Open 788 - Crossfire - Game Over

[Isis]

Do you genuinely consider 880 to be a scummy post? I don't think I'm confbiasing, to the extent it's flawed it looks like genuine effort to solve the game, not disingenuous because there's an agenda

[Casey]

No, I sound very upset because no one is reading his post

I read it. I liked most of it.

[Isis]

"Supreme Leader" is always Hiraki, IV keeps bringing him up at odd times but as far as I can tell he always means Hiraki when he says leader

Raya36-Uhm, honestly everytime I read their posts my mind goes blank, they interact a lot, that's ok yeah. I tried to read their thoughts, got stuck on them thinking Hiraki was town for the same reasons I thought they were evil.

I kind of zone out during Raya's posts too; sometimes that's a scum marker but I feel like Raya has a towny tone or something. Maybe I should be more worried.

[Hiraki]

Do you genuinely consider 880 to be a scummy post? I don't think I'm confbiasing, to the extent it's flawed it looks like genuine effort to solve the game, not disingenuous because there's an agenda

Yes. There are multiple points that show a clear agenda rather than scumhunting. The way it's formatted gives rise to the fact that it looks spotty but I don't think it actually is when you keep people in mind and then put it altogether (myself included). The part about Weyoun are the parts that give me the most redflags when read in collaboration with the other items. Give me an hour, maybe two. It'll be a little large.

[Hiraki]

Let's start out with the following summary of what Nono attempts to do.

1) Clear his own name why he can't be scum.
2) Why A50, Raya, and Evilvilager are the scumteam.
3) Conclusion that takes Weyoun's post and uses it as evidence why two is still correct.

For 1, we have the following rationale -

A) Nono was on Clone since the beginning.
B) Clone OMGUS'd.
C) Nono is too scummy to be scum.

A) This is 100% true. I'm not going to deny that. What I am going to deny is any and all idea that this brags town points. You stuck with a read since RVS, didn't expand on it after RVS, and then hammered it. How are we supposed to think that's town rather than you taking a buss approach? You genuinely fit the bill for a buss "clear" gone wrong. You didn't say anything about clone except vote him out, you just went along with a read from RVS that was a psuedo-OMGUS (which we'll get to in a second). Why on earth would that clear you or take suspicion off of you? If anything that is part of the reason

why

I think your slot is so strange. Acting like a mastermind doesn't help your case once you do this "surprise! I knew I was doing all along!" either. No one picked up on that irony?

B) I want to take this part very slowly because I think we're missing something here. Part of this narrative is screwed in Nono's favor.

1) why it ain’t me

first (real) clone vote,,

Fun started without me!

vote: innocentvillager

I guess voting for everyone gets things going, but as long as it includes me it can't be a correct list

scum

I didn't see the extra pages. O.o

town

snip

town

VOTE: WeyounsLastClone
UNVOTE: hellbooks

second (real) clone vote,,

oops
VOTE: villager
same marksman, VOTE: clone

let me hammer please
kbai

“why did you vote, nono?”? agreed with marksie first post was scummy,, fake confidence on my part, and what did clone do?

NoNo, can you post a bit more coherent thoughts behind your votes?

Vote: NoNo

omgus LOL! think about me as town, for a moment, just a moment, it’s not hard,, that’s scumclaim. scum come after me cause I’m ez delicious bait,, been trying to get scum on my wagon for the whole game (thank me later)

NEVER, and I repeat NEVER, was off clone’s back after that

There's multiple problems here. Kind of want to go backwards because it's easier to think that way for me. First, Nono calls out Weyoun for OMGUSing. I want to make it clear I don't have a problem with this point. I think it's an OMGUS but what I do have a problem with is that Nono considers it to be the end all. This is the

last

we hear about Weyoun. We don't hear anything in comparison to me, just about this OMGUS. An OMGUS on Page 3 is how Nono decided that Weyoun would be scum? If you keep reading on, Marksman actually asks Nono about this -

Perhops.

