Mini Normal 2160 | FIA Group B | Endgame

[UnaBombaH]

Yea, I'm gone for tonight.
It seems Billy is still like 100 posts behind as well, so..

[the worst]

I'm gonna assume I don't need to point out the flaw in that one

Well go ahead then.

ok so like it's bullshit for exactly four reasons (is it actually four? I don't know but let's count and find out)

1) d4 is literally the only phase in this entire game where I felt like I was actually under threat of being eliminated. you've been stating that I'm scum consistently but not pushing me and in that phase people were actually having a dialogue about whether or not I was aligned with the mafia. so if you actually wanted me eliminated prior to endgame you have had so so many opportunities to actually try and develop your read and engage with your townreads about eliminating the big bad scum duck but frankly I'd argue d4 was the best one.

2) if you were considering your NK equity for even a second, why the fuck would you then lolhammer your townread, putting you + your scumteam solve of {tw, IV} into f5? like sorry not sorry if I was scum and I didn't have a roleblocker I'd just shoot Lilith n4 and manipulate NM for the win. He's a shitload easier to work around as scum than Lilith is. On what planet do you ever think scum will shoot you after lolhammering your townread the day before Xylo? Increasing NK equity is literally never a reason for lolhammering someone you are convinced will flip town.

3) we dedicated that phase to sorting mwnn in good faith. You continuously acknowledged that mwnn could be town, but never actually joined in the conversation about sorting his alignment. Then with time still on the clock, when you could have been putting your energy into any of the things you promised or pretended to want (sorting mwnn, sorting IV, eliminating me???) you just lolhammer mwnn. you like transparently handled d4 in bad faith and pretending that you lolhammered him so that you could save the day with night actions is bullshit.

4) if this was your grand masterplan and you figured if you were still alive you'd be able to go into f5 against the big bad duck and Lilith & billy would know for sure that one of us was scum: where is your explanation? it's taken you until now when you're pressed by someone who you're desperately trying to swing the vote of for you to actually out this. if it was a real sincere thought and you were taking the risk because you needed to come into xylo as town and take on the duck, where was any of your explanation before this point?

5) all this does is pivot dayplay back into attempted night action wifom. again.

what do you know, there were 5.

[the worst]

BTW, I looked back at eod yesterday, and he seemed a bit more waffley than youre suggesting here.

Look at his holistic reads for day four - he talks about sorting IV and mwnn in good faith. Then he never talks about either slot, but waffles for a while about how he thinks there's a deeper wolf or maybe his solve is wrong or something. Then he says that if mwnn is scum, NM is necessarily scum. But then he talks about mwnn being town. And then he never revisits what the correction in his solve is, if it's wrong. He waffles, yeah - but the actual reads he states on actual players in the game? Always tw/iv.

Like I get what you mean, he definitely waffles at eod4, but I frankly absolutely cannot believe that he was hand on heart confident on a tw/IV team since d4, then failed to reevaluate either mwnn or IV (which would have basically won the game if we were looking at town!una vs. scum!duck/iv) and decides to lolhammer mwnn instead. he waffles but it's not towny or solvey or actual thoughty waffling. It's just filling posts.

And most of either D2 or D3 he didn't have you in the solve. It seemed like a quick pivot then he heged a bit.

I reckon from my lengthy read it was d3 when he doubled down on the IV/tw team; I'm a bit fuzzy on timeline when working off the top of my head.

Honestly, the thing that jumped out at me when I went back through my iso was his like nonexistent progression on me. Twice. I started as town. Then inexplicably I went to one of his top two scumreads. Then later I was town on a "reread" and he expressly couldn't point to a moment where I town-told just that he didn't see an agenda from my posts.

If hes scum here, that's probably what I'm seeing more than any of this back and forth between the two of you.

you gotta get to my walls dude you're so close you'll love them
for real though I'm acutely aware of how shitty his read on you has been yeah

[innocentvillager]

sorry I’ll get to this, skimmed a bit in a weird order

looks like lilith weighed in and worsty/Lilith are team kill-una-on-his-birthday

[Billy Pilgrim]

are yall gonna be mad if i just vote una without waiting for the weekend to effort

Honestly Duck convinced me. So I think its gonna be hard for me to go off him. I wouldn't mind having duck around to help sort between you and IV though.

