Mini 630: Council of Eville: Game Ovah!

[forbiddanlight]

alvinz95 has been tunneling in on me all game. Most of his other suspects have something or other to do with my case. But if I am town... then what? He's not backing himself up.

Doesn't make him scum, just possibly misguided or possibly scum. It ends up being a meta argument. Personally, I like his lynch because he's not backing himself up. And you don't need to lynch yourself to prove that.

[StrangerCoug]

If there's going to be considerable objections to the self-destruct gambit, then I won't pull it off. It's someone else's turn to attack alvinz95's supposed assuredness, though.

What do you think of #752? Do you see it as a slip?

[Dean Harper]

cerebus3 has not picked up his prod. He will be replaced...

Also prodding Goat.

[Rage]

Returned and am currently catching up, but I couldn't help but notice what's going on right now.

What do you think of #752? Do you see it as a slip?

How could it be a slip? Essentially, what you are saying is that if it is a slip then he is a Cop and you must be scum, but then why are you advocating for what I can only assume to be a claim? Eventually, that is.

I don't get how it could be any sort of a "slip". Cops don't really "slip", and "I know" doesn't sound too much like a scum slip to me, unless he was planning to bus you by revealing his own alignment, which would be silly and oh-so nooby. So, essentially what you are saying is that if indeed he is a Cop you, StrangerCoug, are anti-town, but then why are you advocating for more information? Another claim from alvinz95? Didn't he already say he was a vanilla?

I'll return to my usual activity in the morning. Now, sleep!

[Rage]

Crap, I pressed Submit too early.

Here is my pre-edited version of what I wanted to say:

What do you think of #752? Do you see it as a slip?

How could it be a slip? Essentially, what you are saying is that if it is a slip then he is a Cop and you must be scum, but then why are you advocating for what I can only assume to be a claim? Eventually, that is.

And here is my edited version:

I don't get how it could be any sort of a "slip". Cops don't really "slip", and "I know" doesn't sound too much like a scum slip to me, unless he was planning to bus you by revealing his own alignment, which would be silly and oh-so nooby. So, essentially what you are saying is that if indeed he is a Cop you, StrangerCoug, are anti-town, but then why are you advocating for more information? Another claim from alvinz95? Didn't he already say he was a vanilla?

Ugh.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

still not enough access to read these games..

[veerus]

Mod:

I'm not sure if you are US-based, but we had a 3-day weekend and many people skip town as the last summer hoorah.. Can we also get a vote count, please?

Fair enough. Veerus, return your vote to me. I'm taking your placeholder off.

Ok...

vote: forbiddanlight

.. I still think you're the best play for the day.

SC.. you've gone from attacking FL pretty hard at the start of D2 to jumping on alvinz so eagerly you forgot to vote for him and went straight to confirming your vote on him. As far as I could gather, your problem with him is that he has tunnel vision on *you*... which is valid. But, I must say that your play was pretty suspicious from the start and he did focus on you from early on in D1. Your play was dismissed by most (myself included) based on your meta which isn't a full proof argument to begin with. Also your self-destruction gambit idea is awful. Haven't we seen enough of it already? First Rage, then FL, now you.. Really? If you're a townie, you'd be doing scum a favor. And if you're scum and you actually go through with it, then you'd be doing the town a favor. Either way, it goes against your alignment. I am also of the opinion that some interactions between you and FL have been very friendly... too friendly, which only lends alvinz's suspicions more credit.

As for alvinz's "you know" comment.. it

could

be a slip.. but it just as well

could

be an emphasis on his confidence. Just like *I know* that lynching FL is the best play today. Not having a back-up plan isn't a valid argument either. Each new alignment revelation likely destroys more "card houses" than it strengthens. If you think too far ahead, you end up speculating too much and diluting the discussion with a lot of poorly reasoned arguments.

And, FL, I was going to call you out on hypocrisy but you did that all on your own. But..

It's completely trashing all the advantage we had from the doctor save. Is there ANY pro town reason for you to lynch yourself if you know you are town? And saying teaching alvinz tunnel vision fails isn't an answer since that's just being selfish in a way. You "HAVE" to be right. You do realize that by the end of the game everyone's role will be known and alvinz will be proven wrong or right then, right?

