Mini 2065 - Access Point [Endgame]

[DrDolittle]

VOTE: drdo
I dont see why its needed that they claim

[DrDolittle]

That's why if suicide vig hides their role, they could potentially get nk and more regular town can be sent to access point

[DrDolittle]

Hmmm I don't know if its trivial just by virtue of the designer

[DrDolittle]

Interesting. Even if the first vig hits town?

[DrDolittle]

Like I don't see the point of using the vig role since scummy players are not making it to access point anyways

[DrDolittle]

If both vig hits town we lose dude

[DrDolittle]

? so by that logic the person pushing is not necessary scum

[DrDolittle]

And this suicide vig role can only be used once

[DrDolittle]

It doesnt. All I'm saying is that we are not using both vig shots today on that reason. In fact i say we use at most 1,and the other one acts as nk bait or IC

[DrDolittle]

Even as Ic it's much stronger when activated. So giving the second vig that power to decide when to out himself is much betbettbetbettebetbettbetbetter for town

[DrDolittle]

Shit sorry crappy phone keyboard

[DrDolittle]

Yeah

[DrDolittle]

It's relevant in baiting the NK. I think out fundamental disagreement is that you think you'll nab the team to the access point day 1 while i think we should pick members a day at a time

[DrDolittle]

and as an aside treating the second 'dayvig target' as confirmed scum and ignoring them is a strictly better play than actually shooting a second time after town has been shot.

We agree on this front

[DrDolittle]

Trivially yes. Since day 2 we have more information than day 1

[DrDolittle]

And that's how the game will be played despite you not seeing it

[DrDolittle]

Let's say day 1 we agree on drdo and rc being town. We send drdo. Day 2 Rc is still alive. Then we need to have a conversation about sending rc. Yeah agree my reads are wrong is pretty standard, but I think i have a relatively good grasp of mechanics

[DrDolittle]

Not sure if these two cases directly translate, rc

[DrDolittle]

your argument hinges upon there being no drawbacks in locking down who to send to the access point asap. this is strongly conditional that the 3 people picked have no mafia in there.

instead if town locks down one person a day, in addition to be information advantage (however little it is) it will be much harder for mafia to figure out who to nk and which way town will swing the next day. (whereas if your 3 pick is wrong, then it's very easy for mafia to determine who to kill) It also gives town flexibility moving forward.

the drawback however, is that mafia share of the alive population is increased when making day 2 decision. but that's just marginal.

now I'm not advocating that we just pick a guy and dilly our thumbs and do nothing, but I don't think that locking down three players by day 1 is the correct play.

[DrDolittle]

then you ask, well drdo, why does this matter at all?

well it matters in that given your strategy, vigs out themselves immediately. Given mine, vigs don't. They out themselves if they are pretty town AND the one being sent to the access point OR they/town wants them to do the "is this push scum motivated" check.

[DrDolittle]

I do agree that your quickhammer thing is a cause for concern. but that's pretty easy to solve. Instead of voting, town can just fos until a majority decision, then the majority'd guy says, hey no, I'm vig.

[DrDolittle]

we're doing things my way. if I have to keep fighting you to make that happen I'm just treating your slot like scum the rest of the game and ignoring you.

its not even up to you to decide. it's up to the vig whether they want to out themsevles.

I'm just laying out the available options as guidance. people are free to take or ignore.

[DrDolittle]

not even fighting you lol - this is nothing but a strategy discussion rn

[DrDolittle]

you guys are being bad players here if you don't acknowledge the fact that dictating 3 players by day 1 has the extraordinarily big fallback of 1 of them is scum. it will make a scum nk-decision straight foward, and can easily propel to lylo loss since the strategy essentially means whoever is sent third should be be most likely scum.

@TGP reactions to this?

that's why rc's strategy makes me extremely leery, since if scum is confident enough that they can propel 1 member onto the 3 member town block, they would strongly advocate for the strategy.

as i said before, look @rc i respect your scumhunt ability a lot, but I haven't seen you do any pure mechanics play. plus the fact that you are taking this issue lightly makes me hesitant.