[lilith2013]

srsly do you just ignore content about me or something

[Billy Pilgrim]

Oh and I think I came to this conclusion a while ago, but I really wanted to do this phase justice so I’ve kind of been holding back. I think duck’s last page of posting has been really solid though and shows una in the same light I’ve been thinking about him (that is, making up the read and then trying to force the reasons to fit the read rather than coming to the read organically)

I agree that duck's last page is SUPER towny, and it was a damn effective scum case. Like if duck is scum here, im fine losing to him, because holy shit effort. Im inclined toward mechanics, which is weird for me because my first experience in social deduction games was Blood on the Clocktower where you don't even get mod confirmed alignments on deaths. So im not gonna lie the confirmation of Una's role on N1 really sort of locked him town tonight. And I still think the night kill of N_M is weird when he said he kept on him, but I guess that works. Because it gives his partner a chance to bus, and Duck sold me on how he kept pushing him but not actually pushing him.

And from my own slot, I think his D1 progression on me was more driven by how other people were approaching my slot then anything about how he was reading.

I hope this is right.

[Billy Pilgrim]

srsly do you just ignore content about me or something

No, duck has you locked town. Im not ignoring it, but he also hasn't done like a 25 post town case on you that literally blew open my read either.

[UnaBombaH]

sorry I’ll get to this, skimmed a bit in a weird order

looks like lilith weighed in and worsty/Lilith are team kill-una-on-his-birthday

This is a stupid take. My birthday has nothing to do with the game, or anyone withholding any decisions.
Just hammer me away so that I can be at peace and take some time off of Mafia again. These towns are just killing me..

[UnaBombaH]

srsly do you just ignore content about me or something

No, duck has you locked town. Im not ignoring it, but he also hasn't done like a 25 post town case on you that literally blew open my read either.

You know, Ducky has no intention to make a similar towncase about Lilith for you.. Wanna guess why?

[UnaBombaH]

Guys, I just told Captain Morgan about this game, and he really thinks that Ducky-fellow is the worst.
But it was actually DUFFY - I told him that the worst isn't a cute little duckling anymore anyway. Like at all.

[UnaBombaH]

Like how is it that scum can come up with a scumcase on town that sounds better than the truth?
Thats not a setup-balance thing.
Although some seem to think Normal games suck nowadays with the excess of wonky roles.

[UnaBombaH]

If IV isn't scum here, I'll change my avatar into a pile of ducks.

[Billy Pilgrim]

BTW, I looked back at eod yesterday, and he seemed a bit more waffley than youre suggesting here.

Look at his holistic reads for day four - he talks about sorting IV and mwnn in good faith. Then he never talks about either slot, but waffles for a while about how he thinks there's a deeper wolf or maybe his solve is wrong or something. Then he says that if mwnn is scum, NM is necessarily scum. But then he talks about mwnn being town. And then he never revisits what the correction in his solve is, if it's wrong. He waffles, yeah - but the actual reads he states on actual players in the game? Always tw/iv.

Like I get what you mean, he definitely waffles at eod4, but I frankly absolutely cannot believe that he was hand on heart confident on a tw/IV team since d4, then failed to reevaluate either mwnn or IV (which would have basically won the game if we were looking at town!una vs. scum!duck/iv) and decides to lolhammer mwnn instead. he waffles but it's not towny or solvey or actual thoughty waffling. It's just filling posts.

And most of either D2 or D3 he didn't have you in the solve. It seemed like a quick pivot then he heged a bit.

I reckon from my lengthy read it was d3 when he doubled down on the IV/tw team; I'm a bit fuzzy on timeline when working off the top of my head.

Honestly, the thing that jumped out at me when I went back through my iso was his like nonexistent progression on me. Twice. I started as town. Then inexplicably I went to one of his top two scumreads. Then later I was town on a "reread" and he expressly couldn't point to a moment where I town-told just that he didn't see an agenda from my posts.

