MT 2203: Grand Idea Upick: Awakening [Endgame]

[Almost50]

Reminder: We lost 2 "originally Town" slots and 1 anti-town so far. Best case scenario we have a lone scumster, and worst case is we are 5 townies vs 5 non-town.

[Ircher]

Day 3 VC #1

Not Voting (3) - Guillotina, Almost50, KidAmn, Vaxkiller, Raya36, samantha97, mahimahi, CaptainS, Flea The Magician, TemporalLich

With 10 alive, it takes 6 votes to execute a player.

Deadlines

This phase will end no later than Sunday, April 18, 2021 9:00:00 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-04-18 21:00:00).
This phase will end no earlier than Monday, April 12, 2021 8:00:00 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-04-12 20:00:00).

Moderator Notes

1: If you have regular weekend V/LA, please inform me each week.
2: As a reminder, please try to avoid multiposting in a row as that can clutter the thread and make it harder for people who are behind to catch up. Try to combine smaller posts into one larger post.
3: Please try to avoid using the L-word. Alternatives like eliminate, fade, launch, etc. are highly encouraged.

Pronoun Key

1. mahimahi : They/Them
2. Flea the Magician : Fae/Faer (Preferred) or They/Them
3. Raya36 : She/Her
4. TemporalLich : He/Him
5. Guillotina : He/Him
6. Korina : They/Them (Preferred) or He/Him
7. Almost50 : He/Him
9. KidAmn : They/Them
11. samantha97 : Any/Any
12. CaptainS : Any/Any
13. Vaxkiller : Any/Any

[TemporalLich]

VFP was cult apparently

This means Korina was indeed not truth-telling, but the spicy NK leads me to believe Vaxkiller is groupscum.

[samantha97]

well he was 2 shot if I remember right so he should have a result today

[Raya36]

Yeah, I want to wait for his result before I start pressing too much there.

TL, why does the NK lead to vax being groupscum?

[TemporalLich]

All I know is that this clears Raya a bit, unless Vax ends up not groupscum

yeah Vax needs a result thingy today

also Vax's role exists as groupscum, so I am not convinced Vax is town especially with the choice of nightkill.

pedit: Vax has an extremely strong town role. Either the game is multiball and a Doctor exists or Vax is groupscum.

Regardless I have no strong candidates for voting, and Raya is a townread via mechanics ("mechtown")

[Raya36]

The game was a upick though with alignments randomized. I doubt there was even an attempt to balance this game

[Guillotina]

Good shot o.o


Vaaaax..... what the buffalo was all that beef about?



PEDIT: Agreed.

VFP,

Cultist Dolphin

Well then, this takes care of the Cult faction altogether (and proves Korina was lying about having targeted Vax), but

it still does not completely clear Vax

.

That said, if Vax is a WW and has played his cards so effectively I won't be an arse to him. I do not want him limmed today (and I won't even be bitter if he ends up winning as a WW).

Some may question my suspicion on Vax, but I say it's also "too convenient" that VFP -of all- gets shot tonight (and over VAX himself).

Anyway, let's see what result Vax has for us today and move on based on that.

Do you think VFP was likely shot by scum?

[TemporalLich]

This is a uPick but I think cards retain alingments

I am pretty sure VFP was shot by scum with Vax in it... but a Vig is a possibility that shouldn't be overlooked and it isn't the Occam's Razor defying Vax was protected by Doc and the game is definitely Multiball.

If I had to guess right now.

mahimahi+ - WW
Flea - town
Raya36 - scum
TemporalLich - town
Guillotina - cultist
Korina - town
Almost50 - town
KidAmn - town
Nono - SK
samantha97 - town
CaptainS - scum
Vaxkiller - scum

This most likely comes from town!VFP, unless Korina was able to act in pregame lol

then again Korina flipped cult so I would take this with a pile of salt.

[samantha97]

I am pretty sure VFP was shot by scum with Vax in it... but a Vig is a possibility that shouldn't be overlooked and it isn't the Occam's Razor defying Vax was protected by Doc and the game is definitely Multiball.

doctor protected successfully 2 nights in a row? or vig holstered night 1? and multiball with... aliens? multiball based on what?

[TemporalLich]

I am pretty sure VFP was shot by scum with Vax in it... but a Vig is a possibility that shouldn't be overlooked and it isn't the Occam's Razor defying Vax was protected by Doc and the game is definitely Multiball.

doctor protected successfully 2 nights in a row? or vig holstered night 1? and multiball with... aliens? multiball based on what?

By Occam's Razor defying I mean that it would take a lot of assumptions for the multiball assumption to be true.

I don't believe in that but the Vig shot makes more sense (especially if you assume a gated vig - but that still requires a Doc to make sense).

Vax is groupscum is the hypothesis that requires the least amount of assumptions, but "the game is not multiball" is an assumption that applies here.

[Raya36]

This is a uPick but I think cards retain alingments

Yeah and I definitely agree Vax could be scum for that, I just don't think him having a strong role can really be a factor for making a mechanical read this game

[TemporalLich]

if we're resorting to reads instead of mechanics Vax is still scummy

[Raya36]

Yeah, the more I think about it the more that kill makes sense. That eliminates all the suspicion about the cult stuff including the mechanical guilty of Korina not being able to cult him

[Almost50]

Do you think VFP was likely shot by scum?

I am leaning towards it, yes. I obviously can't rule out a Town Vig (who was sane enough to holster on N1)*, but I don't think there's a Doctor in this game.**

* I don't even know if there are Novice roles on the GIM thread, and I'm not sure about there being an Even Night Vig either. EVEN if there are; I don't think anyone deliberately picks either of those, so IF there's a Vig then they holstered by their own choice.

