Mini Normal 2191 | Endgame


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Post Post #29 (isolation #0) » Mon Jan 18, 2021 6:51 am

Post by Umlaut »

I don't really get the scumread(s) on nepenthe's intro, "look at me openly refusing to follow site meta" is not a very natural scum opening play.
In post 25, ben dover123 wrote:I wonder why this game is a 9p...
It's very interesting.
I can't tell if you're serious or not, what's interesting about a game being 9p?

VOTE: Zulfy
Every post he's made is pure scum
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #31 (isolation #1) » Mon Jan 18, 2021 6:59 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 13, nepenthe wrote:what’s your biggest strength as a mafia player? eschewing alignment, just focusing solely on self-perception.
I'm not sure I
have
strengths as a Mafia player, based on my last few games... but I suppose I'm pretty good at not outsmarting myself. As town I frequently find myself accused of having "surface-level" reads because I actually believe that things are quite often what they appear to be. These reads often turn out to be correct (at least better than pure random guessing) and I'm trying to get better at not letting clever people talk me out of them.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #32 (isolation #2) » Mon Jan 18, 2021 7:01 am

Post by Umlaut »

(Tbf I also find myself accused of surface-level reads as scum, it's just harder for me to feel indignant about it in that case :P )
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #34 (isolation #3) » Mon Jan 18, 2021 7:04 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 30, DkKoba wrote:He's apologetic abt it is where im having issue where there's a lot of self consciousness involved IMO
I see what you're saying but I think the improbability of making any kind of attention-drawing play
at all
overwhelms the part where if they
did
decide to make a scene as scum they'd be self-conscious about it.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #102 (isolation #4) » Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:37 pm

Post by Umlaut »

In post 57, lenora wrote:
In post 17, DkKoba wrote:i think ur vibes are town so far chumbo :3
what is "town vibes" to you? i'm not sure how you came to this conclusion so quickly

(also i just read over the rules and saw only 1 bah post is allowed so i'm sorry for my 2 opening posts without content, i just tried to send something that didn't go through so i wasn't sure if it was working)
This is straining my credulity a bit.

lenora, where/how did you form your impression of what "bah post" means?
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #104 (isolation #5) » Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:53 pm

Post by Umlaut »

To answer your question, a 'bah' post is a single post someone may be permitted just after they die, just to say "bah, go town" or something. "Free of game related content" means it can't be used to try and make a case or reiterate accusations or otherwise try to influence the outcome of the game.

I get the impression you've made several
I'm just a newb and I don't understand things
remarks back to back and I'm concerned that you're deliberately playing up that angle. I saw town get burned by that in a game not too long ago.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #112 (isolation #6) » Mon Jan 18, 2021 3:28 pm

Post by Umlaut »

In post 105, ben dover123 wrote:
In post 104, Umlaut wrote: I get the impression you've made several
I'm just a newb and I don't understand things
remarks back to back and I'm concerned that you're deliberately playing up that angle. I saw town get burned by that in a game not too long ago.
Such has happened before? I'd definitely like to see the game.

I'm not sure if I want to derpclear lenora now that I know that she plays on ms. Derpclears are most effective on a genuine newbie, but not very good on someone who has played the game a couple times before.
Micro 956 is the game I was thinking of, where CreativeMod1 pulled this off to great effect (which is pretty impressive given the 2018 join date, but he's mostly active in Mish-Mash and I think it was only his second game of actual Mafia, with his first years ago). He even explicitly said he did this in after the game had ended. I called him on this and ended up getting eliminated for it while he lived on to win the game.
In post 108, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:Also dont know if Umlaut is faking outrage over the newbie posts. I been burnt by newbscum before but I also got railroaded as a new player by scum because I was an easy lynch. I think Umlaut is a player that's worth keeping my eyes on
Outrage is a pretty strong word for what I've expressed here. Does what I'm doing look like railroading to you?
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #122 (isolation #7) » Tue Jan 19, 2021 2:57 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 113, lenora wrote:what posts of mine made you feel that way?
- confused about how to post
- asking where to see the setup
- misunderstanding "bah post"
- how many mafia?

When I lay it out like that it's not really as much as I thought, but it was enough to make me take notice.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #131 (isolation #8) » Tue Jan 19, 2021 11:40 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 118, Zulfy wrote:Chumbo's in the envelope
If you think Chumbo's scum why are you voting Fuzzy? Do you think Fuzzy's scum too?
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #153 (isolation #9) » Wed Jan 20, 2021 11:44 am

Post by Umlaut »

Town pings on Maduisha.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #165 (isolation #10) » Wed Jan 20, 2021 1:17 pm

Post by Umlaut »

Well that settles it, clidd is always town.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #189 (isolation #11) » Wed Jan 20, 2021 4:18 pm

Post by Umlaut »

In post 172, DkKoba wrote:clidd ur using too big words and my brain hurts
Clidd always does that, you learn to ignore it. (My working theory is that people whose L1 is a Romance language will prefer English words that look "familiar" to them, which are usually fancy Latin-derived words rather than common Germanic ones.)

