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Post
Post #8 (isolation #0) » Tue May 26, 2020 4:21 pm
Postby beeboy »
I've thought about the strategy to this game today and it is optimal play for town is to just hand the chain to whoever they are confident is town and is least likely to get a chain from someone else.
The person who holds the most power is the 2nd last person to hold the chain since they choose who dies,
if we get a pool of 3 people, 2 scum and 1 town 33% of the time scum lives, same odds occur if we get a pool of 2 town 1 scum
since 66% of the time we have a 50% shot of hitting scum. So getting a whole bunch of scum at the end of our pool hardly helps us win. And letting town control who dies is incredibly valuable.
We also want a somewhat random town player being 2nd last so we shouldn't just select a "2nd last town" to make the kill, we want a fluid game state that allows for people to have free will especially in the early game since information is more valuable then actually hitting scum day 1 and 2. You can't solve a lot of players without letting them make hard hitting choices and by just shoving choices down their throat we can't ever get a solid read.
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
Post
Post #10 (isolation #2) » Tue May 26, 2020 4:24 pm
Postby beeboy »
I rolled NU btw.
I should not partake in quizzes, although I can freely be chainleader as they don't actually partake in quizzes which makes my NU not matter.
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
Post
Post #16 (isolation #3) » Tue May 26, 2020 4:36 pm
Postby beeboy »
In post 11, midwaybear wrote:That's a good observation with the odds. I did the math and everything checks out. However, that is assuming everything is random. You can generalize it to if we have n scum and 1 town, scum has n/n+1 chance of living. As an exercise, maybe we can figure out the probabilities if there are two town. However, this is based off of everything being completely random, and I don't think our actions here will be random.
pedit: what is NU?
NU = Negative Utility.
--
I do all my logic assuming town act randomly and scum don't.
That's just how mafia tends to play out.
--
Ok so forget about everything but the final 3 players.
You have 3 comparably scummy players, what happens, you pick someone at effectively random right? And our odds show having 2 or 1 scum does not actually help us.
Scum being 2nd last gives them the agency to choose who dies which is pretty bad for town. So you want 2 comparably scummy players and 1 town player to hold the 2nd last chain. Since by choosing the last link they also choose who dies which in itself is a powerful position.
Do you follow what I am saying and what I think we should do now?
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
Post
Post #17 (isolation #4) » Tue May 26, 2020 4:37 pm
Postby beeboy »
In post 12, Dunnstral wrote:You used a lot of words to argue for everybody basically doing whatever they want and passing the chain to people they think is town
I think I contradicted myself in their but I changed my mind, we should have a somewhat clear town be the 2nd last person.
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
Post
Post #30 (isolation #7) » Tue May 26, 2020 5:24 pm
Postby beeboy »
In post 29, Pink Ball wrote:Can I be the one who decides who lives and who dies and one of the two remaining players be Sir Cakez so I can let him die and be conftown for letting scum die?
I don't think we are ready for that just yet.
But I love the fire in this post none the less!
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
In post 39, NDMath wrote:Shouldn't we be controlling who that second-to-last person is?
Because if scum is third-to-last, controlling it means they don't get a chance to save a buddy, when that is a position where scum is highly likely to select a buddy.
What if we select a small pool of players we think are town and someone within that pool must be chosen to be 3rd last and someone else within that pool must be 2nd last. That way our chances of town having full control of the kill are increased?
I think day 1 should stay as it is. Anything else said will help scum organize and if they slip day 1 then that's on them.
If we just keep those 2 players we find as the scummiest in the pool of those we want to see lynched from each person who forms the chain and the 2nd to last as the most town I think it will be a good plan for day 1.
I agree with this, we just want 2nd to last to be a town player.
Everything else can be standard fluid mafia for the sake of game play.
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
Post
Post #52 (isolation #10) » Wed May 27, 2020 4:29 am
Postby beeboy »
In post 50, farside22 wrote:Can we have 2 fos per player? Please?
fos:albert
Sure it's just a way to present information, so people can't just chain their scum buddy and go "owo i didnt know and I tone read them as town xD" so at least you have to explain why your going against the grain if you decide to do it.
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
Post
Post #58 (isolation #12) » Wed May 27, 2020 4:51 am
Postby beeboy »
In post 55, SirCakez wrote:I expect scum to be doing a lot of IIoA this game ftr
Shitty thread direction can literally burn us into the ground I think you have a solid point but outside handing me the chain I want a solid game plan to be established before we move onto the game itself. Then after we agree on the game plan I think IIoA becomes pretty relevant.
Without a plan voteless games tend to lead to low information chaos.
