Mini 630: Council of Eville: Game Ovah!

[Goatrevolt]

And why wasn't Goat NKed?

Tons of possibilities to explain this.

Also, I feel that if there is a doctor or other role that prevented a kill that first night, they should claim and also claim the player they saved as it would confirm 2 players as pro-town and narrow down our search by a lot. What's the consensus on this?

Bad idea.

As someone said before ( I think it was you?) it's possible vig did not killing night one. We might not have a docter.
And if we have a doctor, it's possible the doctor protected the vig kill, and so we would only have one confirmed (and not even).

No. There were 0 kills night 1. That means that either a doctor/roleblocker type role prevented a night 1 kill or the scum willfully chose to not kill. Scum willfully choosing to not kill is extremely unlikely. the Vig doesn't play into this at all.

Is this a slip? Do you just know that mafia's kill was protected Night one, and that there was a vig? That would make sense if you were the person who suggested the vig to kill alvinz

I'm guessing the mafia's kill was protected night 1. It's the explanation that makes sense. The only other explanation involves the mafia choosing willfully not to kill someone.

I was also the one who suggested a vig shoot Alvinz. I had no clue if we actually had a vig or not (is your implication that I'm scum and miraculously know town roles? Do clarify), but I didn't want us to waste the entire day today arguing over and possibly lynching Alvinz.

[StrangerCoug]

I have class in 15 minutes, so I'll reread when I get home. I do see a case on Goatrevolt, though.

The fact that there were no NK's night 1 but two NK's night 2 leads me to believe that Megatheory was a one-shot vigilante instead of a full vigilante, but that's just my thinking and I could be completely wrong.

[sthar8]

Do explain. Also, you noticed this but didn't point it out and then when you finally were going to she had already been hammered? Why would you not simply point it out immediately? I mean, with a deadline and all...

I had no access over the weekend. When I came back on Monday to see if I needed to move my vote to avoid no-lynch, FL had already been hammered. After I looked in on my other game, I came back to read the page (or so) that I'd missed. I noticed a comment from the mod that discussed FL replacing back in, the possibility of which might have confirmed her as town. When I tried to post this info, I found that the thread was locked.

I also don't buy the "ugh, sorry about FL" bit. If you truly thought she was scum, then why would you feel remorse about lynching her?

I said I'm

not

sorry, specifically

because

she had me convinced she was scum. I would have apologized, however, if it had been any action of mine that caused me to misinterpret the tells and peg her as scum, rather than horrible play on her part.

Sthar, you've played a solid game, I'll grant you that. But to me, it's fairly obvious you are scum. You're strong logically, but have kept the door open on pretty much anyone (including myself). To me that suggests you are scum, because you certainly have the capability to narrow it down and figure out town tells and find scum, but you haven't been doing so.

Did you miss all of yesterday? I can't believe that anyone would accuse me of failing to scumhunt.

Also, if either Sthar or Veerus gets lynched and is scum then I think the other is fairly clearly scum as well. They have pretty much ignored each other the entire extent of this game, except when Veerus stepped up to defend Sthar against my attack yesterday. BaB still strikes me as the most likely 3rd target here.

If you have a case on veerus or BaB that doesn't revolve around craplogic or gut feeling, I'd be happy to take a look at it.

but you also have to write people off as town

No, actually that is still bad play. I've already explained why, and you seemed to agree with me, so I don't know where you're getting this ridiculous idea from.

If Sthar is able to convince you that I'm town, then I'm no longer a possible mislynch. It's better for him as scum to say he thinks I'm town but toss on a bunch of suspicion and let the town do the dirty work for him.

What, in all my posts, has you so convinced that I'd support your lynch?

are a couple of things he's done that just make me positive he's scum.

A couple of things that you can't explain. How am I supposed to defend against this?

Point blank, the townies in this game have made more mistakes and played scummier than the scum.

So now I'm too townie to be town?

When I said I found FL town and pushed my case on Sthar instead, both Sthar and Veerus pushed to keep pressure on FL and get her lynched

Maybe because you gave absolutely no reason why we should ignore the mounds of scumtells she had given off? I find it incredibly frustrating that you, whose primary defense against the attacks on you was that they had no solid evidence or support, would try to push all of these opinions without backing them up.

