So I guess your whole ‘Luca, Trendall, Momrangal’ thing was just a cover for the fact you wanted associative info from Momrangal, Grendel?
I haven’t done any analysis yet so maybe I’ve missed something, but I think Galron could still be scum?
Yes! I figured including more then one person would make what i was doing less blatant. I recognize i didnt say a lot about my sus on Momrangual yesterday, and i was worried if i came into today guns blazing at momrangual it could be Obvi to scum that I had a red check on her. Which they could use to bus/distance premature to me publicly outing. It would muddy the waters a great deal if that occurred.
-/-/-/-/-
*@Frogster*
Froster, im actually a pretty intuitive player in a lot of situations. Out of my interest in "playstyle types", and "roles in discussion" I've tried out lots of different methods in engaging games, and I tend to try and morph into whats most useful at that moment. Granted im by no means a particularly skillful player. I just happened to have a PR this game that could confirm my suspicions. Most games I am bad at garnering strong conviction behind my scum reads.
I think that your application of "OCEAN" in early game turned out much more effective in winning the game then its ever been for me when I've tried "RQS" reaction testing in the past. I'd reckon that you are the better player between us. X)
In post 1283, Grendel wrote:Mommrangual scum clears Outworlder as town as that was her most aggressive push. Outworlder push was there to save Scum!bugs from a flip. IDK what other's reasons. She also had some movement towards gamma when she got cuaght up today, meanwhile was looking past some reads she had on plays at EoD. Which could def be a pivot away from having to risk flipping bugs/lunar/trendall today. I'd say Trendel definitely looks worse via associates b/c despite being in Momrang's PoE pool most of D1 she always seemed to prioritize other slots.
bugs and Mommrangual D1 interactions did look pretty bad. But I had a silly pet theory about the neighborhood b/c i didnt realize that the back ups were picked via rng. I thought that the Mod being a more "Mindgamey" character would have this large hood all town to screw with peoples heads. XD
Lucia looks more town now that i consider how hard he was bussing meanwhile Momrangul was trying to shift the D1 Bugs wagon elsewhere. Seems like a clash that a team who are fimilar with each other are less likely to have. Its not impossible, but its definitely unlikely.
Roles were assigned randomly to people, but I think each role was created and then assigned. Its not like roles were assigned and then a few people were randomly given backup neighbor. That's why the RNG thing is misleading and I don't trust Gamma for saying that. It's a really strange argument that doesn't make sense based on my understanding of the way games are created and approved. It's true that roles were given out randomly, but the alignment of each role is not random. The only random aspect is who has the role. Right?
I think all the Mafia are within Mom, Trendall, bugs, and Gamma. I guess I'll vote either person we have a guilty on today and tomorrow, and then I have a preference for Trendall over Gamma the following day.
Question though: how would a tracker have a guilty? Especially if Amelie wasn't the intended kill? Or was Amelie targeted by Mom?
In post 1302, Lunar Martian wrote:I think all the Mafia are within Mom, Trendall, bugs, and Gamma. I guess I'll vote either person we have a guilty on today and tomorrow, and then I have a preference for Trendall over Gamma the following day.
Question though: how would a tracker have a guilty? Especially if Amelie wasn't the intended kill? Or was Amelie targeted by Mom?
What’s this about by the way?
<Embrace The Void>
“A flipped coin doesn't always land heads or tails. Sometimes it may never land at all...”
In post 1306, NoPowerOverMe wrote:All the roles are created during the game creation process approved by the game reviewers and assigned randomly as far as I know.
So the notion that two people were randomly added to the neighborhood is wrong. They seemed to imply that the randomness made them more likely Town and a few people bought that.
do not assume my posts follow coherency they do not imagine that every time i post i put half of my knowledge into a clone and then the clone murders me
right and i was a backup neighbor and mechwise theres really no way for gamma to also join the hood other than also being backup
MY PRONOUNS ARE THEY/THEM
do not assume my posts follow coherency they do not imagine that every time i post i put half of my knowledge into a clone and then the clone murders me
It's okay, I don't think there is any way for you guys to win anymore, I already have a guilty on Bugs and I'm investigating Momrangal tonight, I think you should just surrender if that's a possibility.
Dont worry about investigating Momrangal. I checked her last night and shes mafia.