I must mention this as another point against you in the long-running list of inconsistencies that were outlined in my initial vote.

[StrangerCoug]

alvinz95 needs to learn the difference between knowledge and confidence. If by "I know" he meant "I'm almost certain", then he should have said that so it wouldn't be ambiguous so I wouldn't accuse him of a slip or a softclaim or whatever the heck it is.

As for alvinz95 being cop, nowhere did I say he had to be sane. I just said he had to have a guilty on me if he really did know. If alvinz95 is cop and I am town, then he's either insane or paranoid.

Is there anything else that anyone would like to clear up?

[Dean Harper]

Mod:

I'm not sure if you are US-based, but we had a 3-day weekend and many people skip town as the last summer hoorah.. Can we also get a vote count, please?

Fair enough. Veerus, return your vote to me. I'm taking your placeholder off.

Ok...

vote: forbiddanlight

.. I still think you're the best play for the day.

SC.. you've gone from attacking FL pretty hard at the start of D2 to jumping on alvinz so eagerly you forgot to vote for him and went straight to confirming your vote on him. As far as I could gather, your problem with him is that he has tunnel vision on *you*... which is valid. But, I must say that your play was pretty suspicious from the start and he did focus on you from early on in D1. Your play was dismissed by most (myself included) based on your meta which isn't a full proof argument to begin with. Also your self-destruction gambit idea is awful. Haven't we seen enough of it already? First Rage, then FL, now you.. Really? If you're a townie, you'd be doing scum a favor. And if you're scum and you actually go through with it, then you'd be doing the town a favor. Either way, it goes against your alignment. I am also of the opinion that some interactions between you and FL have been very friendly... too friendly, which only lends alvinz's suspicions more credit.

As for alvinz's "you know" comment.. it

could

be a slip.. but it just as well

could

be an emphasis on his confidence. Just like *I know* that lynching FL is the best play today. Not having a back-up plan isn't a valid argument either. Each new alignment revelation likely destroys more "card houses" than it strengthens. If you think too far ahead, you end up speculating too much and diluting the discussion with a lot of poorly reasoned arguments.

And, FL, I was going to call you out on hypocrisy but you did that all on your own. But..

It's completely trashing all the advantage we had from the doctor save. Is there ANY pro town reason for you to lynch yourself if you know you are town? And saying teaching alvinz tunnel vision fails isn't an answer since that's just being selfish in a way. You "HAVE" to be right. You do realize that by the end of the game everyone's role will be known and alvinz will be proven wrong or right then, right?

I must mention this as another point against you in the long-running list of inconsistencies that were outlined in my initial vote.

I know we had a three day weekend, but cerebus3 was prodded i believe on thursday. He never said he was leaving in thread, and his signature didnt reflect that either. Vote count will come after school today. (He also hasnt posted since page 26)

[Dean Harper]

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:

forbiddanlight - (4) Goatrevolt, alvinz95, Megatheory, veerus

alvinz95 - (2) StrangerCoug, forbiddanlight

(Just Kidding, it came right now ) With 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch a player.

[forbiddanlight]

I must mention this as another point against you in the long-running list of inconsistencies that were outlined in my initial vote.

Explain? There's a difference. I'm already being voted by a lot of the town and wasn't precisely self destructing. My self vote was to prevent an impulsive self hammer to spite everyone. Even if it's selfish and not pro town I could see myself doing it because I'm frustrated, so I prevented that. Now there is hope that someone OTHER than me might be lynched, and someone who's been relatively scummy and weasled out of a lynch already. SC is coming out of the blue willing to kill himself for no real game except supposedly making alvinz learn that tunnel vision is bad. That's not worth a townie life.

alvinz95 needs to learn the difference between knowledge and confidence. If by "I know" he meant "I'm almost certain", then he should have said that so it wouldn't be ambiguous so I wouldn't accuse him of a slip or a softclaim or whatever the heck it is.

Nah, I like the psychological effect of I know. It makes your case sound more solid if it has a semi firm foundation. His doesn't, but that's beside the point.

[veerus]

As for alvinz95 being cop, nowhere did I say he had to be sane. I just said he had to have a guilty on me if he really did know. If alvinz95 is cop and I am town, then he's either insane or paranoid.

