Open 820: The Siege of Aurelia — Game Over!

[Dannflor]

VC 1.04

... Steel For Humans

Preparation

[2] Gate

:

ssbm_Kyouko, unwnd

[0] Wall

:

[3] Keep

:

T3, catboi, Dunnstral

[4] Unassigned

:

skitter30, Something_Smart, implosion, PenguinPower

The Preparation Phase deadline is in

: (expired on 2021-07-25 11:27:06)

Mod Notes

: Something_Smart and skitter30 are V/LA until the 20th.

[T3]

Pwng and SS go to the gate?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

My reads are:
kyo
Peng/skitter
SS
unwnd
implosion
Dunn/catboi

There are scumreads being thrown at skitter and I'm not sure why.

I kinda feel she's too entangled in unwnd and catboi. I dont think it's likely that they are all 3 scum here, but i feel like if I'm wrong about one or both of unwnd and catboi that she makes sense. I'll probably have to reread today's flurry of posts a few times to digest it all, and might feel different after. I just hesitate to put these 3 in different areas, but deep down I think it's hard for all 3 of them to be scum so maybe Wall is good for skitter and the 3rd scum is like, S_S or implosion maybe. Feel like it's gonna be hard to get an 0-2-1 split.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Pwng and SS go to the gate?

I believe the mod missed that unwnd already went to gate

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Holding you to not hammer then, because I agree I want more people to chime in

VOTE: Gate

[T3]

Pwng and SS go to the gate?

I believe the mod missed that unwnd already went to gate

[Dannflor]

Fixed!

[T3]

I want implosion in there to make the possibility of scum have 2 in a room.

[implosion]

Well today got extremely away from me.

Catching up.

[implosion]

I dont know what the scum motivation is but, again, the fact that you keep relying on 'oh but why would scum do this' is scummy, as it feels like you're depending on the fact that scum wouldnt do this to be townread
It, again, sounds like you're scum who purposefully did this to play that card

This sort of gets at how I'm feeling about catboi's play but not entirely. I think I'm just not entirely convinced the stances are genuine in general. The read on skitter feels like, I mean I kind of feel like they're doing exactly what they're accusing skitter of with starting at a conclusion and finding stuff to justify it.

catboi's play around the keep feels like either planning to do a swap to change things or just accepting that they're being somewhat scumread and that they're okay losing the keep since it's the easiest place for town to win.

[implosion]

Off the top of my head, Peng and Skitter in Gate, Implosion, unwnd, and S_S in Wall. Does that sound like a good formation? @Implosion, if you're town, are you comfortable with me-Peng-skitter?

I would have been in principle but having darted around i did see this is no longer a thing lol

I probably would have been happier with you-me-penguin if i could get you to trust me. I still have like some intrinsic paranoia about skitter although I do only see reasons to think she's town so far. Just like, last time I played a 9p setup with 3 scum some things went horribly awry with my reads early and idk how much *exactly* i trust myself and i'm not like, saying i'm going to flip on skitter unless like i'm put in a place with two of my townreads or something. Idk I should probably not go too deep into how my read on her feels right now just bc it could be useful info for scum thinking about swaps.

oh and i see you actually suggested that at the gate at the bottom of the page too, neat

[implosion]

Ugh i'm having paranoid thoughts of like unwnd/ssbm
I think we may have just lost the potential for 2/1 at the wall

Like, unwnd/ssbm both scum? Is the idea that they're going to make it look like scum is being swapped out of the wall when it's actually being swapped into the wall, or something?

[implosion]

I just ask bc the natural impetus should be for scum to avoid going to the same place since the ideal for them is 1-1-1, so I don't see the motivation for unwnd jumping into gate unless it's something weird like that. though it could make sense since we were saying we want to group scum at wall

[implosion]

I think the best thing for me at this point would, incredibly, be a me-skitter-penguin thunderdome at wall and S_S going to gate. That should also have a decent shot at 2 scum in one place, at least I think it still gives a decent shot of an all town wall.

That said I'm skeptical at this point that we're going to be able to read very accurately into a swap. I guess we'll see if we can once it happens. And also we should wait until S_S can contribute.