Nono, I have some very important questions to solve your alignment. I suggest you think carefully about them and answer when you're ready.

1) Why the name "Nono"?
2) Please rank [No, Nah, Nope, Nay] in order of preference.
3) What were you getting at in 286 and 293?

no, non, nono,, just liked it)
meh
repeated "good" point, or should I say "cloned"

I'm pretty convinced by this that Nono had nothing else to post about for Weyoun based on both of these posts, which Nono linked in his original text. I don't see how that "clears" him and it reeks of an early game buss.

C)

it’s not hard,, that’s scumclaim. scum come after me cause I’m ez delicious bait,, been trying to get scum on my wagon for the whole game (thank me later)

The height of the Nono wagon on Day 1 was -

Votecount 1.4

Target	Wagon
innocentvillager (L-2)	Marksman, WeyounsLastClone, Lavender, hellbooks, Chemical Elements, Nono
Nono (L-2)	Isis, innocentvillager, Chemical Elements, Hiraki, WeyounsLastClone, Elements
Isis (L-4)	innocentvillager, Marksman, Chemical Elements, Elements
hellbooks (L-5)	Hiraki, innocentvillager, Elements
Lavender (L-5)	innocentvillager, hellbooks, Chemical Elements
WeyounsLastClone (L-5)	innocentvillager, Marksman, Nono
spicer1209 (L-5)	innocentvillager, Chemical Elements, Marksman
Casey (L-5)	innocentvillager, Chemical Elements, Marksman
Marksman (L-6)	Hiraki, innocentvillager
Hayasaka (L-6)	innocentvillager, Marksman
Hiraki (L-7)	Marksman
Chemical Elements (L-7)	innocentvillager
ileileile (L-7)	innocentvillager
Not Voting (4)	spicer1209, Casey, Hayasaka, ileileile

With 14 alive, it's 8 to dunk on someone.
(expired on 2020-08-16 14:58:59) until our one-time promotional offer ends.

Other than IV, Nono will eventually claim that -

CE is ultra town.
Isis is not part of the game solve.
Hiraki is not part of the game solve.
Elements flipped green.

A50 does join the wagon later but that's not the point. At most, Nono's current 'scuminess' has 3/4 scum on his wagon. How is that too scummy to be scum? It's a majority town wagon from his POV. There's just too much here that Nono says "well, everyone suspected me! Duh! I'm not scum!" that is thrown at the dart board and completely misses.

2) Raya, A50 and EV are the gamesolve?

A) Raya

I want to start here first because I think Raya is the most flagrant use of agenda over scumhunting. Both posts - side by side -

Okay, Raya. You need to look at the reasons I scumread Wey for and determine whether they were legitimate or fabricated ones for a planned bus.

Will do

As far as your first vote on him goes it was the first vote on the wagon aside from inno's vote which doesn't really count.

Correct me if I'm wrong but you scumread him for finding players who haven't posted yet to be suspicious. You questioned him about this which means you were giving him a chance.

You said we should dunk around now when Wey was tied at D-2 and you specifically said you'd be fine with Wey being dunked as well as someone much farther from being dunked. So clearly if you're partners with Wey there was 0 intent of trying to save him. You were off the wagon for a bit and stopped mentioning him so maybe you realized there'd be no saving him and the towncred was better than helping him live.

Then from there you were committed to his dunk as he was the top on your list of who you wanted to dunk next.

Tell me why you couldn't have just been early distancing from Wey then later when he was essentially destined to be dunked bussing him?

You said something about page 15 making you put inno down as town, and Marksman down as scum. Could you go into that?

To clarify it wasn't solely page 15. It just happened to be when I was reading 15 that I felt more confident even unrelated since I was thinking about the past pages as well.