** I also don't see anyone picking Town Doctor in a UPick. Like, everybody knows Scum roles will have as much powered roles as they could, so strongman or "unstoppable" kills will exist. Also it's hard enough for the Doctor to outguess the Scum, and even more so when it's possible the game is multi-ball (meaning you could stop a scum kill on a different scum faction member, thus acting anti-town in effect).. etc. All in all I personally wouldn't pick Doctor if I saw the option.

But -since my mind just loves to go places- let me tell you that your question here triggered something inside me. It could be that a Vig made that shot and that you are group scum and thus you are lowkey hunting for that Vig without having to say "If a Vig made that shot please claim". Yes, I know "The Razor of Occam" suggests it was a simple question and not that convoluted, but I can't help my mind thinking otherwise.

Spoiler:

[Guillotina]

I got a different theory.

I dont think scum are so incompetent to NK VFP when in the thread most us suspected him, he was gonna be the yeet and scum would want a wasted day on a probable convert.

I think VFP was a town vig shot and that scum failed their shot or it was blocked.

This does not clear Vax, for all we know he could be a scum rolecop

BUT

Would an experienced player like Vax out himself to shoot down a cult leader when his faction could just NK Korina the following night?

[Guillotina]

I got a different theory.

I dont think scum are so incompetent to NK VFP when in the thread most us suspected him, he was gonna be the yeet and scum would want a wasted day on a probable convert.

I think VFP was a town vig shot and that scum failed their shot or it was blocked.

This does not clear Vax, for all we know he could be a scum rolecop

BUT

Would an experienced player like Vax out himself to shoot down a cult leader when his faction could just NK Korina the following night?

Let me rephrase would scum vax out himself to out Korina in the thread?

[Vaxkiller]

Good shot o.o


Vaaaax..... what the buffalo was all that beef about?



PEDIT: Agreed.

Waht beef?

[Guillotina]

Reminder: We lost 2 "originally Town" slots and 1 anti-town so far. Best case scenario we have a lone scumster, and worst case is we are 5 townies vs 5 non-town.

5 non town in a 13 player set up? Come on now. Ircher is not a noob mod.

[Vaxkiller]

The game was a upick though with alignments randomized. I doubt there was even an attempt to balance this game

It was upick with specific alignments tho, not random.

[samantha97]

5 non town in a 13 player set up? Come on now. Ircher is not a noob mod.

we already know there could be as many as 6 by default

[Guillotina]

5 non town in a 13 player set up? Come on now. Ircher is not a noob mod.

we already know there could be as many as 6 by default

That's crazy, was this mentioned in the OP?

[TemporalLich]

Yeah, the more I think about it the more that kill makes sense. That eliminates all the suspicion about the cult stuff including the mechanical guilty of Korina not being able to cult him

yeah

VOTE: Vaxkiller

Vax's ISO looks scummy, I scumread Vax on Day 1, and now Vax is a scumread via mechanics ("mechscum")

I am leaning towards it, yes. I obviously can't rule out a Town Vig (who was sane enough to holster on N1)*, but I don't think there's a Doctor in this game.**

* I don't even know if there are Novice roles on the GIM thread, and I'm not sure about there being an Even Night Vig either. EVEN if there are; I don't think anyone deliberately picks either of those, so IF there's a Vig then they holstered by their own choice.

** I also don't see anyone picking Town Doctor in a UPick. Like, everybody knows Scum roles will have as much powered roles as they could, so strongman or "unstoppable" kills will exist. Also it's hard enough for the Doctor to outguess the Scum, and even more so when it's possible the game is multi-ball (meaning you could stop a scum kill on a different scum faction member, thus acting anti-town in effect).. etc. All in all I personally wouldn't pick Doctor if I saw the option.

But -since my mind just loves to go places- let me tell you that your question here triggered something inside me. It could be that a Vig made that shot and that you are group scum and thus you are lowkey hunting for that Vig without having to say "If a Vig made that shot please claim". Yes, I know "The Razor of Occam" suggests it was a simple question and not that convoluted, but I can't help my mind thinking otherwise.

Spoiler:

yeah I currently believe Vax is scum, it helps that this is read-based as well as mechanic-based.

Novice Vigilante doesn't appear in the GIM thread but X-shot Vigilantes do. Even then this is a UPick and ungated Vigilantes exist. So a Doc must exist for that to be likely. Even then, a Strong-Willed Vigilante exists!

Doctor is a simple role but it isn't that flashy. There are flashy protective roles like Divine Protector however. Doctor is a simple role and a uPick is for to play that role you always wanted to play and Doctor is a Normal role.

... maybe but I feel that's an innocent question

pedit: I had the exile as {Raya, VFP} as in I'd exile either one.

and I really think Vax is scum instead of assuming the mechanics are a clear when we don't even have a fegging claimed vig or role cop (yes Korina claimed vig, that doesn't count)

[Vaxkiller]

Would an experienced player like Vax out himself to shoot down a cult leader when his faction could just NK Korina the following night?

oof. I'm not experienced. I dont think anyone on this site has called me that.

Well... I have had alot of experiences... but experienced make it seem like im good at something, and mafia im not. Most of the time I just blunder thru things.

Sometimes, someone will be like "Oh yea good move by vax" and meanwhile... it was just my drunk ass typing something dumb, or doing something at random.

[Vaxkiller]

I dont get you temp lich