Open 816: C9++ || Game Over

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Tigerente

I like wagons

[Umlaut]

Yeah but it's really selfish you know? I think RVS has it's usage and I don't know why you couldn't have waited

I don't know what it is people think is so great about RVS, literally the only reason it exists because in the absence of anything to talk about random votes are all we have.

[Umlaut]

Have you never caught scum because of behavior shown during RVS?

Sure I have, but I've caught them because of behavior shown during every other phase of the game as well. There's nothing special about RVS in that regard.

[Umlaut]

Trying to catch up but probably won't be able to devote serious thought to this before tomorrow. But maybe I will, who knows??

• I have a fairly strong gut read that Dwlee is town
  
• No idea about xHeavenx or Datisi based on their kerfuffle earlier
  
• A50 is his usual inscrutable self (but maybe I can scrute him if I try hard enough)
  
• Really don't know what Gamma is on about saying A50 has scumtold already on pg. 4 but he seems to think it's self-evident; that strikes me as towny
  
• Tigerente is still a not-bad wagon

A50 as scum could actually deduce that there is only one M, if he got Goon + Godfather. My slip detector turned on.
VOTE: A50

I just don't believe this is a real slip.

[Umlaut]

Given public knowledge the probability of a TTTTTTM roll is about 2.8%, and the 'slip' theory only makes sense in that one case. The relative odds of A50 saying that particular thing as scum vs. town can't realistically be high enough to overcome such a prior.

[Umlaut]

Sweet, ten new pages, call me when it slows down a bit because I'm not going to try to keep up with this.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: umlaut

maybe this is just cakez/kerset/umlaut

Call it excessively self-aware on my part, but based on my model of how Datisi usually meta-reads me I don't understand where this is coming from.

[Umlaut]

now it's not only "does umlaut look similar to those two scumgames of his i modded", now it's also "do not give umlaut a pass for doing jackshit nothing and think he's town because ~scum!him would be doing more~, scum!him absolutely will do jackshit if he thinks he can get away with it"

Yeah, I kind of anticipated that, but thinking my being inactive (all of 48[?] hours into the game at that) explicitly makes me scum still doesn't fit when you know perfectly well I can be demotivated and useless as any alignment.

For some context, I only thought I could get away with it that time because it was clear from Day 1 that Icon was going to carry the game.

[Umlaut]

For that matter, I

did

get away with it that time because Icon

did

carry the game, so the real moral is "if Scumlaut is not making any effort to look towny it's because he knows he's already won"

[Umlaut]

A50 as scum could actually deduce that there is only one M, if he got Goon + Godfather. My slip detector turned on.
VOTE: A50

Kerset, do you still believe in this? You're still voting it but then you haven't really posted much since then so it's hard to tell.

[Umlaut]

almost50 screwing around is how he towntells

Tell me more about this because I get the impression that A50 screwing around is NAI.

[Umlaut]

Ancillary: God i hate hydras.

Going to go for the moon logic award here: This is very +town

[Umlaut]

Should be color coded and sorted rather than lazily scribbled on a napkin that's still got ketchup stains on it.

This is a really dumb thing to critique, do you think being a little sloppy is somehow relevant to alignment or are you just choosing random NAI things to pick on?

[Umlaut]

i am noticing that umlaut seems to start to contribute as soon as he gets called out. (i.e. he is actually Making a post or two in my reading now.) now i know nobody is gonna take me seriously but how is nobody batting an eye at this timing? @skit what is ~maybe town~ about him?

also gamma posts read worse and worse and the fact that he didn't try to respond to my previous call-out is annoying and/or scummy (is it? i'm gonna write that it is)

This latter quote suggests that if I didn't respond to getting called out you would be just as happy to complain about that.

(Also Gamma is probably town)

[Umlaut]

A50 as scum could actually deduce that there is only one M, if he got Goon + Godfather. My slip detector turned on.
VOTE: A50

Kerset, do you still believe in this? You're still voting it but then you haven't really posted much since then so it's hard to tell.

Bumping this now that Kerset is around in case they missed it

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Kerset

Haven't read but I like this wagon based on last time I checked in.

[Umlaut]

A million years ago (a.k.a. yesterday) Datisi asked me why Gamma is town and honestly it's just on the strength of his early A50 push, not that I thought it was necessarily a strong case but the way he went about it struck me as town-motivated. In general I get the sense that he thinks his posts

obviously

make sense and doesn't feel a need to explain them or himself, which I don't expect from scum because scum don't just expect to be believed by default

[Umlaut]

Kerset is L-2 by my count based on last VC.

[Umlaut]

Going to go for the moon logic award here: This is very +town

...go on

-S

Searched my name to see if anyone asked me anything and found this.

