Is this just based on general probabilities, or does this conclusion also come from the way it formed?
What do you mean? I don't think anything that Italiano has said so far is rather earth shattering.
In post 48, ItalianoVD wrote:The thought of an all town wagon did cross my mind, but would consensus town really be that comfortable bringing any wagon that close to elimination within the first two pages?
Okay, so you think there is scum based on the way the wagon formed. My response to this is that people put a lot less weight to votes very early and will wagon people up in an attempt to see where they go. Anyone who actually lolhammers tends to get scrutinized the following day like what happened to you in Mini Normal 2193 after your day 1 hammer. Thus, it's by no means impossible that an all town formed on MURDERCAT. On the other hand, probability theory suggests that this is unlikely; there's roughly an 80% chance that at least one scum is on the wagon.
I do find it a little strange you are just now getting around to responding to these posts. It'd be more understandable if the thread was bigger, but the thread is currently a very manageable size.
(Which player is this referring to?)
I do agree with Infinity's observation, but this is somewhat understandable.
Why is it's closeness to elimination such a concern? This reads to me as scum who are glad they aren't going to be scrutinized because they weren't on the wagon. I'll be sure to keep an eye on you.
In post 80, Titus wrote:his perspective should be, namely that scum deliberately wagoned him to claim
Why should this be MURDERCAT's perspective? Also, who seriously claims from a more or less RVS wagon?
Explain.
(In reference to Flea's
69 How exactly? I came to the opposite conclusion.
This is really surface level analysis.
In the beginning...
I prefer the abbreviation "beginning".
Please don't abbreviate my username to INB.