[implosion]

gosh we still have almost a week in deadline X_X

i'll be V/LA for like, a week and a half to 2 weeks starting Wednesday btw. I should still be keeping up and posting probably at a similar rate to how I am now, just will literally be on vacation and will potentially be too pooped to post like Wednesday-Thursday bc taking a redeye Wednesday night.

[skitter30]

Ugh i'm having paranoid thoughts of like unwnd/ssbm
I think we may have just lost the potential for 2/1 at the wall

Like, unwnd/ssbm both scum? Is the idea that they're going to make it look like scum is being swapped out of the wall when it's actually being swapped into the wall, or something?

Idk, it was the first thought that i had when unwnd took gate

Also your read on me is sort of weird + i'm still not getting Good vibes from you

[skitter30]

Also why do you want a me/you/penguin thunderdome

[catboi]

I think it was more to prevent scum being forced to the wall

How's that fit with your theory of me being scum, anyway?

[catboi]

Having been teamed with unwnd before, I was able to spot him as scum relatively easily in a newbie game afterwards. That game had the advantage of me having an incredibly strong legacy scumread on the slot he replaced into, and him not particularly trying his hardest, so I wouldn't call it a bulletproof read, but so far here he simply hasn't been ticking the boxes I'd expect from him as scum. As scum he tends to post for the sake of posting without any sensible conclusions to what he's saying.

[catboi]

Off the top of my head, Peng and Skitter in Gate, Implosion, unwnd, and S_S in Wall. Does that sound like a good formation? @Implosion, if you're town, are you comfortable with me-Peng-skitter?

I would have been in principle but having darted around i did see this is no longer a thing lol

I probably would have been happier with you-me-penguin if i could get you to trust me. I still have like some intrinsic paranoia about skitter although I do only see reasons to think she's town so far. Just like, last time I played a 9p setup with 3 scum some things went horribly awry with my reads early and idk how much *exactly* i trust myself and i'm not like, saying i'm going to flip on skitter unless like i'm put in a place with two of my townreads or something. Idk I should probably not go too deep into how my read on her feels right now just bc it could be useful info for scum thinking about swaps.

oh and i see you actually suggested that at the gate at the bottom of the page too, neat

Speaking of words for the sake of words, this feels like fake scum indecisiveness.

[implosion]

Also why do you want a me/you/penguin thunderdome

I think it’s the most likely remaining shot at 3 town in one place (at least I think you’re both above random as town and the last person is s_s who is basically at random for town, so maybe I’ll prefer him if he actually does look town after contributing)

If it’s eg unwnd s_s and catboi it could explain unwnds jump as the last way scum can likely get 1-1-1 since s_s might wind up just default assigned to wall with everyone else joining gate and keep

[implosion]

Thought: if it winds up that the current keep turns out to be T3/catboi town and Dunnstral scum, it's probably a good idea to rethink reads more broadly because it's possible Dunn went there because he considered the keep a losing ploy based on what catboi had been saying and figured that his best bet was to tank himself and win both other areas (which would imply he thinks the other two scum can win their areas)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Thought: if it winds up that the current keep turns out to be T3/catboi town and Dunnstral scum, it's probably a good idea to rethink reads more broadly because it's possible Dunn went there because he considered the keep a losing ploy based on what catboi had been saying and figured that his best bet was to tank himself and win both other areas (which would imply he thinks the other two scum can win their areas)

Yes agreed, but also scum!Dunn points to scum!unwnd based on the timing of movements I think. I dont think scum!Dunn wants to end up in keep, so his team wants 1-1-1 to swap him out of keep for someone like scum!penguin who is currently TRed and looks likely to be placed away from unwnd if consensus is followed.

Independently of Dunn's hammer and alignment though, I think moving to Gate by unwnd is scummy given that a location had been hammered

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Well, agreed that scum!Dunn means a broader rethinking of reads. I dont think scum intentionally tank any locations in this setup

[T3]

Depending on the swap but if catboi and Dunn are 1 town and 1 scum Keep should always be flipped first.