Micro 963—Kids With Lungs GAME OVER

Micro Games (9 players or fewer). Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #225 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:11 am

Post by Jake The Wolfie »

You've also yet to explain why my plan of the IC outing is a bad idea. The odds of any non-IC town's odds of executing scum jump from 2/4 to 2/3. If the mafia suicides on the IC, we then gain info of who one of the mafia is, when we currently have 0 mafia flips. I see little downside to this.
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Post Post #226 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:14 am

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

cuz if the IC lives into day 3 we basically have a 50:50 to win the game and if the IC outs himself now, he will not live to D3
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Post Post #227 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:15 am

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

Also the probability argument is dumb because I assume if the IC is possibly going to get exec'd he would just use his ability instead of getting exec'd
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"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

-Norwee
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Post Post #228 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:22 am

Post by Jake The Wolfie »

The tradeoff between keeping IC for D3 and them outing now is mafia information.
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Post Post #229 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:23 am

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

what information r u talking about
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It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

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Post Post #230 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:32 am

Post by Gamma Emerald »

In post 225, Jake The Wolfie wrote:You've also yet to explain why my plan of the IC outing is a bad idea. The odds of any non-IC town's odds of executing scum jump from 2/4 to 2/3. If the mafia suicides on the IC, we then gain info of who one of the mafia is, when we currently have 0 mafia flips. I see little downside to this.
I think ur math is wrong
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Post Post #231 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:35 am

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

like here's how the math works.

we have 2/5 chance of hitting a scum if we lynch randomly right now. (2 scum / 5 players)

we have 1/2 chance of hitting a scum if we lynch randomly after IC reveal. (2 scum / 4 players)

However,

If someone is being run up and about to get lynched.. and he is the IC - I assume he will claim at that point..

So there is NO point for the IC to use his ability now since it will not improve the odds in town favor at all.
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-MariaR


"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

-Norwee
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Post Post #232 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:36 am

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

the reason there is no point is because the odds of IC being lynched should be 0 - > since if he was actually in danger of being lynched he could just use his ability and put us back to the 2/4 game-state - hence the probability of the IC being lynched is actually 0 in this game state as long as we play optimally and nobody does anything stupid.
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"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR


"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

-Norwee
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Post Post #233 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:54 am

Post by Jake The Wolfie »

If the Mafia doesn't kill the IC after they reveal, then there is a reasonable doubt in the suicider bomber's mind that their oartner wouldn't survive an association cross examination.
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Post Post #234 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:56 am

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

what.

why would the mafia suicide bomb the IC?
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"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

-Norwee
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Post Post #235 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:56 am

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

like your logic makes no sense

r u just baiting at this point?
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"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR


"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

-Norwee
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Post Post #236 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:57 am

Post by Jake The Wolfie »

In post 234, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:what.

why would the mafia suicide bomb the IC?
Bring the odds back down.
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Post Post #237 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:58 am

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

you cant be that bad at math
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"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR


"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

-Norwee
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Post Post #238 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:58 am

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

suicide bombing the IC is equivalent to lynching a mafia and then nightkilling the IC
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"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR


"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

-Norwee
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Post Post #239 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:58 am

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

like have you never played mafia or something !?@?
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"I hope one day I can openly play as wolfy as Pooky and get zero pressure for it grumble grumble."
-MariaR


"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

-Norwee
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Post Post #240 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:59 am

Post by Jake The Wolfie »

In post 235, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:like your logic makes no sense

r u just baiting at this point?
You're assuming that I'm scum again, and that my argument must then be flawed. Stop that. An argument stands alone from it's source.
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Post Post #241 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:59 am

Post by Gamma Emerald »

In post 233, Jake The Wolfie wrote:If the Mafia doesn't kill the IC after they reveal, then there is a reasonable doubt in the suicider bomber's mind that their oartner wouldn't survive an association cross examination.
You know, this logic actually holds up
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Post Post #242 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:02 am

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

ok lets objectively approach your argument

why would a mafia suicide bomber decide to trade 1:1 with the IC?


Let's say the game state is 2 mafia : 2 town : 1 revealed IC.

Now if the town succeeds in lynching 1 of the mafia - (50% probability) then the game state advances to:

1 mafia : 2 town (mafia kills IC at night)

So it's about 50% chance the town succeeds D2 and gets to this game state.


What you are saying is going to happen - is that Mafia will suicide bomb the IC when he reveals and advance us to this game state:

1 Mafia: 2 town

for free...

which makes no sense - why does mafia give up the 50% chance to win?
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-MariaR


"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

-Norwee
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Post Post #243 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:04 am

Post by Jake The Wolfie »

In post 242, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:ok lets objectively approach your argument

why would a mafia suicide bomber decide to trade 1:1 with the IC?


Let's say the game state is 2 mafia : 2 town : 1 revealed IC.

Now if the town succeeds in lynching 1 of the mafia - (50% probability) then the game state advances to:

1 mafia : 2 town (mafia kills IC at night)

So it's about 50% chance the town succeeds D2 and gets to this game state.


What you are saying is going to happen - is that Mafia will suicide bomb the IC when he reveals and advance us to this game state:

1 Mafia: 2 town

for free...

which makes no sense - why does mafia give up the 50% chance to win?
If they are certain that they won't be able to survive that 50%, because the town coagulate into a somewhat functional block.
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Post Post #244 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:05 am

Post by Jake The Wolfie »

Also, let me remind you what we are in: ExLo. Which means that any incorrect vote can pretty much fuck us over of the mafia react fast enough.
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Post Post #245 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:05 am

Post by Gamma Emerald »

Actually I just remembered Mafia can 100% just kill the IC at night
Yeah IC probably shouldn’t out unless under threat of being voted
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Post Post #246 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:08 am

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

nobody should be voting
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That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

-Norwee
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Post Post #247 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:09 am

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

In post 243, Jake The Wolfie wrote:If they are certain that they won't be able to survive that 50%, because the town coagulate into a somewhat functional block.
suicide bombing = 100% 1:1 mafia town trade

play it out = <100% 1:1 mafia town trade
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-MariaR


"I can't even look at the game anymore.
That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

-Norwee
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Post Post #248 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:12 am

Post by Jake The Wolfie »

In post 247, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:
In post 243, Jake The Wolfie wrote:If they are certain that they won't be able to survive that 50%, because the town coagulate into a somewhat functional block.
suicide bombing = 100% 1:1 mafia town trade

play it out = <100% 1:1 mafia town trade
Suicide bombing also reduces the amount of mafia needing to vote someone to execute to 1.
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Post Post #249 (ISO) » Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:14 am

Post by Gamma Emerald »

I get a sneaking suspicion Ico and luncheon are just waiting in the shadows for one of us to vote each other (and this IC talk doesn’t really affect that if anyone is wondering)
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