Anyway, I like what I'm seeing of clidd's reads. Except, for some reason, his townread on me? He's denying we have any meta to speak of even though we had a few... er, memorable games together, and I don't really understand how being able to cite a recent game as evidence for "broadcasting I'm-just-a-newb can be a scumtell" is in any way indicative of my alignment.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #209 (isolation #12) » Wed Jan 20, 2021 6:28 pm

Post by Umlaut »

@clidd: Yeah, that was a weird one. I don't blame you for the other game though (the one where you were Traffic Analyst), you
almost
had a mechanical guilty on me if the mechanics hadn't been so weird.

I'm town
Ben's town
Clidd's town
Maduisha and Nepenthe are probably town

Eliminate everyone else?
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #223 (isolation #13) » Thu Jan 21, 2021 4:11 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 217, Zulfy wrote:Umlaut vote fuzzy
You didn't say please!
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #246 (isolation #14) » Fri Jan 22, 2021 4:47 am

Post by Umlaut »

@mod Your rules post says Day 1 is 10 IRL days but your deadline timer in your last VC seems to be based on 7 IRL days


I didn't realize it had been so long since nepenthe was posting, I was still going by my early impression of them. Okay, so make that a
very weak
town lean.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #248 (isolation #15) » Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:49 am

Post by Umlaut »

Fuzzy, please don't threaten to replace out. Do it or don't, but don't say anything about it in thread, per site rules.

As I recall Fuzzy was serious limbait in the other game we sort-of played together, Mini 2014, somehow managing to get himself eliminated on Day 1 after claiming cop in an open setup without a counterclaim. (I say "sort of" because I replaced in on Day 2, so I read the earlier posts but I wasn't really there for them and we never interacted.) Might need to go look at their posting in that game again and see if whatever got them scumread is similar to this game.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #292 (isolation #16) » Sat Jan 23, 2021 6:53 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 288, Cabd wrote:Here's what gut-pinged me in the Umlaut ISO.... it's giving me feelings of "annoyed that the pool is shrinking" from him. (BORKTELL!!!!) Feels like there's pushback on anything that could at all softclear a player on day one. For example, a player having great posts then not posting for a bit doesn't change the contents of those initial posts?
Wow this read is terrible. I literally made a post proposing a townbloc of 3-5 which is "shrinking the pool" if ever there was such a thing, and the example you cite with Nepenthe and my continuing to say I townread them is literally the opposite of pushing back on softclearing a player. Why are you just making things up?
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #293 (isolation #17) » Sat Jan 23, 2021 6:54 am

Post by Umlaut »

I rarely go all "how DARE you scumread me" the way some people do but this just fails the most cursory inspection
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #297 (isolation #18) » Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:00 am

Post by Umlaut »

Hmm, it's early still to try and call it like this but maybe it's just Cabd-Fuzzy? DkKoba had nothing to say about Fuzzy or his wagon despite it being the closest thing to a consensus scumread in the game, and Fuzzy's own read on DkKoba is... well.
In post 252, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:
Dakoba
- the first few post of Koba were blah. 150 is okay I guess. I would like to hear what exactly the approach Zufy took that gave Koba the scum read. I like the pressure she is putting on Madisha here . I read Koba other posts and honestly, there was nothing there. I dont what to make out of her drop in quality
Pretty fence-sitty and "I don't know what to think" and can easily fit a scum agenda of not wanting to solidify a read one way or the other on one's buddy.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #298 (isolation #19) » Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:04 am

Post by Umlaut »

VOTE: Cabd

Can move this to Fuzzy if wanted, I think he's at L-2 right now but I can't be arsed to go back and check.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #319 (isolation #20) » Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:01 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 1, Sirius9121 wrote:
important bit
  • Day: Day 1: 10 days, Day 2+: 7 days, Night: 48 hours.
Day 1 started on January 17 so it should end on January 27.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #320 (isolation #21) » Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:03 am

Post by Umlaut »

It would be nice if the mod could confirm this by posting a second vote count, though.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #338 (isolation #22) » Sun Jan 24, 2021 1:15 pm

Post by Umlaut »

In post 325, Cabd wrote:
In post 310, clidd wrote:start from the conclusion "Umlaut is scum"
You're not that far off, regarding starting points. Umlaut is a gutping, and then I went back through the ISO to try and quantify what exactly was setting off the subtle alarm bells, in the hopes of feeling out other's reactions to the same points once highlighted and given daylight.

