Newbie 656 Game Over!

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Post Post #150 (ISO) » Fri Aug 08, 2008 3:40 pm

Post by Fenchurch »

RandomGem wrote:
Drifter
, can you explain your post 142? Why with the sudden epiphany?
I assumed that it was triggered by this, and other posts like it:
Fenchurch wrote:Drifter, you have the second highest postcount in the game so far (haha.. guess who is first), but haven't really questioned other players, or made accusations.... Do you want a deadline? And if there was one, who would you be choosing to vote for?
I think Drifter took these posts to be saying that he ought to make an accusation in order to look more townie. But the accusation he made, and the reason given for it, don't make any sense, which looks even less townie.

And Drifter, a good townie
should
worry about getting lynched off, because as a townie you should want a scum lynch, not a lynch of an innocent. Accepting your own lynch as an innocent is not pro-town.

Regards to Drifter's early vanilla claim that had struck me as genuine - is it possible that in the pre-game discussion, the second mafia player could have advised Drifter to claim vanilla if he was under pressure?
Would anyone who has played on the mafia side before be able to confirm if this is plausible?
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Post Post #151 (ISO) » Fri Aug 08, 2008 3:54 pm

Post by RandomGem »

Fenchurch wrote:Regards to Drifter's early vanilla claim that had struck me as genuine -
is it possible that in the pre-game discussion, the second mafia player could have advised Drifter to claim vanilla if he was under pressure?

Would anyone who has played on the mafia side before be able to confirm if this is plausible?
Of course it's possible. I personally wouldn't claim at 3 votes, and if I was hypothetically scum, I wouldn't risk claiming a power role, and would claim townie instead. But now that I think about it, that's pretty much a useless claim. If I was at L-1 and pretty much going to be lynched, I would claim doc. I would hope for a counterclaim, because then my partner could kill him that night. This would only be a desperation/suicide move though, since it's pretty likely to fail.
---
Oh great. By typing that, I've opened up a whole world of WIFOM. And likely suspicion on me. Woot.
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Post Post #152 (ISO) » Sat Aug 09, 2008 1:10 am

Post by Fenchurch »

RandomGem wrote:Of course it's possible. I personally wouldn't claim at 3 votes, and if I was hypothetically scum, I wouldn't risk claiming a power role, and would claim townie instead. But now that I think about it, that's pretty much a useless claim. If I was at L-1 and pretty much going to be lynched, I would claim doc. I would hope for a counterclaim, because then my partner could kill him that night. This would only be a desperation/suicide move though, since it's pretty likely to fail.
Hmm. Yes, fishing for a counter-claim does make sense, although if there was one, then it would seal your own lynch. Is that a good trade-off for the mafia to make? I don't know. And I don't know how many vanilla claims have staved off a lynch, so you're right that it could be useless. I mean, it did make us think twice about Drifter, but that's because it came at a time when most people weren't looking to lynch him.

Hmm. I still think Drifter's recent posts are dodgy, and in the game as a whole he simply does not seem to be interested in finding out who the mafia are, and his few posts that have been accusatory sound awfully contrived.

Also, Drifter, I didn't answer your comment about deadlines. No there isn't a harm in knowing, but you had already been informed of the circumstances in which a deadline would be imposed, and when you asked the second time, it does seem like you *want* there to be one. The only reason to to have a deadline is if the game stalls, and since it hasn't, it was unnecessary to ask.
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Post Post #153 (ISO) » Sat Aug 09, 2008 1:39 am

Post by Drifter »

alright wel I have said I'm not the Mafia, I'm getting plenty of advice apart from how to defend myself, so all I can say is that I haven't been afraid to throw my name out there, I haven't hid or coasted, iv posted a lot. tbh this thread isn't that much fun it seems like a classroom. If you are going to vote me off then I suggest going for life of pie next.
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Post Post #154 (ISO) » Sat Aug 09, 2008 2:57 am

Post by lifeofpie »

RandomGem wrote:
Fenchurch wrote:Regards to Drifter's early vanilla claim that had struck me as genuine -
is it possible that in the pre-game discussion, the second mafia player could have advised Drifter to claim vanilla if he was under pressure?

Would anyone who has played on the mafia side before be able to confirm if this is plausible?
Of course it's possible. I personally wouldn't claim at 3 votes, and if I was hypothetically scum, I wouldn't risk claiming a power role, and would claim townie instead. But now that I think about it, that's pretty much a useless claim. If I was at L-1 and pretty much going to be lynched, I would claim doc. I would hope for a counterclaim, because then my partner could kill him that night. This would only be a desperation/suicide move though, since it's pretty likely to fail.
---
Oh great. By typing that, I've opened up a whole world of WIFOM. And likely suspicion on me. Woot.
Personally, I don't think that predicting scumtactics is particularly scummy.

