Newbie 617 (Over!)

[Darox]

Show me where I convinced everyone to follow me?

Show me instances of town following me?

If anything, your attack has made me believe you're protown, because I think scum would have picked someone who has been under fire, or one of the people still AWOL as an easy lynch target.

Oh and, you've said lots about me, but whats your status on the armlx/mike connection and on Bazza?

Votecount:

Bazza [2] (Armlx, Darox)
Clammy [1] (Angelmouse)
Qman [1] (caf19)
Armlx [1] (Bazza)
Darox [1] (Clammy)

Not Voting [3] (Darox, Brandi, Qman)

If anyone needs a prod, feel free to ask.

[clammy]

I don't think my position with armlx/mike has changed much since my #73. I will, however, reserve that comment for now as i read the half a game that's happened since then in one block and may have missed a thing or two that a re-read will reveal. Same reason for the current reserve on Bazza. Entertaining and not feeling great but wanted to make the commitment i said i would to be back today.

[caf19]

I don't like people trying to direct our D2 and D3 lynches either, but apart from that I think Darox has generally looked pro-town.

For me, the crucial question is... do we believe armlx's testimony to Mike-zim's innocence? It's a bizarre situation for me, I've never seen a player breadcrumb a power role for somebody else before

Personally, notwithstanding the relative inactivity of Qman and angelmouse (who need to post more today so we can form a proper opinion of them), I'd be happy with a lynch of either mike or Bazza.

Bazza: he acceptably answered a lot of my suspicions expressed in 76, but he subsequently went on to look scummy again. Here are the relevant quotations:

The connotations of a vote are more severe, they may not be important at this point in the game, but it suggests that you VERY strongly suspect the person in question (unless it's a random vote)

Doesn't an HoS also express very strong suspicion? I still think there's a possibility that the "holding off on votes" schtick was just a ploy to seem like you put a lot of consideration into your suspicions and are pro-town. Especially considering your vote on armlx in 115, accompanied with this reasoning:

As for Armix i'm finding him more suspicious, i explained the reason for my FoS, he never placed a rebutal yet still says it was suspicious....he seems to be inflating artguments...and is moving his vote, because he sees that a bandwagon may be about to begin.

Personally, i think that Armix knows Mike-zim is a townie and is supporting him. The reason he ius doing this is it will make him look pro-townie on Day2.

That's hardly more than the case you had on Mike-zim in 72 and 78 - in fact, it's probably less. Yet you considered this to be enough for a vote, but not the case on Mike? Seems like you're just getting desperate and trying to save your own skin.

Mike-zim: not a load of contribution, and when he does, infrequently lapses into rather facile and meaningless attempts at scumhunting, such as:

I must say i am a little suspicious of Bazza and armlx but that is because they are going at it so hard. It would be nice to see what other players who havent posted much think.

"Going at it so hard" isn't really a reason to suspect anyone. I mean, eagerness and verbosity are more attributes of people's personalities, rather than scumtells. He's also taking the 'cautiousness' thing a bit too far - only having minor suspicions after 117 posts is a little extreme, I think.

Of the two, I'd say Bazza takes number 1 spot for me. Mike has a couple of redeeming features that Bazza doesn't have. Firstly, there's a possible 'noob town' explanation, and secondly, though I don't really see or agree with armlx's declaration of a town-tell, I feel that pushing for mike's lynch might be somewhat as a reaction to armlx's confirmation.

I'm not voting for now, as Bazza has a couple of votes already and I don't want to form a large or irreversible wagon (we have about 12 RL days left in this game day, and the lynch is generally irreversibly decided a few days before deadline) without Qman and angelmouse both returning to give their opinions. Feel free to respond to this, everyone.

[angelmouse]

I'm here, but mega busy. Will re-read over these arguments over my lunch, but so far nothing striking out as vote worth, but reading over it might throw something up.

Unvote

since we are out of that stage.

[armlx]

1) Clammy, I did in fact see Darox's attempt to set up 2 lynches, however I felt it would be better to deal with tomorrow/later when its easier to see how terrible it is.

2) Bazza's appeal to emotion (the "Your vote is wrong" thing) just makes me like my vote more.

[angelmouse]

Firstly

armlx-Mike thing.

Now i got very early on at what armlx was hinting at and i think the matter should have been left alone from there. Those that forced armlx's hand, so to speak, are those that i feel are much more suspicious at the moment than either of these two. Mike was over eager, something that happens in many newbie games, and is a complete null tell on the scum front. If armlx and mike are scum partners then linking themselves on page 2 is extremely dangerous play something i know armlx wouldn't do. The only possible avenue i can see that links either one as scum is armlx since he could be pairing himself up with mike so if he dies and is confirmed town armlx looks more town, but I don't believe this at this point. Further time and that might change, but I don't find armlx overly scummy just now. I also don't find mike scummy at the moment at all, just a complete novice finding his feet. Those that forced this issue between them should be looked at in more detail.

