electoral college mafia (now its done watch it go)

[tris]

Btw, IF there's a Vig; please don't shoot me. Let Scum strive and struggle for this one. It'd be most beneficial to town if I do live to -say- D3.

Not a crumb. Definitely not a crumb.

it is now d3. anything you want to share?

I did. I gave you a full solve already.

whatevr

[tris]

nice pagetop

[Almost50]

almost50 i think your theory is pretty solid but can you put it all together in one big post? it's hard to follow in multuple posts over three pages
if we can communicate the idea better we can proibabyl convince mathblade

I did. It was over only 2 posts:

It was a moment of revelation. I started by doing the undoable. The one thing I've been criticizing mastina for doing. A GROUP'S ANALYSIS.

I made quite a few assumptions though (that totally defy the mod's declared intention of messing with us)

One was lendunistus is Town from today's grouping. lendunistus' vote is hammer unless both groups vote for the same slot. If I was a mod I'd still give control over the hammer to Town as long as Town are the majority. It doesn't make much sense to give that to scum here. (That is precisely what the mod said he might do. I don't believe him tbh).

To be followed

Second assumption was: G1 on D2 (of 13 slots) was composed as a 13 players Normal setup. i.e. 10:3. This meant only 1 Scum on Auro/tris/Anya/OutWolrdER

Third assumption: G1 on D1 contained 1 Scum at max. Probably none. This gives Scum more weight to control the smaller groups.

Then I went further with my fantasies and theorized NONE was more likely than one. That way 1 scum in each of G2/G3/G4 and 1 in Flea/T3 gives Scum maximum control over the eventual voting, but still leaves Town in control overall.

Are you fillowing? I bet you got lost already.

1 Scum in lend/Out, with lend esyablished as Town (and flowtrap flipping Town) = Out is SCUM. That makes Auro/Tris/Anya all Town.

As if that wasn't enough moon!logic, I decided to toss in some arbitrary VCA as well. Just a little touch though..

mastina/bugs/Randy containing 1 Scum, and bugs was the one voting flow trap at the end of D1. Granted that didn't even count, but he was also voting momrangel before, so I picked him for the Scum in that group. That makes mastina/Randy Town AND Moz as well (as bugs is tunneling Moz iirc). Moz Town makes Vax Scum.

Back to today's grouping, Flea is with both Vax & Out in G1, so T3 is the Scum between the two (that is another implicit assumption that both groups are 5:2 today... the closest to a Normal setting)

And with that hilarious piece of wisdom I concluded my research and decided I got the solution already, and can proceed with a clear conscience

I also very much appreciate the nice gesture, considering you are part of my solve.

[tris]

vax isn't a bad vote i guess

[MathBlade]

@math: the reason t3 said "My theory was that all prs are mailmen." was because yesterday, he said he had a setup spec reason to believe that vfp's claim of simple doctor was wrong. he obviously doesn't believe in that theory anymore

I am gonna sit back a bit.

Can someone consolidate claims?

Anya mailmen
Mastina mason

It’s just so much easier when I don’t have to hunt for everything.

anya was only an implied claim. and with anya, it's hard to know if that was serious.
mastina claimed mason right at the start. who knows if that's serious

There’s something in particular I am looking for from Mastina, Anya, and Tsu

Y’all have known me long enough I don’t shut up easily so I want to see how they respond to the day open.

[tris]

Second assumption was: G1 on D2 (of 13 slots) was composed as a 13 players Normal setup. i.e. 10:3. This meant only 1 Scum on Auro/tris/Anya/OutWolrdER

Third assumption: G1 on D1 contained 1 Scum at max. Probably none. This gives Scum more weight to control the smaller groups.

Then I went further with my fantasies and theorized NONE was more likely than one. That way 1 scum in each of G2/G3/G4 and 1 in Flea/T3 gives Scum maximum control over the eventual voting, but still leaves Town in control overall.

Are you fillowing? I bet you got lost already.

1 Scum in lend/Out, with lend esyablished as Town (and flowtrap flipping Town) = Out is SCUM. That makes Auro/Tris/Anya all Town.

