Mini Theme 2158: Cards of Destiny Mafia Game Over

[Gamma Emerald]

i have a few problems with jjh. his read on FL especially, where he goes from being suspicious of FL and then saying he's reevaluated and that this is probably town FL, with no explanation besides that he agrees with FL that if FL were scum, jjh would have been nightkilled.

i'm just not seeing the solving he's promised. his only SR is tris and it's based off the idea that Ampharos could never have been the nightkill.

i see Gamma's reasoning for townreading jjh, but what's stopping scum jjh from making that "Pooky might be scum" crier message with the knowledge that Pooky is going down that night?

That’s probably just personal experience coloring my thoughts regarding that. I’d just had a game finish with Pooky being scum and being more articulate there. So I was thinking Pooky was probably town here, then I see he is killed and jjh says Pooky is scummy via crier message, idk why but that hit in a way that felt towny.
The thing that concerns me about the n1 message, tbh, is that he dropped everyone’s names except his own, a bit of a painfully obvious indication he is the one talking. Looking critically my takes are a) it seems like he’s trying to appear more towny by discussing as many people as possible, and b) it seems a bit assured of not being the nightkill, as he’s putting his role out in the open very flagrantly.

[tris]

FL has hardclaimed a 3p role that would be encouraged to scumside, which hints heavily at a 2 man scumteam anyway

That’s actually possible and would make the most sense, because the only player who has clear scum equity is Tris. However, wouldn’t Tris scumflip make his role more likely to be town? Jester is not like SK though. So as long as Tris flips scum, wouldn’t the game then end based off of what you’re suggesting? And why does jester!FL insist that Hya will gladiate him D4, right after very briefly st him? Yes it appears to be blatantly jestery but I can definitely see clear town motivation in that and he did that right after Hya’s FL’s saving the town comment and that is really the only time he has done anything blatantly jestery. So sure it’s possible but based off of play, very unlikely, so I apologize if I’m wrongly sr you here. FL clearly isn’t buddies with DnD and if his role is real, clearly not with Tris.

Only one kill per night would mean if FL is a 3P, it’s definitely not a killing role, so if your two-man scumteam theory is accurate and Tris flips scum, wouldn’t we still win? Jester is never a scum role and so long as this game literally isn’t bastard, we don’t lose even if he’s actually jester.

~M

Yes, the game will end after Tris dies if I am correct and I think you're all way overthinking it considering what we know right now

Probably right and FL’s reactions to that really don’t make sense as jester. He’s acting too townie to be jester imo. His dead chat also really doesn’t fit with that.

~M

so, why did he claim jester then?

Do jesters usually claim jester and are you now switching your read on him from scum to jester? Because if so, you definitely shouldn’t be pushing him in that case.

And like I said, he’s either town or jester not scum, so no good reason to vote him in either case.

~M

no, what i mean is, if he's town he has no reason to claim jester. Scum does have a reason. if people believe it, they're not going to vote for him.

[Gamma Emerald]

Maybe he just wants to get more mileage out of his role as Town? Plus it’s not a particularly genuine looking Jester claim, though most FL claims don’t look very genuine overall (this is just stating how I perceive it, not a value judgment)

[Venus Mars and Pluto]

Spoiler:

FL has hardclaimed a 3p role that would be encouraged to scumside, which hints heavily at a 2 man scumteam anyway

That’s actually possible and would make the most sense, because the only player who has clear scum equity is Tris. However, wouldn’t Tris scumflip make his role more likely to be town? Jester is not like SK though. So as long as Tris flips scum, wouldn’t the game then end based off of what you’re suggesting? And why does jester!FL insist that Hya will gladiate him D4, right after very briefly st him? Yes it appears to be blatantly jestery but I can definitely see clear town motivation in that and he did that right after Hya’s FL’s saving the town comment and that is really the only time he has done anything blatantly jestery. So sure it’s possible but based off of play, very unlikely, so I apologize if I’m wrongly sr you here. FL clearly isn’t buddies with DnD and if his role is real, clearly not with Tris.

