Mini 2039: uPicketyPicketyPick Mafia Endgame
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Succinct Goon
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Not Known 15 Mafia Scum
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Ah yes.In post 3349, Succinct wrote:I didn't. 3336 isn't an unreasonable stance.
Then even if you follow that stance you should acknowledge these two things:
1.With the things being like this the chance of you hitting a pure town PT with Gamma Night 1 if these people announced it before is higher than 1/3.
The chance of a godfather being present if there is such a role that clears 3 town at once in more than 1/3 (if the PT is revealed which almost happens every game) is high.
2. If you follow that POE and there is a godfather in us four you lose.
Now, I am not advocating ignoring that POE - at least not initially. Even a Godfather means that there are two scum in the POE, at minimum(since the GF could also be in the POE, but I heavily doubt that).
About bussing - yes, that's entirely possible but there was a low risk in hammering me. At least I thought it but maybe... there is a possibility that hammering me would have lead to a kokichi/Nico lynch pool which if the POE is really true would have contained two scum and zero town. So yes maybe I am the only town in the POE. But... still a GF is likely; in my eyes. Yes I know your school of thought.
I follow something else:
If Town has seemingly way too much power then there is probably some catch. If the power seems normal then a GF is unlikely and has to get ignored(unless contradicting evidence comes). However, if the power(or swingyness with significant probability) is off the charts then the results should be taken with much more doubt.
Plus, of course, I know that 1/4 of a 3-scum POE is town...-
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Succinct Goon
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Similar math holds for chance of godfather. 12/13 chance Gamma's not godfather * 11/12 chance person he adds isn't godfather * 10/11 chance person he adds isn't godfather = 77% chance of no godfather recruited.In post 3346, mutantdevle wrote:
10/13 chance Gamma is town * 9/12 chance the first person he adds is town * 8/11 chance that the second person he adds is town = 42% chance that everyone in the PT is town * 3/11 chance that Nibbui picked someone in the PT = 11% chance Nibbui got the result * 7/8 chance that Nibbui even lived to tell anyone = 9% chance that this could have happened. That's based on the information we know alone. There's obviously going to have been other things that could have reduced the chances this could have happened. Eg. the chances that the person selected is in multiple PTs.In post 3343, Not Known 15 wrote:The likelyhood of a Night 1 triple Innocent is high enough(Gamma +2; and town are in the majority) in this setup.
Statistically, odds favor treating clears as real clears.-
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Not Known 15 Mafia Scum
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The chance is a bit higher since there are two more people who are checked. And because it's not 12/13 for the first person but 11/12.In post 3352, Succinct wrote:Statistically, odds favor treating clears as real clears.
And you should see that my approach favors using the POE until you get 2 scum.
In other news... we should use the POE anyways, at least until a certain point. Unless we determine that you are scum.-
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Kokichi Oma Survivor
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Kokichi Oma Survivor
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Elbirn Content Aficionado
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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Ooooh I likeyIn post 3314, Not Known 15 wrote:In post 3298, Succinct wrote:
I'll claim, then.In post 3290, northsidegal wrote:why do you consider all of that hood town
I have an ability which checks to see if my target is in any PT containing scum.
N1 I targeted RC. Nibbui, Elbirn, and myself initially believed I was redirected, but thanks to mutant we have reason to believe my initial RC target was accurate.
N2 I targeted Elbirn. mutantdevle's in the neighborhood now as well.
Both results were negative; no scum in any of target's PTs. This conftowns you and Gamma via RC, and mutant/Elbirn via Elbirn.
Ergo, we have a POE pool of four possible scum, and a mislynch to spare.
Did Nibbui leave any notes to why she picked RC?<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”-
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Gamma Emerald AnySurvivorAny
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Nice to see you!In post 3321, NicoRobin wrote:VOTE: Kokichi
This needs to go. I had bad experience with false ICs. Hint: they were mafia. Don't let this go.
You ready to conversate yet?<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”-
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ChibiBear Goon
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NicoRobin Mafia Scum
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No need to. Just lynch him.In post 3358, Gamma Emerald wrote:
Nice to see you!In post 3321, NicoRobin wrote:VOTE: Kokichi
This needs to go. I had bad experience with false ICs. Hint: they were mafia. Don't let this go.
You ready to conversate yet?-
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ChibiBear Goon
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Did NSG ever explain why she is so sure that Nico is town?
I have to admit, I'm having trouble following some of this, so I'm just gonna say my thoughts.
I was pretty confident that Nibbui was town and I don't see any reason to doubt Succinct's claim and PoE. As they pointed out, the ability seems really OP at first but if you really think about it, the success of it has been largely based on luck, and jjh did warn that the balance of this game could be swingy.
That being said, the possibility of there being redirections and a godfather are very real, so I'd like to confirm a few things before I make a decision to make sure I have all the right info. Correct me if I'm wrong here.
Succinct, if you don't mind answering, why did you initially think you were redirected on N1? And how did mutant confirm that you weren't redirected? Also, if your target is not in a PT, would you get a different result, like 'no result' rather than a positive or a negative?
