Alright so I am still up and I feel the need to respond to a few messages:
Smoke and Mirrors wrote:Viz, everything in your plan I already laid out like a few days ago as soon as the game started.
it was rejected by most of the town already :3.
~Smoke
In post 531, JohnnyFarrar wrote:So this plan -
D1 No day eliminations
N1 all sentries steal
All doctors do nothing
All gardeners block? (There'd be a bunch of false positives on investigate Because of the sentries)
Townie dies likely
D2 one confirmed sentry
Still no eliminations?
N2 doctors heal caretaker
Sentries do nothing
All gardeners investigate
Another townie likely dies
D3 still one confirmed sentry
Gardeners claim if they have a result
Still no eliminations if not?
N3 sentries protect
doctors nothing
Gardeners continue to investigate
D4 one confirm sentry
Gardeners claim some more
Still no Elim if not? -
This is broken quickly by fake claims and dead sentries
So here's the thing: Gardeners claiming on Day 2 is stupid because the steals they might have seen can be both sentries and mafia.
Yes, a townie will die, but in return we have a confTown. That is a positive exchange fmpov.
During Day phases we can base our execution votes based on the findings from mostly Gardeners.
Night 2 another townie dies yeah ok that's probably an issue. I knew I was getting overly excited
Having a confTown so early on and keeping them alive for longer than one day is valuable in exchange for the loss of one or more town members. If we do not vote to execute someone, risking executing another town member, we can go on for long enough for Gardeners to eventually find something.
During all this time the chances of mafia successfully stealing the beetle are so small in comparison to how big it usually is without a plan that it is worth in my eyes to execute this plan, even despite the few leaks you mentioned which in reality, can't be prevented otherwise.
- How likely is it that mafia does NOT get a kill on nights 1 or 2?
- How likely is it that we execute a townie? Likely, isn't it?
Fake claims are countered by the fact that it'll be found out that there's a fake claim going on. Also:
The odds of there being less than two Sentry's (so 1 or 0) is about 26%. If we have two or more sentries, the odds of mafia successfully stealing the bug on Day 1 is 1 in 42. (they kill one sentry and roleblock the other, while attempting to steal the beetle). On Day 2 and 3 this chance does not become that much bigger to the point that it is a serious risk.
If there is only 1 Sentry or none, then the odds of mafia successfully stealing increase, but because the chances of this being the case are pretty small it's better than going into Night 1 without a plan and letting everyone do whatever suits their style.
Finally, yes Smoke and Mirrors, if you really want to you can discuss reads, but we still have more than 5 days left, so don't hurry. And I've taken a quick look at what you've said at the start of this game, and it was less elaborate than my plan.
I will look further into the first few pages to see what's been said between you and the others regarding the plan. This is worth looking into for a.o.t. stuff you've said since I replaced in.