Only one kill per night would mean if FL is a 3P, it’s definitely not a killing role, so if your two-man scumteam theory is accurate and Tris flips scum, wouldn’t we still win? Jester is never a scum role and so long as this game literally isn’t bastard, we don’t lose even if he’s actually jester.

~M

Yes, the game will end after Tris dies if I am correct and I think you're all way overthinking it considering what we know right now

Probably right and FL’s reactions to that really don’t make sense as jester. He’s acting too townie to be jester imo. His dead chat also really doesn’t fit with that.

~M

so, why did he claim jester then?

Do jesters usually claim jester and are you now switching your read on him from scum to jester? Because if so, you definitely shouldn’t be pushing him in that case.

And like I said, he’s either town or jester not scum, so no good reason to vote him in either case.

~M

no, what i mean is, if he's town he has no reason to claim jester. Scum does have a reason. if people believe it, they're not going to vote for him.

And if scum believes it they’re unlikely to kill him and if they don’t, they push him. You were Amy’s #1 scumread. Hya tracked Amy to you. You have interactions with DnD that look partnery. FL has interactions with DnD that look anti-partnery, so according to you, we should fade him why exactly?

FL also didn’t vote us with his PoE scumreading us, for a ludicrous reason. So tell me why you were A) voting a slot that your alleged PoE DnD was scumreading and B) why it was so extremely eathshattering and game relevant why Shiro did not want to answer the completely pointless why he just said “hi” question.

~M

[Venus Mars and Pluto]

Maybe he just wants to get more mileage out of his role as Town? Plus it’s not a particularly genuine looking Jester claim, though most FL claims don’t look very genuine overall (this is just stating how I perceive it, not a value judgment)

I don’t believe that Tris can’t see any reason why town!FL would do that. I think that response is disingenuous. FACT: obvtown FL frequently gets killed early by scum. I’ve seen quite a few of his towngames where he was the N1 or 2 NK.

None of my top towns are pushing FL, in fact quite the opposite. FL’s role is terrifying to scum, I think that much is obvious. Tris being unwilling to consider any possibility other than FL scum - including jester, I think speaks volumes.

~M

[Venus Mars and Pluto]

@Tris, sorry if I came across as rude but I really did and do consider both you and DnD’s persistence with something I (Auro and Shiro) consider so ridiculous. find it hard to respond much differently to that. You also have yet to address the part about you voting a slot that your PoE were scumreading. If player A is in my PoE and they heavily scumread player B, I as town don’t vote player B. That’s why I scumread that post.

~M

[Venus Mars and Pluto]

i have a few problems with jjh. his read on FL especially, where he goes from being suspicious of FL and then saying he's reevaluated and that this is probably town FL, with no explanation besides that he agrees with FL that if FL were scum, jjh would have been nightkilled.

i'm just not seeing the solving he's promised. his only SR is tris and it's based off the idea that Ampharos could never have been the nightkill.

i see Gamma's reasoning for townreading jjh, but what's stopping scum jjh from making that "Pooky might be scum" crier message with the knowledge that Pooky is going down that night?

Yeah it was sudden, so I’m not really seeing the point of it. I quoted that post from Maria specifying that the game isn’t bastard and only a jester role that literally ends the game would be considered bastard. But a jester role even if 3P, is still never a scum role. The only scum 3P role that I’m aware of is SK (or some other kind of killing role) and there is clearly no SK (3P killing role in this game) in the game, so I don’t understand how jjh gets FL possible scum from that. I do think that either 11 towns + 2 scum is ridiculously townsided as are 10 towns + 1 non-bastard jester + 2 scum, so his mech conclusion would seem unlikely, especially with the extent of hardclaimed town power and based off of what jjh said in his crier message N2, it sure looks like an odd night Arcana rolecop to me based on that but he shot down invest. so I have no clue then what it possibly could be other than that.

~M

[Venus Mars and Pluto]

@jjh, why did you select the Hierophant card on night 1 in particular considering it is so close to your claimed flavour, High Priestess?

