Open 790 | Purgatory | Game Over!

[Cthylla]

Well, he had me as his designated scumread in his readlist, but I was the one who started casing and pushing him. It's only natural scum!him pushes back and counters rather than eat that scumread.

Your point that if he thought things through, he'd realise town would be less inclined to heaven him if they thought he was tunneled on me is interesting, but I don't think that always enters his mind or has a big influence in how he reacts to me.

[clidd]

You're giving me mixfeelings, Hectic.

The things you remember about me you shouldn't be able to remember, so there is a chance you did a search of that, but I don't know why you would.

[clidd]

I'm good with Hayasaka on heaven.

[Cthylla]

Why do you think I shouldn't be able to remember it? It's an important detail in reading you.

[clidd]

I think I'm underestimating your memory. I don't remember very well those two games.

[clidd]

VOTE: Hayasaka

[clidd]

I think I'm underestimating your memory. I don't remember very well those two games.

So I wasn't expecting.

But it's towny for you using this info to read me.

[Hayasaka]

I town read too many people.

[clidd]

I was going to say that ^

[Dannflor]

I town read too many people.

it's especially scary when you know there's a disproportionate amount of scum to town

[Cthylla]

Who exactly do you townread, Hayasaka?

[Hayasaka]

Who exactly do you townread, Hayasaka?

Clidd, GC, Dann.

Issue is you and Isis are also giving me town vibes.

That leaves exactly Norwei and Walter. Which just feels like low hanging fruit and not proper scum reads that aren't shit.

In a 2 scum game this would be a fine place to be, but in a 3 scum game it just feels like I am griefing

[clidd]

I can see we being wrong on Dann, but I'll know when I sort Cth/Walter.

[Hayasaka]

I can see we being wrong on Dann, but I'll know when I sort Cth/Walter.

I want to see which of my lower reads flips scum before I start to worry which of my upper reads is town. Deviating from that approach typically results in town losses.
But maybe it's Dann, can't say with my current info. And we could easily just happen to be right here.

[clidd]

That's true. I think the biggest difficulty will be to measure Walter in AI terms, maybe even more than Cth.

[clidd]

Well, I'll take a break.

Back later.

[Hayasaka]

Now that Crossfire is done and I've officially seen Isis play scum.
I have no new information I'd like to add to my read.

That is all.

[Isis]

My other thing on why I am unsure if I can vote Isis is it's basically what everyone's secondary option is.

yeah this is what keeps giving me the heebie jeebies

I also don't think it's the end of the world if we heaven Isis!scum

but maybe she is not the town read I need to check right now

I am not against sending her to heaven ever based on this read. I am just hesitant to do it right now.
I actually think after we flip our first scum she would be a great target. If we send scum to heaven on the first phase we have to lynch scum otherwise we lose since no one will be able to properly "judge" us.

I think you misunderstand the setup, you also said this earlier making some "what if there's no one to judge" post. It's impossible to not have a judge. If scum is heavened this phase, next phase isn't a 4:3, it's a 5:2. Then in the worst case scenario, town is helled and it's 4:2. Then heaven 2 phase always resolves the "no judge" problem, either town is heavened, providing at least one judge for the rest of the game, or scum is heavened, and the game ends so it's moot

Isis you wouldn’t try to pocket me as scum would you

That would be rather bulli

I wouldn't. If you continue to be one of the scummiest slots in this game I don't expect you should have to be paranoid about it. You're doing a lot of townreading people without reasoning and I'm not an immediate buyer that you actually think you are so damn good at mafia that heavening one of your (infallible) townreads and leaving yourself in the game so you can carry is better EV than heavening yourself if you know you have town PM. You're above average at town but not transcendent, and I don't even think it's a defensible line if you're transcendently good.
It's too many steps beyond just being confident that if you're heavened you can take lots of correct judgment day shots.
I guess it's possible you think that. At this point so many people in the game have posted "oh no, I doth not really wish to ascend to the greatness" that I think someone has suggested that is a good posture in a PT. I don't remember anybody opposing their own heavening in the first purgatory.

I am pretty tired of the fancy play syndrome of heavening people who might flip scum and I would like to drag clidd kicking and screaming into hell please.
D3 4:3 isn't eLo, it's not good to post those numbers to elicit fear. It's essentially 5:3 due to the heavened town deciding a subsequent phase.

[Dannflor]

I'm not an immediate buyer that you actually think you are so damn good at mafia that heavening one of your (infallible) townreads and leaving yourself in the game so you can carry is better EV than heavening yourself if you know you have town PM

I'm confused

my reasoning for not wanting to go to heaven is exactly that i think my reads are generally bad and I shouldn't be in charge of judgement day

[Dannflor]

like my ability to carry is decidedly not one of my strong suits in mafia and I am well aware of that

[Isis]

That doesn't make any sense, there would be people to sheep in the game thread.

like
there is putting yourself into roles that are optimal for you
and then there is risking heavening scum, which is akin to helling town
I think town!you knows that the latter is an overbearing consideration but scum!you likes having a colorable argument that lets you lamist around a bit

putting infallible in quotes wasn't meant to suggest your own strength you're extolling is read accuracy, it's to point out that all of it is so uncertain it's just really bad

[Isis]

maybe I'm just crankyjealous cause everyone is talking about their new puberty xmen power at show and tell and I am just like "actually I kind of think the longer I survive in mafia games the more I throw them, oh- oh."

[Dannflor]

You're doing a lot of townreading people without reasoning

I have exactly three town reads right now

I don't think clidd is necessary for me to expand on

Hayasaka oozes so much sincereness in every post that I don't think I'm ever going to not town read her. Like I could make up some more legitimate sounding reason to town read her slot but that doesn't change the truth of the matter that every time I scroll through her ISO I see a post that either has emotion that strikes me as town or a thought process that consistently strikes me as town. As far as the latter little things like pushing me or Walter or heaven seem very out of left field even if she were partnered with Walter for example

You, I town read for similar reasons to Hayasaka but it's less strong in that you've made no push or stated no read where I'm like "well why would Isis do that as scum." However, I do feel as though you haven't been playing to get town read necessarily. You are open about wanting to go to heaven. The method with which you've posted catchups hasn't been motivated by getting town read as I've perceived it but by being a townie with a mafia addiction who needs to comment on everything

I was town reading GC very strongly for a brief moment and I'm trying to remember what sparked that but I do not and I cannot find it right now

[Dannflor]

That doesn't make any sense, there would be people to sheep in the game thread.

like
there is putting yourself into roles that are optimal for you
and then there is risking heavening scum, which is akin to helling town
I think town!you knows that the latter is an overbearing consideration but scum!you likes having a colorable argument that lets you lamist around a bit

putting infallible in quotes wasn't meant to suggest your own strength you're extolling is read accuracy, it's to point out that all of it is so uncertain it's just really bad

yeah

I think you are right and I am wrong

I was putting too much weight on judgement day needing to have super solver pants mc solver there because I compare the heaven thread to the dead thread in Vengeful Ghosts and the judgements that happened in that thread required triple digit pages

but I don't think anyone here was in that game so that means nothing to anyone

anyway I was wrong

[Dannflor]

maybe I'm just crankyjealous cause everyone is talking about their new puberty xmen power at show and tell and I am just like "actually I kind of think the longer I survive in mafia games the more I throw them, oh- oh."

i was just thinking like oh if I'm with everyone else I can get talked out of my bad reads but if I'm in heaven I can conf bias to hell and back (no pun intended)