Mini 2039: uPicketyPicketyPick Mafia Endgame

[northsidegal]

This is just too obvious and it doesn't quite glue together for me to be honest. Maybe one of them but the two...?

They don't feel like scum together. At least not together.

I don't think you should ever dismiss someone as scum for being "too obvious" unless you have really good reasons to supplant why someone as scum wouldn't be "too obvious". i had a game recently where someone recognized a huge number of reasons that i was putting forward for someone being scum, but then said "there's no way that he would make it that obvious if he were scum".

sometimes i think you should just keep it simple and see what happens – if you end up needing to search for a more deeply hidden scum later on, then you do so at the time, but not

before

lynching the people who you already recognize as likely to be scum.

[northsidegal]

oh, and i'm interested to hear why you think they're not aligned

[MariaR]

I'm gonna step back and see if nsg is scum or not because I can really not tell if it's just my pure dislike or scummness but I'll come to an answer.
Ta ta for now

[Nibbui]

Yeah NSG, I kinda got that in Open 720 and that's why I'm not stepping up and saying

"It's a trap folks!" yet.

I'll be very surprised though if the two of them are scum, I mean, it was too smooth. Yeah, that's the right word.

It's not "obvious". It's "smooth". We've been narrowing our lynch pool on them for quite some time but no reaction whatsoever. If the two of them are scum it's almost like they let us win.

That's what I don't like about it. Maria hasn't been necessarily scummy, she hasn't been towny and the same somewhat in a less extent applies to Kokichi.

It's different for example than when I said Brian was "too obvious". They aren't obvious because they are doing scummy things, they became "obvious" lynchs because other slots aren't in much danger of a lynch and got out of the PoE.

[northsidegal]

yeah, i haven't really been trying to give reasons for you being scum yet because i haven't been trying to convince people yet. right now my main focus is on clarifying my poe when it comes to the people i'm not all that convinced on: NK15, Elbirn, GE, maybe even firebringer.

by the way, just to clear this up in case anyone was confused – there are exactly two things that i am sheeping RC on that were not my own original thoughts: firebringer being town and elbirn being in consideration as scum. everything apart from that is my own reasoning. me and RC agreed on much of the rest, yes, but that doesn't mean that i'm just playing off of his reads. i'm not.

[Nibbui]

oh, and i'm interested to hear why you think they're not aligned

Woah, that's a bit of a tricky question.

But I would say it's kind of a "feeling"?

I opened Maria's ISO to check if I wasn't just delusional and although I'm not, it's not as implausible as I first thought.

Still, the way that she talks with him is pretty smooth, and the fact that they got narrowed down so smoothly without steeping up makes me feel that they aren't together...

I'm shaken now though...

Could we really just have narrowed 2/3 of the scum so easily and they didn't fight at all?

(assuming there is 3 scum and not just 2 of course)

[northsidegal]

i would argue that nk15, chibibear and nicorobin are all slots that could be called "obvious lynches". maaybe elbirn, too, although i'm still not sure if he's town. i think you can see both maria and kokichi trying to include them in the sort of public lynchpool today:

VOTE: Chibi
I could do NK15 Nico too

Spoiler: Kokichi

strangely enough i am actually coming around to nk15 town

which leaves me with the really interesting question of just what was going on with the wagons at the end of the night there?

Why nk15 town? His vote was obviously self saving and had no thought in it. as I just explained.

Nibbui, mutantdevle and Chibi I think are all very strongly town based on their own play, and I don't think anyone disagrees. Firebringer I trust that RC was right on. Nicorobin is town. I also think GE is lightly town based on his own play, but I admit that that's a read that I would be categorically likely to be wrong on.

this doesn't explain the scumreads. also why is nico town?

Ugh, we're running out of time.