The Hierophant is the masculine counterpart to the High Priestess.

https://www.biddytarot.com/tarot-card-m ... ierophant/

~M

[BrightEyedFish]

tris
Gamma Emerald
jjh927
FL

So if I am understanding where the room is at right now, these 4 are the top runners for the remaining Scum team? I'm trying to solidify my PoE a little more thoroughly.

[jjh927]

@jjh, why did you select the Hierophant card on night 1 in particular considering it is so close to your claimed flavour, High Priestess?

The Hierophant is the masculine counterpart to the High Priestess.

https://www.biddytarot.com/tarot-card-m ... ierophant/

~M

[jjh927]

You know I mentioned a few more people than just Pooky in my N1 crier message right

[jjh927]

I mostly talked about FL in the N2 crier message to really drive home that there was this 100% rock solid thing through which I could prove his role if I was dead, so there'd be doubt if no such 100% rock solid thing was revealed

[Kaname Date]

Yeah it was sudden, so I’m not really seeing the point of it. I quoted that post from Maria specifying that the game isn’t bastard and only a jester role that literally ends the game would be considered bastard. But a jester role even if 3P, is still never a scum role. The only scum 3P role that I’m aware of is SK (or some other kind of killing role) and there is clearly no SK (3P killing role in this game) in the game, so I don’t understand how jjh gets FL possible scum from that. I do think that either 11 towns + 2 scum is ridiculously townsided as are 10 towns + 1 non-bastard jester + 2 scum, so his mech conclusion would seem unlikely, especially with the extent of hardclaimed town power and based off of what jjh said in his crier message N2, it sure looks like an odd night Arcana rolecop to me based on that but he shot down invest. so I have no clue then what it possibly could be other than that.

~M

i'm going to sound really stupid asking this but is this you agreeing with suspicion of jjh or giving reasons for him to be town? i believe it's the former but i'm having some issues concentrating on the intent of the post.

my theory is jjh's role gets feedback on whether it worked or not, meaning he can verify if a given arcana is in the game by targeting that arcana with his role and seeing if it goes off.

jjh: i was asking about your FL read. what in your reread prompted the conclusion he was probably town after your suspicion?
and what's your opinion on Amy's validity as a nightkill target?

[Kaname Date]

tris
Gamma Emerald
jjh927
FL

So if I am understanding where the room is at right now, these 4 are the top runners for the remaining Scum team? I'm trying to solidify my PoE a little more thoroughly.

is this your impression of how the game as a whole is feeling?
are there certain players whose opinions you trust more, or is this just crowdsourcing.

[jjh927]

Yeah it was sudden, so I’m not really seeing the point of it. I quoted that post from Maria specifying that the game isn’t bastard and only a jester role that literally ends the game would be considered bastard. But a jester role even if 3P, is still never a scum role. The only scum 3P role that I’m aware of is SK (or some other kind of killing role) and there is clearly no SK (3P killing role in this game) in the game, so I don’t understand how jjh gets FL possible scum from that. I do think that either 11 towns + 2 scum is ridiculously townsided as are 10 towns + 1 non-bastard jester + 2 scum, so his mech conclusion would seem unlikely, especially with the extent of hardclaimed town power and based off of what jjh said in his crier message N2, it sure looks like an odd night Arcana rolecop to me based on that but he shot down invest. so I have no clue then what it possibly could be other than that.

~M

i'm going to sound really stupid asking this but is this you agreeing with suspicion of jjh or giving reasons for him to be town? i believe it's the former but i'm having some issues concentrating on the intent of the post.

my theory is jjh's role gets feedback on whether it worked or not, meaning he can verify if a given arcana is in the game by targeting that arcana with his role and seeing if it goes off.

jjh: i was asking about your FL read. what in your reread prompted the conclusion he was probably town after your suspicion?
and what's your opinion on Amy's validity as a nightkill target?