For Inno:
-I had been agreeing with most of what he said
-He was pushing for more activity page 15
-His take in 358 seems more like something scum would turn into a scumread. Not townread them for it. I strongly think that was a more town approach to that read
-359 is good too. Maybe biased since it's my slot and I know I'm town but the fact that he defended a highly voted wagon that's conftown to me when as scum he could have just let it get eliminated. Especially in this set-up. He also continues to defend my slot.

For Marksman:
-Honestly mainly tonal
-Also biased that you keep fighting for my slot to be dunked this page and arguing with Inno who is a pretty strong townread for me
-I disagree with you saying pressure votes don't work
-You also say in 366 that Inno is a bit towny but then have him as number 3 in your dunk list.

BAD,, first paragraph recap, second (part one) “tr because he trd me” is SO WEIRD, when the reasons were SO WEIRD, y’all seeing it??? marksie read is ????

First, Raya is going over the facts and showing her line of logic. What part of the recap itself is actually bad? Second, that recap goes into a question. What exactly is bad about that?

Second for someone who is "too scummy to be scum", where is "TR because he TR'd me"? That doesn't show up

anywhere

in that post. If this is talking about IV's defense, that has nothing to do with a town read and more to do with the defense. It's clear manipulation of the facts to try and say that has to do with "TR because he TR'd me".

Nono then goes over how Raya wants to vote Nono. However, she doesn't. So why does the idea of putting a vote down cause a scumtell? This also makes our count 9/13 which means that 3 people now abnormally never scumread Nono.

I'm going to pause here for now because it's late but I will continue and finish tomorrow. Again - please please please re-read the ending of his post. There's absolutely no one called out there other than trying to clear 3 people at the top because Weyoun is predictable...?

[Raya36]

Never mind, I read this post from Raya again and it really creeps me out.

Okay, Raya. You need to look at the reasons I scumread Wey for and determine whether they were legitimate or fabricated ones for a planned bus.

Will do

As far as your first vote on him goes it was the first vote on the wagon aside from inno's vote which doesn't really count.

Correct me if I'm wrong but you scumread him for finding players who haven't posted yet to be suspicious. You questioned him about this which means you were giving him a chance.

One of the reasons I scumread him was because his biggest suspect was someone with 1 post, yes. Questioning him about this is normal and how you scumhunt. Determining questioning as "giving your scum partner a chance" is really strange.

You said we should dunk around now when Wey was tied at D-2 and you specifically said you'd be fine with Wey being dunked as well as someone much farther from being dunked. So clearly if you're partners with Wey there was 0 intent of trying to save him. You were off the wagon for a bit and stopped mentioning him so maybe you realized there'd be no saving him and the towncred was better than helping him live.

You're starting with the conclusion, and trying to find a suitable reason for it. Like, working backwards from your answer. Why is that more likely than me scumreading and wanting to dunk Wey?

Then from there you were committed to his dunk as he was the top on your list of who you wanted to dunk next.

Tell me why you couldn't have just been early distancing from Wey then later when he was essentially destined to be dunked bussing him?

What's the difference between my early and later interactions with Wey? Where is the transition from distancing to committing to bus? I don't get where you're drawing this stuff from, and concluding it's more likely a bus rather than a natural scumread.

You said something about page 15 making you put inno down as town, and Marksman down as scum. Could you go into that?

To clarify it wasn't solely page 15. It just happened to be when I was reading 15 that I felt more confident even unrelated since I was thinking about the past pages as well.

For Inno:
-I had been agreeing with most of what he said
-He was pushing for more activity page 15
-His take in 358 seems more like something scum would turn into a scumread. Not townread them for it. I strongly think that was a more town approach to that read
-359 is good too. Maybe biased since it's my slot and I know I'm town but the fact that he defended a highly voted wagon that's conftown to me when as scum he could have just let it get eliminated. Especially in this set-up. He also continues to defend my slot.

For Marksman:
-Honestly mainly tonal
-Also biased that you keep fighting for my slot to be dunked this page and arguing with Inno who is a pretty strong townread for me
-I disagree with you saying pressure votes don't work
-You also say in 366 that Inno is a bit towny but then have him as number 3 in your dunk list.