I think we've decided in the hood to just go ahead and lay it out. We've got enough information in the main thread now that we can make an intelligent decision.
The hood started with Trendall, Amelie and me. Amelie dies, and Bugs & Gamma show up.
Amelie's town obviously. I was thinking before she died that Trendall may be scum, but I was coming around to him being town and it being an all-town hood because believing Bugsy's claim that they were backup neighbor it makes no sense from a balance standpoint to send in a scum backup or a traitor into a hood that already contains scum. But then Gamma showed up, and that threw a wrench into it. It didn't change my read on Trendall, but it led me to think either that one of Bugs or Gamma may be scum or that we still had an all-town hood. So I'm kind of doing this at the hood's peril, but if there is scum in the hood, town needs this information.
In the hood I've been town reading Trendall and Bugs, and more recently leaning townish on Gamma, with reservations on the latter. Bugs was willing to be a spokesperson and passed along some information and made sure to ask what we wanted passed along, and they've just generally been solvy to the point of raising concerns about me more recently. Trendall is extremely solvy in the hood. So I don't think it's a good idea to eliminate Trendall or Bugs ( caveat: I need to learn more about this guilty that frogster has -- I don't see a crumb but I've been moving through the thread pretty quickly).
And it should also be known that Amelie wanted to pass along that she was townreading momrangel, but with Grendel's guilty, that depends on how much everyone trusts Grendel.
Since we're doing a mass claim type deal I'm not really the psychologist, I was keeping the claim out there in the hopes of encouraging the scum team to give up and slip "because the setup is too townsided" and possibly eat the Night Kill. I saw that Momrangal, Trendall, and Bugs were all posting in the thread at the same time, and they were my current game solve, so I threw it out there as a fake claim to get reactions. Bugs had just said in their last post they were sleepy and playing catch up, so I thought they might be more inclined to believe the fake claim than not.
I figured Bugs reaction at least is a slam dunk for scum:
It's okay, I don't think there is any way for you guys to win anymore, I already have a guilty on Bugs and I'm investigating Momrangal tonight, I think you should just surrender if that's a possibility.
Like imagine the police have a sudden breakthrough in a murder case resulting in a surprising new suspect, and the police show up to the suspect's door to arrest them and the suspect greets them at the door like "Why do you wait so long to bring it up?"
I breadcrumbed my intent to fake claim psychologist in my response to Lunar in 1231 . I saw that players I scum read were sort of posting in the evening and players I town read were coming on later at night, so my idea was to throw the reaction test out in the evening and then try to soft to my town reads what was going on when they came on later, and dissuade anyone from revealing too much based on my claim if necessary, which you can see me doing here:
Spoiler:
In post 1281, Frogsterking wrote:I think we can wait to speculate on you and any town PRs until we know what the scum power have and confirm it's auto win (like one way of balancing three investigative could be to run a 3 scum 1 traitor setup).
I suggest checking my response to Lunar in 1231 .. to help understand the context. This is the guilty and Bug's and Trendall's reaction to the guilty:
In post 1253, Frogsterking wrote:..It must have been pretty frustrating for the scum team when an entire town block was formed on page like 5, and then eventually sixth member Luca was proposed, and all six of these players were actually town. Then, one of the few town players in opposition to the town block, Amelie, ended up eating the kill instead of your obvious pr NK target. I'm not going to mis hammer on Lunar or OutWorldER anymore so if you three are over it, there's no shame in surrendering, I don't see any win condition for you.
It's okay, I don't think there is any way for you guys to win anymore, I already have a guilty on Bugs and I'm investigating Momrangal tonight, I think you should just surrender if that's a possibility.
In post 1281, Frogsterking wrote:I think we can wait to speculate on you and any town PRs until we know what the scum power have and confirm it's auto win (like one way of balancing three investigative could be to run a 3 scum 1 traitor setup).
should we coordinate our targets tonight?
It depends on how bad you think Bugs and Trendall's reactions were.. I suggest checking on Lunar as well and my response to Lunar in 1231 ..
