Mafia of Revelations ~ Game Over!

[Hoopla]

hoopla, maybe this isn't a question uve researched but since uve talked about research

any thoughts on when scum is most likely to hop on a bus? L-1? L-2? hammer? i guess it kinda doesn't matter, but i'm trying to figure out how much the auro wagon has scum and how much the off wagons have scum

i only look at 3:10 games in mini normals. the reality is, scum lynches don't happen frequently enough to have a big enough sample size.

for sake of interest, there has been 20 D1 mafia lynches in the last two years in mini normals. of those 140 votes to lynch scum, only 19 have been bussing votes (+3 scum self-votes). since you asked, here's the distribution of where the buddies that lynch scum end up;

Spoiler: Wagon position of mafia teammates on D1 scumlynches

2-scum ON lynchwagon

2119 - 3, 5
2076 - 1, 7
2060 - 3, 6
2030 - 2, 6

1-scum ON/1-scum OFF

2132 - 2
2124 - 2
2115 - 4*, 5
2082 - 6, 7*
2045 - 6
2038 - 3, 7*
2023 - 7
2015 - 7
2013 - 4
2010 - 7
1996 - 5

0-scum on lynchwagon

2114
2057
2054
2048
2002

Bussing votes by position:

1st - 1
2nd - 3
3rd - 3
4th - 2* (one self-vote)
5th - 3
6th - 4
7th - 6* (two self-hammers)

Expected scum on wagon if votes are random (+ scum don't selfvote) = 1.166

Actual amount of bussing votes per lynch observed (19 from 20 lynches) = 0.95

~~

small sample size, but if anything, scum tend to underbus on D1, with a slightly higher concentration towards the end of the wagon. interestingly enough, if you went purely by those numbers, you have better odds of finding the scum NOT bussing, than the one(s) bussing.

this is a large game, so the numbers are less applicable here. but i'll make some comments about some of the different votes throughout the day, from an intuitive perspective. more and more, VP is starting to look town in my eyes. him being town makes a lot of sense in relation to how auro's wagon was pushed. i see yesterday as a classic town vs. scum wagon battle.

lets pick things up at page 34 with the votes looking like this;

VP Baltar (L-3)

~

Albert B. Rampage

, iamausername, Untrod Tripod, farside22, Llamarble, Hoopla

Blair (L-7)

~ Morning Tweet, Starbuck

Auro

(L-7)

~ VP Baltar, AGar

Untrod Tripod (L-7)

~ Blair, Green Crayons

Green Crayons (L-8)

~ xRECKONERx

Starbuck (L-8)

~ Kmd4390

farside22 (L-8)

~

Auro

Not Voting:

Porkens, CantLynchAPuppy

VP had been the main wagon for a while, and there was still some jostling off the wagon as to who would get pushed forward as his main rival. for that reason, i tend to like green crayons vote;

I’m feeling a bit rudderless this game and that doesn’t seem to be a unique feeling, so idk what that’s about—but whoever said it first is prob more likely town

I get what ABR is saying but it’s not doing it for me. VP sounds pretty reasonable. The big thing for me is, is that this conflict in perspective about the VP/ABR interaction isn’t toward any end. VP described ABR as combative, which is true, and then said it was null. Which is a pointless reason for VP-scum to purposefully lie about (and so suggests this is a legit difference in perspective l).

I do think hunting off the VP wagon is a good baseline

And I don’t think UT is really worth voting

VOTE: Auro

^this was a good vote and pushed auro's name into contention, the heat starting to rise a little. it was right around this time that the major players in the game were attempting to consolidate votes. ABR in particular was attempting to funnel everyone into a VPB/Auro dichotomy. it was at this point morning tweet jumped on VPB;

I would not be surprised at all if this game is harder to get into for him. I suppose he could be scum but because of the likelihood that this is just a difficult game, it doesn't make me feel like he has any extra chances of being scum

VOTE: VP l-2

i find the timing of morning tweet's joining of the VPB wagon suspicious - it's almost as if she was preemmptively keeping this wagon ahead before the auro wagon took off.

a few pages later, i too was now bullying people into consolidating votes. the votecount looking like this;

VP Baltar (L-2)

~ iamausername, Untrod Tripod, Hoopla, Morning Tweet, Porkens, Llamarble,

Auro

Auro

(L-4)

