Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Game Over!

[Best Bird]

alternatively i would be okay elim'ing s&m today.

[Hoopla]

Also if we hit scum on today's elim I have a 25% chance of jailing the last scum and just autowinning tonight.

this is true. but it still requires assuming you're town, which i'm still finding it hard to believe.

i think the likeliest scumteams are:

S&M/N_M
S&M/dave
dave/N_M

but the last of those three seems weird now with N_M pushing dave. need to relook into when BB's bussing votes took place, but from memory, they came at times that made little sense to bus, and when there were a lot of other viable mis-elims.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I don't particularly care that much since I replaced in but if you guys want to throw the game by eliming me then its gonna be auto-lose tonight for town.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

like real talk, you know yesterday was bus-day

I wasn't on the bus.

hence I'm green not red - if i know SS is flipping red I'd be positioned way better than sitting on my thumbs while he gets rocketed off to mars.

[Infinity 324]

But if you’re town and were leaning towards voting me, scum didn’t have to bus?

[Best Bird]

Except wagons were even until right before deadline. There was no indication that it was going to be s_s.

still my comment on eliming you was snarky because your slot has been nothing but scummy by all participants. no elim is still best today.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

But if you’re town and were leaning towards voting me, scum didn’t have to bus?

SS got like 5 votes and I'm green and I didn't vote him so obv scum did bus.

I dunno why they bussed but I know they did it.

[Best Bird]

or it as an all town wagon and votes after the hammer don't count

[Smoke and Mirrors]

like something about the game state resolution yesterday is just weird af

we had potentially 3 people in redirector-POE, but mafia chose to remove Peta from that POE making it a SS-Infinity 1v1.

except the 1v1 didnt happen, it felt like a stalled game state with some wild ass theories getting thrown around.

then right before the deadline the game state cracks and a flood of votes come in on SS and he flips red.

That's not a typical 7p lylo 1v1 gladiate resolution.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

or it as an all town wagon and votes after the hammer don't count

its actually wild you think a scum team got to 7p lylo intact and then just decided to stick together and not bus.

[Best Bird]

or it as an all town wagon and votes after the hammer don't count

its actually wild you think a scum team got to 7p lylo intact and then just decided to stick together and not bus.

You realize that people's stances were made known even though votes weren't layed down right? It was quite possible that infinity ended up the elim or even a no elim occurred. It's wild you think scum bussed in elo when they didn't have to...

Granted, if they did, and somehow you are town, it's probably dave.

[Best Bird]

like - if either you or N_M are town, scum had the support to get infinity elimed or force a no elim yesterday.

[Infinity 324]

like something about the game state resolution yesterday is just weird af

we had potentially 3 people in redirector-POE, but mafia chose to remove Peta from that POE making it a SS-Infinity 1v1.

except the 1v1 didnt happen, it felt like a stalled game state with some wild ass theories getting thrown around.

then right before the deadline the game state cracks and a flood of votes come in on SS and he flips red.

That's not a typical 7p lylo 1v1 gladiate resolution.

Yeah I was thinking about this a bit.

I thought for a sec it was because s_s was town and we were being setup, and scum was waiting for one of us to vote the other.

But what I really think happened was that scum thought s_s could win a 1v1 against me. They waited for someone to vote me, while positioning themselves to put votes on me first if necessary. Since dave didn’t out who he was leaning towards, they thought s_s could still win up until he got elimmed.

I haven’t 100% made up my mind but I think that makes the most sense.

[Hoopla]

But what I really think happened was that scum thought s_s could win a 1v1 against me. They waited for someone to vote me, while positioning themselves to put votes on me first if necessary. Since dave didn’t out who he was leaning towards, they thought s_s could still win up until he got elimmed.

I haven’t 100% made up my mind but I think that makes the most sense.

this actually makes sense.

[Infinity 324]

I also think dave makes less sense to be scum from a mechanical POV than n_m or S&M—s_s presumably knew that hoopla would TR the neighborizer claim based on the stats, and it’s a low-risk option to go for low in the draft. The no kill makes some sense (especially when compared to a kill on mena) to get lilith out of pressure, and gives s_s an excuse to TR lilith.

[Infinity 324]

^ and taking 1-shot watcher early in the draft seems really bad.

[Hoopla]

^ and taking 1-shot watcher early in the draft seems really bad.

counter-argument: could be scum 1-shot commuter which isn't the worst move if scum are leaving the vigs with town.

1-shot watcher for scum in slot#4 does seem really unlikely, though.

[Infinity 324]

I guess that’s a bit more likely yeah. But that still seems quite weak and you don’t get wine benefits in that case.

[Not_Mafia]

Just elim Dave, look at the abrupt hammer, he wanted to be on the wagon fearing I would come in and lolhammer

[Not_Mafia]

I think it's obvious at least one of them is scum, and have thought S_S might be scum the whole game.
I've had no confidence at all in anything but stuff that ended up being wrong. Might as well see if this is any better.
VOTE: Something_Smart

"oh lol geeze guys I could have gone either way so might as well lolhammer for no apparent reason"

Look at this scumfuckery

[Infinity 324]

Who’s the partner?

[Not_Mafia]

Probably the rabbitman

[Hoopla]

thinking about this more, it may be optimal to elim today especially if S&M is one half of the team. and

especially

if N_M is the third.

the logic:

if we elim scum!S&M, there's no JK shenangians tonight. and given we would be down to one scum, it would prevent N_M from neighbourising

and

killing in the same night as scum don't have informed. so, if N_M is scum, he can't kill at night, which gives us an extra mis-elim. if N_M is town, and a kill happens, it confirms N_M as town as long as he neighbourises someone. this prevents us from burning a mis-elim on him if he's town.

this all hinges on S&M being scum. if they are, i think there's no way we don't brute force a win, as we get to test N_M

and

another slot in case we're wrong.

whereas, if we go the no-elim route we only get to test one slot other than S&M.

[Infinity 324]

Good point yeah.

[davesaz]

It would be an exaggeration to say there are more holes than correct points in that.
Only a slight exaggeration.