Newbie 656 Game Over!

[Fenchurch]

Mod, I think the last votecount was a little jumbled

. chapter 5 unvoted in post 232, then voted for ShadowLurker in post 278. Also, I changed my vote to lifeofpie, in post 235.
Sorry if this reads rather confusingly, and I think the votes changes were valid, but correct me if they're not.

[Fenchurch]

And, not wishing to confuse things further, but I'm going to

Unvote

As I'm not sure right now where I want my vote to lie.

[NabakovNabakov]

Vote Count as of Post 301

Drifter (3):

lifeofpie, Artem, thegeckoj

ShadowLurker (1):

Chapter 5

lifeofpie (1):

Drifter

Not voting (4)

thinktank, RandomGem, ShadowLurker, Fenchurch

My apologies, I must have missed a page somewhere. Still looking for a Drifter replacement.

[thegeckoj]

Regarding Drifter:

he first claims he is a townie, then claims he is a vanilla townie, then he claims he isnt going to talk about his role anymore because he wants to keep it 'ambiguous.' this is just newbie scum talk.

What makes you so sure that these things indicate newbie scum? I've posted a link to a game where two newb-town players claimed vanilla early on. Can you find a link to a game where an early vanilla claim was made by scum?

it isnt just the fact that claimed vanilla, althought i still find it odd, but rather he claimed town, then vanilla town then he tried to double back saying he wouldnt talk about his role anymore because he wanted it to remain 'ambiguous.'

[chapter 5]

Regarding Drifter:

he first claims he is a townie, then claims he is a vanilla townie, then he claims he isnt going to talk about his role anymore because he wants to keep it 'ambiguous.' this is just newbie scum talk.

What makes you so sure that these things indicate newbie scum? I've posted a link to a game where two newb-town players claimed vanilla early on. Can you find a link to a game where an early vanilla claim was made by scum?

it isnt just the fact that claimed vanilla, althought i still find it odd, but rather he claimed town, then vanilla town then he tried to double back saying he wouldnt talk about his role anymore because he wanted it to remain 'ambiguous.'

This is actually a really good point. I could absolutely see a newbie scum doing this: trying one tactic, finding out it's not working, and then backing into another to try and make us think that he may be a power role.

I think that you attempted to start a wagon on Fenchurch and when that wagon wasn't picking up steam, you unvoted and went to lurking.

I stopped the wagon because Fenchurch didn't continue to do scummy things, and therefore I consider my case against her a fluke more than anything else.

[Fenchurch]

No posts for 2 days

it isnt just the fact that claimed vanilla, althought i still find it odd, but rather he claimed town, then vanilla town then he tried to double back saying he wouldnt talk about his role anymore because he wanted it to remain 'ambiguous.'

This is actually a really good point. I could absolutely see a newbie scum doing this: trying one tactic, finding out it's not working, and then backing into another to try and make us think that he may be a power role.

It's the very similar argument to the one Artem made in posts 269 and 271.

I still don't really buy it in this situation. If Drifter had claimed vanilla, been told "that's not enough to stop us from lynching you" and

then

tried to soft-claim a power role, I could see it as a scum-tactic. But as it was, his claim was criticised because it helped scum to know who the power-roles aren't, and his doubling back came in response to that. If I was gonna accuse him of anything here, it would be that he was just following instructions to appear more town.

I've posted links to a game where newbie townies who weren't under pressure posted both soft-claims and vanilla claims. Artem has also provided a couple of pro-town soft-claims. Does anyone have evidence that early claiming is something scum are likely to do?

Also, I'm not sure whether to go down this route, but chapter 5 coming around to the argument against Drifter, is not long after

If Drifter flips scum, the most likely candidate for a buddy would be chapter 5

Since I'm not convinced on Drifter, I'm not drawing any conclusions here, but it might be worth noticing in future - although I realise that if Drifter flips scum, I'll probably look like a candidate myself.

Also, happy birthday RandomGem.