I don't have a particular rock-townread that i can use to bounce thoughts off of, so "at large to the ether" is the next best thing.
Honestly this leaning-in response isn't what I usually expect from Mafia so this is pretty town. Hmm.

It's still an awful read on me but sometimes people just have those.

VOTE: Fuzzy
That's L-1 I believe.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #348 (isolation #23) » Sun Jan 24, 2021 1:30 pm

Post by Umlaut »

In post 342, ben dover123 wrote:
In post 338, Umlaut wrote: Honestly this leaning-in response isn't what I usually expect from Mafia so this is pretty town. Hmm.
wait what is this logic
Clidd accused Cabd of "starting with the assumption Umlaut is scum" and Cabd basically said "yes, that is in fact exactly what I did" where I think if he knew his case was a bunch of hooey his natural impulse would be to deny that.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #388 (isolation #24) » Sun Jan 24, 2021 7:47 pm

Post by Umlaut »

Let's make your dream come true.

VOTE: Zulfy

I provisionally accept Fuzzy's claim unless someone wants to cc.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #394 (isolation #25) » Mon Jan 25, 2021 5:00 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 393, Cabd wrote:Just came off of another Isis reviewed game where roles were explicitly designed to fuck with norms.

Which means here we DON'T want anyone counterclaiming, it is possible that there are overlapping roles, given how the NPOM game went down.
@Cabd, link pls?

This "no one counterclaim" is doing nothing to lower my suspicions of a possible Cabd-Fuzzy team :/ (depending on whether Fuzzy's claim turns out more-or-less confirmed in the long run)
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #432 (isolation #26) » Mon Jan 25, 2021 5:31 pm

Post by Umlaut »

I feel like I share the guilt for not doing more to progress the game, but I really haven't had anything I wanted to say. I guess I should try and force something though, it's been a while since I did anything useful (tho I still hope voting Zulfy will turn out to have been useful)
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #433 (isolation #27) » Mon Jan 25, 2021 5:38 pm

Post by Umlaut »

It's a pretty dry game. I think making a town pool and eliminating outside it and hoping for the best is really all we can do.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #435 (isolation #28) » Mon Jan 25, 2021 5:46 pm

Post by Umlaut »

Putting my cards on the table:
  • Never voting clidd or ben
  • Not voting Fuzzy today
  • Not really interested in Maduisha
  • Could go along with Nepenthe if that's where we end up but it's not what I would prefer
  • That leaves Lenora, Cabd, and Zulfy; I'm pretty happy with my Zulfy vote still
Have to agree I basically haven't thought at all about Lenora since early in the day. I freely admit my "playing the newb card" suspicions were pretty weak and were more in the spirit of early game anything-is-better-than-random read process, but I really haven't formed any impression one way or the other since then.
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Post Post #451 (isolation #29) » Tue Jan 26, 2021 5:15 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 449, Maduisha wrote:VOTE: Nepenthe

I think I'm actually going to place this here for pressure, I really want you to elaborate on your thoughts. And I believe a little back and forth could help us understand each other, if you are willing to engage with me here.
It's a bit late in the day to vote someone "for pressure," isn't it? Especially when you say that's what it's for. I don't believe I would feel any pressure at all from a vote like that.
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Post Post #476 (isolation #30) » Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:47 am

Post by Umlaut »

Without saying exactly what it is, Cabd, how 'good' would you say your investigative ability is? Is it capable of clearing someone outright? Does it have results that are obviously and unambiguously correlated with alignment?
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Post Post #480 (isolation #31) » Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:51 am

Post by Umlaut »

I'm imagining a setup with possibly a lot of weak roles where a 2-shot neap wouldn't be very strong at all because most of the time the result would just be not-a-VT and wouldn't actually mean much.