Your theory is correct

Which reread? I've gone back and forth on FL. I think it's gone null-scum-town-scum-town-scum-3p/don't care
Amy was not and never would be a nightkill target. Tris is guilty

[Venus Mars and Pluto]

Yeah it was sudden, so I’m not really seeing the point of it. I quoted that post from Maria specifying that the game isn’t bastard and only a jester role that literally ends the game would be considered bastard. But a jester role even if 3P, is still never a scum role. The only scum 3P role that I’m aware of is SK (or some other kind of killing role) and there is clearly no SK (3P killing role in this game) in the game, so I don’t understand how jjh gets FL possible scum from that. I do think that either 11 towns + 2 scum is ridiculously townsided as are 10 towns + 1 non-bastard jester + 2 scum, so his mech conclusion would seem unlikely, especially with the extent of hardclaimed town power and based off of what jjh said in his crier message N2, it sure looks like an odd night Arcana rolecop to me based on that but he shot down invest. so I have no clue then what it possibly could be other than that.

~M

i'm going to sound really stupid asking this but is this you agreeing with suspicion of jjh or giving reasons for him to be town? i believe it's the former but i'm having some issues concentrating on the intent of the post.

my theory is jjh's role gets feedback on whether it worked or not, meaning he can verify if a given arcana is in the game by targeting that arcana with his role and seeing if it goes off.

jjh: i was asking about your FL read. what in your reread prompted the conclusion he was probably town after your suspicion?
and what's your opinion on Amy's validity as a nightkill target?

I’m saying that I don’t believe in his 2 person scumteam theory with a playerlist of 13, I think that is highly improbable. So, iow, I don’t believe Tris fade ends the game. I know we’re town and I strongly tr you, BEF and Hya. I think FL is likely town if not jester but not scum and Gamma’s role/flavour checks out and I’d say approximately 75% cleared by my TA, so yes that leaves jjh. Let’s put it this way, I’m skeptical of a lot of what he’s saying, plus if Tris is scum - extremely likely - than I don’t understand jjh’s thinking. If Tris flips scum neighbourizer wouldn’t it very likely not only confirm FL’s role plus make it likely he’s town?

Let me put it another way, if FL, Gamma and jjh were selling me swampland, I’d buy it from both FL/Gamma and say no to jjh. If you’ve ever had the sense that someone wasn’t being 100% forthright with you about something, that’s what I’m picking up from his posts. I can’t explain exactly what is but I just don’t buy what he’s selling.

~Mars

[Venus Mars and Pluto]

tris
Gamma Emerald
jjh927
FL

So if I am understanding where the room is at right now, these 4 are the top runners for the remaining Scum team? I'm trying to solidify my PoE a little more thoroughly.

Mine would be:

Tris
jjh






Gamma
FL

A big space because I picking up something kind of off about jjh’s posts - kind of like a used car salesman kind of vibes. Also remember, I did get a negative result on Gamma (even if it’s not a 100% clear) his flavour claim fits my doppelgänger scum theory, which would definitely be strengthened if Tris flips scum lovers. I hard gut townread FL from his first few posts. And I am very suspicious of jjh’s N1 Pooky read. Both FL’s and Gamma’s Pooky read lines up with my own. Pooky being his #1 scumread on N1 isn’t sitting right with me.

~M

[Venus Mars and Pluto]

@jjh, why did you select the Hierophant card on night 1 in particular considering it is so close to your claimed flavour, High Priestess?

The Hierophant is the masculine counterpart to the High Priestess.

https://www.biddytarot.com/tarot-card-m ... ierophant/

~M

https://pm1.narvii.com/6771/3702fb8f4dc ... fv2_hq.jpg

??????

Are you not planning to answer my question?

~M

[Venus Mars and Pluto]

You know I mentioned a few more people than just Pooky in my N1 crier message right

Yes, but you made it a point of calling him scum. You also mentioned FL and NM but did not give a read on them, everyone else you mentioned, you townread. So, the one player you definitely call scum also just coincidentally happens to be the N1 NK.

