Death Curse

[Noraa]

I do get heavy town pings here and I'm pretty certain this slot is town.
gives me ~Mush vibes~ which is bomb

[Noraa]

PAGE TOPPITY

[Tayl0r Swift]

You've been multitabling since July shelly.

i think im the champion multitabler atm

[Lady Lambdadelta]

We are killing Noraa with our vote today and here is why.

All these plans where we "kill noraa with the third curse so Noraa can't curse someone" are fuckign cowardly. It ruins the BEST and MOST USEFUL TOOL town has.

The 2nd curse confirmed town play.

If we assign a player to die from 3rd curse, not only is it often not gonna happen, but we lose the ability for a confirmed townie to put pressure on people.

Noraa remains the vote today, and all these people derailing it are really suspicious.

[Theta Alpine]

The 2nd curse confirmed town play.

see the thing is
this is exactly why i want to lynch adorable

[Theta Alpine]

in addition to the fact that adorable is prob scum that is

[Theta Alpine]

also wait what

we absolutely want scum to be in the third slot
preferablly with scum also in the first slot
that is how town wins

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Dude, you know I'm gonna die today right?

If we get the vote wrong, and then hand scum the 2nd curse, I die without recourse.

It's not TERRIBLE because yes we killed a scum, but it's the 2nd worst outcome for today minus a miss on all 3.

I want to do Noraa because Noraa has CLAIMED SHE WILL HAND TO ADORABLE.

so if noraa is scum, she will need to do that or if she deviates it will be obvious she is scum, which is a huge advantage to us.

[Tayl0r Swift]

Please don’t scum claim unless you’re me, because I can’t wifom myself.

sounds like you need to step up your wifom game

[Lady Lambdadelta]

also wait what

we absolutely want scum to be in the third slot
preferablly with scum also in the first slot
that is how town wins

That is the best scenario and also a fucking pipe dream.

And also not my fucking point?

My point was that CONTROLLING AND CONFIRMING who the 2nd curse kills is BAD FOR TOWN because it removes a fucking BOATLOAD of information.

We control the first curse and try to leash that person onto scummy people for the 2nd curse. So if they break the code, we know they're scum.

then the 2nd person becomes confirmed town and leads the town for the third curse, not the other way around

[Theta Alpine]

Dude, you know I'm gonna die today right?

If we get the vote wrong, and then hand scum the 2nd curse, I die without recourse.

It's not TERRIBLE because yes we killed a scum, but it's the 2nd worst outcome for today minus a miss on all 3.

I want to do Noraa because Noraa has CLAIMED SHE WILL HAND TO ADORABLE.

so if noraa is scum, she will need to do that or if she deviates it will be obvious she is scum, which is a huge advantage to us.

so two things

adorable has more or less stated that they will hand it to noraa so the same argument applies there
and pushing adorable will get more information then continuing to push noraa

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Dude, you know I'm gonna die today right?

If we get the vote wrong, and then hand scum the 2nd curse, I die without recourse.

It's not TERRIBLE because yes we killed a scum, but it's the 2nd worst outcome for today minus a miss on all 3.

I want to do Noraa because Noraa has CLAIMED SHE WILL HAND TO ADORABLE.

so if noraa is scum, she will need to do that or if she deviates it will be obvious she is scum, which is a huge advantage to us.

so two things

adorable has more or less stated that they will hand it to noraa so the same argument applies there
and pushing adorable will get more information then continuing to push noraa

I say this with no offense intended but

Adorable is a weak player who doesn't defend themselves well.

I consider the odds Adorable is town a lot higher than the odds Noraa is.

And that means a VERY LIKELY OUTCOME today is

Adorable(T)->Noraa(S)->LLD(T)

and that is REALLY BAD. Like if Noraa is town I'm willing to eat my hat and if she picks a scum who picks me to die, wonderful, it will tell us we were wrong about our assumptions.

Because at least then I controlled my destiny.

But the outcome you are pushing is most likely to have me die in third curse slot, which is my worst possible outcome for today, TBQH.

So no we're not doing your plan when I'm a dead woman walking. We're doing mine.

[MURDERCAT]

I want to do Noraa because Noraa has CLAIMED SHE WILL HAND TO ADORABLE.

Yeah I like this

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Not to mention that NORAA ANS ADORABLE ARE PROBABLY NOT SCUM TOGETHER from how Noraa flailed onto them as a counter wagon so

[Lady Lambdadelta]

If Noraa and Adorable are both town, BTW, I trust Adorable's ability to work with me and find someone good to kill using their confirmed town status a lot more than I trust Noraa's ego to be willing to work with me.