On another note, if the NRG is explicitly trying to make setups that can't be "puzzled out" so we just have to find Mafia by day play, then saying "hmm, let's take that into account and use it as a meta-hint for puzzling out the setup" is likely to fail
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Post Post #485 (isolation #32) » Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:54 am

Post by Umlaut »

Will also say people tend to way underestimate how much power town is going to have in a typical normal; my usual experience is going into review with a setup I think is probably too townsided and going through a few iterations of making the town even stronger before it's approved.
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Post Post #490 (isolation #33) » Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:07 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 407, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:I think cc are good. The only CC that should never happen is someone with investigational roles or protective roles. For example cops, doctors bodyguard. The exception being vanilla cop, neo cops, or such role. Roles where there another more powerful /useful variant likely to be in play, For example, there is likely an alignment cop in play so my death would be minimalized.
I was about to quote this to ask why scum!Fuzzy would explicitly invite counterclaims when Cabd was saying we probably shouldn't (because setup spec was likely not to work properly) but come to think of it this is a really weird thing to say. Aside from the whole thing being a bit confusing (what exactly is he saying would or would not be a valid counterclaim?) why should Fuzzy be expecting a counterclaim at all, when anyone who makes a serious cc ought to be scum from his perspective?
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Post Post #491 (isolation #34) » Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:09 am

Post by Umlaut »

What I mean is, it reads as if Fuzzy is talking to a hypothetical town player who might actually be able to CC him, whereas town!Fuzzy ought to believe no such player exists
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Post Post #496 (isolation #35) » Tue Jan 26, 2021 7:50 am

Post by Umlaut »

We have 18 hours left. Show of hands, who is / is not willing to eliminate Fuzzy in light of this new info?

I'm on the fence, leaning toward not on the off-chance some good comes from his role if he is town, but won't stand in the way of it.
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Post Post #526 (isolation #36) » Tue Jan 26, 2021 3:12 pm

Post by Umlaut »

In post 523, TheFuzzylogic99 wrote:Maybe I am wrong but Cabd's claim seems like a bluff or a gambit atp . if that is true I dont know if that makes him town or scum. I would lean town as it would be a wierd gambit /bluff coming town. His action does not seem to match up with what one would expect from a player with that role. I guess he could be a JOAT but I have my doubts atm.
This is just, uh...

You think Cabd's claim is fabricated to get you, a claimed PR, eliminated, and your first thought is that must make him town? Who thinks like this?

VOTE: Fuzzy

If it's too late to change course then so be it but at the very least I don't want anyone hammering until this post of Fuzzy's has been absorbed by the town, because it is setting my scumdar off like crazy.
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Post Post #538 (isolation #37) » Tue Jan 26, 2021 6:26 pm

Post by Umlaut »

I'll be around just before deadline.
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Post Post #545 (isolation #38) » Wed Jan 27, 2021 1:47 am

Post by Umlaut »

Good morning

VOTE: Zulfy

Good night
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Post Post #553 (isolation #39) » Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:42 pm

Post by Umlaut »

I find it hard to believe the Mafia would have forgone both Cabd and Fuzzy, and instead shot someone else altogether, if both of those two were town.
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Post Post #568 (isolation #40) » Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:01 pm

Post by Umlaut »

Cabd, why wouldn't you just investigate Fuzzy? (I'm assuming you didn't if you don't disagree with my )
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’ and those who
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Post Post #580 (isolation #41) » Sat Jan 30, 2021 4:57 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 574, Maduisha wrote:So uh, if I understood correctly, Fuzzy can tell us whether Max is vanilla or not (with town PR and mafia showing as "not vanilla" regardless of alignment), while Cabd has an innocent result at hand. I'd say Cabd revealing who he got an innocent on is the best move here, while Fuzzy's result I would say is more tricky because we'd be narrowing the setup for scum if he is not faking it.
Not quite. Fuzzy's (purportedly) a Neapolitan, so he gets a result of "Vanilla Townie" or "not Vanilla Townie." Your followup in makes more sense given that you mistakenly thought Fuzzy could have possibly expected a vanilla result on Cabd, and I don't actually have a problem with voting Fuzzy in itself, but I don't think that's a good reason.

I kind of think this mistake makes you more town but then I already thought you were at least >rand town.
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’ and those who
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Post Post #582 (isolation #42) » Sat Jan 30, 2021 5:03 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 579, Cabd wrote:I'm honestly kicking myself in hindsight for not checking umlaut because it prolly would have been a guilty.
If you think scum!me ever kills Ben last night I need to know what drugs you're taking and where I can get some.
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Post Post #587 (isolation #43) » Sat Jan 30, 2021 5:38 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 584, Cabd wrote:"If you think scum me would do XYZ you're ABC" is like a meme now, my dude.
Image
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Post Post #636 (isolation #44) » Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:34 pm

Post by Umlaut »

This is not a prodge because I'm not due for a prod. Probably not going to engage in this game again til tomorrow evening. I'm surprised Clidd put me first in claim order given he has me as a townread, but I'll do it if that's what we've all decided we're doing.