If hes scum here, that's probably what I'm seeing more than any of this back and forth between the two of you.

you gotta get to my walls dude you're so close you'll love them
for real though I'm acutely aware of how shitty his read on you has been yeah

Yeah, your walls were good. Blew up my read on him. And I see what you mean with respect to his waffling at EoD4. So is it a Una/IV team? And Una's just been creating distance most of the past two days?

[innocentvillager]

i haven't read through all of worstys walls but yeah down to elim una, not much more to be said, im more worried about f3 at this point

[the worst]

i yearn for the sweet release of death.

[the worst]

if it's any help, i'd probably lolvote IV and hope for the best, personally

ok honestly though:
una's read on billy had this weird trajectory of like kinda null into kinda scummy and he they had some really wild interactions on d1 where billy actually felt kinda perplexed that una was just shoving him into the corner. then una just townread him based on his spew when being run to l-1 and didn't talk about him for like 19823017203 phases. i kinda think billy's really silly push on you on d4 was so at odds with the gamestate / direction that scum were pushing the game that it's more likely to be town derp than scum-with-una.

una talks around IV in a similar way to how he talked around zombie on d1; he largely tries not to commit to a read on him. when he does it's kinda loosely town. they have kinda two dimensional interactions through the game but nothing particularly interesting. IV and zombapoc both like, fairly blatantly buddied me in their own wonderful cute special ways and given una has been running for a duck vs. umbreon endgame for like a long ass time, i think he has a lot to gain from a partner who buddies me who he can establish as scum with me. iv has also been like, generally fairly unconcerned about being positioned as "probably scum but we can deal with HIM LATER" for like the entire game and has just stayed cute.

basically my plan of attack if i get to f3 is to psyche myself up to reread the parts of d1 where una & billy interact, decide if i feel like billy is being genuine, and if so to murder iv

@billy this is about where I'm at with the partner.
ottomh I'd call his shitty progression on you, and your tendency to call him out for it, less partner indicative than the way he's distanced from iv and the fact IV doesn't seem particularly stressed by being in a solve which is kinda just never pushed. I think IV makes a lot more sense as buddying scum than you do as like..whatever you'd be doing as scum here (I'd guess like, trying to intentionally defiantly push a solve other than Una's so that it looks like you're unaware of the master plan?... which doesn't really feel like either of yours or Una's style).

There's a bit more legwork I'd do before I laid down my vote in f3 but there's my two cents worth

[the worst]

I hope I don't need to explain why I've townbinned Lilith but I'm down to give the summary

[Billy Pilgrim]

I hope I don't need to explain why I've townbinned Lilith but I'm down to give the summary

I'd like it.

[lilith2013]

billy can you explain what you agree with in duck’s scumcase of una?

[lilith2013]

or alternatively, what’s the strongest part of it for you that makes you feel like una is scum

[lilith2013]

i haven't read through all of worstys walls but yeah down to elim una, not much more to be said, im more worried about f3 at this point

this is kind of garbage reaction sorry

[lilith2013]

actually doesn’t it imply that he knows the game isn’t over with una’s death, if he’s more worried about f3 than, you know, the LYLO that we’re currently in????

[the worst]

i haven't read through all of worstys walls but yeah down to elim una, not much more to be said, im more worried about f3 at this point

this is kind of garbage reaction sorry

I was just walking down my apartment block's carpark in the rain thinking "oh IV didn't react to any of my push on una except for saying he was down to vote for una and then tried to set up for f3" lol

I was gonna wait for his rxn to me offering to towncase you but I don't really think I need to atp

[Billy Pilgrim]

or alternatively, what’s the strongest part of it for you that makes you feel like una is scum

I think the strongest piece of it was the stuff around EoD4 whichever day was his hammer on MWNN. Because he did keep coming back to this persistent solve that he just wouldn't push. Luke he seemed committed to it since he kept coming back to it, but he didn't push it. And him hammering outside of that doesn't fit.

So if youre looking for the strongest part it was that, but honestly holistically. It was strong. The pieces about his posturing on Zombie were also pretty meaningful. The stuff about his role is still sort of an outlier to me, but I think breaking g it up between role indicative vs. Alignment indicative makes me think he's the scum there. And its just like impossible to townread Una in the exchange between the two of them as opposed to ducky there.