~ VP Baltar, AGar, Green Crayons,

Albert B. Rampage

, farside22

Untrod Tripod (L-8)

~ Blair

Blair (L-8)

~ Starbuck

Green Crayons (L-8)

~ xRECKONERx

Starbuck (L-8)

~ Kmd4390

farside22 (L-9)

~ (Auro)

Not Voting:

CantLynchAPuppy

in succession, starbuck and blair both jumped on auro, making them both at L-2. throwing a spanner in the works, i switched from VPB to auro, to take him to L-1.

i am mostly suspicious of blair's vote here as she had been chasing pet reads all day, calling VPB town when he had little competition, and then when i called her out to pick between the two leading wagons, she had no choice but to pick auro given her stance on VPB. in my opinion, she gets no credit for bussing auro (especially when she jumped off to promote an ABR speedwagon), and given starbuck looks pretty good, i think blair is a good candidate for a bussing vote.

in actuality, we almost certainly should be lynching farside or porkens (both of these players being on auro's lynchwagon), but i thought i'd share some thoughts on the other players on/off the wagon while things are quiet.

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:

for now...

[Porkens]

Ok, that’s awesome Hoopla. I’m really impressed by the statistical analysis you’ve done it’s inspiring and your analysis of the wagon is, I feel, very much in the right direction.

Im willing to trust starbuck if she has a good reason for not outing the info yesterday. Otherwise I’m scared of losing 4 townies.

I think what I need to do here is be brutally honest about my lived experience. I think that if I can spew enough of my own truth it will be clear that I’m not scum here. It’s going to be embarrassing for me, but here goes.

I started playing mafia scum I. 2008 with my IrL friend spyrex. You know him. He quickly became really, really good at forum mafia. He’s like that in all games. Tactical, game breaking strategist who figures it out theee steps before I could. That made me feel really inferior to him in mafia. Because of his skill, he was quick to make really good friends here too. I didn’t. I wasn’t good at reading for scum and I couldn’t follow mechanics and I was constantly being called a shit player when I was really trying, and that sucked. I’m not a dumb person, but for whatever reason mafia doesn’t click for me the same way it does for people like spyrex. This made me feel pretty diminished, and I quit. Now I think spyrex is a great guy with a good heart, and I don’t lay any of this on him - it’s me, but that’s his part in this story. And here’s the part that hurts: I was jealous. I wanted to show him I was as good, smart, skilled and I tried to take him on in a couple games, but he knew he had so much clout he could flip it on me no matter what, and he did, and it made me mad.

So I took a long break and came back some years later to try playing again. I wanted to become a better player, and I tried to learn. I had a little success; my win rate was a little better, but what I found was that I still couldn’t play the way most really good players do. I can’t analyze a wagon or line up lynches. I have a hard time seeing players working together or distancing. What I did find that worked was making a jackass out of myself, spouting off with random theories, lolhammering, and seeing who jumped on my wagon. Eventually, this became part of my reputation. I also started reading the game almost peitou emotionally and tonally. Focusing on how someone writes rather than what they wright. And sometimes I fucking nail it, and hit the scumteam early on. Unfortunately that doesn’t do much for my ego because the best players still call it shit meta. Which I alnowledge it is.

Another feature of this time in my mafia career was new superstars. Radient Cowbells, mastina, Others, and some of the players in this game to name a few. These people could fool others as scum, and catch the scum as town. I was so intimidated and jealous of these players that I would go after them I games sometimes, trying to prove I was just as good. But I wasn’t. They played layers of games while I was stuck at the very surface. I have tried to play like that, but I can only do it for very short bursts before my confidence shatters and I revert back to “clinically insane” porkens. Sometimes I post in pink text as another voice from my head

(which I am, and it’s my head not his)

and sometimes I just pick a theory and run with it no matter how unlikely it is, ESPECIALLY if it’s against one of these really good players. And you know what? It kind of worked. I had a better record as both maf and town in that era. I couldn’t be a great mafia player, but I could play a character, and sometimes that was good enough to win and have fun. I think of it as pro wrestling. It’s all a work until it’s a shoot, it afterwards it’s can all be a work again. So I had some success but I still wasn’t what I wanted to be, I still wasn’t ever going to win a scummy.