So there is at most 1 scum out of Gamma/NSG/Elbirn/Mutant assuming no redirections, and this is only possible if they are a godfather and the chances of that seem fairly low.
If we assume Succinct is town and telling the truth, that leaves the group of me/Kokichi/Nico/NK15 containing at least 2 scum, if not all 3.
The important part is assuming no redirections though, if we're wrong on that then we're in trouble.
I still think that NSG is town so if she can give a really good reason that Nico is town, I'll reconsider things, but otherwise I think the lynching order should be Kokichi=Nico->NK15, and hopefully that's all 3.Boop.-
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mutantdevle Mafia Scum
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To get into the PT we are in you need to target someone that you didn't intend to. Since Nibbui was added to the PT as a result of N1, it was a fair assumption that they were redirected. However, I also experienced something that Nibbui experienced when being added to the PT that is either the reason we were added or one hell of a coincidence. From that, we can then conclude that there is no redirector in this setup otherwise there would be more people in the PT.In post 3361, ChibiBear wrote:Succinct, if you don't mind answering, why did you initially think you were redirected on N1? And how did mutant confirm that you weren't redirected?I mostly just lurk now.-
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Elbirn Content Aficionado
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Mutant is correct. The only way theres a straight up redirector at this point is if they've chosen not to use their ability yet this game for whatever reason. I'll note that its possibly someones quest or minigame role and they haven't unlocked it yet I suppose, but now we're straying off topic. The point is, so far we can confirm that no one has used redirection thus farIn post 3362, mutantdevle wrote:
To get into the PT we are in you need to target someone that you didn't intend to. Since Nibbui was added to the PT as a result of N1, it was a fair assumption that they were redirected. However, I also experienced something that Nibbui experienced when being added to the PT that is either the reason we were added or one hell of a coincidence. From that, we can then conclude that there is no redirector in this setup otherwise there would be more people in the PT.In post 3361, ChibiBear wrote:Succinct, if you don't mind answering, why did you initially think you were redirected on N1? And how did mutant confirm that you weren't redirected?-
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Not Known 15 Mafia Scum
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Which is pretty good. Is someone else able to read Succinct?In post 3363, Elbirn wrote:Mutant is correct. The only way theres a straight up redirector at this point is if they've chosen not to use their ability yet this game for whatever reason. I'll note that its possibly someones quest or minigame role and they haven't unlocked it yet I suppose, but now we're straying off topic. The point is, so far we can confirm that no one has used redirection thus far
Succinct being town and the redirector being out of the way means that we have a POE of 4 for two scum(which includes me). So that would be good - we mislynched twice and I don't know which powers the enemies got.-
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Elbirn Content Aficionado
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I apparently can't. My trust in succinct is 100% a hail mary pass on him not being level 9000 galaxy brain scum plays and will rely entirely on us actually catching scum today, basically. If theres 3 scum, we should be in lylo (mylo?) tomorrow. I'd much rather avoid that.In post 3364, Not Known 15 wrote: Which is pretty good. Is someone else able to read Succinct?
Succinct being town and the redirector being out of the way means that we have a POE of 4 for two scum(which includes me). So that would be good - we mislynched twice and I don't know which powers the enemies got.-
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Elbirn Content Aficionado
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Succinct Goon
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Before N1's end, Nibbui's iso's as accessible to you as it is to me and no less readable.In post 3357, Gamma Emerald wrote:Did Nibbui leave any notes to why she picked RC?
After N1's end,In post 2625, Nibbui wrote:@Gamma was NSG actively engaging Radiant on the hood?In post 2634, Nibbui wrote:spicy, but Radiant said as well that people wouldn't be able to target NSG. I can be wrong here but since you can't be night killed, it woudn't be anti-town to reveal a bit more of that role right? It's a bit weird for a town role to be honest, but I only have a very low-resolution idea of it.In post 2640, Nibbui wrote:But for example, he said that you couldn't be investigated for the rest of the game independent of him being alive or not NSG? Is that due to Radiant or a third party as well? Or is that part of your own role?In post 2647, Nibbui wrote:
because hers seemed to be a primary role, and added to the fact of being unkillable, RC said not even investigative roles could target her. As a whole her role is pretty different from yours, and you seemed to need a PT to activate it as well.In post 2644, MariaR wrote:
Why do you find hers weird but not mine.In post 2634, Nibbui wrote:spicy, but Radiant said as well that people wouldn't be able to target NSG. I can be wrong here but since you can't be night killed, it woudn't be anti-town to reveal a bit more of that role right? It's a bit weird for a town role to be honest, but I only have a very low-resolution idea of it.In post 2651, Nibbui wrote:MariaR, who is in your hood anyway? It would help at solving the game.
