Open 787 || Lovers Mafia — Game Over

[innocentvillager]

i think Nash is town

[innocentvillager]

there's nothing that's unraveled in this game that isn't consistent with norway/damos scumteam, someone can suggest otherwise

[innocentvillager]

alright here's my readslist at this point:

{innocentvillager}
{Battle Mage, word}
{Nash}
{Deimos, Norwegian}

for the record my first readslist was bomb

[NorwegianboyEE]

This makes that quote i read in someones signature saying "i will townread them... when they flip town" seem very appropiate.

[NorwegianboyEE]

i think given the format we should just decide on two people up front where scum is in one of them and elim them one after the other no questions asked,

Not a terrible plan.

Of course, i disagree on principle because i'd prefer not to be lynched at all, especially for these garbage reasonings. But as a far as backup-plans go. It's not awful.
Just make sure to lynch BM no questions asked if i'm actually lynched today.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Lynching me and turning the game from 4v2 to 3v2 gives more leeway for scum to disrupt town process, but it can be avoided by already planning the next lynch like IV suggests.

[NorwegianboyEE]

You're fine with that right Battle Mage♪

[Deimos27]

I was considering the possibility of a white flag gambit but this pressure on Norwee has lasted so long that it's very unlikely it involves a bus. Counting Nash that's now four people pushing him which mathematically confirms it as scum driven fmpov

[Deimos27]

Norwee Nash is right that it makes no sense for you to lock me as town for defending you though. FYPOV I could be scum whiteknighting letting my partner push you through

[Deimos27]

Hmm, but I do think I can ignore that, because, as mentioned, the chances of a bus here are so low. Norwee has strong town equity just by arguing from best explanation for the gamestate

[Deimos27]

Word is probably the towniest player atm. And I like how he stalled the pressure on Norwee, though it's not all that hard to fake as scum

[Deimos27]

im ok with that course of action
it seems both norwee and deimos r rly motivated with BM
so let me tell ya somethin
deimos, vote for norwee so we can end the day and ull be my conftown
ill sheep u to whoever u want tomorrow, no matter whom
how bout that?

Or we could go for the higher EV play of just not eliminating Norwee

[Deimos27]

I'm not convinced by the IV townread. Tunnels are often towntells because they're hard to fake and bold to take, but though this one might be bold to take it's very much not hard to fake.

I'll glance at IV meta later today.

[Deimos27]

VOTE: Battle Mage

[Deimos27]

Nash can you summarize in no more than two or three sentences why Norwee is scum?

[NorwegianboyEE]

Norwee Nash is right that it makes no sense for you to lock me as town for defending you though. FYPOV I could be scum whiteknighting letting my partner push you through

Yes i know you could theoretically be scum white knighting me, but i scumread Nash and Battle Mage by the time you showed up.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I'm not convinced by the IV townread. Tunnels are often towntells because they're hard to fake and bold to take, but though this one might be bold to take it's very much not hard to fake.

I think their very early scumread on me was something scum would be unlikely to push. I mean, he basically posted reads saying i was scum on page 2 and then started bitching and tunneling me when i argued his reads suck. It just doesn't seem like something scum would do.

[NorwegianboyEE]

At least there's been some miniscule amount of solving from IV and coherent logic.
BM hasn't been trying to understand the gamestate and read my alignment at all. He has basically just been shouting and throwing his weight around. I think the only point of note from his ISO was saying he "like" a post Word321 made.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Spoiler:

norwee, with all due respect, ur arguments r insanely weak
bms meta has been on point, we need 100% town vote to lynch from the nature of the game so it is necessary to gather every support possible, u asked for my opinion when the only possible bad scenario is me trying to become unrelated to the hammer of a town from town persepective, when the most profitable alternative is getting towncred by the defense of the rashness by other town
well, nothing will change the fact that BM has his target, and I rly dnt think that innocent villager will change his mind at some point; that by itself is already damning, if anyone of em is town, cause that means we have 100% of a townhammer this round.

its a hole for both town and scum. The thing is that this kind of scenario has a possible alternative; death by overpush, where the arguments given become increasingly weaker and the idea that we r lynching scum and u r trying to ditch a defense becomes more and more plausible, in a self feeding loop. But given the evidence, and bc this is just a game, i rly would go for the hammer a priori.

thats what I mean.

and yes, u r right with ur probabilities; the state of the game pushes it that way.
but it is a fallacy to work only with raw probabilities; none of us have strong connections to each other by attitude. the fact we default to nash and deimos is not due to simple probabilities to defaulting on ppl who dnt talk, but by making connections with already aquired knowledge. its simply how the game developed.

(answering the previous questions)

this is a high quality post.

This is literally all BM has done in regards to solving the people around him. Other than that it's been repeating i'm scum and my partner is Deimos/Nash Ad Nauseum.

[Nash]

Nash can you summarize in no more than two or three sentences why Norwee is scum?

What for?

Norwee, why's word town?

[NorwegianboyEE]

Norwee, why's word town?

I thought them saying they would sheep Deimos pending my alignment was a townie thing to say.

[NorwegianboyEE]

What for?

Why am i scum?

[innocentvillager]

Nash can you summarize in no more than two or three sentences why Norwee is scum?

What for?

Norwee, why's word town?

Lmao I love this guy

[innocentvillager]

Norway I think you are being unreasonable if you can’t see how you/damus is quite plausible from town!me POV given how things have unfolded. Like assume this is the scumteam from the initial state and tell me why this doesn’t work, don’t go off into your alternative hypothesis or probability nonsense from an unknown state

[innocentvillager]

I’m calling it now, damus is going to “meta me” and find excuses to discredit me by showing every post from every old town game where I acted differently and some random scum posts where I acted similarly

Which will just add more muddiness in our approach to find a two person elim pool which is obviously the pro town strat

Although me posting this might change his actions lol

Anyway I think we just need to go balls to the wall and not let scum influence our elim pool