As if that wasn't enough moon!logic, I decided to toss in some arbitrary VCA as well. Just a little touch though..

mastina/bugs/Randy containing 1 Scum, and bugs was the one voting flow trap at the end of D1. Granted that didn't even count, but they were also voting momrangel before, so I picked them for the Scum in that group. That makes mastina/Randy Town AND Moz as well (as bugs is tunneling Moz iirc). Moz Town makes Vax Scum.

Back to today's grouping, Flea is with both Vax & Out in G1, so T3 is the Scum between the two (that is another implicit assumption that both groups are 5:2 today... the closest to a Normal setting)

And with that hilarious piece of wisdom I concluded my research and decided I got the solution already, and can proceed with a clear conscience

ftfy

[tris]

my brain is pretty tired right now. i'm out for a little bit

[mastina]

auro is lockscum

could be why Xtotm died. Fits.

It's definitely possible.

I think this locks Mastina as a mason imho.

I mean it definitely fits with you being scum who think Xtoxm+mastina = masons as that's something you've a strong inclination towards hunting for, but that doesn't do your slot many favors.

(You're a very high chance of being scum slot, but not the highest chance of being scum; I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt and some leeway here.)

Anyone town in group 2 PLEAS BE CAREFUL HOW YOU VOTE/DONT VOTE. Potentially most scum in group two, plus Len could quick hammer. I'm assuming most/all my group are town.

I mean:

GROUP 1

not voting (7):

Vaxkiller, OutWorldER, Flea the Magician, Tsutsu, mozamis, tris, Anya

GROUP 2

not voting (7):

mastina, Almost50, bugspray, MathBlade, T3, Auro, Gypyx

GROUP 3

not voting (1):

lendunistus

My group has bugspray (almost certainly scum), Auro (decent chance of being scum), MathBlade (reasonable chance of being scum), and two names that while I don't think they're scum, could potentially be scum even if I don't currently think they are (Almost50, T3). Literally the only name I trust to be town is Gypyx in the group, so you're not wrong.

That being said:

My theory was that all prs are mailmen.

I think this makes T3 town and I can see exactly why T3 would have that theory (it's not an unreasonable one to have). It was wrong, but the belief in it being right I think makes T3 town here.

Gypyx
Vaxkiller
mozamis

Noraa/Tsutsu
T3

Flea the Magician
quiet/Almost50

OutWorldER

tris

Anya

lendunistus

Auro

Randy Savage/MathBlade

bugspray

As a readslist, this is more or less the distribution which feels correct. And given it, compared to the above: IF there's scum in group 1 it would be Anya but it is highly likely that group 1 is, indeed, mostly or entirely town here.

VOTE: bugspray

[MathBlade]

Mastina I am not asking you to claim I am asking you to verify what you’ve said with a yes no simple answer or with as few words as possible.

You said you are a mason. Is this correct? Yes or No.
You said you targeted someone with a power. Is this correct? Yes or No.
You said you received a letter. Is this correct? If so yes or no and what did it contain and who from?
And lastly have you watched any you tube or musicals recently?

I know I am being stubborn but I am asking for a reason.

[mastina]

It’s likely with the mason claim Mom visited Mastina and blocked her

No, I was blocked by an odd-night Alien who was also a Messenger. They are not Momrangal; I know this for a fact now. So this game had Momrangal as a messenger-jailkeeper and a separate player who is an oddnight-messenger-alien.

At the start of D2 I made the obvious, but wrong, conclusion that Momrangal as the just-flipped messenger-jailkeeper had targeted me N1 and just lied about her role as a gambit, because when Momrangal flipped messenger-jailkeeper after I was targeted by a messenger claiming to be an odd-night alien, it felt like a pretty reasonable conclusion to make.

However, later developments proved this initial assumption of mine, reasonable as it was, to be a wrong one; Momrangal almost certainly targeted Noraa/Tsutsu, and I was definitely targeted by a player that is not Momrangal, and that player has the role of oddnight combined messenger-alien. I know for a fact it was not Momrangal gambiting now, but I didn't at D2's daystart.

[mastina]

Mastina can you please explain?

Can? Yes.
Will? No.