So uh.... yeah.

It's the best option to vote Noraa here.

[Tayl0r Swift]

owen what are your reads atm?

[Tayl0r Swift]

and yeah you always vote the most likely scumperson. you kill scum when you can. you dont kill scum when you want to.

[Isis]

Why is the second scrollholder "confirmed town"?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Cause the outcomes are like this:

If Noraa is scum she either:

Hands to me, which confirms she is scum, and gives me confirmed town status for a while to interrogate, make a good last will and then take my shot for the fabled 2 scum cycle.

Doesn't hand to me and hands to a less obvious townie in an attempt to mask she is scum, in which case we ignore her alignment and make no associatives, but guide that townie to the best of our ability anyway.

If Noraa is town:

she will leave her last will and hand likely in a similar way to option 2 above, leaving us with one of 2 outcomes

she hits a scum member which is great because if Noraa was town we were in bad odds to hit scum this cycle to begin with, and scum kills me which I accept as the price for being wrong about Noraa.

Or

She hits town, and we use that townie to try and hit scum, which is easier than working with Noraa.

All these options are literally our best case and better than giving Noraa 2nd option or trying to control her with 3rd option.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Why is the second scrollholder "confirmed town"?

Let me grab the quote for you.

[Theta Alpine]

also wait what

we absolutely want scum to be in the third slot
preferablly with scum also in the first slot
that is how town wins

That is the best scenario and also a fucking pipe dream.

And also not my fucking point?

My point was that CONTROLLING AND CONFIRMING who the 2nd curse kills is BAD FOR TOWN because it removes a fucking BOATLOAD of information.

We control the first curse and try to leash that person onto scummy people for the 2nd curse. So if they break the code, we know they're scum.

then the 2nd person becomes confirmed town and leads the town for the third curse, not the other way around

oh yeah i think i see what you mean

if adorable does not pass the scroll to noraa
noraa is still null
having said that who adorable passes the scroll to as scum gives us insight into the alignment of noraa
or i guess who scum is worried about more likely
still i think adorable is the better play here for the lynch

p-edit
noraa could have been coached to do that
especially with the order of events that happened
also you are tunneled on noraa and i really want to force you to do something different

and we can still push adorable now and then go back to noraa later depending on how things work out
but we absolutely need to push someone else because not having other major wagons is denying town a lot of potential information

p-edit
there is a problem with that strategy in this setup which i will not elaborate on
because i do not want to tell mafia how they win this game

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I am curious what would qualify as a good wagon to Tayl0r rn. Or if there are no good wagons, then what is stopping Noraa from being the best one out of currently available options?

Also, a question to the people discussing the mech: Did you decide it was worthwhile enough to give the final scroll pass to the scummiest player? Or should we not bother?

I understand that, in a way, we block a night kill if the final bounce is to scum. But that will require us dictating to the second chosen player who to pick, which is unfortunate. We also might learn something from who scum passes the scroll to anyway. That is why I am not sure what our best option is.

There are the following outcomes

Vote to Kill Town-> Pass to Town->Pass to Town=0
Vote to kill Town->Pass to Town->Pass to Scum=1
Vote to kill Town->Pass to Scum->Pass to Town=1
Vote to kill Scum->Pass to Town->Pass to Town=1
Vote to kill Scum->Pass to Town->Pass to Scum=2

Those are all the outcomes. You need to think of it like this. Because scum will always pass to town, if we vote to kill a townie, we basically get 2 vig shots to make it up and avoid the 0 result. A result of 1 is a "fine result" and what we want to aim for. If we score 1 on all our rounds, we will win the game.

So essentially, if we get a townie, we should consider our two shots as independent because remember scum can lie about if they were scum when they get cursed.

So, in essence, the first pass from the person we vote to the next player we should always assume they are a townie. 4/5 times they are, and in the only time they are NOT, we're always in the "Score 1" world which is just fine by us.

So basically, we can work and do plans and stuff with the middle person as if they were a confirmed townie. The voted for person... less so. If they're scum, they'll pass to a townie and there's just no work we can do with them.

If they're a townie, they will just do as they want given we voted them out.

So in my mind, you just want to let the person we voted do what they want, and then let the middle person be treated as a confirmed townie, ask questions and work together to help them make a good informed choice but not control them.

And if we focus on it like that, we up our odds to hit the 2 score world, and lower our odds to hit the 0 score world.

I am curious what would qualify as a good wagon to Tayl0r rn. Or if there are no good wagons, then what is stopping Noraa from being the best one out of currently available options?

Also, a question to the people discussing the mech: Did you decide it was worthwhile enough to give the final scroll pass to the scummiest player? Or should we not bother?

