Happy Face Mafia (Game Over)

[samantha97]

retti: 6 town with masks
willow: vfp+raya+(willow) have no mask

masks: me+flea+dunnstral+romance+t3+(retti)

poison first appearing on day 6 heavily suggests a mask so like..........

shouldn't retti be considering willow mafia here and willow be considering retti mafia here?

just something I thought about before bed

[willow1]

i did reconsider retti earlier in the day but decided against it

i was originally afraid of like bear hugs thinking that scum

had

to have a mask but then i realized bell had one and 3-1 and 2-2 for mask ownership are both plausible to me.

finally i was concerned i might have gotten roleblocked after receiving clarification after getting clarification that a negative result did not mean i successfully targeted them (ie. i may have been roleblocked) but jjh was an even-night roleblocker so both vfp/raya are likely genuinely maskless, though i will probably be reinvestigating anyway as going elsewhere makes no sense

[willow1]

i'll probably vote no fade in the morning but i'm tired boi and dunno if there's any tasks left to do, might doublecheck the vote out today strat if i feel motivated

[Flea The Magician]

I'm masking tonight anyway.

The inflatables are getting popped.

[VFP]

I have nothing to add other than what I said.

If 1 of me or Raya is alive lim there.
Both then whatever
If neither are alive in some strange world, its Retti and they want to lose...

I'm hoping RNG just kills me.

[samantha97]

since I'm definitely not gonna be here tomorrow I don't intend on voting btw

the choice is entirely up to the people who are gonna be

[willow1]

as long as u don't shoot retti or flea ill be happy, and we will 100% blame u personally if u do

make the 3 way easy or shuffle me off this mortal coil thanks

[willow1]

retti on the surface though voting did look better b/c the info aspect actually works for both?

im fine w/ either but kinda sick of working out mech atm, just tell me what to do

[Raya36]

I have nothing to add other than what I said.

If 1 of me or Raya is alive lim there.
Both then whatever
If neither are alive in some strange world, its Retti and they want to lose...

I'm hoping RNG just kills me.

This is pretty much where I'm at

[MariaR]

VC 6.1

No fade: (3)-VFP, Retti, Raya36

Not Voting: (3) Flea The Magican, willow1, samantha97

Deadline is in (expired on 2021-06-04 03:22:40)

With 6 players alive, it takes 4 to fade away

[Retti]

Spoiler: Math Stuff

from a neutral perspective:

voting today

1/4 (probability of voting correctly) + 3/4 (probability of voting incorrectly)*1/3 (probability the scum nightkill stacks with the vig kill)*1/3 (probability of voting right in 3 way)=0.3333

no fade today

1/4 (probability of the clear getting vigged)*1/4 (probability of voting right in 4 way)+3/4 (probability of an unclear getting vigged)*1/3 (probability of voting right in 3 way)=0.3125

if I look at things from my own POV where I know I'm town it goes to:

1/3 (probability of voting correctly)+2/3 (probability of voting incorrectly)*1/3 (probability the scum nightkill stacks with the vig kill)*1/2 (probability of voting right in 3 way)=0.4444

1/2 (probability of a clear getting vigged)*1/3 (probability of voting right in 3 way)+1/2 (probability of an unclear getting vigged)*1/2 (probability of voting right in 3 way)=0.4167

The tldr is that there's a slight mathematical advantage to voting today but not really to the point where I can justify voting. I'd rather just no fade at this point given where discussion has gone.

[willow1]

sure ok ty

VOTE: no fade

[MariaR]

VC 6.final

No fade: (4)-VFP, Retti, Raya36, willow1

Not Voting: (2) Flea The Magican, samantha97

Deadline is in (expired on 2021-06-04 03:22:40)

With 6 players alive, it takes 4 to fade away

[MariaR]

No fade has been achieved!

Get those night actions in (expired on 2021-05-30 04:23:21)

[MariaR]

And we're back! Let's see who what I missed.

Raya36 has died! Let's see what they were

Spoiler: Welcome Raya36 you are

Guardian Mask

Powers

You are a Vanilla Townie

X: You have your vote and voice use them wisely

[/area]

Wait, it seems we're not done here!

samantha97 has died! Let's see what they were

Spoiler: Welcome samantha97 you are

Sniper Mask

Powers

You are a Town 1-shot vigilante

X: At night you may target a player, you will attempt to kill them.
X1: You also own a

Mask

if you choose to wear it you will gain one more vig shot and be given a list that will contain at least one mafia

[MariaR]

VC 7.0

Not Voting: (4) Flea The Magican, willow1, VFP, Retti

Deadline is in (expired on 2021-06-09 19:22:14)

With 4 players alive, it takes 3 to fade away

[VFP]

Well played Retti.

[Flea The Magician]

Well, I popped the inflatables. To no effect it seems.

[willow1]

real glad we no faded lmfao

raya still had no mask, v shocking I know

I'm traveling atm but oh boy

[willow1]

Well played Retti.

this threw me before realizing you seem to think it's retti? is this interpretation correct?

why tf is it him over me fypov

[willow1]

Willow can be added because scum don't need to know who has a mask or not, rather than who has a role or not.

I really don't see why this is more conclusive than dueling scum twice?

It also makes sense to split up the powers, and from what we've seen town disproportionately had masks

Also pretty confused by two deaths, scum presumably shot Sam so the poison claim is ??? Scum shooting Raya makes no fuckin sense

[willow1]

Like I would consider Retti solely b/c 1 scum 6 town for masks is a bit weird

But two shot gladiatorial poisoner is uhhhh out there

[Retti]

If I were scum I'd just say "you know what let's fade Raya" yesterday and win

But I felt like she towntold the moment she made that "I'd rather you vote me today" post

[Retti]

Well, I popped the inflatables. To no effect it seems.

I was assuming you did something to stop the kill and that's why you're alive?

[Retti]

Well played Retti.

Why are you concluding it's me and not willow?