Did Fuzzy give his result before Maxwell claimed? If not that was a missed opportunity, there's a chance Fuzzy would have claimed he was VT.
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Post Post #648 (isolation #45) » Sun Jan 31, 2021 8:04 am

Post by Umlaut »

My take on the game is really dependent on the role reveals so here's my claim, just to keep things moving: I'm a 1-shot Neighborizer, no other abilities. Clidd can confirm he was neighborized.

I don't want to tip my hand as to how I'll be interpreting future claims until they're all out.
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Post Post #661 (isolation #46) » Sun Jan 31, 2021 3:59 pm

Post by Umlaut »

Maxwell is making really good points here. I was coming into today leaning toward thinking Fuzzy was scum between the him and Cabd (and I think it's pretty clear there is scum between the two) but I'm leaning in the other direction now.

Also, naming clidd as an investigation choice has obvious scum motivation in that I think pretty much everyone agreed as of yesterday agreed clidd was town, so scum!Cabd wouldn't be telling us anything we don't already know. That's a bit backwards as reasoning (I should be looking for things town
wouldn't
do, not things scum
would
do) but I noticed it so I may as well point it out.

I still want to wait for Nep's claim here, so as to better be able to think about what kind of overall town power level makes sense.
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Post Post #670 (isolation #47) » Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:39 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 664, Maduisha wrote:abd - Cop.
Maxwell - Doctor.
Umlaut - Friendly neighbour.
Fuzzy - Neopolitan cop.
Friendly Neighbor is not the same thing as Neighborizer. I didn't reveal to clidd that I'm town, I just made him my Neighbor. 1-Shot Neighborizer is in my opinion barely a PR at all (I never really figured out what I'm supposed to do with a neighborhood).
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Post Post #672 (isolation #48) » Mon Feb 01, 2021 7:19 am

Post by Umlaut »

Where I am now:
  • Still pretty confident clidd is town
  • Also pretty confident Maduisha and Maxwell are town
  • Probably shouldn't be more than 50% confident I'm right about all three of those
  • If I am, that leaves {Cabd, Fuzzy, Nep-slot}
  • I don't see a universe where both Cabd and Fuzzy are scum
  • So I guess (if we believe all of the above) Nep-slot has to be scum?
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’ and those who
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Post Post #684 (isolation #49) » Mon Feb 01, 2021 3:13 pm

Post by Umlaut »

Cabd, I think you just convinced me that you're scum.

There is no way the setup has a cop
and
a doctor
and
scum didn't block or kill you last night. I'd sooner believe a second investigative than I would that.

VOTE: Cabd
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and the other kind,
’ and those who
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say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #689 (isolation #50) » Mon Feb 01, 2021 3:28 pm

Post by Umlaut »

In post 686, Cabd wrote:Not least of which is that the "doctor's" target wasn't either of the claims on the board.
...that's a good point.

UNVOTE: Cabd

Let's hear the rest of it.
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Post Post #701 (isolation #51) » Mon Feb 01, 2021 4:35 pm

Post by Umlaut »

So, that's... an extension of two hours and 56 minutes?

Never change, Sirius.
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’ and those who
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Post Post #721 (isolation #52) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 7:15 am

Post by Umlaut »

Max, I'll admit I haven't read very carefully, so maybe you've already answered this. Why
did
you protect clidd, as opposed to one of the two alleged investigators? It's a surprising choice. About equally as surprising as Cabd investigating clidd instead of Fuzzy.
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’ and those who
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Post Post #755 (isolation #53) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:35 pm

Post by Umlaut »

I'm having trouble thinking about this game today.

VOTE: Sam

Can we just do this today and hold off on the PRs? If we assume exactly one of {Cabd, Fuzzy, maxwell} is scum and one of {me, clidd, Maduisha, samantha} is scum (and I do assume that), then honestly I'm much more confident about who is the scum in the latter group.
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’ and those who
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Post Post #757 (isolation #54) » Tue Feb 02, 2021 5:47 pm

Post by Umlaut »

Because my role is close to 0 utility and not part of the "not all these roles can exist" mechanical solving process we have going.
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Post Post #772 (isolation #55) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 7:14 am

Post by Umlaut »

What's VC?
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Post Post #773 (isolation #56) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 7:19 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 768, maxwell wrote:I think voting in VTs is just punting on a hard decision because you're afraid of getting it wrong, on a day where we're allowed to get it wrong. Ultimately, in a sam-town world, where does that leave us? Cabd claims a guilty tomorrow and you're left trying to sort who is fakeclaiming PR, still. Same decision we're facing down today. At that point do people finally consider maduisha scum? I sort of doubt it. Meanwhile if we eliminate one of us today, we learn that person is town, their read on their counterpart is good, their partner has tied themselves to them enough this day phase that they can be caught.
Well, I kind of agree that it's putting off a hard decision, but it's putting it off until we have more information, not just putting it off for the sake of not having to think about it. ideally tonight either Mafia helps us choose by killing a PR or we get another actual PR result (though we do have to decide which result is actual). By eliminating a VT we accomplish this much even if we get it wrong.