Brandi

I didn't like the first post. It

may

have been random, yes, but i found the reasoning too strong for this. It was far too obvious a reaction from someone that was scum. that said I gave her the benefit of the doubt and her posts since leed me to belive this is just her and her style, although it will stick in my mind later on. Also she pushed the mike-armlx thing something i don't like. Points out that i am missing in action. Sorry for this, life can just get in the way sometimes. I didn't have the time to sit properly down and re-read everything, which i am doing now. again this is a null tell, but I'm not too found of throwing suspicion on players that haven't properly made their mark on the game. Lurking is dangerious play, but not necessarily scum tactic, but lurking in plain site is. She has now posted her suspicions list as well. Overall i get a neutral feel from her. Not enough to say pro-town and not enough to say scum either.

Had to go back to work. have a free evening tonight so will follow up with everyone else.

[Brandi]

Now i got very early on at what armlx was hinting at and i think the matter should have been left alone from there.

Those that forced armlx's hand, so to speak, are those that i feel are much more suspicious at the moment than either of these two.

So you are saying that asking for explanations for motives from other players is anti-town? EXCUSE ME? Obviously if someone states something and then refuses to give a reason for it, people are going to ask questions. There is NO way around it and it should be EXPECTED. You DO realize that this is a

newbie

game right? YOU may have the experience necessary to easily detect reasonings without them being given, but a lot of us do not. I'm sorry if I'm coming off as a bit harsh in tone, but I'm completely appalled at the audacity of those statements.

I didn't like the first post. It may have been random, yes, but i found the reasoning too strong for this.

"It may have

been random

had no reasoning, but the reasoning was too strong"

Lets take a look at the random vote 1 VS random vote 2.

vote: Brandi was reading you were recently a cop

*

, obvscum

**

Vote: mike-zim for laughing maniacally about the role he recieved

*

. (Only scum would do such a thing!)

**

*

= random/silly/non-serious reasoning

**

= sarcastically claiming it to be an obvious scum tell.

Also, just for kicks lets throw in the third comment.

Vote: Bazza cause Bazza is Australian slang.

*

I also think Mike is acting rather sinister. You know they must be evil if they have a mad scientist laugh!

In conclusion, its obvious. Bringing it up is just beating a dead, invalid point. But anyway, there are more important things to point out, such as this:

I'm not too found of throwing suspicion on players that haven't properly made their mark on the game.

Obvious misrepresentation. Please point out where I attempted to throw suspicion on the inactive players for their inactivity. I, just like many others, just pointed out that the game was in need of more participation from yourself and Q-man.

I did point out a minor,

POSSIBLE

suspicion in regards to you, but it had NOTHING to do with your

inactivity.

It had everything to do with your previous statements.

Anyway, I'm glad you came and gave your input on something. I'm a bit surprised Q-man hasn't posted yet, when he already stated that he would have made a post by the first.

I'm going to end this post for now, but I do want to address other things that have been said by other people. I'll do that in another post when I have time.

[Brandi]

I swear i am townie, voting for me is a mistake.

I really, really don't like that appeal.

Same here, Darox. =/

Very bad move Bazza. You claim to be an experienced player, yet you use the obvious logical fallacy of an appeal to emotion. If you want others to regard you as a townie, statements such as this are a major way to screw things up for you. Even if you are pro-town, it will be hard to take you seriously after something like this. Bazza, I'd like for you to explain your appeal to emotion, and why you thought it was necessary.

@Mike-Zim.

You don't have to technically be aggressive to not be submissive. I agree that this is very exciting, but I'd think that it would be more exciting to try and join in on the action than to just sit on the side lines and cheer. Also, not everyone has someone actively protecting them on a hunch like what is happening for you, you shouldn't use such as a crutch to not put serious input. Not saying that you haven't been contributing, just putting that out there for future reference.

Moving on..

I find it odd that that in regards to what Darox said here:

For now, I am fine with Mike and armlx both staying alive today, but if I don't hear what armlx has to say on the matter day 2 then I think we should lynch both of them, starting with armlx.

Reason being, theres two likely reasons why he is doing this, and one of them involves them both being scum.

Clammy says:

Cannot believe this was missed!

But then says:

smooth work convincing the town to follow you..