I dunno, I think that I was slightly townleaning Kokichi earlier because I feel like scum wouldn't ultra focus on the minigames and ignore everything else like he did, but I'm not sure how valid a 'read' that really is. He actively avoided taking a stance on the 1v1 and during tonight he seems to be jumping on the most popular wagons, which I'm not too sure about but it's not necessarily scum motivated? If he really is town and telling the truth though, then we could be lynching a pretty big potential asset, but even if that’s the case, I'm not entirely sure that I'll ever trust him enough to allow him to use his ability without question. I don't think his claim is a lie as it’s so easily provable, but I reckon it's entirely possible that it is a half truth and there's more to it. At the moment my read on him is null at best.

If NK15's strange logic is characteristic of his play regardless of alignment then he's gonna be a pain to sort with any kind of certainty. His push on Nibbui is very interesting though, would scum start a push against a widely townread player? Or rather more importantly, does his push seem genuine? At the point where he started pushing Nibbui, there were already quite a few votes on him, I feel like if he were scum looking to get out of a lynch, he wouldn't decide to go for Nibbui of all people, I think that his push is more likely than not to be genuine.

Ughhhhhhhh I'm taking a stance here I guess, feels bad to just waste Elbirn’s ability.

VOTE: Kokichi

This is a weird post because she states that she's running out of time. Implying that the vote on me is because it's running out of time. Then explains that her read on me is null at best, and nk15 is scummy based on the push she feels like is not genuine. At the point of this vote, NK15 had 6 votes, and if she was serious about being upset about running out of time, I don't see why she would vote me in that moment when I had less votes and she null read me and scumread nk15. I feel this post needs an explanation and I'm surprised no one else pointed it out. NK15 flips scum, this would be my next lynch

keep in mind that i'm not calling them scum just for voting these players (at least, i'm not saying that right now), i'm just saying that if you imagine the world in which Maria/Kokichi are scum, you can see evidence that the narrowing of the lynchpool is something that they're fighting back against.

[northsidegal]

VOTE: Chibi
I could do NK15 Nico too

@Maria, could you explain this read? you literally haven't mentioned chibi once in your ISO before this.

you said you wanted to get your nico townread out before death. who else do you townread? who are your nullreads?

[Nibbui]

Ok you have a point NSG.

It's just that it was such weak pushes that I actually didn't register that much.

I didn't see you answer something though: Is your read on Nico coming from mod confirmed info? Or it's a personal read?

[northsidegal]

that second quote for kokichi was a bad example of what i was talking about, these are better ones:

Spoiler:

I don't know, but a scum flip by nico would be good. Considering she hasn't posted much, she could be scum.

she doesnt post much as scum

kokichi this is what i have seen in ur iso so far, tell me what u think is townie or if i got anything wrong:
> you talking about ur role or mechanics [NAI]
> you arguing with someone about meta [NAI]
> you voting but not talking about the reasons you scumread or are voting [NAI]

please tell me what i am missing that is townie or indicative of alignment. Cause I think you not reading or having any thoughts on players or having a thought process that seems to be developing thoughts is scummy

Okay, then what do you think about what i just posted. And I explained the reasons why I thin Nico is scum. She low posts and scum all the time, she did it when I was scum with her. She posts a lot as town and actually has emotion behind the posts.

[ChibiBear]

I don't have a huge amount of precedent behind it but in Witches' Halloween, RC's townreads that I agreed with all did turn out to be town iirc so I think that I'm can be a bit more confident on the townreads that we share.

Why am I suddenly an obvious lynch though? Can someone actually tell me what it is I've done that makes everyone suddenly think I'm no longer town? Because I know for a fact that I will be able to explain why I did what I did.

[northsidegal]

(assuming you were talking to me) i don't think you're an obvious lynch nor do i think you're scum, i was just saying that other people whom i believe could be scum seem to be making an effort to remove your status as a townread and chip away at the rapidly-forming townblock

[Nibbui]

It's less what you did and more what you didn't.

You've been playing fine and all in my opinion but not to the point where we look at you and say "yeah, she's out of her supposedly scum range".

At least for me it's that way.

[ChibiBear]

That's fair, playing 'fine' is already a million better than how I did in my last game. Gamma knows what I'm talking about

[Nibbui]

NSG, I'll clap for you if you're scum here you know?

