Mini Theme 2172: Great Idea Mafia - Game Over

[redcardinal]

welcome to my townreads primate

[MURDERCAT]

sheeping murdercat VOTE: Plusjoyed

This is bold considering yesterday

[redcardinal]

sheeping murdercat VOTE: Plusjoyed

This is bold considering yesterday

wdym?

[MURDERCAT]

I sucked yesterday (or maybe username is also scum, in which case I would still have some dignity left)

[redcardinal]

eh, I don't see a point on townreading people based on whether they were actually right or not, town has very little information to work with

[redcardinal]

hell I might be wrong about townreading you, I do have my doubts, but plus is a good target for today

[MURDERCAT]

I want to hear from Ranny, but with an IC all day today I think we are looking good to poe to another scum flip today.

I looked through roles and I think there a few scenarios that could have lead to 3 kills being reduced to 2, e.g.
- doc on ranny
- bulletproof somewhere
- an RB/JK on someone sketchy like NPOM

So we could still be worse off than it looks

[iamausername]

Rannygazoo*

- IC

Herta

- not mafia. his vote was pretty pivotal in turning momentum to Italiano, and he had every reason to vote for me if he wanted to. could still be werewolf or whatever, his scumminess from early D1 remains, but i'm not particularly interested in pursuing that today.

redcardinal

- 100% not mafia, and like 99% town. she was clearly invested in securing a correct execution yesterday.

Primate*

- mafia.

PlusJOYED

Wiyvern

arachnidsGrip

- who the hell knows. claimed a useless role, acts like a useless player, could be scum trying to dodge crosskills, could just be an actual useless player. an extremely valid vote.

Iconeum*

- i've liked what i've seen from him, but could certainly stand to see more.

MURDERCAT

Assemblerotws

- probtown for the same reasons as redcardinal. unlike her, he was on the wrong side, but he clearly cared, and specifically clearly cared before Italiano was even on the table.

NoPowerOverMe

- like PlusJOYED but less useless. not mafia because if he's scum, he's a werewolf gravedigger.

EchoVision

- the main thing i remember about Echo is Primate declaring him obvtown for no apparent reason, he's been super null to me. he did vote for Italiano, though. like, i know bussing exists, but i feel like not in this setup, and especially not on a wagon that grew from actual nothing in the last 24 hours of the day.

that's where i'm at rn.

[redcardinal]

do remember that any anti-town factions that still exist are *probably* not mafia and thus wouldn't have a clue who the other anti-town factions are.

[MURDERCAT]

There's the most mafia roles, so of all the factions 2+ mafia is more likely than the others.

[redcardinal]

but that's assuming we even have 2+ of any anti-town faction

[Rannygazoo]

I want to hear from Ranny, but with an IC all day today I think we are looking good to poe

That's not going to get you very far. Just because you've solved my slot doesn't mean I can solve the game.

Rannygazoo*

- IC

Herta

- not mafia. his vote was pretty pivotal in turning momentum to Italiano, and he had every reason to vote for me if he wanted to. could still be werewolf or whatever, his scumminess from early D1 remains, but i'm not particularly interested in pursuing that today.

redcardinal

- 100% not mafia, and like 99% town. she was clearly invested in securing a correct execution yesterday.

Primate*

- mafia.

PlusJOYED

Wiyvern

arachnidsGrip

- who the hell knows. claimed a useless role, acts like a useless player, could be scum trying to dodge crosskills, could just be an actual useless player. an extremely valid vote.

Iconeum*

- i've liked what i've seen from him, but could certainly stand to see more.

MURDERCAT

Assemblerotws

- probtown for the same reasons as redcardinal. unlike her, he was on the wrong side, but he clearly cared, and specifically clearly cared before Italiano was even on the table.

NoPowerOverMe

- like PlusJOYED but less useless. not mafia because if he's scum, he's a werewolf gravedigger.

EchoVision

- the main thing i remember about Echo is Primate declaring him obvtown for no apparent reason, he's been super null to me. he did vote for Italiano, though. like, i know bussing exists, but i feel like not in this setup, and especially not on a wagon that grew from actual nothing in the last 24 hours of the day.

that's where i'm at rn.

What are the *s?

[Rannygazoo]

I find it funny/convenient that everyone posting so far has agreed to townread each other. I mean, there's a serious chance that town has already lost majority, or is on the verge of it. Going to wait for the other to post before I judge more.