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
Post
Post #95 (isolation #17) » Wed May 27, 2020 9:59 am
Postby beeboy »
In post 81, farside22 wrote:Glad you said that I was about to go Cartman for my next giphy moment.
I don't mind being part of the group, can I ask why Dunn is a town read?
Nah just pregame bias unless your asking Raya.
I wish I had 4 reads.
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
In post 103, beeboy wrote:@Raya, @Dunnstral wanna make a pact to get the chain to the 3 of us upon receiving it?
IDK if I'm into plans like this. I'd probably send it to Raya on my own accord anyway though
Honestly neither am I, I just assumed Raya would send it me or you. I was sending it to you or Raya.
And by putting it on the table we now have a real thing to argue about that isn't mechanics.
Scum reads this early don't hold a lot of weight, or at least in my opinion someone scum reading my town read doesn't matter to me.
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
Post
Post #110 (isolation #22) » Wed May 27, 2020 12:01 pm
Postby beeboy »
I can be this upfront about my intentions because it's not like that is stopping Dunnstral or Raya from getting a chain link without real push back lol.
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
In post 115, Starbuck wrote:In any case, I'm all for whatever strategy we think will work best with the chain. I am a little apprehensive about someone's first post in the game being nada but complete strategy like he's been analyzing for a final exam, though.
This seems like a veiled attack on beeboy. Why not just come out and say it?
shh the words of scum don't effect the game that much.
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
I agree, but I don't necessarily think we can do that here. Although I just want to get down to some scumhunting, it's been too long.
In any case, I'm all for whatever strategy we think will work best with the chain. I am a little apprehensive about someone's first post in the game being nada but complete strategy like he's been analyzing for a final exam, though.
Btw, if you're going to track FOS, then you should track, at least, 2 (if not all) from each player or just don't make the effort to track them. You can have multiple scumreads, just as you can have multiple townreads. But it's so early, who really has a dead-on scumread yet?
In post 70, beeboy wrote:TSE has a solid post about Farside not being in charge.
Given I am clearly the Flame God Emperor Town in this game
Who are you again?
So I am going back towards neutral/slight sus on Starbuck. I'll explain everything for clarity since I might as well.
First quip on me is scummy, second one is towny. I can explain on request but it neutrals out so meh.
FoS tracking comment is based on a concluded conversation between me and Farside that ended with us agreeing with you, so it was a weird thing to interject yourself into. Slightly wolfy.
You also say your eager to scum hunt but you didn't really add anything new since your analysis on my opening was non committal to avoid a debate or at least that's how I felt reading it.
But since you haven't played in many years you probably need time to get the ball rolling. Which would explain roughly half my read. You could still be scum and I don't think your town, I am just not going to pretend I have information I don't have when we still have an afk.
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
In post 194, beeboy wrote:TSE tell me 2 people you'd hand the chain to and why?
pedit: midway you can play this game as well if you want.
Pink Ball
I feel as if they might be a mislynch target normally and I think they are having a feud with ABR I’m not entirely sure on that. I trust their posts enough to save them for today to make sure someone scummy gets lynched over Pink Ball.
Reya
Usually my plan was just to choose Pink Ball but assuming Pink Ball is already chosen then I’d choose Reya.
They have shown some Townie posts and good contribution. While other players haven’t been really doing that.
The reason I won’t choose you and Dunn is because you guys are both playing pretty strong and you are obvious Town targets to pick to keep.
Usually if scum can’t pick their buddy they would pick you or Dunn because your the “easy route”
And they get a higher chance for a mislynch.
I actually town read Reya more then Dunnstral, to the extent where when I commit to my pact I wanted Dunnstral to be the end of our 3 man chain so I could see what he does with it.
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
Post
Post #223 (isolation #32) » Thu May 28, 2020 7:05 am
Postby beeboy »
In post 222, TrueSoulEnergy wrote:Ok.
So I suppose while your Town read Dunn are also sceptical of his slot with the possibility of him Power Wolfing?
Dunn is a very impressive scum player so it wouldn't surprise me.
Although I don't like to make reads on the basis of "hehe they are so good XD", feels unfair to the individual, Reya is just townier so I'll play to get information out of the worse of the 2 even if they are both likely town.
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
Post
Post #243 (isolation #33) » Thu May 28, 2020 9:07 am
Postby beeboy »
I think Raya believes what they are saying. Farside you have solid points about the reads themselves and they aren't particularly reads I would back up but I also think Raya stand by what she is saying. I also don't particularly see inconsistencies with how she is approaching the game which is more what I tend to look for when I try and identify people with bad reads.
I could be wrong here but I do think she is town.