~M

[Venus Mars and Pluto]

I mostly talked about FL in the N2 crier message to really drive home that there was this 100% rock solid thing through which I could prove his role if I was dead, so there'd be doubt if no such 100% rock solid thing was revealed

Did you really think you’d be the NK over a confirmed gladiator and a traffic analyst?

~M

[Venus Mars and Pluto]

Yeah it was sudden, so I’m not really seeing the point of it. I quoted that post from Maria specifying that the game isn’t bastard and only a jester role that literally ends the game would be considered bastard. But a jester role even if 3P, is still never a scum role. The only scum 3P role that I’m aware of is SK (or some other kind of killing role) and there is clearly no SK (3P killing role in this game) in the game, so I don’t understand how jjh gets FL possible scum from that. I do think that either 11 towns + 2 scum is ridiculously townsided as are 10 towns + 1 non-bastard jester + 2 scum, so his mech conclusion would seem unlikely, especially with the extent of hardclaimed town power and based off of what jjh said in his crier message N2, it sure looks like an odd night Arcana rolecop to me based on that but he shot down invest. so I have no clue then what it possibly could be other than that.

~M

i'm going to sound really stupid asking this but is this you agreeing with suspicion of jjh or giving reasons for him to be town? i believe it's the former but i'm having some issues concentrating on the intent of the post.

my theory is jjh's role gets feedback on whether it worked or not, meaning he can verify if a given arcana is in the game by targeting that arcana with his role and seeing if it goes off.

jjh: i was asking about your FL read. what in your reread prompted the conclusion he was probably town after your suspicion?
and what's your opinion on Amy's validity as a nightkill target?

Your theory is correct

Which reread? I've gone back and forth on FL. I think it's gone null-scum-town-scum-town-scum-3p/don't care

Amy was not and never would be a nightkill target

. Tris is guilty

A) Why don’t you care about FL’s alignment?

and

B)

How can you be so certain of that? Why couldn’t have Amy been the actual target?

and

C) if Amy were the actual NK target, would that make Tris not/less guilty in your eyes?

While I think it highly likely that Amy died as a direct result of her NA on Tris. I can also see it probable that Tris would target the slot that made no bones about gunning for her.

~M

[MariaR]

VC 3.2

Tris (4): BrightEyedFish, Gamma Emerald, jjh927, Flavor Leaf
Flavor Leaf (1): tris
Gamma Emerald (1): Flavor Leaf

Not Voting (3): Hayasaka, Kaname Date, Venus Mars and Pluto

Deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-25 03:37:43)

With 8 players alive, it takes 5 to fade away

[Venus Mars and Pluto]

VC 3.1

Tris (4): BrightEyedFish, Gamma Emerald, jjh927, Flavor Leaf
Flavor Leaf (1): tris
Gamma Emerald (1): Flavor Leaf

Not Voting (3): Hayasaka, Kaname Date, Venus Mars and Pluto

Deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-25 03:37:43)

With 8 players alive, it takes 5 to fade away

Wow, it’s at E -1 already.

Intent to hammer, whenever

Whenever you guys want to end the day, I’m 100% onboard with this.

Does a commute function similarly to a roleblock? If so, I think that BEF should commute jjh.

~M

[Venus Mars and Pluto]

September 15 2020 -

Mini Theme 2158: Cards of Destiny Mafia

Moderators:

MariaR and Dunnstral

Status:

Day 3, Page 111

Replacing:

Hayasaka

Make sure to pm MariaR

~M

[BrightEyedFish]

tris
Gamma Emerald
jjh927
FL

So if I am understanding where the room is at right now, these 4 are the top runners for the remaining Scum team? I'm trying to solidify my PoE a little more thoroughly.

is this your impression of how the game as a whole is feeling?
are there certain players whose opinions you trust more, or is this just crowdsourcing.

Thats pulled from "crowdsourcing" but it pretty much aligns with my thoughts.
A town!tris owuld blow that open but I don't think that will happen. I felt certain that NM would flip scum so that was a blow to my confidence.