[DrDolittle]

DDL being wrong is pretty standard for you but I'm not used to you obstinately standing in the way of the correct play. Do you think that your understanding of mafia strategy is better than mine? Do you think that my suggestion is scum motivated?

Why do this?

so I guess yeah, I can see your suggestion be scum motivated, actually.

[DrDolittle]

@mod v/la 3 days till I sort my life out

[DrDolittle]

Tbh now that we re following Rc s strats, should go all the way and place far more weight on what the vigs reads are

[DrDolittle]

i replaced in when i really do not have the time to play a game because i think this setup is particularly suited to me. ideally i would get sent today and thus wouldn't have to be around for the rest of the game until a theoretical lylo, although failing that i imagine that i'd also just get killed night one and similarly be out pretty quickly.

So basically you were able to town read vedith after 3 posts?

[DrDolittle]

I'm null against insomnia. He calls rc and me town, but votes nsg instead. But hes pretty clueless with 210 looks town

[DrDolittle]

I'm null against insomnia. He calls rc and me town, but votes nsg instead. But hes pretty clueless with 210 looks town

Might want to re-read my ISO and let me know where I voted nsg?

shhhh you didn't see anything 222

I made a mistake sorry

[DrDolittle]

In your strat rc does the shooting vig shoot day 1?

[DrDolittle]

Come on. We made a plan. Let's follow it through.

[DrDolittle]

If you pick a third player, day vig shoots you. Then we confirm the 3 person town block exactly as you said.

But this is also exactly what I would say as scum me, so.

[DrDolittle]

I
Am
Just
Following
The
Consensus
Strategy

[DrDolittle]

If anyone else is on the discussion of getting vig shot, then I'd also ask them for their top 3 reads.

[DrDolittle]

If I were town, I'd be happy since I'm following my own mechanical strategy to a win. If i were scum I'd be a but nervous but it would be exhilarating to try to talk my way out of getting shot

[DrDolittle]

In short, quite fun. Although I probably would not enjoy the drama with nsg tbh

[DrDolittle]

I might have misunderstood what "where I'm standing" means.

I mean no one has proposed dayvigging anyone yet, so I dont see why the question relevant?

Do you think it's a poor idea?

[DrDolittle]

Like if you don't want to play with me

Don't play with me?

Where do you even get this conclusion from?

[DrDolittle]

Because I'm not advocating strongly for anyone to go to the AP

[DrDolittle]

the point of the vig role is to confirm that if someone is hard pushing for an individual to reach access point that they're not a scumbuddy.

All the way from page 1

[DrDolittle]

Yes! Of course!

[DrDolittle]

Because that's the plan? Like if NSG really pushed you then we could day vig her to confirm you to the AP?

[DrDolittle]

Is this easier for you?

What do you mean?

[DrDolittle]

In one scenario where dayvig is not required I think is if 3 or more people strongly push a player to go to the AP, since theres only 3 scum

[DrDolittle]

Oh I see what you mean now. You think I'm arguing to vig you cause I'm antagonized by you. Completely honest, this hasn't even crossed my mind. That's why your questions didnt make any sense on my end

[DrDolittle]

Wow now I feel really bad. I'm sorry about that.

[DrDolittle]

VOTE: NSG
I'm feeling good about this vote. NSG looks town to me. I'm strongly considering killing Insomnia - his posts look a lot like fluff to me.

VOTE: nsg

[DrDolittle]

I want to be sent to the AP as well. What do you think about that ruirui

[DrDolittle]

your certainty that insomina is town makes me more hesitant that he is in fact town.

where does your reads come from

[DrDolittle]

how many games have you played with insomnia/scum reading

[DrDolittle]

VOTE: drdo
You know what I want lion to check in.
Before that i'm still the best person to send to AP.