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Post Post #155 (ISO) » Sat Aug 09, 2008 7:45 am

Post by thinktank »

RandomGem wrote:
Fenchurch wrote:Regards to Drifter's early vanilla claim that had struck me as genuine -
is it possible that in the pre-game discussion, the second mafia player could have advised Drifter to claim vanilla if he was under pressure?

Would anyone who has played on the mafia side before be able to confirm if this is plausible?
Of course it's possible. I personally wouldn't claim at 3 votes, and if I was hypothetically scum, I wouldn't risk claiming a power role, and would claim townie instead. But now that I think about it, that's pretty much a useless claim. If I was at L-1 and pretty much going to be lynched, I would claim doc. I would hope for a counterclaim, because then my partner could kill him that night. This would only be a desperation/suicide move though, since it's pretty likely to fail.
---
Oh great. By typing that, I've opened up a whole world of WIFOM. And likely suspicion on me. Woot.
Yes indeed.

Predicting scum tactics is definitely a shady road leading just to speculative arguments rather than evidence base arguments and leading the town into more chaos than needed.

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Fos: Fenchurch
Armlx: What has he done to make you think he's scum.
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Post Post #156 (ISO) » Sat Aug 09, 2008 9:24 am

Post by Fenchurch »

thinktank wrote:Predicting scum tactics is definitely a shady road leading just to speculative arguments rather than evidence base arguments and leading the town into more chaos than needed.
Fair enough, I hadn't realised that it was a bad idea. I'm still not sure I fully understand why, but I'll take your word for it and hold off that kind of speculation now.
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Post Post #157 (ISO) » Sat Aug 09, 2008 9:53 am

Post by thinktank »

Predicting scum tactics gets into the WIFOM argument area and does nothing to actually catch scum because its all just speculation. At best is does nothing to help town, at worst it helps scum.

For example, a popular part of analyzing or predicting scum methodology is looking at the night kills. "Player X died last night and he was attacking player Y very hard, so Player Y looks scummy". But maybe thats what the scum secretly want. Player Z and W are actually scum and kill Player X to frame Player Y.

The problem with analyzing and predicting scum methodology is often times you're just going out on a limb and making hunches. Leading into WIFOM. Leading into baseless arguments and these things are just not pro town as they are doing nothing to actually catch scum.

Occam's Razor applies surprisingly well to Mafia. Don't make any more assumptions than you have to.
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Post Post #158 (ISO) » Sat Aug 09, 2008 10:25 am

Post by Fenchurch »

thinktank wrote:The problem with analyzing and predicting scum methodology is often times you're just going out on a limb and making hunches. Leading into WIFOM. Leading into baseless arguments and these things are just not pro town as they are doing nothing to actually catch scum.
Ah, well I agree with your example about analysing nightkills, especially ones that seem to implicate people, and I also see the WIFOM that could result from RandomGem's post.

But I still don't see the WIFOM in my Drifter pre-game speculation - I'm not saying that it was a deliberate misleading action, rather that it was a misinterpretation of another player's advice on what and when to claim.

Actually I can see why it's pretty poor: you're right, it involves building quite a lot of imagined actions out of only one that is known, and it's pretty scummy to try and convict someone based on things that you don't even know if they happened. Which explains your FoS. Okay, point taken!
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Post Post #159 (ISO) » Sat Aug 09, 2008 4:21 pm

Post by chapter 5 »

Fenchurch seems like an intelligent and reasonable player -- I don't think I'll allow any future mistakes or scummy reasoning on her part to be like, "oh, I'm a newbie, I don't know," similar to what she did a few posts ago.