Also, I feel that if there is a doctor or other role that prevented a kill that first night, they should claim and also claim the player they saved as it would confirm 2 players as pro-town and narrow down our search by a lot. What's the consensus on this?

I'm not sure. I need to run the numbers first, but it's very possible that claims are in order at this point. I'll get back to you on this.

The fact that there were no NK's night 1 but two NK's night 2 leads me to believe that Megatheory was a one-shot vigilante instead of a full vigilante, but that's just my thinking and I could be completely wrong.

This is not a conclusion we can draw, and it is in fact unsupported by the current evidence. I would guess that the mod would have announced such a restriction in the death-reveal. More likely is that Mega was unsure of his target N1, and so chose not to kill.

[StrangerCoug]

I see Goatrevolt's earlier posts as protown, but the two posts setting me off are this and this, and both happen to be with vote reasoning. I'm the kind of person who expects voting to be accompanied with reasons for it, and failing that where to get it from.

The first vote doesn't address forbiddanlight at all other than voting her. I understand it was deadline, but your post before this says she was second behind BridgesAndBaloons in order of who you wanted lynched. I see your case on BAB, but I can't find any reasoning for the switch.

The second vote is more of a timing issue since this is the first post in a lynch or lose situation. Goatrevolt has pushed Sthar8 a lot, so I'm not as worried, but what happened to player reviews, and why do you suspect Sthar8 over veerus?

Also, suggesting that a vig kill alvinz95, the vig actually doing so, and then the vig dying that same night is making me suspicious of a Mafia role cop in the setup. I'm not going to play outguess the mod, and I'm trying to avoid going

post hoc

on Goatrevolt, but something is rotten in the state of Denmark.

FoS: Goatrevolt

Sthar8's next.

[StrangerCoug]

OK, sthar8's a pretty active scum hunter, and I have a pro-town read on him. His most recent post is also what stands out to me the most from him, and I like his case on Goatrevolt. When I start seeing stuff that warrants a vote on Goatrevolt, I'll consider doing so, but I want to look at everybody else first.

I know town shouldn't be lazy, but that's unfortunately me right now, so those are the two I'll do at the moment. Willing to hear cases from anybody about anybody, though.

[sthar8]

I don't have a case on goat. That would be BaB.

[StrangerCoug]

I don't have a case on goat. That would be BaB.

Your later posts address Goatrevolt a lot, so I was lead to believe otherwise.

Why BridgesAndBaloons?

[veerus]

Something to think about: When I said I found FL town and pushed my case on Sthar instead, both Sthar and Veerus pushed to keep pressure on FL and get her lynched, and Veerus both tossed suspicion on me and defended Sthar at the same time.

I did NOT defend Sthar.. we've been through this. Why are you still telling those fairy tales? As for FL.. she was *by far* the scummiest and most inconsistent player in the first two days. How can you possibly even think of defending that kind of behavior? Of course I accused you of being scummy for that. Ignoring obviously scummy behavior and focusing on people who have been scum-hunting is highly suspicious and not at all pro-town. This is a game of imperfect information so unless someone is a cop, it's perfectly understandable for them to observe conflicting tells and voice their concerns as such.

Other than that, the two have seriously not acknowledged the other's presence in this game at all. That's a perfect match for scum buddies right there.

Yet another lie. Take a look at page 14. That's when Sthar8 came in with his analysis of all players after he replaced into the game. He and I both answered each other's questions and posted some analysis. That's a little more than "not acknowledging".

You like to twist people's words a lot. Since you've started your off-shoot attack on Sthar8 (throwing my name in there whenever you can), I've called you out on several attempts to twist my words and create misconceptions. For that you are currently one of my top suspects, which is ironic considering you seemed one of the towniest in D1.

Also, I feel that if there is a doctor or other role that prevented a kill that first night, they should claim and also claim the player they saved as it would confirm 2 players as pro-town and narrow down our search by a lot. What's the consensus on this?

Why do you think the doctor/roleblocker should claim? How would a doctor/rb claim help the town at this stage? What if Sthar claims doctor/rb? Since he's your top suspect, would you even believe him?