So now I come back in 2020. I decided to play again when farside came back and I was like hell yeah. Now I’m having a good time, got a good win rate, makin some friends, seeing some old faces, and this game show up and I’m like “hell yeah” again. Let’s see if I can make a good showing. (Stop laughing)

Like I said before Albert made a fool of me in our last game together. Then he started doing funny business in this game with the VP wagon. I got a theory in my head and went full bore on it. None of you would even acknowledge what he was doing was in any way scummy, or explain it to me, and I got pissssed offfff. All those feelings of being out of the cool kids club and being shit at the game came flooding back. Everyone knows what alberts doing except me. I don’t get it because I’m the shit player, the dumb one. This is how I felt. Albert can say “I’m never lynched day one because I’m so strong” and that makes him sound town. God damn it just makes me so JEALOUS. So, taking that emotion, and trying to get some agency in the game and maybe accomplish something g with my tiny insignificant self, I vote for Albert. I don’t want to fall for his shit, I don’t want to cower before his strength, I don’t understand his gambit and god damn it I’m not going to be bullied or cajoled into following it and I’m sure as hell not going to be ignored.

I had moments of lucidity in this rage haze. I thought “well if Albert is town and I let myself throw this shit fit, maybe scum will reveal themselves somehow. When Blair and CLAP got on the wagon I said “there’s one” and “that’s two”. In my head I said “there’s one scu” and “there’s two scum”. Now at this point I knew there was no way Albert was getting lynched and I was just being petulant, but since I was already so ramped up I figured I could maybe use that pestilance to some good. Play the part, work the scum, pro wrestle it. But simultaneously I’m still thinking if Albert is scum I’m not going to be tricked and I’m stating it now so I look smart after the game

not kidding in many cases this is what he cares about most!

So this brings me to the hammer. I hammered because...sigh...I wanted to have done something meaningful in the game. I wanted something to be about me instead of about Albert. I wanted to be the center of attention. I also thought it might Cause some ripples that someone, maybe even me, could see scum standing out in. Sadly, once I realized I was fulfilling everyone’s worst expectations of me, I felt terrible. I reread the votecou t and missed tripods in-line vote, which made me think “oh god I didn’t really hammer that’s great now it looks like an epic fake hammer and we can get some reactions and everyone with think I planned it and I’ll look smart and good at the game” . This is where most of the banter post hammer took place. I actually thought that others were in on it and playing along, really meme of it up with me. Then when things quieted down I counted again and realized no..Tripod voted in his paragraph...jokes on me. When auro flipped, I was so grateful not to have fucked it up. I dumbhammered, but at least it was scum. If he was town I would feel 1000% worse. But he wasn’t he was scum. And a scum tracker at that. Too bad I didn’t have anything to do with it other than fucking in the last 6 possible days of discussion. And make me an easy lynch.

Well. I think that’s about it.

[Hoopla]

if i was capable of feeling emotions, that would be a sensational appeal to them. bravo, porkchop!

now lets hear farside's life story before we decide today's lynch.

[Porkens]

I’m not trying to appeal to your emotions, actually. I’m explaining my actions by telling you about my emotions.

[Porkens]

But thanks all the same

[Morning Tweet]

Pork what the fuck

[Porkens]

Sorry

[Morning Tweet]

I'm not mad i'm just.. in awe a little bit

I sort of read it and am sort of just buying whatever it is that made you act that way yesterday because anything will make way more sense to me than you doing it to help scum somehow

[farside22]

So I read through the day start. Didn't read what happened towards the end of the day yet. I started back to work so I'm a lot more busy now.
A few thoughts on SB's claim. I liked what Hoopla had to say but I think when you see ABR was killed last night that makes no sense for scum SB to do since he had a strong tr on her. Also I don't see anything scummy with SB.
I don't think everyone does soft tells when they have info but it would have been nice to see SB at least question players more with that info. I look at this as 1v1 since SB scum makes no sense to me given the NK and my read of her.

VOTE: Porkens

if i was capable of feeling emotions, that would be a sensational appeal to them. bravo, porkchop!

now lets hear farside's life story before we decide today's lynch.

My story is really depressing. My story is more starting from a person who was bored, grew to a tyrannical bitch and ended up with a emotional mess. I don't think people would like my story very much.