I understand that, in a way, we block a night kill if the final bounce is to scum. But that will require us dictating to the second chosen player who to pick, which is unfortunate. We also might learn something from who scum passes the scroll to anyway. That is why I am not sure what our best option is.

There are the following outcomes

Vote to Kill Town-> Pass to Town->Pass to Town=0
Vote to kill Town->Pass to Town->Pass to Scum=1
Vote to kill Town->Pass to Scum->Pass to Town=1
Vote to kill Scum->Pass to Town->Pass to Town=1
Vote to kill Scum->Pass to Town->Pass to Scum=2

Those are all the outcomes. You need to think of it like this. Because scum will always pass to town, if we vote to kill a townie, we basically get 2 vig shots to make it up and avoid the 0 result. A result of 1 is a "fine result" and what we want to aim for. If we score 1 on all our rounds, we will win the game.

So essentially, if we get a townie, we should consider our two shots as independent because remember scum can lie about if they were scum when they get cursed.

So, in essence, the first pass from the person we vote to the next player we should always assume they are a townie. 4/5 times they are, and in the only time they are NOT, we're always in the "Score 1" world which is just fine by us.

So basically, we can work and do plans and stuff with the middle person as if they were a confirmed townie. The voted for person... less so. If they're scum, they'll pass to a townie and there's just no work we can do with them.

If they're a townie, they will just do as they want given we voted them out.

So in my mind, you just want to let the person we voted do what they want, and then let the middle person be treated as a confirmed townie, ask questions and work together to help them make a good informed choice but not control them.

And if we focus on it like that, we up our odds to hit the 2 score world, and lower our odds to hit the 0 score world.

Everyone needs to read and agree to this. This is a breakthrough. In ALL RELEVANT WORLDS the 2nd cursed player who has their final choice is AN EFFECTIVE CONFIRMED TOWNIE.

Because if they're scum there's just no point. They can troll and fuck around but with no power roles, they're just wasting time.

So literally the 2nd person is always confirmed town and we should treat them as such and work with them to get the best outcomes.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

This is the reasoning why.

Because in 4/5 worlds, the 2nd person chosen is a townie, and in the 5th world they're scum but they don't need to hide it remotely cause they gain nothing from it once they flip. They just take our best player.

So it's always worth treating them as confirmed town.

[Noraa]

Spoiler:

meh if I can't prove it with my nonexistent town games, u can't prove anything with them either

Defensive much!? I was definitely trying to give you benefit of doubt, and leaning on the town side, your reaction is immediately paranoid and assuming I'm onto you? Guilty conscience is obvious.

nah u deserve the scumpoints. u seem pretty scummy

Maybe if you care so much about being meta-proof, you could go and look at...I dunno, one of my many dozens of completed games, and tell me whether you think I'm scummy, or the towniest town you've ever seen.

VOTE: noraa

this is particularly weak, and i'm not overwhelmingly impressed with the jokey, overly flamboyant openings from Menalque and Datisi. Odds of both being scum, slim. Odds of 1 being scum, pretty good based on past experience. VOTE: Datisi

mind telling me what experience?

if this isn't a rvs vote, u will have to explain it

How are you finding the pressure?

VOTE: Noraa

plus I dont have to have finished town games to prove I'm town. This logic is really flawed

tell me how you will prove it otherwise though?

I dont think you need finished town games to prove ur town. Meta is trash and unreliable a lot of the time anyways so I dont see what's wrong with not having any. It just means I'm newer than everyone else but so? u trying to tell me that all new players have no way to prove they aren't scum and have to be scum every round until they have a finished town game? Im being a lil defensive ig? But like ur logic just isn't making any sense to me...

VOTE: noraa

this is particularly weak, and i'm not overwhelmingly impressed with the jokey, overly flamboyant openings from Menalque and Datisi. Odds of both being scum, slim. Odds of 1 being scum, pretty good based on past experience. VOTE: Datisi

mind telling me what experience?

if this isn't a rvs vote, u will have to explain it

do i have to?

it would look really scummy on ur part to not explain so yeah I would say you should explain.

So far BM's the scummiest person here. I see his SR on me as trying to set up some easy limbait since I hear I tend to give off that first impression. Ofc we are still technically kinda in rvs so this is a fairly weak read but ye I will be putting this here for future reference of what I was thinking 3 pages into the game. First impressions can often help town find the scums so I'm not too sure if I found one but we'll see

it would look really scummy on ur part to not explain so yeah I would say you should explain.

if i refused to explain, would you think i'm scum? if so, why?

no but it would be antitown to not offer an explanation after dropping a vote on somebody(if its serious which u haven't clarified so idk)

this is a backtrack from post 64. Scummy climbdown in the face of a brick wall.

