Mini Theme 2145: The Weakest Link Game over

[Raya36]

I am with Raya, scum has a 1-shot Tamper.
Otherwise town is capable of chaining successful groups back to back.
If scum has too many tampers a failed group never gives us info and we likely never get a passing group since combined with my PR getting a large group of just town is very difficult.

I agree with the premises, which I was the first to point out in this thread.
But her reasoning is wrong.


1. Assuming 1-shot tampering power from scum:
- If used on N1, it means all QT members are town.
- Stating that N2 members are all town from that premise is therefore redundant.

2. Assuming 1-shot tampering power from scum:
- If not used on N1, it means that there is at least one members on N1 QT is scum.
- It therefore means that 1-shot from scum is still available to use on N2, to fake-confirm a QT members pool.
- Therefore the only rigourous conclusion that can be drawn from a pass on N2, is that one player, the one that receive the advantage, is town.

3. It also has to be considered that we don't know what is the advantage scum received from last night's fail
- Which means that it is still possible that scum used tampering on N1
- And received a renewed tampering power, to be used at any point in game.

Conclusion: anytime a quiz team pass, the only rigorous conclusion that can be drawn is that the person who received the advantage is town.

Make an effort to think before you post, because the whole lot of bad logic is not helping. I can foresee scum screwing you so bad over this. Don't.

Alright. I see this now.

[beeboy]

3. It also has to be considered that we don't know what is the advantage scum received from last night's fail
- Which means that it is still possible that scum used tampering on N1
- And received a renewed tampering power, to be used at any point in game.

Scum can N1 tamper to recieve a N2 tamper?
I had this thought in my head but I disagree with this being a reasonable outcome.

We run the group back, if it fails, the group has scum in it.

It is speculative, but it as to be kept in the realm of possible beyond further evidence.

> Do you disagree with the conclusion in my previous post?

We independently came to the same conclusion using slightly different reasoning.
Of course we are on the same page right now (I thought I came first but I don't care enough to check)

[Raya36]

3. It also has to be considered that we don't know what is the advantage scum received from last night's fail
- Which means that it is still possible that scum used tampering on N1
- And received a renewed tampering power, to be used at any point in game.

Scum can N1 tamper to recieve a N2 tamper?
I had this thought in my head but I disagree with this being a reasonable outcome.

We run the group back, if it fails, the group has scum in it.

We may not be able to confirm town anymore with this method but we can still have a small pool to select from if it fails.

[beeboy]

I disagree with Raya's conclusion that it creates 4 conf town. Scum can easily just hit the pass button and pretend it got framed night 1.

I just simply don't care if scum do that since town get a power in exchange for scum blending in. It slowly results in a town win.

[beeboy]

I disagree with Raya's conclusion that it creates 4 conf town. Scum can easily just hit the pass button and pretend it got framed night 1.

I just simply don't care if scum do that since town get a power in exchange for scum blending in. It slowly results in a town win.

If the group fails the odds of scum having 2 frames is so absurdly low that we now know we have to target inside the group until we flip scum.
Either way running the group back is a huge net positive for us.

[Raya36]

I disagree with Raya's conclusion that it creates 4 conf town. Scum can easily just hit the pass button and pretend it got framed night 1.

I just simply don't care if scum do that since town get a power in exchange for scum blending in. It slowly results in a town win.

I realize that now. I think all 3 of us are on the same page now?

[Pink Ball]

Page 74, yes

[springlullaby]

OK, now that we are on the same page, and I'm thinking further.

There are 4 players in the QT tonight.

Beeboy should go on the QT:
- unwnd targets beeboy
- all other player confirm their pass

1. If the team fails again, it effectively reduces the scum odd within that pool from 1/4 to 1/3; which beats town natural odds.
2. If the team pass, it gives us a confirmed player anyway.

[springlullaby]

^Also, assuming unwnd is town, they may die anyway after tonight because they are no longer bp.

[springlullaby]

The big wrench in that plan is:
- beeboy or unwnd are scum.
- scum tampering power. But I agree that scum possibly tampering more than once is OP, and makes the QT essentially useless until scum tampering power is eliminated.

[springlullaby]

Also, to be clear, I'm selecting the lowest possible number of scum anytime a quiz team fail, as worst case scenario, for comparative purpose only.

[Pink Ball]

If beeboy is scum, unwnd could still change his vote. The problem is only if unwnd is scum

[springlullaby]

Ok, then unwnd and beeboy go on the quiz team: then we'd know if at least one of them is lying by lynching the remaining two players in the pool.

QT N2:
- unwnd
- beeboy
- Player X
- Player Y

If fail, we assume player X or Y are scum: that 1/2 odds.
If X or Y are not scum, we know that beeboy or unwnd are lying, 1/2 odd again.

> This all can accomplished within D4, which is lylo assuming the worst case scenario that I'm wrong and scum has NK.

[springlullaby]

This also goes with the plan of putting the towniest player in the QT btw.

[beeboy]

I'd rather run back the group and if that plan does happen me and unwnd pick X and Y, 0 questions asked.

[springlullaby]

Let's see what unwnd has to say about it.

[Starbuck]

PB, what's your read on spring?

[Pink Ball]

PB, what's your read on spring?

Town

[springlullaby]

PB, I still don't know why you think I'm town btw.

[Pink Ball]

I told you in our PT. I thought you were just looking for a reason to scumread me, but when I saw the depth in your read on me it felt like legit scumhunting instead of trying to suit an agenda

[Raya36]

OK, now that we are on the same page, and I'm thinking further.

There are 4 players in the QT tonight.

Beeboy should go on the QT:
- unwnd targets beeboy
- all other player confirm their pass

1. If the team fails again, it effectively reduces the scum odd within that pool from 1/4 to 1/3; which beats town natural odds.
2. If the team pass, it gives us a confirmed player anyway.

This sounds good to me

[MariaR]

Seeking replacement for Albert B. Rampage

[beeboy]

Imagine replacing into the 75 page game that is barely day 2 start.
Unlucky.

[Raya36]

I'd rather run back the group and if that plan does happen me and unwnd pick X and Y, 0 questions asked.

This also sounds good to me lol

[Raya36]

Imagine replacing into the 75 page game that is barely day 2 start.
Unlucky.