Speaking for myself I will absolutely go for Maduisha scum if Sam is known to be town. Pretty sure clidd will as well. Can't speak for anyone else but it's not the insurmountable hill you're making it out to be here.
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’ and those who
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Post Post #792 (isolation #57) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 5:41 pm

Post by Umlaut »

I don't understand why you're trusting me with a mech plan when you're closer to conftown than I am (the only way you're scum is if the team is exactly you and Cabd, and that doesn't make a whole lot of sense), but okay...

Assuming Fuzzy is town, he targets within the VT claims, obviously. Probably he should target Maduisha if we're launching Sam today.

Assuming Cabd is town, he targets one of the other two strong PR claims: that is, Fuzzy or Max. It doesn't matter which, a green check on one is as good as a red check on the other. In fact it's probably best that he (privately) flip a coin to minimize predictability, in case scum have something weird like a rolestopper.

Assuming maxwell is town, he protects Cabd tonight. This is obviously correct if we succeed in launching scum today, and if not then Cabd is still the one most likely to give us a definite result.
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Post Post #801 (isolation #58) » Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:31 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 799, maxwell wrote:
In post 792, Umlaut wrote:I don't understand why you're trusting me with a mech plan when you're closer to conftown than I am (the only way you're scum is if the team is exactly you and Cabd, and that doesn't make a whole lot of sense), but okay...

Assuming Fuzzy is town, he targets within the VT claims, obviously. Probably he should target Maduisha if we're launching Sam today.

Assuming Cabd is town, he targets one of the other two strong PR claims: that is, Fuzzy or Max. It doesn't matter which, a green check on one is as good as a red check on the other. In fact it's probably best that he (privately) flip a coin to minimize predictability, in case scum have something weird like a rolestopper.

Assuming maxwell is town, he protects Cabd tonight. This is obviously correct if we succeed in launching scum today, and if not then Cabd is still the one most likely to give us a definite result.
Cabd checking in a PR claim seems un-optimal, one of me/fuzzy highly likely gets shot in this plan and then the report probably isn't all that informative because the remainng living player is a presumed counterclaim, would think him checking in umlaut/mauisha/samantha (if we mis-eliminate today) is a better choice because it would force a team
Hard disagree. If the PRs are all checking in the vanillas then scum's best plan is to keep all PRs alive and aim for town to eliminate the wrong one. If all Cabd targeting in the PRs does is force scum to kill one of them then that is already a useful service.
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Post Post #822 (isolation #59) » Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:24 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 818, maxwell wrote:To clarify my feelings on the investigation target for Cabd: it's more or less assumed that one of me or fuzzy is likely a counter claim to Cabd because otherwise the setup would be imbalanced, so him checking one of us doesn't change much, o the assumption we are incorrect today. Investigating outside PRs narrows down possible teams and makes people consider different worlds. If there's disagreement, fine, but I want to make my voice heard on that one point.
In case it's not clear: Say Cabd investigates you and says you're town.
  • If Cabd is town, then you are town.
  • If Cabd is scum, then you are
    still
    town (because I don't believe both scum are in the PR claims).
Similarly, if he says you are scum, that means Fuzzy is town regardless of whether Cabd is or not.
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Post Post #824 (isolation #60) » Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:27 am

Post by Umlaut »

Sam is at L-1 now, by the way.

No protest here.
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Post Post #841 (isolation #61) » Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:41 am

Post by Umlaut »

Since I didn't say this explicitly: if we're eliminating Maduisha, Fuzzy should be checking Sam. I think that's actually the only useful target since clidd was neighborized, though I'm not 100% sure how that works.

@mod: how would a player who started as VT but later got neighborized investigate to a Neapolitan?