I have a visiting power; I am conftown; I will say no more than that and if scum wanna kill me N3 and run the risk of it failing due to the oddnight alien that's their prerogative.

(Also, I forgot to do this before, meant to do this in my first post of the day, I am rather bad at it, BUT: I am giving you similar leeway to Gypyx's game, as in, I was scumreading your predecessor and am giving you some amount of space. But this game you definitely aren't feeling as immediately town to me as you did that game, will say that.)

[MathBlade]

Mastina can you please explain?

Can? Yes.
Will? No.

I have a visiting power; I am conftown; I will say no more than that and if scum wanna kill me N3 and run the risk of it failing due to the oddnight alien that's their prerogative.

(Also, I forgot to do this before, meant to do this in my first post of the day, I am rather bad at it, BUT: I am giving you similar leeway to Gypyx's game, as in, I was scumreading your predecessor and am giving you some amount of space. But this game you definitely aren't feeling as immediately town to me as you did that game, will say that.)

Funny because this should be EXACTLY like that game to you.

But I get prior games can be hard to keep track of.

But at some point I wonder you have to be scum.

[mastina]

You said you are a mason. Is this correct? Yes or No.

This is not a question that I see any protown reason to answer at this time.

You said you targeted someone with a power. Is this correct? Yes or No.

Yes, but I know for a fact that N1, I was roleblocked. Given that I know I was roleblocked N1 and that I received a message from someone saying they're an odd-night Alien who targeted me N1, and that Aliens roleblock their target, this checks out.

You said you received a letter. Is this correct? If so yes or no and what did it contain and who from?

I did receive a letter N1. I have stated the contents of the letter. It was NOT from Momrangal; I don't see reason to specify further, given that the sender of the message is, explicitly, a very strong power role whose claim I can at least half-verify. (They claimed to target me with an action that blocks me, I was blocked N1, so at the very least the roleblocking half of the oddnight alien claim is confirmed.)

And lastly have you watched any you tube or musicals recently?

No, I have not.

[MathBlade]

You said you are a mason. Is this correct? Yes or No.

This is not a question that I see any protown reason to answer at this time.

You said you targeted someone with a power. Is this correct? Yes or No.

Yes, but I know for a fact that N1, I was roleblocked. Given that I know I was roleblocked N1 and that I received a message from someone saying they're an odd-night Alien who targeted me N1, and that Aliens roleblock their target, this checks out.

You said you received a letter. Is this correct? If so yes or no and what did it contain and who from?

I did receive a letter N1. I have stated the contents of the letter. It was NOT from Momrangal; I don't see reason to specify further, given that the sender of the message is, explicitly, a very strong power role whose claim I can at least half-verify. (They claimed to target me with an action that blocks me, I was blocked N1, so at the very least the roleblocking half of the oddnight alien claim is confirmed.)

And lastly have you watched any you tube or musicals recently?

No, I have not.

I think you or this alien are scum due to the one too many PRs problem.

[T3]

I could see lend being maf based on the groupings. I could see Auro being maf but it isn't a strong read at the moment. I'malso not liking bugspray. VOTE: bugspry

[T3]

tris and OWER are my biggest questionmarks for me at this point. Either I've forgot about someone or everyone else is leantowny/nulltown

[MathBlade]

Quote me where you said what they said again please Mastina.

[Anya]

hey everyone love you

[MathBlade]

hey everyone love you

Can you help me out and show me where you claimed mailman?

[Anya]

what how did you know i was a mailman?

[Anya]

are you a mafia rolecop?

[MathBlade]

what how did you know i was a mailman?

It was said earlier you did.

I am not a mafia rolecop it was suggested you were.

I am much more of a tunnelly player and tend to get single track or double tracked on a person.

[Anya]

wait what how did they figure out i was a mafia rolecop?

[MathBlade]

wait what how did they figure out i was a mafia rolecop?

...I mean that works lol

It was suggested earlier you were mailman and someone said you claimed mailman and I couldn’t find where.

I mean that went better than expected lol

Time to find who is scum with Anya then

[Anya]

i'm not a mailman or a rolecop though

i won't confirm or deny whether i'm mafia though

the game wouldn't be fun if we all role claimed straight away