[Rannygazoo]

What are the *s?

Oh, must be prods

[Rannygazoo]

@username: I think your premise of "people who pushed Italiano yesterday instead of username or redcardinal are town" is flawed. Yes, it resulted in

a

correct elim (not

the

correct elim), but it also upped the odds of no elim, which benefits scum. MURDERCAT and I had to scramble to avoid that. So I'm not convinced that everyone on the beginning of that wagon is town by default.

[iamausername]

@username: I think your premise of "people who pushed Italiano yesterday instead of username or redcardinal are town" is flawed. Yes, it resulted in

a

correct elim (not

the

correct elim), but it also upped the odds of no elim, which benefits scum. MURDERCAT and I had to scramble to avoid that. So I'm not convinced that everyone on the beginning of that wagon is town by default.

that would be a faulty premise if that was the premise i was working from.

i am working from two main premises here:

a) scum would not care who was executed, provided it wasn't one of their own. redcardinal and Murdercat both gave convincing signs that they did care. that's what makes them town to me.

b) people who pushed Italiano yesterday are

not mafia

. not the same thing as town. the rest of the Italiano wagon besides Murder/red was Ranny, Noraa and Titus - all confirmed town - and Herta and Echo, netiher of whom i have townreads on.

[MURDERCAT]

That's not going to get you very far. Just because you've solved my slot doesn't mean I can solve the game.

I think you underestimate how useful it is to have a conf town leading things

[Rannygazoo]

a) scum would not care who was executed, provided it wasn't one of their own. redcardinal and Murdercat both gave convincing signs that they did care. that's what makes them town to me.

The same is true for town, right? Town doesn't care who is executed, as long as it's not one of their own. I agree that flitting from wagon to wagon is scummy, but the absence of that doesn't prove towniness.

b) people who pushed Italiano yesterday are

not mafia

. not the same thing as town.

Agreed; bussing in multiball is a galaxy brain strat

the rest of the Italiano wagon besides Murder/red was Ranny, Noraa and Titus - all confirmed town - and Herta and Echo, netiher of whom i have townreads on.

But you are reading red/murder as town based on a), and I'm not sure that's right. Especially not your "100% town" on red. Her second half of day 1 looks better than her first half, but it's still not enough for me.

[redcardinal]

p sure I qualify as both caring a lot about yesterday's elim and having pushed italiano

[Rannygazoo]

I don't know if anyone cares, but I wrote a script over the night to calculate the odds of having any given number of scum. This is assuming that if the mod reaches 6 scum or 12 town while building the list, then the next roles are chosen as alignment-appropriate, rather than starting the whole list over and trying again. (This weighs it a little more towards having 6 scum, but otherwise doesn't make a huge difference.) https://pastebin.com/zmXTaRcm

I left out wild card because I don't think it makes sense unless the game is in person. So with 145 roles, 85 are town and 60 are scum. So the odds of any given slot rolling scum are 60/145 = 0.41. (Not a perfect analogy since it's drawing without replacement, but close enough.) With 13 slots, you'd expect 5.37 scum slots.

I found the odds to break down approximately as follows:

1. 1%
   
2. 4%
   
3. 11%
   
4. 21%
   
5. 30%
   
6. 32%

Of course, there can't be 1 or 2 because we caught one on day 1, and there were 2 night kills.

That's why I think town has lost majority or is close to it today. We have a good chance of eliminating scum today by sheer odds.

What I want to know is, is town better off hunting mafia buddies, or other factions?

[MURDERCAT]

I think tone regarding the wagon on day 1 is what should lead us, I do want to do some VCA because I haven't gotten to since I've been back and I know it would make Titus proud

[EchoVision]

ok so I'm bad. Noraa that was the sickest soul read I've ever seen.

Lol at the IC living. 2 scum teams? Or maybe 1 SK? Or maybe a vig?

could be 3 still

[EchoVision]

sheeping murdercat VOTE: Plusjoyed

what a mood

[MURDERCAT]

I will put effort into this game sometime.

I hope Noraa is reading this because I'm still floored by that soul read.

Echo, you like playing scum or town more?

[Rannygazoo]

VOTE: plusJOYED
Ok, let’s lolhammer an inactive slot