PP's 575 "God I hate hydras" is not the sort of sentiment I think is likely to be fabricated (if I were looking for lies-I-can-tell-to-look-town that would just never occur to me) so it has to be taken as genuine. Penguin is expressing real frustration there with the reminder that Tigerente is a hydra and doesn't just have a single mindset to try and understand. Note this post comes right after Tigerente's 574 saying, in part, "and r.e. our vote: i wanted to move our vote off of dwlee, bork wanted to vote there, and out of hte people i'm not townreading they seem like a decent vote so i'm cool with it too"

The only reason for Penguin to feel frustrated here is because

Tigerente is hard for him to read.

If he's not actually trying to read Tigerente (because he's scum and already knows her alignment) he would have no reason to get frustrated and no reason to post that addendum.

[Umlaut]

If he's not actually trying to read Tigerente (because he's scum and already knows

their

alignment)

EBWOP, oops

[Umlaut]

I used to not play Larges because I couldn't handle the sheer number of posts, but the way site meta has gone I'm going to have to give up Minis too and only play Micros

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Kerset

This is enough content for the day. I don't care if people think I'm scummy for the hammer you do what you have to do.

If Kerset is scum then I mismanaged some things.

This is such an impressively ridiculous progression I don't think scum could make it

I wasn't townreading her by any stretch of the imagination I just much preferred Cakez here.

Never mind, maybe they could if they then backpedal

[Umlaut]

XD

Kerset is SK, you heard it from me first.

[Umlaut]

Normally I wouldn't just out myself out of the blue like this but I think that (1) the game is won anyway and (2) y'all are working on bad information by assuming the chance of Tigerente being blocked is small, so I'll just reveal:

I'm Town Roleblocker (unlimited-shot). I blocked Tigerente last night.

[Umlaut]

This also means their vig claim is almost certainly true and that other kill probably came from an SK (if there's

another

vig they should definitely own up)

[Umlaut]

I blocked Tigerente last night.

no offense but what the fuck lol

Seemed to have the highest product of "likelihood of being scum" * "likelihood that, if scum, they're submitting the kill" (though I didn't actually do the calculation, just relied on vague impressions like I've been doing)

[Umlaut]

Tigerente, you're unlimited-shot?

[Umlaut]

Wait, how do we know there's a C? I either missed or forgot something (or Datisi has something to tell us)

[Umlaut]

Wait, how do we know there's a C? I either missed or forgot something (or Datisi has something to tell us)

limit flipped 1-shot cop

Oh right.

Yeah, I agree with massclaim and I agree with leaving the order to Infinity

[Umlaut]

I can pontificate on the possible setups remaining and their relative probabilities but probably best to let everyone claim without that info in front of them first.

[Umlaut]

Tigerente and Umluat should both be clear here right? Unless Umlaut could be claiming results as scum roleblocker? This is my first time playing this setup so I don't entirely grasp the randomization process.

It's impossible for me to be scum roleblocker since A50 already took that role. I suppose someone could believe I was claiming A50's roleblock target, though in that alternate reality I'm pretty sure I would probably just let everyone launch Cakez today instead of instantly claiming like that.

[Umlaut]

I think Dwlee assumed [REDACTED] had to be redacting only one word, or something like that

[Umlaut]

I think we should refrain from further discussing the details of how the setup operates until massclaim is done. If some of us are confused about it then scum can be confused about it too and are more likely to make a mistake.

[Umlaut]

Gamma just keep reading.

I think Dwlee assumed [REDACTED] had to be redacting only one word, or something like that

Yea this. Normally when I see mods do this they put all the names comma separated with redacted in between.

You need to get some better mods then because leaking the number of Mafia in a flip is just absurdly sloppy modding

[Umlaut]

I think we should refrain from further discussing the details of how the setup operates until massclaim is done. If some of us are confused about it then scum can be confused about it too and are more likely to make a mistake.

[Umlaut]

I want Cakez to be scum because last night's actions are way funnier if he is.

[Umlaut]

I have a theory on what the thing is and I'm gonna save it til end of massclaim

Same

I was about to say that after running the probabilities I'm not so sure massclaim is a good idea, and now that we can't rely on the setup it's probably even less of a good idea. Let's just play Mafia.

[Umlaut]

I assume that just means the algorithm for the setup wasn't entirely precise but the game lives on as it's own thing?

It means we may (and probably do) have a collection of roles that is not supposed to be possible according to how a C9++ setup is generated, but we're going to play the game with the role PMs we got.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: SirCakez

I think the game progresses best if we resolve this

Sorry I'm being so lazy, it's just because... I'm lazy

[Umlaut]

I don't think the Kerset yeet was anywhere near foregone-conclusion enough to warrant a double bus. Most likely the remaining maf was off the wagon. Ruling out players who are dead or conftown, that means maf in {Pooky, Cakez}. I'm quite happy to flip them both.

Also gambler's fallacy says it's way past time for Cakez to be scum in a game with me.