What is VC now? At this point I agree with clidd, just eliminate one of the two.

pedit
That's actually a good point about Nep.
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Post Post #842 (isolation #62) » Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:42 am

Post by Umlaut »

UNVOTE: Sam

Willing to vote Maduisha at this point but I'd like to get the answer to that question.
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Post Post #844 (isolation #63) » Thu Feb 04, 2021 2:12 pm

Post by Umlaut »

Already did.
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Post Post #847 (isolation #64) » Thu Feb 04, 2021 3:32 pm

Post by Umlaut »

In post 845, Cabd wrote:Why would you check clidd anyways given I have a clear? Unless you think the team is exactly Cabd clidd.
I mean, as clidd said it's not out of the realm of possibility, but I was originally going to just write
check Sam because I'm confident enough clidd is town
and only realized as I was writing it that clidd might not even be meaningfully checkable by a neap.
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Post Post #852 (isolation #65) » Thu Feb 04, 2021 5:16 pm

Post by Umlaut »

In post 850, Sirius9121 wrote:
In post 841, Umlaut wrote:
@mod: how would a player who started as VT but later got neighborized investigate to a Neapolitan?
Vanilla.
Oh.

Well, I still think clidd is a bad investigation choice, but that's good to know.

Should I hammer?
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Post Post #891 (isolation #66) » Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:49 am

Post by Umlaut »

As far as narrowing down the PR pool is concerned, I have a reason for thinking Fuzzy is telling the truth about his role (so probably town, though a scum Neapolitan is not completely unheard of) but it's pretty angleshooty and I don't know if I should say it.
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Post Post #893 (isolation #67) » Fri Feb 05, 2021 8:56 am

Post by Umlaut »

I think it was? He explained why he thinks that there's no doctor in the game and therefore Max is scum. That's what he said he was working up to.
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Post Post #895 (isolation #68) » Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:00 am

Post by Umlaut »

Something about the way Maxwell is actively stalling and then derailing the Maduisha wagon he said he wanted, just as he finally gets it, is making me want it more.

VOTE: Maduisha

Back to L-1 you go. Someone hammer this while we still can.
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Post Post #897 (isolation #69) » Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:11 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 896, Maduisha wrote:Uh... but it makes no sense for Maxwell to both claim doctor and try to bus when he's already suspected for the claim...
Spending the whole day saying you suspect a buddy when they are absolutely not anywhere near the chopping block, and then suddenly flipping that read around once it turns out they might actually get chopped, is not really busing though.
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Post Post #955 (isolation #70) » Sun Feb 07, 2021 6:14 pm

Post by Umlaut »

So... there's no way both Fuzzy and Maxwell are town, right?

I think we just eliminate them both and autowin.
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Post Post #956 (isolation #71) » Sun Feb 07, 2021 6:15 pm

Post by Umlaut »

Funny thing is we agreed in the neighborhood last night that scum was probably Cabd
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Post Post #962 (isolation #72) » Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:30 am

Post by Umlaut »

Ffs does anyone just give their role straight anymore

Inb4 Fuzzy is actually a 3-shot Loyal Complex Follower or something
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Post Post #963 (isolation #73) » Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:34 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 961, maxwell wrote:Umlaut: Why'd you reverse your stance on Maduisha, exactly?
If you mean why did I vote them, I was originally of the opinion that Sam was a better elimination out of the two but I didn't really have a strong read on either one of them. I was always willing to vote Maduisha if it came down to it. The reason I made the vote when I did was because I saw a push to change wagons between those two for like the zillionth time for trivial reasons and I didn't like it.
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Post Post #965 (isolation #74) » Mon Feb 08, 2021 4:59 am

Post by Umlaut »

So, uh...

you didn't check Sam, then?
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’ and those who
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Post Post #966 (isolation #75) » Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:01 am

Post by Umlaut »

Oh, you said non-consecutive
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Post Post #967 (isolation #76) » Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:02 am

Post by Umlaut »

Well, actually you said non-consectaive but whatever.

So literally I'm the only person who just put all my cards on the table as far as my role, except I guess the VTs
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Post Post #973 (isolation #77) » Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:31 am

Post by Umlaut »

@maxwell: You've got me there, I guess I did think Maduisha was town earlier in the game though I can't recall what the reasons were besides just tone.

I do kind of recall waffling mentally over the wording that I was "pretty confident" you and Maduisha were town, and ultimately deciding that straightforward messaging was more important than capturing my exact mental state. And as far as it was kind of the same thing, I thought it was better to just stick with one target than say something like "in this first group any of the three could be scum but in the latter I think clidd has to be town so only two out of the four could be scum so my subjective odds of voting scum are better" which is more accurate but less likely to get anyone to actually vote.
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Post Post #975 (isolation #78) » Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:32 am

Post by Umlaut »

It occurs to me that we know Fuzzy really does have a PR, whether town or scum, unless he pulled off the luckiest gambit ever by identifying Maxwell as not-PR.

