Mini Theme 2158: Cards of Destiny Mafia Game Over

[Flavor Leaf]

Really something’s just kind of off to me.

I feel like I should have been able to start a wagon on Ampharos, but instead, the momentum shifted to DnD, and that’s just this kind of weird dynamic that I’m not sure how to think about.

So Kamane/Ampharos are my leading scum candidates, however I don’t think they’re scum together, but it’s not impossible

They’ve both done townie things as well.

This also leads me to believe Jjh could be a partner of theirs based on Jjh’s possible setup towards me earlier with that one post he made

[Flavor Leaf]

Kamane because them and I were voting Ampharos, and Kamane also disappeared during DnD momentum

[Flavor Leaf]

I don’t necessarily think they disappeared on purpose, it just happened while they weren’t around

[Hayasaka]

I am gladiating later tonight if I see no objections.
On one hand I don't have the proper time to put into this game.
On the other hand I don't view my actions as changing.

[Hayasaka]

If you guys are flithy stallers who value "talking" in your social games.
Then I can wait until the deadline reads "8 days remaining".
Gamma asked for a timer but I'd rather everyone just follow the actual deadline timer then some made up Hayasaka timer and the actual deadline.

[Gamma Emerald]

I am gladiating later tonight if I see no objections.
On one hand I don't have the proper time to put into this game.
On the other hand I don't view my actions as changing.

This sounds good
I think we can 100% still talk for a little bit during the gladiate anyways

[Raven Branwen]

I am gladiating later tonight if I see no objections.
On one hand I don't have the proper time to put into this game.
On the other hand I don't view my actions as changing.

While I have no reason to not to sr NM and of course a scumflip is a scumflip and always good. if you think Amy could also be scum, then that would have the added benefit of very likely spewing Tris town and maybe possibly KD as well and if Amy continues to make these wolfy looking pop ins without making any attempt to satisfactorily answer my questions, meaningfully attempt to sort Tris or engage with her in their PT, then you might want to seriously consider which of their flips helps advance the gamestate the most, so I’m advocating we wait for Amy to respond to these things before you make that decision.

~Mars

[Venus Mars and Pluto]

I am gladiating later tonight if I see no objections.
On one hand I don't have the proper time to put into this game.
On the other hand I don't view my actions as changing.

While I have no reason to not to sr NM and of course a scumflip is a scumflip and always good. if you think Amy could also be scum, then that would have the added benefit of very likely spewing Tris town and maybe possibly KD as well and if Amy continues to make these wolfy looking pop ins without making any attempt to satisfactorily answer my questions, meaningfully attempt to sort Tris or engage with her in their PT, then you might want to seriously consider which of their flips helps advance the gamestate the most, so I’m advocating we wait for Amy to respond to these things before you make that decision.

~Mars

Crap

[tris]

i'd certainly like to hear from Amy.

i also want to hear from jjh wrt his Amy read

[Gamma Emerald]

The thing is, Mars, if Haya gladiates DrP, assuming DrP is what he says he is, scum still can’t rest easy the rest of this day. There’s nothing so far thing DrP to venting NM. We can discuss that whole deal while the gladiate is going.

[Hayasaka]

I challenge DrPepper to a duel!

I mean the choice comes down to who DrP venges not who I choose to gladiate.
Waiting isn't going to change anything on review.

[Hayasaka]

Because the main discussion is still DrP do this.

[DoctorPepper]

Fair point. Good luck town.

The night action was Modified Watcher (can see how many visited but not who). I felt that revealing that would not have done good.

Anywho, leaning towards NM but open to hearing suggestions

[Ampharos]

my mind focused, my thoughts pure, i once again return to this den of debauchery and sin, prepared to let it etch its black mark upon my unstained soul

[Ampharos]

First, these.

do it no balls

i have no idea

yes. unless you gladiate a player i don't townread. then it's good play.

the only offwagon i confidently TR is Hayasaka. let me see if i can remember what my other reads this game actually are.

Hmm, I guess I missed those.

@Amy, @KD , why are you encouraging gladiate over a regular execution? I agree with Tris that it’s suboptimal unless you have a wagon with excessive resistance and yeah, don’t like either’s reaction to the gladiate.

~M

So I was under the impression that saying "do it no balls" followed by a sincere answer under a spoiler was a pretty clear indicator that what I was saying was a joke. If not, I apologize.

To answer what may perhaps be the underlying question of "why did you not immediately shoot down the gladiate plan", I'm under the impression that Haya gets a buff for gladiating, no? And I'm townreading Haya. So while I understand gladiation probably tanks wagonomics, I DO like it from the standpoint of "maximizing the performance of one of our PRs".

As I type this I realize the obvious flaw of "yeah but then they just kill Haya", but that's a thought I didn't have until literally just now.

i'm only convinced he's town because elimming him is the correct play. assuming scum is aware of that, claiming vengeful is just a shortcut to Pepper being eliminated.

if i were to say the claim makes him town and therefore we should elim someone else, then the claim no longer makes him town because i've just given reason for scum to make the claim.

So, you think we should either execute/Hya gladiate Pepper and have him venge NM/Amy/jjh, correct?

I wouldn’t support jjh. Not opposed to NM. If Amy flips scum, than Tris is probably spewed town from that, since extremely unlikely to have an SvS hood and obviously vice-versa.

@Amy, can we get a current readslist please?

And what is your current read on Tris?

~M

My reads have largely unanchored themselves due to my current thread detatchment, but let's see if I can't sort out what I'm feeling rn.