[Umlaut]

Yeah, probably a good idea. I'm happy to listen to the wisdom of the crowd on that one but as of now I'm just going to block whichever of {Cakez, Pooky} we don't flip (Cakez if we don't flip either one)

[Umlaut]

A mod error was discovered in the setup. One role PM was incorrect. That player will not receive a corrected role PM and the game will continue with this public disclosure.

Trying to decide whether Menalque would use this wording if the role PM that was "incorrect" was a VT role PM that should have been an additional PR

[Umlaut]

Open 680, also a C9++ game, was abandoned because the mod mistakenly interpreted a single B as generating a single 1-Shot Roleblocker and gave me that role instead of the unlimited Roleblocker role I should have gotten. (That's the way all the letters C, D, and M work, so he probably just assumed B worked the same way without looking carefully.)

Menalque could have made an analogous error and thought BB was a single unlimited Roleblocker as opposed to a Roleblocker + 1-Shot Roleblocker.

[Umlaut]

That's the way all the letters C, D, and M work

C, D, and V, rather. M of course works differently

[Umlaut]

that would usually be done in consultation

I don't know what this means?

[Umlaut]

Oh, you mean

what to say

would have been done in consultation (so whether

Menalque specifically

would word it in that way is not a meaningful indicator).

I didn't really mean to try and read his mind specifically, I was just wondering whether the wording could allow for the case where we have one more or fewer VT than expected.

[Umlaut]

im fine with a cakez flip here but I want to see conditional choices from vig/blockers so we have an idea of what to do tomm plz

My intent right now is to unconditionally block you and I won't deviate from that plan without explicitly saying so in advance.

I could maybe be talked into choosing differently conditional on Cakez flipping Mafia specifically, but even then I don't think you're a

bad

choice by any means.

[Umlaut]

i think it's suspcious that [Pooky]'s actively looking to be rb'd (i.e. over vigged)

Pooky is sort of a waste of good suspicion at this point. I'm blocking him, if we come up short a kill he's the presumptive yeet tomorrow, so regardless of his motives for accepting the RB it's not as if it can win him the game if he's scum.

[Umlaut]

Happy scumday, Penguin! (Possibly early for you since I have board time set to UTC because of reasons)

[Umlaut]

Is this hammered?

I am realizing last-second that we should probably extract a claim from Gamma

[Umlaut]

Confirming I blocked Pooky.

I think no matter what we end the day by yeeting him but let's first have Tigerente and me pick actions for tonight just in case he does flip green.

[Umlaut]

Yeah wait this is 1:7 with three confirmed town, we don't actually need a plan more complicated than "yeet the obvious suspect and block/vig the rest"

Tigerente, if this flips green what do you say you vig PenguinPower tonight and I block Datisi? I'm just as happy to go with this or any other arrangement out of the three unconfirmed but want to get a specific suggestion out there.

[Umlaut]

I don't expect Pooky to claim honestly, and we're yeeting them regardless of claim so it doesn't matter.

Forget order,

everyone who hasn't claimed should claim in their next post.

[Umlaut]

Pedit: i think we would prefer if we target heaven and you block penguin

That's good with me, I just forgot Heaven existed. I endorse this plan.

[Umlaut]

Yeah wait this is 1:7 with three confirmed town, we don't actually need a plan more complicated than "yeet the obvious suspect and block/vig the rest"

i mean, if it were "three confirmed town" then yes definitely we're in auto one way or the other. but there's this one in something chance you're a galaxy brain sk (i admit it's extremely small pls don't start yelling at me) and i wanna get all the claims out first, since that potentially does confirm you (i say potentially because we're playing a closed game in the open queue >_>)

You got me, Tigerente's kill on SirCakez was stopped by a completely different unclaimed PR and I just came in and said "IT WAS ME I BLOCKED IT" for the lulz

Where do I go to pick up my scummy

[Umlaut]

Forget order,

everyone who hasn't claimed should claim in their next post.

Infinity, Tigerente, could you please both ratify this so that people

*coughDwleecough*

will actually do it?

[Umlaut]

oh sorry

[Umlaut]

If not for the error the current public information ( with the reasonable assumption that known townies are honest, so Tigerente isn't a 1-shot vig or something) would mean the setup has to be TCVVMB? where ? can be any of {D, V, B}. It couldn't be T or there would be no serial killer (and the game would be over), it couldn't be C or there would be no one-shot cop

[Umlaut]

and it couldn't be M because there would be no Innocent Child

[Umlaut]

Well that's everyone but Pooky, and I don't know about the rest of you but I don't see any need to wait around for him to claim when there's a much more reliable way of finding out his role.

VOTE: Pooky

[Umlaut]

Tigerente vigs Heaven tonight, I block PenguinPower.

[Umlaut]

Also gambler's fallacy says it's way past time for Cakez to be scum in a game with me.

I learned this game that the gambler's fallacy always works!