So if Fuzzy is scum the setup is
  • 4x Vanilla Townie
  • 1x Town 2-Shot Cop
  • 1x Town Simple Doctor
  • 1x Town 1-Shot Neighborizer
  • 1x Mafia Multitasking Night 2 Roleblocker
  • 1x Mafia Investigative PR (maybe an actual Neapolitan, why not?)
That setup is... hunh. Not a whole lot of town power, really. For comparison, I think an ungated cop as the only PR is considered relatively balanced and this seems more scumsided than that; the cop is weaker, the scum have some counterplay against it, the neighborizer isn't really helpful and the doctor is
sort of
helpful but I don't think enough to make up for the otherwise weak town. Am I missing something here?
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and the other kind,
’ and those who
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say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #976 (isolation #79) » Mon Feb 08, 2021 11:33 am

Post by Umlaut »

In post 975, Umlaut wrote:identifying Maxwell as not-PR
as not-VT, rather.
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’ and those who
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Post Post #977 (isolation #80) » Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:13 pm

Post by Umlaut »

No one has anything to say about this, then?
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’ and those who
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Post Post #978 (isolation #81) » Mon Feb 08, 2021 7:04 pm

Post by Umlaut »

Just noticed the OP still says
In post 0, Sirius9121 wrote:
The game is in
Pregame
.
and felt the need to quote it for posterity
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’ and those who
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Post Post #980 (isolation #82) » Mon Feb 08, 2021 7:54 pm

Post by Umlaut »

That's a point I didn't think of. Rolecop!Fuzzy
would
know that. So I suppose Cabd dying fits with either possibility... though that wasn't really a thing I was questioning? I was just saying that setup itself sounded scumsided.

Did you say who you protected last night, by the way?
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’ and those who
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Post Post #981 (isolation #83) » Mon Feb 08, 2021 7:58 pm

Post by Umlaut »

I feel like both Maxwell's and Fuzzy's new role modifications are too convenient. Fuzzy's allows him to avoid giving a new result until lylo (when he' would presumably red-check Sam or something), and Maxwell's allows him to explain why he didn't stop the Cabd kill.

If the one of you who is town had just
told the whole story
about your role, I would pretty much auto-vote the other today when they tried to change it up. That's what you get for being coy.
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’ and those who
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say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #992 (isolation #84) » Tue Feb 09, 2021 4:34 am

Post by Umlaut »

Hmm. If Maxwell flat out said he refuses to protect Cabd then he wouldn't need to also modify his claim today.

What do you actually conclude from his saying that, Fuzzy?
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’ and those who
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Post Post #1001 (isolation #85) » Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:56 am

Post by Umlaut »

Yeah, I had a whole post prepared in the 'hood arguing it's probably Maxwell who's the scum here because he had more scum motive to suddenly gate his claim like this, but I don't think I agree with that any more. It has the obvious scum motive of putting off his result until lylo, where if he wins the 1v1 he wins the game; honestly it seems like the only real conceivable path to victory for scum!Fuzzy. And Maxwell's claim has some
town
motive too in that he might have hoped the threat of protecting Fuzzy would keep him alive (given he thought Fuzzy was town).

Also Fuzzy just seems to be obviously melting down in the thread right now, and none of his accusations make any sense.

I'm a little worried that I'm being swayed by Maxwell just because he's better with words than Fuzzy is, but if that's the case it won't win him the game so I guess it's okay.

VOTE: Fuzzy

That's L-1. If someone wants to hammer I won't really argue, as long as we all agree that barring some massive unforeseen cataclysm we're voting Maxwell tomorrow.
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and the other kind,
’ and those who
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Post Post #1006 (isolation #86) » Tue Feb 09, 2021 10:04 am

Post by Umlaut »

You'll see faster days if you hang around long enough.

I modded a game with a page 1 hammer less than 6 hours after the day started, though there were mechanical reasons it made sense (scum had to lose a player anyway so they may as well quickhammer).
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Post Post #1020 (isolation #87) » Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:11 pm

Post by Umlaut »

It is unless Fuzzy is trolling, but I think it's best to wait for Sirius' word before the dead start rising.
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and the other kind,
’ and those who
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say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Post Post #1041 (isolation #88) » Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:04 pm

Post by Umlaut »

In post 1038, DkKoba wrote:umlaut, any reason u didnt neighborize cabd btw?
I wanted to neighborize someone who I had high confidence was town, and Cabd wasn't that as of Night 1 (or as of Night 2, for that matter).
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs
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Umlaut
Umlaut
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Umlaut
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Post Post #1045 (isolation #89) » Fri Feb 12, 2021 7:03 pm

Post by Umlaut »

Any chance of the PTs being released, Sirius?
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
and the other kind,
’ and those who
don’t
say. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs

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