Talked about this in 791.

Almost all of the reasons seem really fake, but the only reason I'm hesitant is because why does scum!Raya enter the game scumreading Marksman over other people who had more votes?

She doesn't

I'll respond to the rest of this in detail tonight

[Raya36]

I'm having my doubts on how much we can analyse based on the flips. Since you came up with the suggestion, do you have any ideas?

Let me address the first part first: If we can't analyze flips, then what exactly is our source to develop our reads?

Now the second part:

WeyounsLastClone (L-0) innocentvillager, Marksman, Hayasaka, Casey, Elements, Nono, Chemical Elements, Isis

Hayasaka (L-0) innocentvillager, hellbooks, Nono, Isis, Elements, Marksman, Chemical Elements

hellbooks (L-0) Hiraki, Elements, Isis, Chemical Elements, innocentvillager, spicer(as Raya), Nono

Elements (L-0) Casey, Hiraki, Marksman, spicer(as Raya), innocentvillager, Nono

IV is on all dunks so far (bad), but he was first on Wey and had plenty of time to change that if he wanted to avoid that dubk (good). IMHO, the "good" outweighs the "bad" here, so I think IV is a townie who has been misplaying (or has been having bad reads), This is supported by the fact he is voting nobody (as of the post I'm responding to) which means he realized his reads have not been accurate and is reconsidering. I can fully understand a townie who had a boost from a red flip and got too confident to also lead a misdunk, then trying to be more of a team player (wasn't leading either of the last 2 misdunks) and then taking a deep breath to reevaluate.

Marksman also was early on Wey. He was late on Hayaska, not on hb and appears again on Elements. On surface he should appear even more townie to me than IV is, but I somehow find IV a bit townier and I don't even know why. Still a TR though.

Casey was on the scum dunk and only one of the 3 misdunks. I don't think I need to explain why that appears to be a town slot based on that.

Nono is another slot that appears on all dunks so far, but -unlike IV- she was late to the party on Wey. She also hammered twice (hb & Elements) and appears to have adopted this shtick to disclaim responsibility of her votes. "I saw a hammer and I took it". Looks bad to me.

You (Chemical) I have explained why you also look bad despite not having been on Elements (which probably happened too fast for you to hop on, maybe?). Still, even if you could have been on Elements and chose not too; it happened after I had pointed out 5 players were on all first 3 dunks. (or it could've been because Elements was one of those 5 you didn't want him dunked??)

Isis also on all first 3 dunks, but not Elements. I don't know how I feel about her actually hammering Wey though. If scum bus'd Wey then it's in you, Nono & Isis.

I probably have nothing solid for Hiraki or Raya

based on VCA

alone

, They both weren't on the first two but appear on the last two. However, taking their posts into consideration I think they are town leans. Both of them. And besides Spicer wasn't active, so couldn't have been on the early dunks anyway regardless of alignment.

That leaves Lavender as the odd slot that doesn't appear on ANY dunk (aside from my own slot that is) and I can't tell what she's doing/thinking given that I dunno how her scum game looks like. That's a true null here (would have been a town lean in any "normal" game).

As for my slot, I have explained why I was against being "vote-happy" like a dozen times already.

Assuming you are the next dunk: If you flip red I would probably be more aggressive towards Nono/Isis there, as it would appear you were trying to protect your team (by assuming scum didn't bus). If you somehow flip green I'd still be sus of the two, but I would have no case.

This is good
A50 can be town now

[Marksman]

Casey, Isis, Nono is the city trinity.

Inno has a bunch of towny posts but the tone is something I don't know if I can fully get over and allow him to endgame with.

@Hiraki - What's your read on your supreme follower?

[Marksman]

Sorry sorry, I didn't expect for me to be gone that long, some IRL things that I don't want to think about.
I'm going to go ahead and re-read this game and see what I come up with.
So I can actually be of some use! ٩(•̤̀ᵕ•̤́๑)

UNVOTE: Lavender

What in that post from Lav triggered an unvote?

