Open 802: Jungle Oligarchy [Game Over]

[VP Baltar]

why is username town and not wolf for you ?

He is putting in real work trying to sort everyone. There isn't fakeness to his scumhunting. I can see clearly how his reads are evolving, so I feel pretty comfortable with him. If he lived to Xylo, I'd probably question that, but I don't think I need to be paranoid right now.

[innocentvillager]

He is putting in real work trying to sort everyone. There isn't fakeness to his scumhunting. I can see clearly how his reads are evolving

but literally wolves want to eliminate mafia so they can free kill right? it's just that username is being more obvious and methodical about it

if this is your reasoning for TRing username, i feel reasonably okay about username being wolf

[innocentvillager]

baltar if you and klyne are town i think we're looking at ahsoka mafia, bulge/username wolf.

we cannot hit town today or we autolose

bulge's play has been veryyyy meh. i remember town!bulge being a lot more helpful early on and when he got inactive/didn't produce much content he was very apologetic for the lack of help. sure mine has too but that's a separate conversation. I think scum!bulge feels like the game is going okay so he's not really trying that hard.

[VP Baltar]

He is putting in real work trying to sort everyone. There isn't fakeness to his scumhunting. I can see clearly how his reads are evolving

but literally wolves want to eliminate mafia so they can free kill right? it's just that username is being more obvious and methodical about it

if this is your reasoning for TRing username, i feel reasonably okay about username being wolf

You realize you aren't exactly a townread for me yet, right? I gave you a pass to prove yourself.

Username has been way more townie so far.

Basically, bulge and Ahoska are almost lock scum. One of you and Klyne are likely the third.

Dark horses would be clidd or username, but I don't personally need to go there. We got obv scum to cleanup first

[Ahsoka]

i didn't like Ahsoka's enter scumreading MC then switching off onto DV when some of the heat got off him

also would expect scum!Ahsoka to self-nom

I would not self nom here.

Also, I used the DV hammer to out who I was with my catchphrase.

[Ahsoka]

flavor, here’s the situation

I think you’re likely to be mafia, with a smaller chance of wolf or townie

If you’re town, our current objective is mainly to find the wolves so pls help us, but tbf if we hit town today it’s an autoloss for town

If you’re mafia, you can’t really win this without helping town eliminate wolf today, so if we hit wolf, it’s possible we’ll reconsider you for town

either way, I think you’re incentivized to genuinely help us solve wolves

I don’t get in these type of situations as scum. Me getting put on this list is outright always going to make me look incredibly scummy based on the gamestate.

I also specifically have a great track record as scum on alts, most are undefeated as scum, like April Ludgate, Pretentious, and Rick Dalton.

I am town here.

Wolf are obviously Klyne/VPB, at least one. I am not wrong on that.

[Ahsoka]

i was expecting me to die too! now i have to think about this game some more.

Ahsoka being on the hitlist feels to me like they put themself there as a desperation move to make us think they aren't the last mafia. there was no way the wolves were ever going for them. me and Titus as the other choices is obv revenge for getting their buddy Murdercat executed.

wolves choosing to kill Titus over me makes me think that Klyne could be town; i've been suspicious of Klyne pretty much from the start, so i feel like wolves are angling for Klyne as a potential mislim target.

still think Bulge is a wolf, and i think Baltar and clidd are town, which would leave IV as the other wolf. does that track?

mmm... yeah, Bulge was never on the D2 Plus/IV wagon, which seems somewhat out of character, now that i look at it. and Titus was still suspicious of IV after his replace in, when i feel like most people kind of dropped him as a suspect once he was engaging with the game.

will probably reread some stuff at some point (most likely at the weekend) to see if anything jumps out, but right now, this feels like a pretty good working theory.

pedit: or perhaps it's me they want as the mislim target. hadn't considered that angle.

This is last mafia esque thing to say.

[Ahsoka]

Like I’m actually kinda annoyed IV, I’ve stated my wolf reads all day yesterday.

I am not wrong.

[Klyne]

AHSOKA I THINK YOUR HEAD IS SO FAR UP YOUR ASS THAT YOU SHIT THROUGH YOUR MOUTH BUT I THINK YOURE TOWN AND I WANT TO HEAR WHY YOU THINK ITS VPB BECAUSE VPB IS ALL LIKE OOH OOH KLYNE THEN WHEN IM LIKE LETS GO HE COWERS OUT AND IM GETTING TIRED OF IT

AT LEAST TITUS TRIED

F FOR TITUS

[Klyne]

baltar if you and klyne are town i think we're looking at ahsoka mafia, bulge/username wolf.

we cannot hit town today or we autolose

bulge's play has been veryyyy meh. i remember town!bulge being a lot more helpful early on and when he got inactive/didn't produce much content he was very apologetic for the lack of help. sure mine has too but that's a separate conversation. I think scum!bulge feels like the game is going okay so he's not really trying that hard.