[sthar8]

I'm defending myself against goat. I believe him to be misguided town. I'm pretty sure that BaB thinks goat is scum, though.

[StrangerCoug]

I'm defending myself against goat. I believe him to be misguided town. I'm pretty sure that BaB thinks goat is scum, though.

That's helpful information, but you still missed my question. Why do you suspect BridgesAndBaloons?

[Goatrevolt]

I see Goatrevolt's earlier posts as protown, but the two posts setting me off are this and this, and both happen to be with vote reasoning. I'm the kind of person who expects voting to be accompanied with reasons for it, and failing that where to get it from.

I have plenty of reasons for those votes.

The first vote doesn't address forbiddanlight at all other than voting her. I understand it was deadline, but your post before this says she was second behind BridgesAndBaloons in order of who you wanted lynched. I see your case on BAB, but I can't find any reasoning for the switch.

The reason for the switch was that we had a deadline in 2 days. I still believed FL was town, but I felt Alvinz was even more likely to be town, and FL was a much more valuable and informative lynch. Yes, I would have preferred that we lynch BaB, Veerus, and Sthar over FL, but Megatheory was literally the only player in the game even mildly considering my direction. Lynching any of those 3 players simply wasn't going to happen, and FL's lynch was far better than Alvinz, who at the time was either tied with FL or only 1 vote behind.

The second vote is more of a timing issue since this is the first post in a lynch or lose situation. Goatrevolt has pushed Sthar8 a lot, so I'm not as worried, but what happened to player reviews, and why do you suspect Sthar8 over veerus?

A couple of points. First, even though it's Lylo, it takes 2 townie votes along with 3 scum votes to lynch someone. My vote isn't threatening a town loss unless Sthar is town, another townie jumps on, and all 3 scum are able to time a quick lynch. I consider the above likelihood to be slim.

Secondly, I believe Veerus/Sthar to be a scum team, and would be willing to lynch either. I haven't provided a review of each player, but I certainly can, and I probably will do so.

Also, suggesting that a vig kill alvinz95, the vig actually doing so, and then the vig dying that same night is making me suspicious of a Mafia role cop in the setup. I'm not going to play outguess the mod, and I'm trying to avoid going

post hoc

on Goatrevolt, but something is rotten in the state of Denmark.

I'd still argue that what I did was pro-town. Quite a few players were deadset on Alvinz as scum, and he was serving as a huge distraction. I simply didn't want to waste the entire day today discussing him and invariably probably lynching him. I had no clue if we had a vig or not, but I don't see an issue with directing that vig shot to an already claimed player who was purposely being unhelpful and eating up the town's attention.

Your argument seems to be that I knew we had a vig based on a role cop ability and then killed that vig the following night after getting him to shoot a townie? Is that the accusation? First of all, that's pure theory. Second of all, my earlier posts today would have to be completely faked, when I suggested that the vig has to shoot tonight. If I knew Megatheory was the vig and was dead, then I would have had to just fake that statement off of the mod's mistake. Third of all, Megatheory shooting Alvinz only hurts us if the town was going to be able to overlook him and focus on other targets, which is something I simply do not see as likely.

That's helpful information, but you still missed my question. Why do you suspect BridgesAndBaloons?

I don't think he does. His statement was that BaB was the one who suspected me, not him. I think this is just a misunderstanding here.

[Goatrevolt]

OK, sthar8's a pretty active scum hunter, and I have a pro-town read on him. His most recent post is also what stands out to me the most from him, and I like his case on Goatrevolt. When I start seeing stuff that warrants a vote on Goatrevolt, I'll consider doing so, but I want to look at everybody else first.

I know town shouldn't be lazy, but that's unfortunately me right now, so those are the two I'll do at the moment. Willing to hear cases from anybody about anybody, though.

This really causes me to question here. Sthar doesn't have a case on me, so how exactly do you like his case on me?

[Goatrevolt]

I did NOT defend Sthar.. we've been through this. Why
are you still telling those fairy tales?

You can keep denying it, but you attacking one of my points against Sthar is indirectly defending him from that same point. Fairy tales? Hardly.

As for FL.. she was *by far* the scummiest and most inconsistent player in the first two days. How can you possibly even think
of defending that kind of behavior?