[Marksman]

First, Raya is going over the facts and showing her line of logic. What part of the recap itself is actually bad? Second, that recap goes into a question. What exactly is bad about that?

I criticized Raya on this too. Do you disagree with my reasons?

[Marksman]

Lavender's reasons in her read list are meh, and some are NAI, but her tone feels genuine. Gonna compare it with similar looking readlists I found in her other games later.

Can't believe no one's stating their reads on Ruby Red though... what if she's feeling left out?

Ruby Red - Can be a little quiet, but is very proactive when it comes to providing VCs to help town see where they are, and for valuable VCA later down the line.

@Ruby Red

: Why aren't you putting your vote down?

[Isis]

I don't comment on Ruby Red cause I don't know her meta

[Isis]

Sorry sorry, I didn't expect for me to be gone that long, some IRL things that I don't want to think about.
I'm going to go ahead and re-read this game and see what I come up with.
So I can actually be of some use! ٩(•̤̀ᵕ•̤́๑)

UNVOTE: Lavender

What in that post from Lav triggered an unvote?

It just didn't take much because I feel pretty narrowly interested in a Chemical Elements dunk right now anyway. I don't even remember clearly whether that sentiment made me unvote her previous to that post.
I think you'd agree she delivered.

[Casey]

@Hiraki: "Acting like a mastermind doesn't help your case once you do this 'surprise! I knew I was doing all along!' either."

Maybe it's a surprise to you, but to those of us who had been paying attention to Nono, we already knew this.


"First, Nono calls out Weyoun for OMGUSing. I want to make it clear I don't have a problem with this point. I think it's an OMGUS but what I do have a problem with is that Nono considers it to be the end all. This is the last we hear about Weyoun. We don't hear anything in comparison to me, just about this OMGUS. An OMGUS on Page 3 is how Nono decided that Weyoun would be scum?"

Sounds legit to me. Catching a mafia on page 3 and then seeing evidence pile up beyond that isn't that far-fetched.


"I don't see how that "clears" him and it reeks of an early game buss."

And yet my posts about Wey were nearly the same and I'm magically town to you. Uh huh.


"There's just too much here that Nono says 'well, everyone suspected me! Duh! I'm not scum!' that is thrown at the dart board and completely misses."

I agree with this. But Nono is town for other reasons.


"First, Raya is going over the facts and showing her line of logic. What part of the recap itself is actually bad?"

What is up with you defending Raya?

[Hiraki]

@Hiraki - What's your read on your supreme follower?

I am slowly but surely getting town vibes. It has taken awhile though.

First, Raya is going over the facts and showing her line of logic. What part of the recap itself is actually bad? Second, that recap goes into a question. What exactly is bad about that?

I criticized Raya on this too. Do you disagree with my reasons?

Almost all of the reasons seem really fake, but the only reason I'm hesitant is because why does scum!Raya enter the game scumreading Marksman over other people who had more votes?

These reasons? Am I even supposed to believe they are legitimate?

Flawed "correlation = causation" arguments are the words I was looking for regarding that Raya post.

Here's the thing that I can smell that you want to be wrong.

You're starting with the conclusion, and trying to find a suitable reason for it. Like, working backwards from your answer. Why is that more likely than me scumreading and wanting to dunk Wey?

Meanwhile, here's what Raya said:

You said we should dunk around now when Wey was tied at D-2 and you specifically said you'd be fine with Wey being dunked as well as someone much farther from being dunked. So clearly if you're partners with Wey there was 0 intent of trying to save him. You were off the wagon for a bit and stopped mentioning him so maybe you realized there'd be no saving him and the towncred was better than helping him live.

Meanwhile, here was your question to Raya -

Okay, Raya. You need to look at the reasons I scumread Wey for and determine whether they were legitimate or fabricated ones for a planned bus.