If you say that what he said was majorly overlooked then why do you claim that he got the town to follow him? If we followed a long with anything he has said, it was most definitely not that.

Personally I take Darox's comment as pure speculation. But I do not see any reasoning as to why Darox would claim that Mike should be lynched solely because of the way Armlx has been regarding him. Sure he is being defensive of Mike, but I really believe Mike never needed a defense at the time he began defending him. Mike had done nothing to incriminate himself. It would be unfair to decide to lynch him solely based on the actions of another player towards him.

I'd be more worried if you weren't suspicious.

So you are saying we should be suspicious of you?

If anything, your attack has made me believe you're protown

So...attacking a person who hasn't done anything suspicious is pro-town? Obviously you believe Clammy's suspicions against you to be invalid. Does this mean you support straw-manning and red herrings? I'm very confused by your logic.

As for Caf, I agree with most of his recent post, except for here:

Personally, notwithstanding the relative inactivity of Qman and angelmouse (who need to post more today so we can form a proper opinion of them), I'd be happy with a lynch of either mike or Bazza.

..

..


I feel that pushing for mike's lynch might be somewhat as a reaction to armlx's confirmation.

I don't think a lynch of Mike just to get something out of armlx is a very good idea, and, as I stated in regards to one of Darox's previous statements, kind of unfair.

For now Caf, I still feel that you are pretty pro-town. As for Clammy, I don't feel comfortable with his reserved-nature, it makes me feel like he is trying to hide something, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now. Darox's responses to Clammy's suspicions towards him have me a bit puzzled and I don't know if I should take it as scummy or not.

Thats about it for now, I guess. I may give the game another re-read just in case I missed something crucial.

[armlx]

Random Comments about random people.

I do believe clammy isn't acting odd/anti-town for now, but thats a metagame read based on an ongoing so I won't discuss more. To summarize, I have seen him act similarly elsewhere and it was a very pro-town action.

Caf is about the same, though I'm a bit more wary here. Early posts were kinda non-commiting, with phrases like "weak FOS".

Brandi I've got my eye on for the aforementioned reasons, but I don't think she is a good lynch at this point.

Mike = Town. That is all there is to say here.

Angel seems good for now, somewhere between Clammy and Caf. Moderate contribution, nothing terribly out of place, definitely agree that those who pressed me were bordering on role digging.

No real read on Qman.

[Brandi]

definitely agree that those who pressed me were bordering on role digging.

OMG UR TOTALLY RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111one HOW DARE ANYONE QUESTION ANOTHER PERSONS REASONINGS FOR THEIR STATEMENTS?! BACKING UP OPINIONS? PSSHH, WHO NEEDS TO DO THAT!?

I HAVE AN IDEA! FROM NOW ON LETS JUST PLACE ALL OF OUR VOTES AND STATE OUR OPINIONS BUT GIVE NO REASONS FOR THEM! IF anyone questions us we'll just say they are role fishing! THAT will make for a good game!

Thanks for that Armlx, if it weren't for you I would have never realized that mafia was all about expecting people to read each others minds so that they wouldn't have to back up their opinions!

HOW SILLY OF ME TO GO THROUGH THIS ENTIRE GAME POSTING MY ANALYSIS! FOR SHAME. I WAS DOING IT THE HARD WAY.

PS: I'd also like to thank Angelmouse for teaching me that all random votes are bad. I had no idea that SERIOUS was a synonym for random!

Armlx and Angelmouse are the best IC's ever! I LEARNED A LOT FROM THEM.

VOTE: Everyone who random votes and isn't a mind reader

/sarcasm

[armlx]

Hardly all. Some can be. Random voting wouldn't be worth anything if it wasn't analyzable, would it?

[Brandi]

ran·dom

____

-adjective

1.

proceeding, made, or occurring without definite aim, reason, or pattern:

the random selection of numbers.

2.

Statistics

. of or characterizing a process of selection in which each item of a set has an equal probability of being chosen.

...
___

—Idiom

6.

at random, without definite aim, purpose, method, or adherence to a prior arrangement; in a haphazard way:

Contestants were chosen at random from the studio audience.

Random voting wouldn't be worth anything if it wasn't analyzable

Analyze this:

[roll]1d9[/roll]

[Brandi]

or not.

[Brandi]

Original Roll String: 1d9

1 9-Sided Dice: (9) = 9

I think thats it.

[Brandi]

LOL. The dice landed on #8, armlx is number 8 on the player list. Thats kind of amusing.

[Qman]

A few thoughts as i read through

I see where armix is going on zim.. I need to tumble it about my head for a bit though it could be a planned soft tell. For now I have to agree though he (zim) probably isn't the best pick today.