I'm feeling the towniness coming from you. I'm not sure if I'm not just getting smoothly pocketed though.

[MariaR]

Ok I think nsg is town I just still hate her playstyle weeeee that was a nice break

[Nibbui]

Maria lfmao

who is scum then?

[northsidegal]

NSG, I'll clap for you if you're scum here you know?

I'm feeling the towniness coming from you. I'm not sure if I'm not just getting smoothly pocketed though.

haha, the day i manage to play a scumgame like this i'll let you know.

[MariaR]

I think one of the biggest issues people are having is they're taking people by the rep and using it as an excuse to not lynch them like.
Is Nk15 an easy lynch
Is Nico an easy lynch
Maybe even chibi an easy lynch.
Yes. So what? That doesn't stop them from having a chance at being scum and you shouldn't fault people for pushing that. I think it comes down to the reasoning why you push that player that's important.
Also to answer your question NSG Chibi is null as can be right now I was mostly voting for a reaction to see if they'd do anything to help and I'm not getting that.

[Nibbui]

NSG, I'll clap for you if you're scum here you know?

I'm feeling the towniness coming from you. I'm not sure if I'm not just getting smoothly pocketed though.

haha, the day i manage to play a scumgame like this i'll let you know.

I think it's not out of your scum range if you actually put effort and get motivated. That's one of the reasons I'm always afraid to call you town too early.

It's hard to get motivated to play as scum though for some people, I'm most of the times the same and I get you.

[northsidegal]

I think one of the biggest issues people are having is they're taking people by the rep and using it as an excuse to not lynch them like.
Is Nk15 an easy lynch
Is Nico an easy lynch
Maybe even chibi an easy lynch.
Yes. So what? That doesn't stop them from having a chance at being scum and you shouldn't fault people for pushing that. I think it comes down to the reasoning why you push that player that's important.

Who do you think is doing this? If you're going to say mutantdevle, I think the crux of his argument is that people's

only

reason for wanting to lynch nk15 is his lynchbait tendencies, and that people don't have any reasons outside of that.

Also to answer your question NSG Chibi is null as can be right now I was mostly voting for a reaction to see if they'd do anything to help and I'm not getting that.

Did you expect a reaction from your naked vote? If yes, what does it say to you that you didn't get one?

[MariaR]

You ask me who is scum but if I had a clear solid answer for that I'd be voting them. The closest would be NK15 but then again as I said no one gave me good reason either. When I pushed that people called it a 'playstyle thing' I don't think it is I think nk15 is scum. I wanted to see if I was bias because of his push on me but I just think he's scum.
VOTE: nk15]
Everyone else that isn't a tr is a shade of null that'd I'd mostly lynch on 'who do I think I can get less content out of.'

[ChibiBear]

I mean you didn't really give a reason for voting me, your lynch pool of me, NK15, and Nico didin't really follow on from your previous few posts either.

When I got back you were busy with NSG and Nibbui so I thought I'd wait until after that to ask you what's going on.

[Nibbui]

We're not really blaming you guys for pushing them.

I was pushing them myself.

The deal is that from where I see your participation is mostly only pushing them, and I don't see many points for a town read on both of you while I actually find some points to justify my town reads, town leans or at least trust other people judgement on other slots.

Maria, why should we town read you here? What would you be doing differently as scum?

[MariaR]

Who do you think is doing this? If you're going to say mutantdevle, I think the crux of his argument is that people's only reason for wanting to lynch nk15 is his lynchbait tendencies, and that people don't have any reasons outside of that.

I think you just did it and I think it's also in the back of some peoples minds just in general.
People only voted Nico at first because it was her scum meta.
People have a hard time voting nk15 because 'lynchbait'
Do people townread Chibi?
Why aren't people giving the same treatment to say Kokichi? He's an easy lynch atm too no? It's just overall blah.

Did you expect a reaction from your naked vote? If yes, what does it say to you that you didn't get one?

Yes because as you said that was the first time I ever even had Chibi in my iso so I wanted a 'wtf why is maria voting me' not getting anything tells me nothing.