Plus PT,In post 3070, Nibbui wrote:The reason I was worried with being redirected on night and that was the first thing I talked on the hood with Elbirn is because in night 1 while the thread was open, Elbirn said to Radiant that they would have "some night interactions" and confirmed that it wasn't a vig. I doubt any investigative would claim that so openly therefore I thought he meant he was a redirector or something (not sure how these roles are called really), and I got a weird-mysterious-random night action that isn't part of my original role, and wondered if someone had tried to unlock someone else second role and eventually got redirected to me since I explicity told that I didn't want mine unlocked. (and I don't think my second role is actually unlocked? idk what the hell was the random NA).
I'm only explaining because I can see my replacement coming here, Elbirn making his tinfoil case whatever it may be, and my replacement getting lynched because he couldn't explain why I had behaved like I did in the hood, and it would be even more shitty since for anyone that knows how I play, I've been very townie here.
That's all I can find; the knowledge's lost to Nibbui.In post 3210, Succinct wrote:3: Asks what Elbirn meant by having night interactions with Elbirn; states role isn't important (Nibbui was mistaken), targeted RC, hypothesized Firebringer did, wanted it explained.
6: Nibbui said it was obvious conclusion off of "night actions", once Elbirn spoke. Nibbui noted the weirdness of their night action, wondering if it was redirection; asked to know who they were redirected to, promising it'd be useful.
10: Nibbui said everything's confusing; refused to nod/deny deductions, but stated Elbirn was close. (It's debatable.)
To be added to the PT, you must target someone you didn't intend. Logical initial conclusion's redirector role. However, mutant's joining situation suggested otherwise, for reasons best left undisclosed.In post 3361, ChibiBear wrote:Succinct, if you don't mind answering, why did you initially think you were redirected on N1? And how did mutant confirm that you weren't redirected?
I only get 'target has no scum in PTs' or 'target has scum in PTs'; a player with none's automatically the former.In post 3361, ChibiBear wrote:Also, if your target is not in a PT, would you get a different result, like 'no result' rather than a positive or a negative?
Several. Caught Nibbui's/my soft inno-claim, FB's roleclaim, Elbirn frameup, FB was obvtown, etc. Impossible to narrow down.In post 3366, Elbirn wrote:Anybody have any ideas why scum shoots firebringer last night?-
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jjh927 Survivor
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Elbirn Content Aficionado
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Can you elaborate re:soft inno claim? I didnt see this and am only now having the realization that if RC was in a pt with fb then you/nibbui would have had an inno on him. I'll check myself but if you have a post link to a crumb..In post 3367, Succinct wrote:
Several. Caught Nibbui's/my soft inno-claim, FB's roleclaim, Elbirn frameup, FB was obvtown, etc. Impossible to narrow down.In post 3366, Elbirn wrote:Anybody have any ideas why scum shoots firebringer last night?-
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Elbirn Content Aficionado
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Succinct, I see the crumbs in your 3170 and 3210 for the record. But I wanna ask about this
1. Why was kokichi an equal townread to someone you had an inno on?In post 3163, Succinct wrote:
Why was this excluded?In post 2377, NicoRobin wrote:I am a bodyguard.
Doubtful.In post 2382, NicoRobin wrote:
Well, I didn't do it.In post 2380, mutantdevle wrote:Nico did you do that yourself or did someone else prevent your lynch?
Kokichi Oma = Firebringer> mutantdevle > Chibibear > Not Known 15>northsidegal>NicoRobin = MariaR>Gamma Emerald >Elbirn
Elbirn read takes explaining.
Manipulative neighborhood + RC's 2399 + Elbirn's posting where I've read. Plus current.
2. Wasnt gamma in a PT with RC and NSG N1? And therefore also clear?-
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Succinct Goon
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Disappointed? Must mean my entry didn't win.In post 3368, jjh927 wrote:I'll sort out the minigame tomorrow but I'm just gonna say I'm disappointed
Nibbui softed inno before I did; I continued, e.g. 3170.In post 3369, Elbirn wrote:Can you elaborate re:soft inno claim? I didnt see this and am only now having the realization that if RC was in a pt with fb then you/nibbui would have had an inno on him. I'll check myself but if you have a post link to a crumb..
At time, wasn't aware of Gamma/nsg/RC hood, and thought I was redirected.In post 3370, Elbirn wrote:Succinct, I see the crumbs in your 3170 and 3210 for the record. But I wanna ask about this
1. Why was kokichi an equal townread to someone you had an inno on?In post 3163, Succinct wrote:
Why was this excluded?In post 2377, NicoRobin wrote:I am a bodyguard.
Doubtful.In post 2382, NicoRobin wrote:
Well, I didn't do it.In post 2380, mutantdevle wrote:Nico did you do that yourself or did someone else prevent your lynch?
Kokichi Oma = Firebringer> mutantdevle > Chibibear > Not Known 15>northsidegal>NicoRobin = MariaR>Gamma Emerald >Elbirn
Elbirn read takes explaining.
Manipulative neighborhood + RC's 2399 + Elbirn's posting where I've read. Plus current.
2. Wasnt gamma in a PT with RC and NSG N1? And therefore also clear?-
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Kokichi Oma Survivor
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northsidegal Survivor
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Kokichi Oma Survivor
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