This may seem like tunneling on Fenchurch. It probably is. My vote stands until further notice.
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Post Post #160 (ISO) » Sun Aug 10, 2008 12:04 am

Post by ShadowLurker »

thinktank's singling me out to agree with gives me an odd feeling...
Artem wrote:I'm not seeing where he's asking for a deadline. I'm seeing where he's wondering if there is a deadline, but given his vote lead, that's kind of understandable, don't you think?
Post 74 asks about a deadline and he was told the mod will impose one if there is a lack of activity. It is the phrasing that matters in post 134. He asks the mod if he's "imposing a deadline for Day 1" which sounds like he knows there is a deadline and is asking if the mod is going to do it (as well as a bit of slight pressure for the mod to do it) rather than "are we currently under deadline?"
Artem wrote:And what's wrong with FoSing four people after doing my read-through? Also, why is it that when somebody even as much as uses the words "cop" or "doc", somebody else immediately jumps on them yelling "FISHING!". Did you even read the point I was making or do you honestly expect the real cop to come out and claim after reading my post?
The point was that there was no reason at all to include this sentence on what you think the cop would or would not do, "If this wasn't day 1, I'd say that it's a cop telling us to back off an investigated townie." And obviously the point of fishing isn't to get a power role to come out and blatantly claim; that's demanding a claim, not fishing. Fishing is looking for reactions to a statement about a power role to get a better gauge on who the power roles are.
Artem wrote:I also don't understand what you are referring to by RandomGem's "many other contributions". Looking over his posts, all I'm seeing are some questions, joke comments and a brief FoS of owsianko's vote/unvote and your aggressiveness. Then I come along and put some pressure on him so he's also got a few defense posts. He's done no scumhunting other than to call himself out for lurking. He's also one of the three currently not voting, the other two being a lurker/inactive player and a guy that agrees with everything you've said so far a 100%. RandomGem looks to me like a player who's just coasting along. Still think my reasons are crappy?
Ok, "many other contributions" was a bad choice of wording. What I was trying to say was RandomGem has done many other things that I've noted down and I didn't like your pointing out something as trivial as that which I saw nothing into as a reason. Lurking in plain sight and slipping by is a much better reason to be voting someone but you didn't state that originally (or at least not clearly enough for me)


thinktank wrote:Predicting scum tactics gets into the WIFOM argument area and does nothing to actually catch scum because its all just speculation. At best is does nothing to help town, at worst it helps scum.
^^

The only time predicting scum tactics should be done at all is when looking at the subtle things that someone probably wouldn't have given much, if any, thought about. For blatant things like a claim, it is never helpful. Don't judge his alignment from his claim; judge his claim's truthiness from your read of his alignment.



Predicting scum tactics is newbieness, not scumminess.



Also, I didn't even realize Sion was
in the game at all
when I made my last post. Add him to the list of people I'd be fine with voting and I agree with a prod on him. In fact, judging by the fact that I have a mostly town vibe from the current discussion, that raises Sion's chances of being scum for me considerably by process of elimination, unlike some games where almost everybody is a suspect and I'm willing to cut lurkers some slack in the scumminess department.
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Post Post #161 (ISO) » Sun Aug 10, 2008 12:06 am

Post by ShadowLurker »

EBWOP: The reason I'm not switching my vote to Sion is because it seems he needs to be replaced so it would be pointless. I've been wanting to switch my vote for a little bit now as it doesn't seem to be doing much at the moment on Drifter anyway, but haven't found a suitable candidate just yet.
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Post Post #162 (ISO) » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:16 am

Post by Artem »

Drifter, do you plan on answering my questions:

-Why are you trying to cover up your vanilla claim? You're not helping the town and you can't exactly fool the scum; they already know your alignment.
-What did you mean in the second sentence of
Drifter wrote: yeh, I see what you mean apologies to the townies for that. Unless I turn out not to be a vanilla townie.
ShadowLurker wrote: Post 74 asks about a deadline and he was told the mod will impose one if there is a lack of activity. It is the phrasing that matters in post 134. He asks the mod if he's "imposing a deadline for Day 1" which sounds like he knows there is a deadline and is asking if the mod is going to do it (as well as a bit of slight pressure for the mod to do it) rather than "are we currently under deadline?"
I've read it differently but rather than speculating and giving Drifter a host of answers to choose from, why don't we just ask him.

Drifter: Why did you ask about mod imposing a deadline in 134?
ShadowLurker wrote: The point was that there was no reason at all to include this sentence on what you think the cop would or would not do, "If this wasn't day 1, I'd say that it's a cop telling us to back off an investigated townie." And obviously the point of fishing isn't to get a power role to come out and blatantly claim; that's demanding a claim, not fishing. Fishing is looking for reactions to a statement about a power role to get a better gauge on who the power roles are.
I see your point but when I was making the statement, I felt that it was fairly safe to do so because I didn't see a reason for the cop (if we have one) to react to this statement at all. I was making the point that Fenchurch's phrasing of "Barking up the wrong tree" struck me as odd for day 1, but, admittedly, I could have made the same point without a reference to the cop.
ShadowLurker wrote: Ok, "many other contributions" was a bad choice of wording. What I was trying to say was RandomGem has done many other things that I've noted down and I didn't like your pointing out something as trivial as that which I saw nothing into as a reason. Lurking in plain sight and slipping by is a much better reason to be voting someone but you didn't state that originally (or at least not clearly enough for me)
No, originally I voted him for what I thought was an attempt to start a WIFOM argument. I put pressure on him, expecting to see "It wouldn't make for scum to do that (call themselves out for lurking)". But that phrase never came. However, other things that I would expect from a townie (like scumhunting) didn't come either (until just recently, where he started to ask questions).