I'm sure Bugs has been very solvey in the hood as it was probably their attempt to pocket the hood, knowing everyone else in there is town. I don't think Bugs throwing dirt at Galron is necessarily a town tell as in the main thread Grendel and Luca both mentioned some suspicion. I think Lunar is working the Trendall angle, Momrangal is working the Gamma angle, and Bugs is trying to work the Galron angle, all because one or more town players have mentioned a little bit of suspicion. Now Lunar is trying to double down on the Gamma angle with Momrangal, but I'll get to my scum cases for Momrangal and Lunar in my next post.
Bruce: Terry. I've been thinking about something you once told me... and you were wrong. It's not Batman that makes you worthwhile; it's the other way around. Never tell yourself anything different.
Terry: ...Thanks.
W/e I don't think it will matter as long as you don't fall for whatever BS Bugs spun in the hood or Lunar's attempts to pocket and discredit us over the last few pages. I'm still writing my scum cases on Momrangal and Lunar.
#10, the first section, is about mislynches based off fake claiming.
Bruce: Terry. I've been thinking about something you once told me... and you were wrong. It's not Batman that makes you worthwhile; it's the other way around. Never tell yourself anything different.
Terry: ...Thanks.
I'm sure it's fascinating. Like you ppl are talking about the game as if it's solved mechanically, and I can't be bothered to look into what the arguments are so I'm just assuming that this is the case and that I've won this as I'm town. Makes no difference what I do at this point.
Based on what Galron said I think Lunar is most definitely scum and my initial reaction to Lunar's scum case on Trendall was correct, Lunar is scum and Trendall is town and Lunar is just trying to work their way out of the PoE. I'm also curious if Bugspray was genuinely attempting to scum hunt by questioning Galron or if Bugspray was just fishing around for PR reads.
Lunar
In the spoilers below you can see how Lunar is both attempting to push and pocket Trendall, and both discredit and pocket me at the same time, like they don't care as long as it helps them survive a little longer. You can also see Lunar appealing to both Trendall and I, as though Lunar knows we're both town and is trying to get us on their side, but also wants to leave us open to push, especially Trendall, who Lunar views as an easier target. You can see this happening below:
In post 1214, Gamma Emerald wrote:That post doesn’t read as nice, it reads as condescending. “Strange internet people”? That sort of rhetoric serves no purpose than to aggress others. Why are the people strange to you??? And saying “his reads aren’t that great” is not a good look when he also suspects you. VOTE: Lunar Martian
Nah fuck this. When I break it down that post is loaded with blatant discrediting.
I am one of those strange internet people. What are you talking about? Frogsters reads are probably OK, I just mean his psychoanalysis.
That doesn’t change that nothing about that tone seemed polite or respectful. I still think you were shading him.
OK. You're wrong. I was just saying something to cheer Trendall up a bit, it had nothing to do with the game. It really wasn't much of a dig at Frogster either.
In post 1214, Gamma Emerald wrote:That post doesn’t read as nice, it reads as condescending. “Strange internet people”? That sort of rhetoric serves no purpose than to aggress others. Why are the people strange to you??? And saying “his reads aren’t that great” is not a good look when he also suspects you. VOTE: Lunar Martian
Nah fuck this. When I break it down that post is loaded with blatant discrediting.
I am one of those strange internet people. What are you talking about? Frogsters reads are probably OK, I just mean his psychoanalysis.
In post 1209, Lunar Martian wrote:Also don't mind Frogster, he didn't mean anything by it and also isn't as good at reading people as he thinks. It's only a game with strange internet people. We don't know anything.
Okay if I change my vote again it’s going to this, this looks awful
Yeah being nice to people is really awful, how dare I.
In post 1212, Lunar Martian wrote:I feel like every time Gamma posts I become more convinced that he's posting with some agenda rather than because he's trying to solve the game.
In post 1205, Trendall wrote:"Well then why are you voting for me then?! TRENDALL SLIPPED!"
were you lining up for roughly something like that to be your next post? be honest
No, if you re-evaluate now you can always unvote if you decide you think I'm town. I take that response to mean you do think it's more likely that I'm town though. People change their minds all the time.
In post 1135, Lunar Martian wrote:I'm more confident in Trendall than in bugs, but if no one else is going to vote bugs today I'll switch. Could I ask everyone to give me a reason they don't want to vote Trendall though?
In post 1167, Lunar Martian wrote:Frogster, I thought you were going to rethink and not just tunnel me anymore.