[Hayasaka, VMP]
[BEF, tris, jjh]
[Gamma, FL, KD]
[Not_Mafia]

Dr. Pepper omitted; I think he's probably town, but he's the correct dunk anyways, so whatever.

I feel comfortable putting N_M at the bottom of that list, and I feel comfortable putting Haya/VMP where I have them. The rest of the list is somewhat in flux; the second tier rises above the third tier for reasons that at the end of the day are fairly thin.

For BEF, I really really liked how he opened today; I thought the approach felt like one that's more likely a town opener than scum opener.

tris was one of my strongest early townreads, and decays largely due to PoE reasons + probably my own personal detachment from the thread in general and that read in particular. She's not

really

on my radar here; her lack of being in the top tier is largely just paranoia on my part.

jjh's position is largely due to the fact that I believe the scumread on Pooky in the announcement was given in a way that didn't look like a wolf trying to pull the "oops I tried to scumread this player that got nightkilled, guess I'm town" trick. It was a super strong read, but also written super casually and didn't try to call attention to itself. I find that when wolves try to go for that, they do it with their big flashy focus reads, not a quick one line "yeah Pooky's scum" sort of thing.

Which leaves Gamma, FL, KD largely PoEd into the next tier. Priority over the next two day phases (as I 100% believe that N_M is the correct venge here) is solving those slots.

@Amy, do you have any other games - preferably both a towngame and a scumgame I could look at?

~M

@KD, @Ampharos, why isn’t it concerning either of you that your strongest scumread is voting identically to you?

@Amy, any particular reasons you continue to ignore every single question I keep asking you?

~M

cause I keep not seeing 'em tbh. been busy lol

[Ampharos]

oh dammit i still missed one

grabbing some games brb

[Ampharos]

2nd most recent wolfgame, and probably my best wolfgame ever

most recent completed towngame, which was an extremely low-effort affair where i still managed to die on n2

most recent completed towngame in which i tryharded (died n2 again)

[Ampharos]

Spoiler:

do it no balls

i have no idea

yes. unless you gladiate a player i don't townread. then it's good play.

the only offwagon i confidently TR is Hayasaka. let me see if i can remember what my other reads this game actually are.

Hmm, I guess I missed those.

@Amy, @KD , why are you encouraging gladiate over a regular execution? I agree with Tris that it’s suboptimal unless you have a wagon with excessive resistance and yeah, don’t like either’s reaction to the gladiate.

~M

i'm only convinced he's town because elimming him is the correct play. assuming scum is aware of that, claiming vengeful is just a shortcut to Pepper being eliminated.

if i were to say the claim makes him town and therefore we should elim someone else, then the claim no longer makes him town because i've just given reason for scum to make the claim.

So, you think we should either execute/Hya gladiate Pepper and have him venge NM/Amy/jjh, correct?

I wouldn’t support jjh. Not opposed to NM. If Amy flips scum, than Tris is probably spewed town from that, since extremely unlikely to have an SvS hood and obviously vice-versa.

@Amy, can we get a current readslist please?

And what is your current read on Tris?

~M

@Amy, do you have any other games - preferably both a towngame and a scumgame I could look at?

~M

@KD, @Ampharos, why isn’t it concerning either of you that your strongest scumread is voting identically to you?

@Amy, any particular reasons you continue to ignore every single question I keep asking you?

~M

@Amy

~M

One more question @Amy, which you will probably continue to ignore and think I probably won’t notice is:

Why do you have absolutely no reaction whatsoever to either Tris voting you or FL sr you?

~M

tris's vote i didn't notice

FL's suspicion i'm aware of and am still parsing. probably going to require some backreading to form a coherent thought on it. still largely trying to get a feel for FL as a person/player so i can calibrate my "how would i expect him to behave as town" sensors

[Ampharos]

i have no fucking clue what the votecount is and as such will not be voting to try to avoid hammering until i'm good and ready

i'm spiritually on DrP, obviously

[Ampharos]

there are probably 3 wolves left

my PoE is effectively 4 people atm

this means i'm PROBABLY misclearing someone - presumably someone in that second tier, unless VMP are playing a very very strong wolfgame

if i'm not i'll gladly accept the inevitable postgame adoration and fawning but let's take it one step at a time

[Ampharos]

mm

gamma's probably town for that flavorclaim, actually

and i honestly think FL may be town too?

so where am i getting bamboozled

[Ampharos]

let me rework that readslist

==strong v==
Hayasaka
VMP

==weaker v==
jjh
BEF
Gamma

==weakest v==
tris
Flavor Leaf

==scumlean via PoE==
KD

==kill this==
Not_Mafia

[Ampharos]

if i'm lazy and lock in a scumread on KD i arrive at a team of N_M/KD and... probably one of tris/BEF. of all the people in the middle 2 tiers, they're probably the ones with the weakest/laziest reasons to be there? lots of gut impressions, not a ton of empirical analysis

[Ampharos]

whatever the team is i think we're in a pretty damn good spot if N_M's scum, or potentially a very bad spot if N_M's town

i continue to believe that he's very probably scum due to his just... abject refusal to play the game. like villagers who don't give a shit and wolves who don't give a shit look very different in their postings, ime. this is the sort of slot that flips red nine times out of ten, and you just complain in the host's DMs if you happened to roll the 10th

given that, i think the venge is the cleanest solution, cause it essentially turns the dunk into a vig shot hybrid. we're not gonna have full wagonomics on this venge, i'd rather save the more active slots for days where we're actually gonna vote for who to kill

[Ampharos]

i have thoughts on tris but ask me again tomorrow