Mini Normal 2160 | FIA Group B | Endgame

[innocentvillager]

uh, no offense iv

none taken. I’m not sure what happened but I feel like my play is getting worse. Either that or I’m sinking slowly into the despair of realizing that I have historically been too confident with reads and that opinions are usually no better than a coin flip. I’ve probably been over adjusting and just been way too paranoid lately and should be more confident but I kinda tried that somewhat this game and look where we are

at the same time I don’t feel like that bad? I think scum genuinely are just playing really well, and I feel like the consensus has generally been TRing most of the players as well

@worsty about the “scum don’t give a shit about this phase” tell. You brought it up originally so I was kind of piggybacking off of that. I guess for more brief context, in the game I’m talking about the setup was such that town loses if parity is reached or a timer ends. When scum got super close to winning and the timer was hilariously low they stopped giving a shit because they had deepwolfed themselves early, but the consequence of this was suddenly it became somewhat obvious who they were because town was freaking out.

So they are very different situations and I was just saying maybeeee there’s some relevance given that you independently thought of it. But now thinking about it I don’t think anyone is safe from elimination, there’s no analogous “death timer” and if scum is on the chopping block that could be a huge problem to go 1v4 tomorrow, which makes the tell a little less useful imo, since there is still urgency for scum to avoid their elim at all costs

[innocentvillager]

i'm not sure scum!IV is incentivised to double down on his shitty lack of reads.

this is probably true but now that you’ve said that I’m definitely going to try this in my next scumgame with a diff plist, but yeah having too many townreads and no scumreads is probably town!indicative at least historically for me

[innocentvillager]

If I were scum in this gamestate, as any player’s current standing I would be trying to

-towntell, avoid getting eliminated today and just survive to F5
-push wagons away from partner, but subtlely

[innocentvillager]

He's a good player, I would hope better than he was a few years back at this point. I just don't see his reads being this unsure in a town game. I don't think he flip flops like this as town. Call it a hunch.

The flip flop is scum slot.

now this is interesting and I see where the point of view comes from and initially I do find it weird for like, my slot in particular? But it’s hard to genuinely scumread it because scum!worsty is probably more likely to just commit to a stance on me, whereas I can see town!worsty more likely to be paranoid of me with how many towny-looking slots there are in the game, again maybe the conclusion I Am left with here is that worsty isn’t as good at reading me as I initially thought. I don’t think the flip flops on me and you, slots that he feels historically he is good at reading, is a good look at all for worsty and definitely not what scum!him directly tries to accomplish with this stance? Which actually makes me lean town on the flipping, there is some chance that this is opportunistic or noisy posturing to make us go “oh look, he’s flip flopping again, whatever”

which makes me go back to, okay, what does scum do in this gamestate, maybe fmpov this is what I would/wouldn’t do as scum but maybe other slots would take approach why? maybe I’ll go through each player assuming they are scum and estimating potential distributions of their player-specific win vectors and/or see if their current style could adhere to that. But idk how feasible or accurate that will be

[lilith2013]

go against the grain?

what in iv's posting has gone against the grain?

[Billy Pilgrim]

Lillith, do you have an issue with my proposal on who to elim?

[lilith2013]

clearly, yes.

[Billy Pilgrim]

clearly, yes.

So who do you think the team is?

[the worst]

go against the grain?

what in iv's posting has gone against the grain?

I don't feel like he feels compelled to follow consensus reads. I feel like he's doubling down > going with the flow. please tell me if you literally don't see it at all because I personally think within IV's personality it's been fairly obvious.

[lilith2013]

so I'm back to {duck, una, iv, billy} and mostly una is out of the poe so it's kind of down to {duck, iv, billy}

[lilith2013]

like.... are you reading any of my posts????

[the worst]

it's mwnn + billy or nm

[the worst]

flip mwnn if I'm wrong I'm probably the game losing mis-elim and it's like fucking Lilith/una or something nasty, but if I'm *right* I'm a god and we can policy elim NM and work it out from there.

[osuka]

vote count

day 4, vc 1

ManWithNoName

(1) - Billy Pilgrim

the worst

(0)

innocentvillager

(0)

Billy Pilgrim

(0)

UnaBombaH

(0)

Not_Mafia

(0)

lilith2013

(0)

Not voting

(6) - the worst, innocentvillager, ManWithNoName, UnaBombaH, Not_Mafia, lilith2013

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to execute.


The day will end in (expired on 2020-10-07 22:04:00).

[Not_Mafia]

VOTE: Pilgrim

[ManWithNoName]

it's mwnn + billy or nm

This is about as bad of a read as I've ever seen you do.

You keep town casing slots and then saying "No, I'm wrong! This is my scum team"

I really don't like the lack of consistency you've shown or your complete lack of conviction on anything.

It feels like you're just keeping options open. VOTE: worst

[the worst]

my dude literally nothing you've said this phase has any conviction
I am bleeding conviction and my conviction is: I'm confused and I don't know who it is!!!!

[ManWithNoName]

my dude literally nothing you've said this phase has any conviction
I am bleeding conviction and my conviction is: I'm confused and I don't know who it is!!!!

No u

[the worst]

no!!!!!! U!!!!!!!!!!!!

[innocentvillager]

scum!worsty is probably more likely to just commit to a stance on me, whereas I can see town!worsty more likely to be paranoid of me with how many towny-looking slots there are in the game, again maybe the conclusion I Am left with here is that worsty isn’t as good at reading me as I initially thought. I don’t think the flip flops on me and you, slots that he feels historically he is good at reading, is a good look at all for worsty and definitely not what scum!him directly tries to accomplish with this stance?

@four, how do you feel about this argument. Me and you are sort of interchangeable

do you think scum!worsty is fine tanking his image in the thread by flip flopping around on slots like us?

[lilith2013]

what about duck has been towny to you?

[ManWithNoName]

It's real weird that you guys are defending each other, at the very least.

This dynamic really makes me uneasy.

I don't get the genuine feeling that worst is actually unsure of what he's saying at any one time, though, the wishy washy nature comes later, when he seems to be like "Well, that isn't sticking so well"

[ManWithNoName]

Even his Una read where he was so sure that was scum Day 3, seems gone. No real explanation from my recollection.

[innocentvillager]

It's real weird that you guys are defending each other, at the very least.

This dynamic really makes me uneasy.

okay, so what does this unease point to? me/worsty scumteam defending each other?

[innocentvillager]

I don't get the genuine feeling that worst is actually unsure of what he's saying at any one time, though, the wishy washy nature comes later, when he seems to be like "Well, that isn't sticking so well"

So you think the waffle pushing is opportunistic to see what sticks? are there specific pushes that come to mind