If you look at the shift in game state following my claim, which took the game state from "IDK who is town time to reassess" to "setup is townsided and there are multiple guilties" (which was followed up by Grendel's guilty by the time Lunar came on), and compare Lunar and Trendall's reactions, Trendall's reaction is like "yee-haw let's get 'em!!!" and Lunar's is like "I won't go down without a fight!!!"
You can see the difference in the spoilers below:
Lunar's reaction to the guilties (Lunar barely acknowledges them and keeps fighting a mute point to keep Gamma under contention):
In post 1306, NoPowerOverMe wrote:All the roles are created during the game creation process approved by the game reviewers and assigned randomly as far as I know.
So the notion that two people were randomly added to the neighborhood is wrong. They seemed to imply that the randomness made them more likely Town and a few people bought that.
In post 1302, Lunar Martian wrote:I think all the Mafia are within Mom, Trendall, bugs, and Gamma. I guess I'll vote either person we have a guilty on today and tomorrow, and then I have a preference for Trendall over Gamma the following day.
Question though: how would a tracker have a guilty? Especially if Amelie wasn't the intended kill? Or was Amelie targeted by Mom?
In post 1283, Grendel wrote:Mommrangual scum clears Outworlder as town as that was her most aggressive push. Outworlder push was there to save Scum!bugs from a flip. IDK what other's reasons. She also had some movement towards gamma when she got cuaght up today, meanwhile was looking past some reads she had on plays at EoD. Which could def be a pivot away from having to risk flipping bugs/lunar/trendall today. I'd say Trendel definitely looks worse via associates b/c despite being in Momrang's PoE pool most of D1 she always seemed to prioritize other slots.
bugs and Mommrangual D1 interactions did look pretty bad. But I had a silly pet theory about the neighborhood b/c i didnt realize that the back ups were picked via rng. I thought that the Mod being a more "Mindgamey" character would have this large hood all town to screw with peoples heads. XD
Lucia looks more town now that i consider how hard he was bussing meanwhile Momrangul was trying to shift the D1 Bugs wagon elsewhere. Seems like a clash that a team who are fimilar with each other are less likely to have. Its not impossible, but its definitely unlikely.
Roles were assigned randomly to people, but I think each role was created and then assigned. Its not like roles were assigned and then a few people were randomly given backup neighbor. That's why the RNG thing is misleading and I don't trust Gamma for saying that. It's a really strange argument that doesn't make sense based on my understanding of the way games are created and approved. It's true that roles were given out randomly, but the alignment of each role is not random. The only random aspect is who has the role. Right?
Trendall (seems a lot more townie, reacts to the shift in game state then becomes excited):
In post 1255, Frogsterking wrote:It's okay, I don't think there is any way for you guys to win anymore, I already have a guilty on Bugs and I'm investigating Momrangal tonight, I think you should just surrender if that's a possibility.
It's just so embarrassing to read this when I know you're not correct aaaaa
In post 1261, Trendall wrote:Looks like the neighbourhood ain't happy about that claim.
I think Momrangal's claim of motion detector is true, except she is a scum motion detector, and that is part of the power scum got. It makes sense she would investigate OutWorldER as a potential pr, and use her claim now as an attempt to pocket him. (ie OutWorldER: "That's right!! I really DIDN'T visit anyone!")
Momrangal builds off of Lunar's push against the town block and hood (specifically Gamma) without acknowledging Lunar, and instead acknowledges my out-there theory involving Gamma night killing Amelie and a mutual chainsaw defense between Gamma and Lunar (without really bringing up Lunar) :
I think here may be where I want to venture into the most .
I'm still wrapping my mind around the double chain saw, but I do think that, if Gamma is scum, then Bugs and Lunar are assuredly town. The more I think about it, the more I'm bothered by the fact that he was and is so non-chalant about there being two backup neighbors and dismissing the fact that one of them could be scum
In post 1217, Momrangal wrote:I also had just came across Frogs case against Gamma, it needs over night marination but I can see sense in that stance.
In regards to trendall vs OWER, It would be a weird bussing position to take when I had clear suspicions on both slots.
At that point in time, the only reason I can think of for trendall scum jumping on after me is he either knew OWER to be scum with him and maybe clearing him on that bus
Or
To set up mislynches.