[Artem]

Mod: Can we get a replacement of Drifter?

I think the lack of participation from the primary suspect is stalling the game.

[lifeofpie]

Although I know it does not mean much, I'm just posting to say I can't post till Friday.


...

[ShadowLurker]

Fenchurch who would you like a lynch on?

[Fenchurch]

Fenchurch who would you like a lynch on?

I honestly don't know. That's why I'm currently not voting anyone. How about you? And why direct the question only at me?

I've been skimming through some more completed newbie games recently, especially ones where town won, to try and get some pointers. Depressingly, I'm finding it hard to spot scum-tells even when I know who they are, and also, that newbie town-wins are relatively rare.

It strikes me that it's actually quite easy for scum to fake being pro-town, and that all it takes to avoid a lynch is not let any evidence build up against yourself. It makes me more suspicious of some of the quieter players here, but I don't know what I can do about it.

A Drifter lynch is still appealing because so many players have given their opinions about him. If he flipped scum, that would pretty much clear some of the players who were on his wagon. But if he flipped town, I don't think that would clear or condemn anybody, and I can see that happening too.

[Fenchurch]

Amendments:

And why direct the question only at me?

Rather, why did you choose me to direct this question to?

newbie town-wins are relatively rare

I didn't mean to be a downer saying this, and it could be that my sample has been unlucky. At any rate, I'm not saying we can't break this mould

[ShadowLurker]

As part of the reason I believed we should pursue the lurkerish people (incl. Drifter) is because I've generally gotten a pro-town vibe from the town and I was seeing if you were also getting a mostly pro-town vibe.

[NabakovNabakov]

Mod: Can we get a replacement of Drifter?

I think the lack of participation from the primary suspect is stalling the game.

I'm still working on this. There's something a of a supply-and-demand issue at work here.

[Fenchurch]

As part of the reason I believed we should pursue the lurkerish people (incl. Drifter) is because I've generally gotten a pro-town vibe from the town and I was seeing if you were also getting a mostly pro-town vibe.

Oh right. Well then, I guess the answer is no. Or even if I get a pro-town vibe, I don't trust it.
Didn't you say the same thing when it was Sion who was missing? Who would you say are the lurkerish people at the moment, besides Drifter?

[Artem]

Who would you say are the lurkerish people at the moment, besides Drifter?

Half of the town?

[lifeofpie]

Lurkers: pretty much everyone except Fenchurch.

[Fenchurch]

As part of the reason I believed we should pursue the lurkerish people (incl. Drifter) is because I've generally gotten a pro-town vibe from the town and I was seeing if you were also getting a mostly pro-town vibe.

Oh right. Well then, I guess the answer is no.

Hmm, I could have been too quick to disagree here. I'm not sure if we're thinking on the same lines or not, since on a daily basis I flip-flop on any convictions I have about players that might be pro-town. But as for pursuing lurkers.. well, more on that in my next post perhaps. Need to gather my thoughts.

That aside, I have direction once more. I read through another completed game today (Newbie 667) and the scum voting patterns in their Day 1 reminded me of Sion's opportunistic-looking vote on the Drifter bandwagon. And when thegeckoj entered the game, he also placed a vote on Drifter, with reasons that I find weak or disagree with. On the one hand, this could simply be that we are two people reading a situation differently. On the other, it could be scum trying to fudge justification for their vote on the most popular target. Right now, I'm inclined to go for the latter explanation, and so:

vote: thegeckoj

[lifeofpie]

Sion

- He didn’t really post anything of value.

Thegeckoj

- “i find the whole claiming the vanilla townie thing pretty suspicious as well. especially when it was pointed out that he shouldnt have done that he tries to make it seem like he hasnt revealed anything. i think if he was really pro-town he would have stated that, not his specific role(which i believe to be a lie)”
- I agree with this. Therefore I can’t really agree with you, Fenchurch, that he was covering up a bandwagon vote.