And to be fair, you never stated what these other pro-town things you've noted are either.
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Post Post #163 (ISO) » Mon Aug 11, 2008 3:10 am

Post by NabakovNabakov »

Vote Count as of Post 162


Drifter (2):
lifeofpie, ShadowLurker

thinktank (1):
Drifter

Sion (1):
Fenchurch

RandomGem (1):
Artem

Fenchurch (1):
Chapter 5


Not voting (3)
RandomGem, thinktank, Sion

Drifter wrote: Nabakov are you imposing a deadline for day 1?
Not at this moment. I will impose a deadline if I feel the day has gone on too long or is moving too slowly. I tend to have a fairly generous threshold in both regards.

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Post Post #164 (ISO) » Tue Aug 12, 2008 1:15 pm

Post by Drifter »

-Why are you trying to cover up your vanilla claim? You're not helping the town and you can't exactly fool the scum; they already know your alignment.


wel the mafia don't know if i have a power role or not.



-What did you mean in the second sentence of
Drifter wrote:

yeh, I see what you mean apologies to the townies for that. Unless I turn out not to be a vanilla townie.


see above



Drifter: Why did you ask about mod imposing a deadline in 134?


I asked because I'm knew to the game and wondered if there was a deadline/how long we had before the end of the day.
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Post Post #165 (ISO) » Wed Aug 13, 2008 11:13 am

Post by NabakovNabakov »

Activity has been dissapointing. Pick up the pace people!
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Post Post #166 (ISO) » Wed Aug 13, 2008 11:48 am

Post by lifeofpie »

I stick by my vote. Drifter has been contradictory.

On the other hand, maybe we should kill Sion because his lack of activity hurts the town.

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Post Post #167 (ISO) » Wed Aug 13, 2008 4:31 pm

Post by chapter 5 »

Still here, no new comments as of now.
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Post Post #168 (ISO) » Wed Aug 13, 2008 7:23 pm

Post by Fenchurch »

I'm reluctant to post much at the moment, partly because I don't have anything new to say, but also because I'm reluctant to start looking elsewhere for scumminess before hearing something from Sion or Sion's replacement.
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Post Post #169 (ISO) » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:09 am

Post by Artem »

Also here. I'm waiting to hear from Sion's replacement. Also waiting on ShadowLurker to address my comments if he has anything to say. Still keeping my eye and pressure vote on RandomGem.

Don't really like Drifter's "The scum don't know if I'm a power-role or not". I don't see how he's being helpful or pro-town by playing around with something that borders on fishing.

Also, this
Drifter wrote:
Drifter: Why did you ask about mod imposing a deadline in 134?


I asked because I'm knew to the game and wondered if there was a deadline/how long we had before the end of the day.
doesn't really explain why Drifter asked about a deadline for the second time, immediately following a votecount post.
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Post Post #170 (ISO) » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:04 pm

Post by RandomGem »

Back, everyone!
I can see that my predicting scum tactics was a bad idea, just like I thought it would be. (But I didn't want to erase it since I had spent so much time... :P ) At any rate, my analysis was more revealing what I personally would do, and not exactly a prediction of other people.
About Sion.... I'm willing to guess he's not coming back. Can we have a replacement for him yet?
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Post Post #171 (ISO) » Thu Aug 14, 2008 3:11 pm

Post by thinktank »

Indeed. Waiting for the replacement is a good idea.
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Post Post #172 (ISO) » Sat Aug 16, 2008 8:38 pm

Post by RandomGem »

*yawn*
The waiting continues?
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Post Post #173 (ISO) » Sun Aug 17, 2008 1:17 pm

Post by NabakovNabakov »

I'm still seeking a replacement for Sion, but I remain dissapointed with activity and am not a fan of excuses which fall short of "plague". Get posting!
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Post Post #174 (ISO) » Mon Aug 18, 2008 12:07 pm

Post by ShadowLurker »

Nothing to say in regards to Artem.

Mostly want a replacement for Sion and Drifter to answer questions.
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