[DrDolittle]

@RCE fmpov statement for sure

@Insomia: I mildly town read Rui but would not sent him to AP by far. And it's not that roster has no explanation that gives me hesitation, but rather his certainty when there's not a lot to be certain about.

[DrDolittle]

Stick to the strategy (tm)
No one is vigging no one here yet

[DrDolittle]

Like I think you're town RC. But I'm not going to bank all my chips on you being town, rather than an NSG + RC scum-pairing... although unlikely actually by the style of vedith replace.

Even so, this is a nonzero chance of losing this perfectly winnable game, so I understand the perspective that Insomnia is coming from.

[DrDolittle]

Is there literally no one that's universally town read? I rather send someone that is third on everyone's town list than first on 1/2 of everyone's town list

[DrDolittle]

DrDo, do you agree with my vig theory and why RC should be shot day two?

No because people flip at the end. But I don't think we send both RC and NSG as of right now.

[DrDolittle]

yeah and I agree with that

[DrDolittle]

Are you joking me? You want him to send the both of his scum buddies on AP and the post-flip is what matters to you? When RC is the only scum flip? Lmao

who's the second scum buddy you think, insomnia

[DrDolittle]

what about rce? I'm Ok with RCE... he seems to be pretty widely townread by everyone

[DrDolittle]

What changed your mind?

I like this question. In this scenario, I nullread you, town read RC. Now TGP voted you. I said, I could follow conf town as according to plan. But then I realized conf town doesn't have to be right. In fact I trust in myself (100 percent that I'm town), but the issue is I might not be able to rally enough support to send myself to AP.

However, if GL also thought you were town, that's two conf town voices that I can listen to, and barring some odd co-variation, the likelihood that both of them are wrong is more unlikely, so I'm holding off sending you to AP unless GL also agrees that you are town.

My reads? I have town read on RC and RCE and DT. but none of them enough that I would bet the game on them (i.e. let them dictate 2 AP sends)

[DrDolittle]

You shouldn't need to listen to RC to see that I'm town.

I strongly agree with this statement. I hope that I warm up and see you as town as well independent of RC and TGP

[DrDolittle]

I don't see anything in your posts that screams yes nsg is town to me. one point for you is that you are in fact posting which you don't do as scum

[DrDolittle]

I'm actually pretty interested in sitting on this as well - it's not that different from my plan in 314 before it was shot down.

[DrDolittle]

but note this updated plan is very different from the originial shoot rc send nsg and heavily dependent on rc pushing a second person strongly into AP

[DrDolittle]

I don't like 680 imo. it doesn't answer a very valid question.

its not infalliable. otherwise fg is a terrible game designer which he is not. but I can see it being a genuinely thought out strategy

[DrDolittle]

Whatever happened to just sending a consensus townread?

That's the ideal case right? Let's send 3 consensus townies. But insomnia is clearly talking about what happens when there's a difference in opinion.

Now for example, if instead DDL pushes a AP guy instead of RC in day 2, I still think DDL should be shot to support that the push is in good faith

[DrDolittle]

680 doesn't answer why the plan is bad. 687 answers it... kind of tangentially

[DrDolittle]

wonder if we should send RC and insomnia and let them duke it out in lylo lol. the game would then clear itself if both were town. I don't think both are scum

i actually leantown on insomnia after this exchange.

[DrDolittle]

Ddl if you had to choose one person as a rep, and this rep is the person that got to choose who they wanted to be in the AP. Who would you choose?

If I can choose me, then I choose me to pick me.
If I can't choose me, I pick whoever will pick me.
If no one will pick me, I will choose one of the conf vigs.

[DrDolittle]

Follow up, the only reason I wouldnt pick the vigs is if I believe RC's reads are far more accurate than that of the vigs.

