What is it?


I don't scumread rask. I don't townread rask.

Because of the whole process I explained above I forced myself to choose between rask and GL for whom to vote. I compared the 2 and decided rask is more likely to be the scum. Fact that it is the same person I voted for in RVS because his openings pinged me played a part in helping me decide.

[Christopher]

Do you, or do you not, scumread Rask. Explain plz.

Why is it so difficult to understand? Please help me. I run into this situation a lot. Is it my wording that is unclear? My english is bad? What is it?


I don't scumread rask. I don't townread rask.

Because of the whole process I explained above I forced myself to choose between rask and GL for whom to vote. I compared the 2 and decided rask is more likely to be the scum. Fact that it is the same person I voted for in RVS because his openings pinged me played a part in helping me decide.

BuJaber's opening is pretty standard. That, in and of itself, is NAI. Like he mentioned in #63, based on my recent experience it would be foolish to assume AI based on that.

[Raskolnikov]

The prediction is based on WIFOM. That's usually how I narrow things down between a pool if there is nothing specific that pings me. (Such as this game). Since everyone is more or less a nullread I come up with a theory that makes sense to narrow down the field and split up the players into categories for further analysis.
In this game the theory is that 3 people all deciding to engage in a discussion -that imo is about something irrelevant or NAI- leads me to think one of them has to be doing it as scum to look like they're engaging with the town. Since one scum is doing this the other is likely to follow a different strategy so they will take a more passive approach. So 1 scum among {rask, GL, lovebird} and 1 scum among the rest.

The thing is this just doesn't really follow. I've been in games where both scum just happen to be quiet or flake out and people were pretty much just wasting their time. But given you have it as theory/prediction I think you're kind of aware and I get the impression you're hoping for something less null-reading on the field too so I guess it's understandable.

[Raskolnikov]

Why did my opening ping you however?

[Raskolnikov]

@Christopher what do you think of the love, me, and GL interaction

[Christopher]

@Christopher what do you think of the love, me, and GL interaction

As for lovebird. What she did was definitely pro-town in what it accomplished, but as a tell I think it's complicated. For a newer player I would absolutely townread that because new scum do avoid attention and also aren't even necessarily aware they'd get townread for being pro-town/lamist. OTOH giving lovebird that would be careless, she has some scum games already here with competent level of play and is from offsite before that (not to put paranoia on her either though which would be unfair). That said the thought process itself adds up and 37 is some nuance at least so even if it's "graspy" I don't think it's shallow and don't feel it's scummy.

On the whole I agree with your 47.

I think Lovebird's 37 is pro-town, and I kind of respect the hunt. I see where he was going with it, but I read it more of an integration between RvS and day 1 as opposed to a genuine read. It's similar to how I read Bu's opening.

On the substantive anxious/bored vs checking profiles before-or-after the day started, it's NAI for me.

Sup

The more things seem to change, the more they stay the same

I want to focus on this from Not_Mafia. Even after we were moving on from RvS during the whole love read, Not_Mafia comes in with this? And then follows up with that? Hi Not_Mafia. How are you?

[Lovebird]

Vote iconeum pls.

[Not_Mafia]

@Christopher what do you think of the love, me, and GL interaction

As for lovebird. What she did was definitely pro-town in what it accomplished, but as a tell I think it's complicated. For a newer player I would absolutely townread that because new scum do avoid attention and also aren't even necessarily aware they'd get townread for being pro-town/lamist. OTOH giving lovebird that would be careless, she has some scum games already here with competent level of play and is from offsite before that (not to put paranoia on her either though which would be unfair). That said the thought process itself adds up and 37 is some nuance at least so even if it's "graspy" I don't think it's shallow and don't feel it's scummy.

On the whole I agree with your 47.

I think Lovebird's 37 is pro-town, and I kind of respect the hunt. I see where he was going with it, but I read it more of an integration between RvS and day 1 as opposed to a genuine read. It's similar to how I read Bu's opening.

On the substantive anxious/bored vs checking profiles before-or-after the day started, it's NAI for me.

Sup

The more things seem to change, the more they stay the same

I want to focus on this from Not_Mafia. Even after we were moving on from RvS during the whole love read, Not_Mafia comes in with this? And then follows up with that? Hi Not_Mafia. How are you?

Sup, I'm well, how are you?

[Raskolnikov]

Not mafia pretend this is a turbo and you have to dayvig someone and post a paragraph why in the next 20 minutes or you lose

[ZZZX]

ZZZX and not_mafia lose the entrance awards.

Who wins?

I

never

lose the award, I just give it away