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
Post
Post #244 (isolation #34) » Thu May 28, 2020 9:19 am
Postby beeboy »
My current stance on Starbuck is to agree to disagree on our approach to the game.
Look back at her day 2/3 when more content is established. Half this is just a bias because I know people joined this game to play with her which isn't exactly the best play but mafia is also just a game.
Math, Spring and unwnd are all players I think need to provide more content or they are just going to get crushed by the POE as this game progresses and I prefer to mislynch/catch scum do to me playing well not them conceding for no good reason.
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
In post 244, beeboy wrote:Math, Spring and unwnd are all players I think need to provide more content or they are just going to get crushed by the POE as this game progresses and I prefer to mislynch/catch scum do to me playing well not them conceding for no good reason.
It sounds like you are saying if people don't give content/post, you are going to push for their lynch. Not sure I really like that.
Also, who is Morning?
The way this game gets played they are going to die. Someone is going to town read an active player regardless of how scummy they are over a very low poster. It's going to result in them dying and hurting the game because it's just not game play at that point. It's not something I am pushing for but it's an inevitability if I don't push for them to produce content.
I think morning is spring based on context of morning having the chain.
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
Post
Post #302 (isolation #39) » Thu May 28, 2020 2:13 pm
Postby beeboy »
Tbh I am giving tarbuck space but if you are all going to jump on my pelt credit then I am going to feel robbed....
But on a serious note I don't like the slot but it's also a slot actively providing content so it's not the read I want to go after first.
The read can be improved, over lets say people like Chess, Midway and albert who have gone MIA =)
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
Post
Post #306 (isolation #41) » Thu May 28, 2020 2:24 pm
Postby beeboy »
I am not basing my read on you on a singular game of meta, I just had banter I wanted to bring up since you share the same avatar .
But yeah sorry if the avatar thing makes me mess up your name a few times.
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
Post
Post #336 (isolation #45) » Thu May 28, 2020 4:05 pm
Postby beeboy »
In post 334, unwnd wrote:When it comes to the chain I think there's benefit in giving to people you scumread, this may seems backwards but you're putting them in a position to commit to a read either way. If people are just throwing the chain around like hypothetical townblocks this can become an issue if the townblock is incorrect
I mean I think you should just give it to a town read.
Don't you want your scum reads to have it towards the end when they have a smaller selection.
Spring hands it to lets say, Math.
Math hands it to me.
oh boi what a hard choice lmao.
And to create the world with smaller pools for the scum reads to pick from you have to pick your top town read anyway.
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
In post 333, beeboy wrote:Starbucks lets say Spring went totally rogue and tossed you the chain what would you do with it?
Trying to get into your head right now.
I've kind of given up on ABR because he just doesn't intend on playing until day 2 apparently.
If Sprint wants to go completely rouge they pass the biggest scum read the chain.
lol.
That’s be funny
If I town read someone everyone else thought was scum I wouldn't give a shit to give them the chain lmao.
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
Post
Post #349 (isolation #47) » Thu May 28, 2020 5:04 pm
Postby beeboy »
I know I shouldn't be defending a scum read but I'll restate this once again because I am spending a lot of time thinking about the Starbucks.
I think Starbucks and ABR aren't likely to be scum together given how they keep prodding each other. I think both players are scummy and I think thats a consensus among the thread. The issue of piling on Starbucks is I don't think any of actually have the insight or enough information to be able to identify which one of them is actually town.
I am going to go reread TSE vs
Kosmos
unwnd and if I never give an update I just thought it was annoying to read and don't have thoughts on it.
pedit: Hello chain leader I am requesting a chain!
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
Post
Post #358 (isolation #49) » Thu May 28, 2020 5:20 pm
Postby beeboy »
In post 356, springlullaby wrote:^
@TSE, was that last post addressed at me? If so, let's be clear that I do not need people to explain mafia to me. In fact, I think there are many people who can explain mafia to either of you in this game.
@beeboy, why do you want to start the chain so fast?
-----
As chain leader, I'd like the following:
- nominate your towniest read atm.
- nominate your scummiest read atm.
Please, thanks.
I want to give it to Raya so people can stop using us as throwaway answers on who they'd give the chain to.
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia
Post
Post #415 (isolation #53) » Fri May 29, 2020 8:16 am
Postby beeboy »
In post 411, SirCakez wrote:I agree his lack of real gameplay is suspicious but I SRed him for the same thing in Guns and Roses and was wrong there so I'm hesitant.
He is more aggressive and is less fluffy.
Idk just feels like scum who doesn't want to commit to anything early/ have his town reputation chase him by having a good day 1.
ah yes, beeboy style reads;
if this person flips town, then i'll townread them. - Nahdia