Kinda just think Bulge is the last mafia which is way less useful

[VP Baltar]

HE COWERS OUT

Excuse me?

[VP Baltar]

It did just occur to me that one possible explanation for last night's kill is that the wolves are username and Ahoska.

That theory only becomes relevant with an Ahoska flip though imo.

[innocentvillager]

Like I’m actually kinda annoyed IV, I’ve stated my wolf reads all day yesterday.

I am not wrong.

what exactly are you annoyed about? I was just trying to make clear that regardless of whether you are mafia or town I think our incentives align. that said if you are a wolf whatever. I just think it's very hard for anyone to be mafia except for me, you, and bulge, so fmpov the PoE is lessened a lot.

you are that confident in your wolf reads? forgive me if I don't just completely trust your reads. I will re-ISO your arguments more closely

[innocentvillager]

It did just occur to me that one possible explanation for last night's kill is that the wolves are username and Ahoska.

That theory only becomes relevant with an Ahoska flip though imo.

if username is wolf with not!Ahsoka, do you think they for sure kill Ahsoka? is that what this implies?

[innocentvillager]

I don’t get in these type of situations as scum. Me getting put on this list is outright always going to make me look incredibly scummy based on the gamestate.

I also specifically have a great track record as scum on alts, most are undefeated as scum, like April Ludgate, Pretentious, and Rick Dalton.

the thing is, if you replaced into a mafia slot, you were simply fucked from the galaxii flashwagon

so regardless of how good of a scum player you are, I don't really buy that here

[innocentvillager]

If he lived to Xylo, I'd probably question that, but I don't think I need to be paranoid right now.

i want to reiterate that this is essentially XyLo. we cannot hit town today, unless im not understanding the setup correctly

[innocentvillager]

flavor, I don't see a ton of conviction in the latter part of your ISO, so i am wondering where all the sudden confidence comes from

that said I don't think you're a wolf unless you are heavily distanced from your buddy/want to flip, or your buddy is so deepwolfed (e.g. clidd, VP Baltar, Klyne). I think you try a lot harder for your wolf game and are more aware of your progressions, etc.

[VP Baltar]

It's not Xylo.

Scum win by comprising majority. There are 4 town, 2 wolves, 1 mafia rn. If we misyeet and wolves kill town, it is still 2, 2, 1 --- which would be Xylo.

[VP Baltar]

that said I don't think you're a wolf unless you are heavily distanced from your buddy

Who is his buddy? I don't understand how you're arriving at that.

[innocentvillager]

i take it back. It is not Xylo. But Xylo with 2 town, 2 wolf, 1 mafia will be harder than a normal Xylo for town to win.

If we eliminate town wolves win

If we eliminate mafia then wolf will kill town and wolves will win

Because of this, last mafia must work with town to eliminate a wolf. If we eliminate wolf then mafia can wifom with the hitlist. If last wolf hits a townie then mafia wins, so wolf will probably not kill. Then it will be 2,1,1. We need to hit exactly the wolf, and then the mafia, in that order.

[clidd]

Although my accuracy is not so good this game, I do believe that Bulge and Ahsoka are the least towny for me.

[clidd]

No idea about who can be wolf.

Both are can be a faction coinflip in my eyes.

[innocentvillager]

that said I don't think you're a wolf unless you are heavily distanced from your buddy

Who is his buddy? I don't understand how you're arriving at that.

flavor leaf prides himself on his scumgames. what he's doing here isn't a particularly impressive scumgame.

i get the sense that one of the following is true:

a) he replaced into mafia!Taly-slot on D2, realized people were onto MC with galaxii already gone, realized it was a lost cause, and hasn't really been trying.
b) he replaced into wolf!Taly-slot, his partner got pretty deepwolfed at some point, so he tried to distance from partner to eventually flip and let his partner win. this could explain why he isn't trying that hard and hasn't really been putting on a show/being his usual Flavor self
c) he's town. People can do just about anything if they're town, I've found

It seems much less likely that he replaced into wolf!Taly-slot with a wolf partner who is heavily suspected, and isn't trying really hard to win.

if Ahsoka is wolf, i think it could not be with me or Bulge, also less likely username or Klyne. it's somewhat more plausible that he's wolf-wolf with VPB or clidd.

[clidd]

But I believe that the last member of mafia must be less energetic than normal, considering that the two previous members were not exactly competitive.

[innocentvillager]

vpb regardless of what you think about me I still think your reasons for TRing username are simply NAI in multiball, and I'd like to see if you have counterpoints against my counterpoints I brought up

pedit: i agree, bulge or ahsoka could fit that