It's easy. That type of behavior was bad play but it didn't mean she was scum. I was correct about that. Scummiest and most inconsistent =/= scum. What bothers me is that when I jumped off and mentioned that I found FL town, rather than wonder if there was possibly something there and if I was on to something, instead you attacked me as just being her scum buddy. That's not the pro-town response. The way Megatheory handled the situation was pro-town.

Of course I accused you of being scummy for that. Ignoring obviously scummy behavior and focusing on people who have been scum-hunting is highly suspicious and not at all pro-town.

Entirely subjective. Scum Hunting is a term that implies one searching for and trying to find scum. Your actions, and those of Sthar strike me as "bad townie hunting," or looking for a townie who has made enough mistakes to serve as a suitable lynch without looking at the bigger picture or whether or not they actually seem likely to be scum. Your unwillingness to even consider me possibly being right about FL, and instead pushing her harder and me as a scum buddy strikes me as someone pushing townie mislynches, not scum hunting.

This is a game of imperfect information so unless someone is a cop, it's perfectly understandable for them to observe conflicting tells and voice their concerns as such.

But yet it's scummy for me to voice concern over the FL lynch and observe conflicting tells to suggest she's town?

You like to twist people's words a lot. Since you've started your off-shoot attack on Sthar8 (throwing my name in there whenever you can), I've called you out on several attempts to twist my words and create misconceptions. For that you are currently one of my top suspects, which is ironic considering you seemed one of the towniest in D1.

Wrong. You keep arguing that I'm twisting words with the defense of Sthar thing, but that's entirely based on perception. I see you step up and argue against one of my points on him, and that to me is pretty much the bona fide definition of defense. Sure, you two have mentioned each other, obviously that is going to happen. I wasn't literally suggesting that the two of you simply hadn't ever once said the other's name. I was merely saying that the two of you have more or less focused exclusively on other targets the entire game, coordinating your attack on FL, and you've stepped up to defend each other when I attacked yesterday.

Why do you think the doctor/roleblocker should claim? How would a doctor/rb claim help the town at this stage? What if Sthar claims doctor/rb? Since he's your top suspect, would you even believe him?

I think the doctor roleblocker should claim because if we mislynch today it's game over. Clearing 2 targets of being possible mislynches right off the bat gives us a smaller number of suspects to look at, and allows us to analyze information based on people's confirmed alignments that we normally would not have unless they were dead.

If Sthar claims doctor and can provide an uncounterclaimed result from the first night, then I'd be inclined to believe him. It seems highly unlikely that the scum would willfully select not to kill night 1, and thus an uncounterclaimed claim of that sorts would be one that I would almost certainly believe.

Personally, I'm actually in favor of a mass claim straight up. I want all information on the table for this lynch. We lose if we do it wrong, why wouldn't we want the most possible information out to do it right?

[StrangerCoug]

OK, sthar8's a pretty active scum hunter, and I have a pro-town read on him. His most recent post is also what stands out to me the most from him, and I like his case on Goatrevolt. When I start seeing stuff that warrants a vote on Goatrevolt, I'll consider doing so, but I want to look at everybody else first.

I know town shouldn't be lazy, but that's unfortunately me right now, so those are the two I'll do at the moment. Willing to hear cases from anybody about anybody, though.

This really causes me to question here. Sthar doesn't have a case on me, so how exactly do you like his case on me?

I mistook his defense as the case, as he pointed out. (In that case, though, I can say he has a believable defense, so I'm not pointing out good posting for a lost cause )

[veerus]

You can keep denying it, but you attacking one of my points against Sthar is indirectly defending him from that same point.

False -- I attacked the point that I perceived as untrue and an accusation against more than one player.

Of course I accused you of being scummy for that. Ignoring obviously scummy behavior and focusing on people who have been scum-hunting is highly suspicious and not at all pro-town.

Entirely subjective. Scum Hunting is a term that implies one searching for and trying to find scum. Your actions, and those of Sthar strike me as "bad townie hunting," or looking for a townie who has made enough mistakes to serve as a suitable lynch without looking at the bigger picture or whether or not they actually seem likely to be scum. Your unwillingness to even consider me possibly being right about FL, and instead pushing her harder and me as a scum buddy strikes me as someone pushing townie mislynches, not scum hunting.