[iamausername]

huh.

for the record, before Starbuck dropped her revelation, i was thinking a lynchpool of {Blair, Puppy, Morning Tweet, iamausername} was a very reasonable way for the day to go, following yesterday's events, with Blair being the choice from that pool that i'd be backing. i reread overnight in light of Auro's flip, and Blair very much comes off as scum expecting the day to drift inexorably to a VP Baltar lynch and panicking when ABR pulled the rug out from under her.

but with a lynchpool of {Porkens, farside, Starbuck} i don't know where to go, because all of them read as town to me, before and after the flip. if i had to pick right now i'd probably vote farside because i remember less clearly

why

i thought she was town, but i'm gonna isoread the three of them first.

[Vi]

~Vote Count XV:

Mod Picturebox set to "cuteposting"

Porkens (L-5)

~ Starbuck, VP Baltar, farside22

CantLynchAPuppy (L-6)

~ Green Crayons, xRECKONERx

iamausername (L-7)

~ CantLynchAPuppy,

(Hoopla)

Blair (L-7)

~ Gammagooey,

(Untrod Tripod)

Starbuck (L-7)

~

(Porkens,)

Porkens

Morning Tweet (L-8)

~

(VP Baltar)

farside22 (L-8)

~

(Porkens)

Not Pwning:

AGar, Blair,

(CantLynchAPuppy, farside22, Green Crayons, Hoopla,)

iamausername, Kmd4390,

(Gammagooey,)

Morning Tweet,

(Porkens, Starbuck, Untrod Tripod, VP Baltar, xRECKONERx,)

Untrod Tripod,

(Porkens,)

Hoopla

--With 15 alive, it will take 8 votes to pwn a player.
--Deadline is at 21:00 on Wednesday, 9 July 2020.

(10 days left)

[Green Crayons]

life story

lol

[Starbuck]

Her play yesterday does nothing to suggest she had any such information from day 1.

It absolutely does. I was working through sorting farside yesterday because I know her a bit better.

She makes no attempt to sort farside at all, I don’t think she evens mentions her.

ABSOLUTE AND COMPLETE MISREPRESENTATION.

I point you to my ISO 2 & 3 (some random back and forth at the beginning of the game), but then to ISO #58/Post 1013, ISO #59/Post 1017, and that line of thinking continues in my response to Auro in ISO 61/Post 1077. So please, tell me again, how I didn't mention farside because I clearly did and it was the basis for my vote on Auro yesterday.

I completely sorted farside yesterday, which helped land me on you as scum.

Finally, why even hold that information day one at all? What if she were the nightkill, then that info does with her? Doesn’t make sense for town.

I think you're forgetting that even ABR himself was telling y'all that I'm a false positive. Also, it works to my benefit because scum ain't gonna kill a scummy town player. I wasn't dying last night, dude.

According to the Rules post, some of the players start with info. I wasn't the only one, but there was no sense in distracting from what ABR was doing with my information when statistically we had a small chance of one in the three (of you, me, and farside) dying on the overnight. I'm not the only one holding information because if I remember correctly, you were the one who brought up the info in our roles in the first place and you didn't reveal what you know. So that's a bit hypocritical there, my friend.

[Starbuck]

Oh and in that quote she says she’s pretty sure there is scum in Blair, clap, or me. No mention of farside whatsoever.

The ABR push. DUH.

[CantHateAPuppy]

it's great that starbuck wants to dismantle porkens, but i think it's more important atm to elaborate on this revelation that leads to lynching pork in the first place. why should starbuck care whether porkens is making a misrep when starbuck should already be fairly confident that pork is scum, and only needs to explain to the rest of us how this revelation work?

[CantHateAPuppy]

small sample size, but if anything, scum tend to underbus on D1, with a slightly higher concentration towards the end of the wagon. interestingly enough, if you went purely by those numbers, you have better odds of finding the scum NOT bussing, than the one(s) bussing.

thanks for doing this. if u had asked me to guess, would've said that scum probably bus near the start or the end of a wagon, but not in that middle phase that takes a wagon from small to big. i guess that's kinda what it looks like even with small data size. definitely agree that vpb looks town from the way the wagons played, and you're probably right about green crayons (since he was on the middle) too.