OWER wasnt getting off and there were other easier mislynches to be had. It's just overall weird
Momrangal displays some ideas here indicating she's thought about the night kill from the scum perspective already:
In post 1139, Frogsterking wrote:@Momrangal Do you believe Amelie was the target of the night kill or ate the bullet for someone else?
Amelie was town af but she had a temperament that scum could use. She was pretty town, but it didn't seem like she could gather clout this game, nor did she really have the skills to get people to follow her.
Imo, multiple people were obvtown D1 and two of have potential to become town leaders going forward.
Similar to what I pointed out about Lunar's vagueness during the opening stage, it seems like on Momrangal's return from V/la she hasn't really slipped into character yet, and there is a vagueness to her ideas which she's attempting to cover by posting a lot of aphorisms and fluff and repeating what I've said (which furthers the scum team agenda against Gamma) :
How much longer until your v/la is over? I was wanting to hear your thoughts on the gamestate today.
In particular your thoughts on Trendel, OutWorlder, Luca, and also thoughts surrounding EoD1.
Now, gonna take awhile to catch up but I agree with your haunch. There are bigger town fish to fry unless all the big fish are scum and I feel like a big fish so....
In post 1090, Luca Blight wrote:I don't see the progression here. One of the people pushing NPOM was Momrangal herself, who gave absolutely no reasoning at all for her vote. Also, one of these 'crappy' pushes against NPOM came from Bugs, who Momrangal seemingly doesn't want to suspect or pressurize.
Y'know
You totally missed the fact that I voted NPOM when I beleived NPOM to be town
The last thing I want to point out was that Momrangal took advantage of the opportunity to pocket both Amelie and I at the same moment, which was very successful for her, at least until Amelie ate the night kill. This is when she pocketed both of us and when Amelie and I both decided to town read her:
In post 777, Amélie wrote:You recently said you reviewed my posting and thought me town. Then soon after I moved you to my scum reads and this post followed.
Can you talk to me about how you are thinking?
That isn’t an accurate representation of the timeline
I feel like it’s hard to parse out what factors into your reads so they come across as baseless and random
Amelie is a bit disorganized but, she posts stream of thought posts in the attempt or organize and communicate her thoughts and ideas which I maintain is difficult for newer scum to do. It looks like to me that her mind is moving much faster than she is able to get down on paper and it does show that she is trying to solve a puzzle vs trying to manipulate the situation to make it look like she is solving a puzzle.
In post 812, Frogsterking wrote:Well it looks like you're both in your early 20s so scratch that theory out.
Replace chronological age with mafia age. There is an unnatural amount if irration and useage of energy trying to keep up with the newer generation of mafia
Including an irritation at you for dropping amelie down to null- maybe scum
In post 779, Grendel wrote:I'd say you're allergic to me lol. If you can think of a reason every single post a player makes is scummy then you're trying very hard to make the player in question look scummy in your mind.
If this is where it stands then im not sure if theres much point in me engaging you this game.
You asked about why I said "if you're both town then chill out" w/regards to the Lunar Vs Luca thing. Its a means of discouraging self-destructive town tendencies, its a net neutral as far as telling scum it i think? "if you're both town" just appeals to a player's better nature in general. I use the phrase pretty regularly in most games i play.
The bolded is what I find unsettling in this post. My Grendel scum read is definitely still there.
In post 779, Grendel wrote:That interesting b/c the whole "keeping up with the game, and summarizing whats happening" is a crutch i leaned in hard on when i was inexperienced scum. Players are less liekly to turn on you when you say mostly uncontroversial things as a newer player in site meta. I will have to read AGambling Pigs posts agian as I dont recall them v well.
They had only 5 posts so I'm not sure it really meant much.
In post 780, Grendel wrote:"Quick lets flip this inactive slot before we get a replacement!" Froggking looking really town if AGB slot turns out to be mafia.
This is a super bad way to describe this and makes Frogsterking look particularly bad if ORAM ever flips town. I dislike ORAM's posts but I dislike the way you are approaching them even more.
In post 784, Grendel wrote:Not really sure about the idea of flipping ORAM today since its so low info tho.
This feels like you want it to happen later so Frogsterking can die right after.
In post 790, Lunar Martian wrote:I think Grendel is right to point out that ER has been inactive since pressure started to build on them. The pressure consequently dissipated, and they have remained inactive except a quick comment after being prodded.