So why can't she do that again? Because she needs to take exactly what you said for granted?

@Hiraki: "Acting like a mastermind doesn't help your case once you do this 'surprise! I knew I was doing all along!' either."

Maybe it's a surprise to you, but to those of us who had been paying attention to Nono, we already knew this.

This has literally nothing to do with my point but thanks for the small jab!

"First, Nono calls out Weyoun for OMGUSing. I want to make it clear I don't have a problem with this point. I think it's an OMGUS but what I do have a problem with is that Nono considers it to be the end all. This is the last we hear about Weyoun. We don't hear anything in comparison to me, just about this OMGUS. An OMGUS on Page 3 is how Nono decided that Weyoun would be scum?"

Sounds legit to me. Catching a mafia on page 3 and then seeing evidence pile up beyond that isn't that far-fetched.

Which is why Nono references all of this evidence, right?

"I don't see how that "clears" him and it reeks of an early game buss."

And yet my posts about Wey were nearly the same and I'm magically town to you. Uh huh.

Again - has literally nothing to do with what I'm talking about but thanks for the slight jab!

[Hiraki]

So why can't she do that again? Because she needs to take exactly what you said for granted?

Just to go into this more, my point is that it feels like you expected a rationale from Raya and since you didn't get it, she must be scum?

[Marksman]

I wanted her to talk about my reasons for scumreading Wey and whether she found them legitimate or bussy. Instead, she looked at what I did (like scumreading and committing to dunk Wey) and then tried to draw conclusions of how that could come from scum, instead of thinking about what scum is likely to do, and then seeing whether that's what I was doing. So again, working backwards from the conclusion.

[Marksman]

I don't comment on Ruby Red cause I don't know her meta

She votes people usually, as seen here:

oh shit i forgot to VOTE: georgebailey

However, she did forget to for a while in that game, which is why I'm giving her a chance to put it down now.

[Hiraki]

I wanted her to talk about my reasons for scumreading Wey and whether she found them legitimate or bussy. Instead, she looked at what I did (like scumreading and committing to dunk Wey) and then tried to draw conclusions of how that could come from scum, instead of thinking about what scum is likely to do, and then seeing whether that's what I was doing. So again, working backwards from the conclusion.

What permits scum not to be able to buss based on reasoning? Wouldn't timing be more important? Ignoring the facts until it's less convenient to do so? I don't get your point here about reasoning. It's feeling more and more like a gotcha.

[Marksman]

There's no argument on timing either. I was voting and pushing Wey start to end, which is why I asked Raya for where her suggestion of me transitioning from distancing to bussing happens. What exactly is the "gotcha"? I don't get it.

[Isis]

I'm getting lost..

[Marksman]

What's not to get? Ruby Red usually votes people, but hasn't this game. It's suspicious but she can be forgetful, so I'm asking her why she hasn't voted anyone yet.

[Isis]

I meant the nonmemey argument you were having

I want to know why Chemical Elements isn't dying even though no one is defending him

[Hiraki]

No you didn't. You posted about his RVS, we had a discussion about him, you told him that you couldn't really gauge his alignment from your previous question, and then you said you were worried about his number one scumread. Sure, you left your vote on him. That isn't pushing though.

[Marksman]

Stating him as my preferred dunk, and pointing out things from him I find scummy

is

pushing.

Mm, still disagree that what's spicer's done is town-indicative, but I can see why you'd believe it.

I think inno arguing down a lhf dunk counterwagon with reasoning he seems to believe is a little towny?

I want to dunk one of these 3 today:
Wey
Elem
Inno

In that order of preference.

as especially in this game with no deadlines scum could just wait, ask for replacement, wait, ask for replacement. If we purely judge by content, and there is none, they shouldn't be fully safe.

This is another weird read. You think scum would just replace out one after another in an attempt to say nothing and win? That's just...

weird

, and I don't know if you really believe that.

That's not even the point of the argument though. What is this "gotcha moment" you were talking about?