Open 791 | Forest Fire | Game Over

[Isis]

Ok what if your aim is reminiscent of a social deduction game where there is barely evidence of towns voting better than random chance

[Farren]

Why do you say that?

[Farren]

sorry, that was meant for Bell.

[Bell]

By unvoting isis, and voting s_s who isn’t voting me.
Plus everyone else’s positions.
I feel it pretty likely.

[Isis]

Since it's almost impossible to get 2 bonus chops but very possible to get 1 bonus chops, the scum's ability to use a consensus list to choose who to prime isn't relevant to the formalized list-then-chop strategy

[Isis]

S_S why are you white knighting me it conflicts with how I'd prefer to feel about your slot
:Frown:

[Something_Smart]

Cough ydrasse cough.

Context?

[Isis]

S_S why'd you change your avatar to azelf instead of ugly stuff

[Morning Tweet]

I am all for ignoring the "try to kill town covered in oil" strat in favour of trusting our illustrious firefighter, though

This game is bullshit how are we circling back to S_S I dont wanna do that

Can we do Isis or Tea? If I can't get either of those IDFK who then

Do it anyway, i’m dying if you don’t.

(;﹏;)

[Farren]

Ok what if your aim is reminiscent of a social deduction game where there is barely evidence of towns voting better than random chance

Still have to establish the size of the bullseyes and the rings. If the bullseye's big enough and the rings are small enough, aim becomes less important.

Still. To avoid stretching the analogy any further, let me re-word your question to something that's more likely to resonate. This actually ties into that last off-site Town game, now that I think of it. At least kinda.

In that game, I was the Jailkeeper. And I was making my picks then based on this type of logic: "If Town, this person has a decent chance of being NK'd. If scum, this person has a decent chance of thinking they're in the position where they can make the kill." Using that logic in a 9er, I missed N1 but stopped a kill N2.

Is that the sort of thing you're going for?

[Bell]

I can get into more detail if you’d like farren.

You and MT have highest town credibility.
You have tea, Isis, but not s_s in the elimination pool.

Because you have high credibility, you’re more likely to swing the elimination pool to vote where you want.
By unvoting isis and voting S_S.

I directly conflict with your opinions and this puts me in a worse position.
S_S is not voting me, which if I want to increase my shot at survival I should court.
While tea leaves is actively scum reading me.

I use this understanding of the game to helpful effect in scum games. I’m mediocre scum (I believe) but i’m Still not bad enough to vote ydrasse out the gate in those conditions.

I don’t think isis will unvote me just for unvoting her when it would be a mistake to do so. Her opinions have not budged on my slot.

[Bell]

Cough ydrasse cough.

Context?

Lots of personal reads and meta reads saying she was town.
She was scum~

[Something_Smart]

How did she get executed then?

[Bell]

Dead line.
And dunstral flipped the board on her as a confirmed fire fighter.

[Bell]

By saying your slot was town btw. Also, yeah, you’re not being subtle with this line of questioning.

[Bell]

It’s what’d I do if I were scum this game.
*shrug*

[Morning Tweet]

Bell, Isis, Ydrasse and myself wanted GL.

GL and Farren wanted Ydrasse.

When Ydrasse placed the X-1 on GL, tea fled and voted for Ydrasse.

Dunn expressed a townread on GL, prompting Isis to sheep him towards Ydrasse.

I was probably the only one interested in defending Ydrasse but after a while I stopped, realizing I had so many townreads that the one most likely to be wrong was probably the untested meta tell

In the end, Farren's vote never left. GL got cold feet and switched to Bell last moment. Isis didn't stick onto Ydrasse I guess. Tea never left after swapping to Ydrasse. I then joined. GL came back on saying he didnt think Ydrasse was scum anymore, and then Bell hammered saying "maybe my initial read was right".

[Morning Tweet]

tea,*

Bell, Isis, Ydrasse and myself wanted GL.

Forgot tea in this line. They wanted GL start of day as a response to GL's push on them, but left later and never came back.

[Farren]

I can get into more detail if you’d like farren.

You and MT have highest town credibility.
You have tea, Isis, but not s_s in the elimination pool.

Because you have high credibility, you’re more likely to swing the elimination pool to vote where you want.
By unvoting isis and voting S_S.

I directly conflict with your opinions and this puts me in a worse position.
S_S is not voting me, which if I want to increase my shot at survival I should court.
While tea leaves is actively scum reading me.

I use this understanding of the game to helpful effect in scum games. I’m mediocre scum (I believe) but i’m Still not bad enough to vote ydrasse out the gate in those conditions.

I don’t think isis will unvote me just for unvoting her when it would be a mistake to do so. Her opinions have not budged on my slot.

This seems a reasonable analysis. Other than right now, my preferred elimination pool is just you / Isis. But that's a nitpick; I would pick you over S_S if I had to be sole arbiter between the two of you. Don't think it changes the analysis.

Which I'm guessing is your point - by directly going after S_S, you're increasing the likelihood that both he and I end up switching to you. Rather than, say, sticking with Isis in my case.

[Isis]

Ok what if your aim is reminiscent of a social deduction game where there is barely evidence of towns voting better than random chance

Still have to establish the size of the bullseyes and the rings. If the bullseye's big enough and the rings are small enough, aim becomes less important.

Still. To avoid stretching the analogy any further, let me re-word your question to something that's more likely to resonate. This actually ties into that last off-site Town game, now that I think of it. At least kinda.

In that game, I was the Jailkeeper. And I was making my picks then based on this type of logic: "If Town, this person has a decent chance of being NK'd. If scum, this person has a decent chance of thinking they're in the position where they can make the kill." Using that logic in a 9er, I missed N1 but stopped a kill N2.

Is that the sort of thing you're going for?

yes

[Bell]

Yeah, It was in regards to MT that tea leaves was in the pool.
I didn’t strictly know where you opinion was in regards to him.

For the most part yeah. I just would stick it to isis in this case if I wanted to live.

[Isis]

Farren why don't you townread me
I've felt so unguarded at various points this game

[Bell]

Farren why don't you townread me
I've felt so unguarded at various points this game

Isis, why don’t you town read me.

I’m fluffy.

[Isis]

Who is in control of this game? I feel like this feels like a conspiracy game sometimes. Tea leaves' conspiracy vote actually resonates and I actually kind of townread it X_X

[Isis]

The emoji was a typo