Is there anything else that anyone would like to clear up?

If he's a cop, would he really claim this early in the game? I doubt it, especially since he already claimed vanilla. And you're really going out on the limb with your speculation here. IF alvinz95 is a cop (unknown) AND you're town (unknown), then surely the supposed cop's guilty readings on you are false (unconfirmed).

[StrangerCoug]

I'm going to sum up what I think went wrong here in one sentence:

If alvinz95 is vanilla as he says, then I misinterpreted #752.

IME, both online and off. misunderstandings often turn into arguments.

[Goatrevolt]

I'm kind of torn right now. I think BaB is more likely to be scum than Forbiddan, who would be in second place. The issue is that I think it may simply be better for us to lynch Forbiddan anyway because it would bring some closure to this case.

I think Alvinz is town. I'm 50/50 on StrangerCoug.

[alvinz95]

I'm kind of torn right now. I think BaB is more likely to be scum than Forbiddan, who would be in second place. The issue is that I think it may simply be better for us to lynch Forbiddan anyway because it would bring some closure to this case.

I think Alvinz is town. I'm 50/50 on StrangerCoug.

I think you're torn because your scum buddy just got OWNED by me. Basically more wishy-washy behavior between you and SC.

I read StrangerCoug's actions as over excited when he assumed I was the cop, which would be scum like, and his lamer reasoning on how I was scum because of that, later stating that the slip-up meant that I was scum, not cop. (confusing ain't it?)

[sthar8]

/hypocrisy.

It's good that you understand this. You just saved me from having to make a really big post.

That said, FL seems to be posting much more pro-town content than before. This isn't going to dissuade me from voting her, as twilight logic doesn't apply and there's a good chance that she's deperately doing anything she can to avoid being lynched today.

SC: To consider anything like that is anti-town. We'll know eventually if Alvinz was right, and you getting lynched wouldn't prove anything about alvinz's alignment.

Rage: Where's that post you promised? I don't care if it has the recent stuff, I just want your thoughts up till you joined the game.

[forbiddanlight]

That said, FL seems to be posting much more pro-town content than before. This isn't going to dissuade me from voting her, as twilight logic doesn't apply and there's a good chance that she's deperately doing anything she can to avoid being lynched today.

So, anyway, what happens if as the day goes on I consistently post pro town content? Are you just at the point where no matter what I do I get lynched? Why does this sound DANGEROUSLY close to policy? It isn't, I'm sure, but it's sure wrong. This game is not a black hole. There is no singularity of scumminess where you can say no matter what you do you are going to be lynched. To say so is being incredibly pig headed and liable to cause town loss.

[StrangerCoug]

I do want to switch over to forbiddanlight for a number of reasons. If I remember correctly, she claimed vanilla, so we don't have the danger of offing a power role with her.

If forbiddanlight is lynched and she flips scum, yay for most of the rest of us. We're that much closer to wiping out the Mafia. If, however, she is town, then a good deal of alvinz95's buddying accusations get thrown out the window.

alvinz95, I am going to stop reading your posts until you snap out of your tunnel vision, regardless of how much you believe it.

[Rage]

Rage: Where's that post you promised? I don't care if it has the recent stuff, I just want your thoughts up till you joined the game.

As and you shall receive,

Up until the point where I replaced Jshark:

BridgesAndBaloons reviewed Goatrevolt's votes, which I think is an accurate analysis

forbiddanlight was under the impression that Skillit is scum, which is based on her thinking he hid something in his posts, or filled them with a bunch of "noise". But then sthar8 provided a PBPA of her posts and came up with the result of nearly 50% noise. As of right now, forbiddanlight still hasn't provided much reasoning behind her ever-consistent suspicion of Skillit.

@Forbiddanlight, I'm going to try to get one of these up too, but could you post a PBPA of Skillit's posts, much like sthar8 did with you, with a Noise to Signal ratio? I don't mean to give you any sort of wiggle room here, I just want to know if you have something behind your view of Skillit (or the way he posts) or if it is just baseless suspicion.

@Sthar8, how did you analyze forbiddanlight's posts for your PBPA? Did you go into a view of all her posts and weed out the ones from other games?