In post 782, Grendel wrote:Lunar standing in the face of death and actively tempting Luca to hammer runs contrary to how survivalistic most scum are. It would be safer in that situation to just go ahead and (fake)claim and hope for the best as scum. Lunar actively spiting on that notion and aggressing the players active in that point of time is pretty inline with town behavior.
in short i think Lunar is more likely town then scum.
I get where you’re coming from, but I could also see that behavior coming from scum who know their time is up/are getting bussed.
I do think Bugs is the more likely scum of the two, and my recent meta-dive reinforces this belief.
I feel like if Bugspray was scum, they could just claim something really powerful and they'd be safe for the rest of this game. What they claimed doesn't match that description.
In post 803, Frogsterking wrote:I'm willing to hammer Lunar, ORAM, and bugs today in that order of preference. I'd be pretty stunned if there isn't at least one scum in this group and not very stunned at all if there are three.
Nulls I have are Trendall and OutworldER.
I townread everyone else. If one of my townreads is wrong my first pick would be Amelie as a proxy read off Gamma's intuition and my second pick would be NPOM because of his profile. There is also a weak associative tell I pointed out between the ORAM slot and Momrangal.
I think I'm going to drop Frogsterking to a scum read. It feels to me like he is looking for the easy pushes.
In post 717, Amélie wrote:I feel like this is either a huge play style clash or you are scum. I hate nearly every post you post.
Curious why frogster didn’t address this when bringing up that point about emotion before
Btw I think part of the problem with your posts Amelie is you put your thoughts behind the spoiler= tag so it’s harder to engage with.
If I did not put them in spoilers, people might complain about their length.
In post 816, Gamma Emerald wrote:@NPOM and the other anti-s: still this personality stuff is bullshit?
I did not read that entire block of text. If Frogsterking can summarize it and make it shorter, I am willing to read it.
In post 777, Amélie wrote:You recently said you reviewed my posting and thought me town. Then soon after I moved you to my scum reads and this post followed.
Can you talk to me about how you are thinking?
That isn’t an accurate representation of the timeline
I feel like it’s hard to parse out what factors into your reads so they come across as baseless and random
Amelie is a bit disorganized but, she posts stream of thought posts in the attempt or organize and communicate her thoughts and ideas which I maintain is difficult for newer scum to do. It looks like to me that her mind is moving much faster than she is able to get down on paper and it does show that she is trying to solve a puzzle vs trying to manipulate the situation to make it look like she is solving a puzzle.
I don't think scum defends me here and this is a very accusation representation of my play. I am very overwhelmed by the amount posted and am always catching up again and again. Momrangal moved back up to a townread.
In post 833, Gamma Emerald wrote:yeah that kinda seems to be the case imo as well
your breakdown of me v. Amelie and grednel v. Amelie really made that click I think. It also covered my question towards you before of you you weren't factoring in Amelie's own distaste for Grendel, fwiw
I thought you just called Frogsterkings personality tests bullshit.
I'm not entirely confident on this but I'm going with the consensus
This is the worst vote on bugspray so far. Im dropping this to null.
For now, since the deadline is coming up and no one particularly agrees with my reads, I will compromise and
VOTE: Lunar Martian
Bruce: Terry. I've been thinking about something you once told me... and you were wrong. It's not Batman that makes you worthwhile; it's the other way around. Never tell yourself anything different.
Terry: ...Thanks.
In post 1322, Trendall wrote:I'm sure it's fascinating. Like you ppl are talking about the game as if it's solved mechanically, and I can't be bothered to look into what the arguments are so I'm just assuming that this is the case and that I've won this as I'm town. Makes no difference what I do at this point.
I think it depends on what you think of Bugs reaction to my fake guilty:
It's okay, I don't think there is any way for you guys to win anymore, I already have a guilty on Bugs and I'm investigating Momrangal tonight, I think you should just surrender if that's a possibility.
If you take Bugs reaction as a confession then I suspect the game is either mechanically solved or very close to it.
Bruce: Terry. I've been thinking about something you once told me... and you were wrong. It's not Batman that makes you worthwhile; it's the other way around. Never tell yourself anything different.
Terry: ...Thanks.