[DrDolittle]

i didn't answer it as a riddle

[DrDolittle]

Insomnia's plan is, to prevent A, we should do B. Then he asks, is B a good plan against A. Your response in 666 is A will never happen, therefore we don't need B. Here might be dicey, but I don't think it's a full answer.

i wonder if i'll ever get any credit around here?

What do you mean?

[DrDolittle]

i mean, i always try to stay humble, but i think i'm fairly decent. pretty good, even, at least looking at the numbers when it comes to my won games.

nobody else seems to think so.

I think the majority of the site thinks you are an excellent player. and this game included?

[DrDolittle]

i understand this completely. what i'm saying is that i am town if rc flips town and i am town if rc does not flip town. shooting rc might make some people more comfortable with the idea that i'm town, but i don't think it should be necessary.

that's rife with conf bias. you can say you are town but we don't know it?

[DrDolittle]

i don't get that feeling. maybe that's just me, though.

actually I don't think I played a town game with you so I'm just going along with what other people say

[DrDolittle]

my response is that A will never happen because i know it to be the case. even still, i think you're underrepresenting what i said – my point is also one of opportunity cost. i believe RC to be town, so the opportunity cost of shooting him to confirm me as town (something which i believe to be unnecessary given what is gained) is that we aren't shooting someone whom i believe could be scum.

Hi!

I really like your opportunity cost argument.

Allow me to propose a modification? Day 1 someone from consensus gets sent (if its you ignore the rest). Hopefully we can reach it. Day 2, if not everyone agrees on you being town (which I hope is not true) and RC is still advocating, then you get sent. Day 3, if RC advocates for someone else, then shoot to confirm. By Day 3, there is no opportunity cost anymore since this part of the game ends.

Is that acceptable to you?

[DrDolittle]

Realistically speaking, he's probably getting nkd if he's town. If he's not getting nkd, that should even raise more suspicion on him being scum. With him leading town like he is, he presents a threat to scum. The whole idea of my plan revolved around RC staying alive, which would raise his percentage of being scum.

This is stupid and rife to WIFOM suggestions

[DrDolittle]

To be completely honestly we should play the game and solve normally, especially on day 1. If we can reach a consensus (I feel like Im beating a dead horse here), I'll be far more confortable. And we dont need to breach this unsavory topic of policy-copping strong players

[DrDolittle]

i understand this completely. what i'm saying is that i am town if rc flips town and i am town if rc does not flip town. shooting rc might make some people more comfortable with the idea that i'm town, but i don't think it should be necessary.

that's rife with conf bias. you can say you are town but we don't know it?

It's not confirmation bias to state something which I know to be factually correct.

Yes, it's true that nobody

knows

that I'm town, just the same for anyone else. That's true anywhere in mafia? Like, consider this: are you saying that suddenly people will

know

that I'm town if RC is town? If the answer is yes, then what I have to tell you is that it isn't by some secret technique that RC can read me – i fully believe that anyone who looks at my scum games could come to the same conclusion, even if, say, they only looked at the literal numbers of how much i posted. If the answer is no, then we're in the same position as when we started, and for what gained?

i don't get that feeling. maybe that's just me, though.

actually I don't think I played a town game with you so I'm just going along with what other people say

you've played a scumgame with me, though. any thoughts on that? i know you already said once that i'm posting here more than i have there (while i'm on v/la right now.. hmm...)

No but the odds are better. Just a quick numeric example. If I'm only 60 percent sure that you are town, and completely null on RC. But RC has a 99 percent certainty that you are town and he reads you well. Then my percentage would be boosted to high 90 percent with an RC flip.

Let me get this in plain words: are you using the creature defense to try to convince me: it's obvious my scum game is pretty weak. im playing strong handed right now so you should be convinced I am town. (yes no suffices)

[DrDolittle]

how about you vote me instead insomnia

[DrDolittle]

or at least give a list of consensus reads.

[DrDolittle]

i need to sleep on this nsg but our interaction here I think pushes me to more townreading you this game.

[DrDolittle]

can you give me a one liner of the largest reason i should be townreading you