The only thing I was unwilling to do was discount everything scummy FL did. I made my case on her early in D2 and it was never contradicted by the rest of the players nor was it properly defended by FL. The fact that she was at L-1 several times during D2 and was finally lynched only confirms that the town agreed she deserved to be lynched based on her play. Short of a confirmed cop's claim, it was inevitable.

This is a game of imperfect information so unless someone is a cop, it's perfectly understandable for them to observe conflicting tells and voice their concerns as such.

But yet it's scummy for me to voice concern over the FL lynch and observe conflicting tells to suggest she's town?

No, but it's scummy for you to be hypocritical and attack one of the people for the same thing you just claimed to do.

I was merely saying that the two of you have more or less focused exclusively on other targets the entire game, coordinating your attack on FL, and you've stepped up to defend each other when I attacked yesterday.

More fairy tales from our resident storyteller.

1. You do know that there

are

innocents here, right? Not everyone looks suspicious nor is scum. I haven't really seen you focus on skillit much or cerebus. You don't see me calling you and/or them scum because of that, do you?

2. That's preposterous. How did we coordinate an attack on FL? By voting her for legit reasons? Considering you spent much of D2 with a vote on her while attacking her for much the same reasons, this is kind of like the pot calling the kettle black.

3. Once again, I did not defend him and he definitely didn't defend me. Just because you keep repeating it, doesn't make it true.

I think the doctor roleblocker should claim because if we mislynch today it's game over. Clearing 2 targets of being possible mislynches right off the bat gives us a smaller number of suspects to look at, and allows us to analyze information based on people's confirmed alignments that we normally would not have unless they were dead.

If Sthar claims doctor and can provide an uncounterclaimed result from the first night, then I'd be inclined to believe him. It seems highly unlikely that the scum would willfully select not to kill night 1, and thus an uncounterclaimed claim of that sorts would be one that I would almost certainly believe.

So only claims you believe will be the ones that are not counterclaimed? That seems illogical and unrealistic.

Personally, I'm actually in favor of a mass claim straight up. I want all information on the table for this lynch. We lose if we do it wrong, why wouldn't we want the most possible information out to do it right?

For once, I'm not sure if I disagree with you.

[Dean Harper]

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:

sthar8 - (1) Goatrevolt

With 8 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch a player.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

I just realized that because we're at LYLO, we can't have a doctor.

Right?

LYLO means if we lynch incorrectly, the scum will be ensured at least 50% of the population.
Scum can't be 4 right now or they'd already win.
Scum has to be 3. So if we mislynch, they get a NK. Since it's LYLO, if we mislynch we lose, so does that mean we have no way to prevent the NK from occurring?

Where's the kink in my logic.

I also admit I've been extremely lazy with this game. I'm really sorry.

[Dean Harper]

I am gonna try not to reveal anything more about the setup than I already have. If there are 3 scum, and 3 town (even if there is a doctor), you would still be in LyLo because if you lynch incorrectly, the scum automatically win... No matter what.

Also, for anyone who doesnt know, LyLo means Lynch Correctly or Lose.

[StrangerCoug]

Mod: Goatrevolt is voting sthar8, not me.

[StrangerCoug]

EBWOP: The quota errors kept me from posting this, but where it says "me" it's more grammatically correct to say "I".

[Goatrevolt]

Why are so many people opposing mass claim here? Are you afraid of having a doctor come forward and clear 2 people of being town? I mean, there is minimal to no downside to doing this. There is huge upside. We clear out a few players from being possible scum suspects and can analyze their relationships with others from the vantage point of them being town. This is a huge help here.

So only claims you believe will be the ones that are not counterclaimed? That seems illogical and unrealistic.

For someone so bent out of shape about your perception of me telling fairy tales, you sure laid on a fairly healthy bit of misrepresentation here. I have no idea where you get this idea from or why you would assume this.

1. If someone claims doctor or another role that prevented a night 1 kill, and is uncounterclaimed, then I will almost certainly believe that person. Reason? There is legitimate information in the thread (no kill that night) to support this claim as fact, and the lack of a counterclaim cements the idea that this player is the one who is that role. It becomes clear that they are telling the truth.