[CantHateAPuppy]

for the record, before Starbuck dropped her revelation, i was thinking a lynchpool of {Blair, Puppy, Morning Tweet, iamausername} was a very reasonable way for the day to go, following yesterday's events, with Blair being the choice from that pool that i'd be backing. i reread overnight in light of Auro's flip, and Blair very much comes off as scum expecting the day to drift inexorably to a VP Baltar lynch and panicking when ABR pulled the rug out from under her.

why blair? if blair was scum she could have done a lot more to push vpb instead of passively sitting by, do you think blair is the kind of person who would let a scummate die by passively sitting by? i kinda want to meet this alternate reality blair, she sounds nice

[Starbuck]

Go ahead, the bit of information that I received is one of you or farside are scum. I think it's you. So no, my vote isn't moving and you shouldn't be been so obvscum yesterday with your reactionary stances.

I believe this.

Consider my vote spiritually on Porkens. (Not sure how close we are to hammer, can't be bothered to check)

This was a revelation she had from day 1, right? So why not out it say 1?

@Starbuck

Any breadcrumbs?

I'm not the best at breadcrumbs. It's something I've never fully mastered, but basically this:

You think Pork is scum trying to save his buddy? I doubt that, Pork has been consistently obvtown

I think obvtown is a bit of a stretch.

and when ABR asked for final comments

The obvtown comment from MT regarding Porkens set my alarm bells off. I'm struggling putting him as town and didn't particularly care for his attempt to start the ABR counter wagon.

[CantHateAPuppy]

According to the Rules post, some of the players start with info. I wasn't the only one, but there was no sense in distracting from what ABR was doing with my information when statistically we had a small chance of one in the three (of you, me, and farside) dying on the overnight. I'm not the only one holding information because if I remember correctly, you were the one who brought up the info in our roles in the first place and you didn't reveal what you know. So that's a bit hypocritical there, my friend.

still wanna hear starbuck talk about this revelation more, but pork if you have a revelation too u should prolly claim before we lock ourselves into a 1v1

[Starbuck]

I can't with the WIFOM and AtE in 1349 and 1352. So y'all have fun with that.

Otherwise I’m scared of losing 4 townies.

4?

it's great that starbuck wants to dismantle porkens, but i think it's more important atm to elaborate on this revelation that leads to lynching pork in the first place. why should starbuck care whether porkens is making a misrep when starbuck should already be fairly confident that pork is scum, and only needs to explain to the rest of us how this revelation work?

What do you need elaboration on? I have given everything I know and it's clearly laid out in the thread already.

I started with information, as did a handful of others as is stated in Post #1, that information is that one of farside and Porkens is scum. That's it. It's all I got.

[Green Crayons]

The only way I see Starbuck being scum is if scum have the power to change the alignment of one player's flip.

That's such an overpowered ability, though, I would have to think it would be stuffed in a revelation. Is that even a role or just something my paranoia has made up?

@Starbuck:

is the wording of your revelation that ONLY one of farside/porkens MUST be scum, period, full stop, without qualification as to that being true at the start of the game or some similar wording? I want to make sure the phrasing discounts the ability for scum to recruit.

[CantHateAPuppy]

i guess i just have a few follow-up questions since it seemed like you only told part of the story (like whether there were any breadcrumbs, which i guess not)

* this is a revelation, not a role, right? uve had this information all along and chose to give it now, its not part of some ongoing revelation that will reveal new info? maybe ppl will disagree but if you're like that kind of cop that checks if the target is the same as the target you last checked, i'd rather just hear that

* does ur revelation come with some sort of role name or are you a vt? is there some part of this claim you can flesh out? even if ur PM just says "u're VT but have this information" id like to hear how it was presented to u

[Starbuck]

@Starbuck: is the wording of your revelation that ONLY one of farside/porkens MUST be scum, period, full stop, without qualification as to that being true at the start of the game or some similar wording? I want to make sure the phrasing discounts the ability for scum to recruit.

Only one, in the two of them, is scum. I'm paraphrasing for obvious not quoting the mod reasons. I don't feel I can go further without breaking game rules.

[Green Crayons]

Yeah, I'm not asking for you to quote; just whether you think there is any qualifying language that would leave the ability for recruitment. Sounds like no.