So far BM's the scummiest person here. I see his SR on me as trying to set up some easy limbait since I hear I tend to give off that first impression. Ofc we are still technically kinda in rvs so this is a fairly weak read but ye I will be putting this here for future reference of what I was thinking 3 pages into the game. First impressions can often help town find the scums so I'm not too sure if I found one but we'll see

You are probably literally the only person who thinks I'm remotely scummy here. I'm pretty obvtown, even from my own perspective. Also, you are playing that RVS card way too hard, although can let that slide as you're a newbie.

However, I actually like the above post. Feels like a legit misguided attempt to get bragging rights. Some townie points for you (although no bragging rights, because, i'm not scum, and you tunnelling me is not helping town).

"when I tried to pressure datisi"
wtf he dropped a vote on me and I asked for an explanation and u get this out of that?

stop discrediting everything I say by mentioning my inexperience. that's very scummy +200 scumpoints

"testing u"
it sounds more like u trying to set me up as limbait and are backpedalling right about now

but ok, if you didn't know the difference, what did you mean in 74 by calling my behaviour anti-town?

Dropping a vote without backing it up with reasons/evidence is definitely antitown behavior imo. It means ur not willing to even try to support it and convince others its right which makes me think u dont believe it urself. The only people that would be that sure who the scums are would be the scums themselves especially at this stage in the game

BM is basically only focusing on me and ngl that strikes me as pretty scummy considering I'm prolly one of the newest players in general in this game and I definitely strike most people as LHF first impression. Tunneling this early into the game is just a huge scumtell imo.

VOTE: Battle Mage

BM is basically only focusing on me and ngl that strikes me as pretty scummy considering I'm prolly one of the newest players in general in this game and I definitely strike most people as LHF first impression. Tunneling this early into the game is just a huge scumtell imo.

VOTE: Battle Mage

His entire play so far has been fluff and tunneling Noraa. There has been zero other content

I think a scum in (BM, noraa) seems likely above rand

Not sure if BM is scum at this point in time cuz as town, I've never actually been tunneled day 1 before. I've reread my entrance in attempt to seeing what I did differently this game that got me these reactions but I'm not seeing anything which is definitely adding to my suspicions on BM just being a scum trying to kill off some LHF day 1. Putting pressures on newbies generally always gets u some good "scum tells" but I find those often aren't AI instead are just a more experienced player trying to get a mislim. I think BM could very likely be a scum here tho. This is not backtracking no. Top of my scum reads is still BM. I am however not too sure if my read is accurate given my lack of experience.

However BM is the only one that is discrediting my opinions bc of inexperience. I'll quote some posts of his in my next post with that. It's either really rude of him or he is scum trying tp set me up to look like LHF so he can leave me til limlo where my opinions won't matter. I might be overthinking a shit ton considering we are on like page 5 but anyways yeah

In what sense, even vaguely, can you be said to have “busted my ass”

i had a list of 2 scum, you were on it. immediately afterwards you voted for me, apparently at least partly due to your fear that i would elim you (as you quoted that post when you voted me). Sorry dude but I'm taking those bragging rights to the bank, I busted your ass.

Ok ok I see a shit ton of posts directed at me. I'm not replying to all of them individually. that's way too much work especially when most the questions are basically the same. Someone compile the questions into one post and I'll reply to that. I agree that currently NoraavBM definitely gives for a TvS look. However I believe town should not only focus on us two. The reason is that town is going to let the other scums do whatever tf they want. {Noraa, BM} has at most one scum. I am 100% sure of this fact bc I am town however it seems town agrees also that a Bm/Noraa scum team would not work. I think we do need to be looking elsewhere as well is my point. You can continue to tunnel, yes. But I dont see much potential there considering even if best case scenario town lims scum!Bm, tomorrow you will realize that you tunneled the shit out of two players and have close to nothing on whoever the other scums are.

pedit:can y'all slow tf down I'm having a hard time keeping up

This is a town game that just finished a few minutes ago. I got semi tunneled at the very beginning and got super defensive. I almost died day 1 and I was a novice 3 shot vig. BM is the person that was tunneling me. I directly OMGUSed back and had a lot of anger and shit in there. I got myself so riled up that I vigged him and he ended up being a Town mailman-cop hybrid

I've learned since then that I need to tone it down but its obviously not been toned down enough.

[Noraa]

My defensiveness nearly got me killed day 1. I will try to tone it down this game bc I already caused a huge mess earlier this game by being super defensive.