2. This doesn't necessarily apply to other roles, which you have tried to suggest and thus are completely misrepresenting me. Other role claims will be taken under consideration based on who claimed them, what results they have, etc.

I disagree with the mod that this is lynch or lose under a strictly technical sense. I certainly hope that if we lynch town today that the mod would at least allow for a night phase for any pro-town roles to possibly prevent a loss, because after a lynch it would be 4 town 3 scum (which isn't game over).

Most likely, though, we have to lynch correctly today.

[StrangerCoug]

I'm fine with a massclaim if it's our only chance of winning, and I'll step forward and claim vanilla.

[veerus]

I understand the reasoning for mass-claiming as it would at least give us a chance to clear one or two people. Here's the problem I have with it -- if the doctor/rb claims and we still end up lynching town, then it's game over for sure since the doctor/rb would get NK'd. This is the scenario you are not mentioning with your suggestion of a mass claim.

[Goatrevolt]

I understand the reasoning for mass-claiming as it would at least give us a chance to clear one or two people. Here's the problem I have with it -- if the doctor/rb claims and we still end up lynching town, then it's game over for sure since the doctor/rb would get NK'd. This is the scenario you are not mentioning with your suggestion of a mass claim.

If we end up lynching town, the doctor has an extremely small chance of correctly saving someone anyway. Furthermore, perhaps the doctor can self-protect, etc. This right here is an "if we lynch town" reason why not to do something that would by all rights help us prevent lynching town. If we lynch town, we're almost certainly screwed as it is. We might as well do everything we can to prevent that scenario.

[sthar8]

SC, that's true unless you were protesting goat's vote being on you rather than me, I think

To be clear, I'm not suspicious of BaB, either. I meant that the person who was suspicious of goat was BaB.

BaB: Do mods normally factor possible night choices into determining LYLO? I wouldn't think so, specifically because such would be misleading to the town and could potentially affect gameplay. If our mod did not account for PR night choices, I think it would be a mistake for any doctor to claim, as we may be relying on his night choice in order to keep the game going. If this hypothetical doc were to claim and we were to mislynch, scum would have a clear target to make their NK effective. Finally, we can't really trust a doc protect to confirm someone unless we have a full massclaim. I just finished a game in which a missed kill was attributed to a doc protect rather than another role (BP townie, although RB or hider could do the same thing) and it almost cost the town the game.

If we do any claiming, I won't support it unless it's a full massclaim, because that's the only way to offset the extreme disadvantage to potentially losing any protective role we may have tonight.

Goat: I'd like to point out that you only mentioned veerus around six times in your posts before you voted me and announced that he's my scumbuddy. By comparison, I had mentioned him approximately seven times. What exactly are you accusing me of?

Scummiest and most inconsistent =/= scum.

If you don't use scummy behavior and inconsistancy to hunt scum, what do you use? Random guesses? That sure would explain a whole lot.

The way Megatheory handled the situation was pro-town.

This kind of necromancy is just annoying. Invoking a dead, confirmed town player who agreed with you is a fallacious appeal to emotion that has no place in a logical argument. I'm not sure what your definition of "protown" is in this situation, but I strongly suspect it might be "agrees with goat." In addition, mega's last two posts seem to suggest that he wasn't as solidly in your corner as you seem to be saying.

But yet it's scummy for me to voice concern over the FL lynch and observe conflicting tells to suggest she's town?

What tells? You basically announced in-thread " I feel like FL is protown, so I'm going to ignore all the scummy things she's done." When questioned for evidence, you continued to spout "feelings" and "impressions." How are we supposed to act on that kind of information? You gave us nothing that could have overidden FL's prior behavior, but you expected everyone to randomly trust you. I'll remind you that the earlier case against you was based on the same kind of "gut."

defend each other

Watch your implications, please. I don't think I've defended veerus at all, and in fact I don't think you've presented a case on veerus for anyone to defend against.

If we end up lynching town, the doctor has an extremely small chance of correctly saving someone anyway. Furthermore, perhaps the doctor can self-protect, etc.

I was under the impression that self-protecting docs are extremely overpowered and very rarely used.