I had no intention of getting Qman even as far as -2, I wanted to see if I could get a rise out of him and spark some discussion.

Unlikely, getting a rise out of me is next to impossible.

more to come.

[Qman]

Also, Qman isn't saying much. Probably hypocritical of me to point that out, but hey, I'm posting more from now on. Got anything to say, Q?

as i read through again, I'll answer this up to this point.

I'm trying to figure out what's going on with brandi/armix. I'm leaning to thinking that Brandi is being upfront. Armix's play to this point (your post) is really sketchy to me. He hasn't been really pro-town in his play as far as mike-zim is concerned.

Not really getting much off anyone else.

[Brandi]

OMG YAY ITS Q-MAN!! *gives Q-man sunflower seeds*

[Qman]

You know, at the end of page 3, I heavily suspect armix of being a little hinky. There was NO reason to say what he did, when he did, about mike-zim's tell, but he said it anyways. I don't think armix is a bad enough player to make that sort of mistake, as he had to know he'd get hammered about his vague statement, if not by the IC's that also saw it, then the new players that didn't. I'm wondering if he's just trying to buddy up to the town faction as a whole so he can say "i told you so" later on.

on to page 4!

[Qman]

Page 4 thoughts:

@Bazza- fence sitting, while annoying, does come from some pro town people. New ones more oft than now.

@darox as of now, armix is my top suspect, because he was either intentionally calling out mike's tell, (which truth be told i missed my first read through) or well... that's about it really. I don't think armix is capable of being that careless. I'd have to say I think Brandi is probably town, though i could see armix-brandi scum distancing early. Otherwise I like ca19s postings so far.

It's also possible mike and (insert name here) are scum and the partner or mike decided to play the tell he has played. I'm not ruling out anything at this point.

[Qman]

armlx never mentioned that I was flippant. He said something or other about opportunism or something like that. what the heck does flippant mean anyway?

flip·pant [flip-uhnt] –adjective
1. frivolously disrespectful, shallow, or lacking in seriousness; characterized by levity: The audience was shocked by his flippant remarks about patriotism.

=)

[Qman]

I swear i am townie, voting for me is a mistake.

You know... that doesn't do anything to make you look townie right? I mean... really, you do know that?

[Qman]

For now, I am fine with Mike and armlx both staying alive today, but if I don't hear what armlx has to say on the matter day 2 then I think we should lynch both of them, starting with armlx.

Reason being, theres two likely reasons why he is doing this, and one of them involves them both being scum.

CrapLogic^TM.

Cannot believe this was missed! All of the following conversation, the words (oh the words! - oh my eyes!) together do not equate to anything compared to this comment.

It's logical, oh yes, but Darox, let me guess this straight, you want to determine who our D2 and D3 lynches are on page 4??

*facepalm*

unvote; vote: darox

I've got to agree with this post too, I was going to mention it later but... seriously, telling us who we should lynch in the next couple days is A.) Foolish bad town play, and B.) a well known scum tell.


If we mislynch today here is how the "Armix then mike" plan works.

D1 mislynch, NK

5 town 2 scum

Is armis is town

3 town 2 scum after a nk and the mislynch.

Keep pushing that mike lynch, if he's town we lose.

bad bad bad idea to talk about future lynched d1

[Qman]

Firstly

armlx-Mike thing.

Now i got very early on at what armlx was hinting at and i think the matter should have been left alone from there. Those that forced armlx's hand, so to speak, are those that i feel are much more suspicious at the moment than either of these two. Mike was over eager, something that happens in many newbie games, and is a complete null tell on the scum front. If armlx and mike are scum partners then linking themselves on page 2 is extremely dangerous play something i know armlx wouldn't do. The only possible avenue i can see that links either one as scum is armlx since he could be pairing himself up with mike so if he dies and is confirmed town armlx looks more town, but I don't believe this at this point. Further time and that might change, but I don't find armlx overly scummy just now. I also don't find mike scummy at the moment at all, just a complete novice finding his feet. Those that forced this issue between them should be looked at in more detail.

Do you think armix had any valid and clear reason to intimate what he did about mike when he did? I don't think it was needed and as I've said before, I don't think armix would be that casual or careless about doing so.

[Qman]

I'm still working the whole game over but my basic thoughts are up right now.

I'm not sure about Armix, he'd probably be #2 on my list.

For now I'm going to

vote Bazza-scumfinder

for the appealing of "you'll regret it i'm town! I promise!" That statement (or it's like) I consider strongly anti town statements to make.