Moving on, alvinz listed his "I see these as possible scum teams" a few pages back, but didn't provide any reasons beyond "I see these as being possible", and that's giving him more credit that he deserves.

@Alvinz, do you "know" if Goatrevolt or Forbiddanlight are scum? If not, why do you suspect either one to be scumbuddies with StrangerCoug? And how do you "know" that StrangerCoug is scum?

Right now I see your suspicions of GR, FL and SC much like I do forbiddanlight's suspicion of Skillit. Baseless suspicion. And your admittance of tunnel-vision is not very appealing, either.

Finally, forbiddanlight, do you think that quoting someone out of chronological order is a bad thing?

@Everyone, I wrote this rather quickly, so if there is anything you feel that I have missed please point it out and I'll address it/state my thoughts about it. Thanks.

[Rage]

EBWOP:

As

k

and you shall receive,

[sthar8]

Sthar8, how did you analyze forbiddanlight's posts for your PBPA? Did you go into a view of all her posts and weed out the ones from other games?

At the bottom of the normal thread view is a bar beginning with "Display posts from previous:" If you use the second drop down, you can select a single player and view all posts that player has made in the game. When analyzing a particular player's posts, clicking the white "page" icon near the top of the post will take you to that post in the full thread, allowing you to see what the post number is and read the contextual discussion.

Rage, who do you find suspicious at the moment?

So, anyway, what happens if as the day goes on I consistently post pro town content? Are you just at the point where no matter what I do I get lynched? Why does this sound DANGEROUSLY close to policy? It isn't, I'm sure, but it's sure wrong. This game is not a black hole. There is no singularity of scumminess where you can say no matter what you do you are going to be lynched. To say so is being incredibly pig headed and liable to cause town loss.

Correcting your scumtells after they are pointed out doesn't make them less valid. If someone were to become scummier than you, I would certainly move my vote. At this point, though, a good number of the theories being discussed assume you to be scum, and we can't act on any of them until after you're dead. In addition, you've been scummy enough today that anything we get from you is tainted until we're sure about your alignment. You said it yourself, you've been scummy enough up to this point that if we were to leave you alive, you'd distract the town and create confusion. I can't think of a reason why we'd let you live one more day. Catching scum and letting them go is just... scummy.

So, as promised

Vote: forbiddanlight

THIS PUTS FL AT L-1. PLEASE BE SURE EVERYONE IS READY TO MOVE ON BEFORE HAMMERING

[forbiddanlight]

@Forbiddanlight, I'm going to try to get one of these up too, but could you post a PBPA of Skillit's posts, much like sthar8 did with you, with a Noise to Signal ratio? I don't mean to give you any sort of wiggle room here, I just want to know if you have something behind your view of Skillit (or the way he posts) or if it is just baseless suspicion.

Have you read any of my posts? I already did an PBPA. May not have been noise to signal per se, but it was close e fucking nough. Everyone found it stupid. So, screw it, you can find it your own damn self.

Finally, forbiddanlight, do you think that quoting someone out of chronological order is a bad thing?

Because it's a great way to make a disjointed progression of suspicions to fake an inconsistency.

[forbiddanlight]

Well fuck all of you then.

Vote for...

Just kidding.

MOD THAT IS NOT A VOTE!

Anyway, moving along, have fun losing town. Fucking up the doctor's advantage was the only thing you accomplished today. I hope you all die in a fire of false accusation

Go fuck yourselves. I'm done with this shit.

[alvinz95]

Well fuck all of you then.

Vote for...

Just kidding.

MOD THAT IS NOT A VOTE!

Anyway, moving along, have fun losing town. Fucking up the doctor's advantage was the only thing you accomplished today. I hope you all die in a fire of false accusation

Go fuck yourselves. I'm done with this shit.

Those words hurt me. Boo.

Well anyway, those words really appealed to my emotions. If you aren't scum, I'm REALLY, REALLY sure that Goatrevolt and Strangercoug are scum.

[StrangerCoug]

forbiddanlight is a potty mouth. I wish she weren't, but she is. I don't like being sworn at either.

I'm pretty sure that at least one of forbiddanlight and alvinz95 is scum. forbiddanlight for her quick hammer and a lot of her actions early today. I think everybody knows by now why alvinz95 and I suspect each other.