- “but if he comes up scum i will have a pretty good idea who likely is his partner.”
- Um, pray tell, who?

- “i feel we have a good enough idea and i think our chances of him being scum are better than your 50/50, more like 80/20.”
- I never really like the idea of this kind of talk (posting chances, I mean). I feel we really can’t just do this as we don’t really have some kind of base.


All in all, I can't really get a tell off of this guy. The players combined have had few posts.

[Fenchurch]

Sion

- He didn’t really post anything of value.

Does this in itself not show something? In four pages, he made 5 posts. There was nothing stopping him from posting more, it was his choice. And you also disregard his actions during that time - in particular, adding a vote to the growing Drifter wagon. The timing and lack of explanation for that vote is very scummy to me, I've seen similarly executed scum votes in several other games, including the one I quoted earlier.

- “but if he comes up scum i will have a pretty good idea who likely is his partner.”
- Um, pray tell, who?

Since I have been defending Drifter, I assume thegeckoj means me, which is why I didn't push for an answer

- “i find the whole claiming the vanilla townie thing pretty suspicious as well. especially when it was pointed out that he shouldnt have done that he tries to make it seem like he hasnt revealed anything. i think if he was really pro-town he would have stated that, not his specific role(which i believe to be a lie)”
- I agree with this. Therefore I can’t really agree with you, Fenchurch, that he was covering up a bandwagon vote.

I have addressed this in post 305. Pro-town claims are very rare from what I've seen, as they are non-committal and essentially meaningless. Vanilla claims, on the other hand, are common from newbies. And I still don't see how him trying to go back on it is

more

suspicious, either, since I don't buy the "trying a different tactic" theory proposed by chapter 5, or the "role-fishing" one by Artem. (I'm not clear which of these theories you subscribe to).

The players combined have had few posts.

True, but the content of those posts has been enough for me to reach my conclusion.

[Fenchurch]

On a side note, lifeofpie, I know it takes a bit more time, but your analyses posts would be much easier to read if you used the quote tags

[lifeofpie]

I will try to organize better, but I doubt that that's going to happen.
On another vein, why aren't some people voting?

[RandomGem]

I will try to organize better, but I doubt that that's going to happen.
On another vein, why aren't some people voting?

Me because I'm mostly waiting for the replacement of Drifter, the main suspect of the town, to come...
I dunno. I refrain from posting 'cause I'd just make a null-post like this.

[Fenchurch]

Me because I'm mostly waiting for the replacement of Drifter, the main suspect of the town, to come...
I dunno. I refrain from posting 'cause I'd just make a null-post like this.

And when we get a replacement, what do you plan to do then?

Personally, I'd rather you made null-posts than none at all. Although I'd be really happy, if you did something that's not either of those things.

For instance, what are your thoughts on my points against thegeckoj? I remember you placed a pressure vote on him back when we were waiting for a replacement. Was that based on anything at all?

[Fenchurch]

Although I'd be really happy, if you did something that's not either of those things.

Oops, pressed post while still editing. Haha, if the above quote sounds a bit obtuse, what I meant was, I'd be happiest if you'd just post some content
Is it that hard?

[RandomGem]

Hmm, just realized... the case against Drifter is based on his claims and asking for deadlines, neither of which a replacement would be able to explain. And, as seen by thegeckoj and Fenchurch's opposing views, there are several ways to look at Drifter's actions. Only Drifter can explain, and he's who-knows-where by now.
Something else we can examine is the fact that he's disappeared. I personally think it means that he's given up trying to convince town that he's not scum.
I was willing to hammer him, and I'm willing to put him at L-1 now.

vote: Drifter

@Fenchurch: About thegeckoj... I agree with that point, and how Drifter turns up if he is lynched will definitely make me reevaulate my suspicions. My pressure vote on him was just an ineffectual vote to get him to say something, since he had replaced but hadn't posted for a little while.
I also agree that more content from everyone would be good.