Open 820: The Siege of Aurelia — Game Over!

[skitter30]

UNVOTE:
Sure

[ssbm_Kyouko]

If I had to explain my gut read:

I think scum generally tries to use me for TvT when I'm obvtowning, so that was part of mystrategy in storming the Gate this game, to bait scum into ICing me. If I were scum!you I would put myself into Gate with Implosion so that Kyouko would hammer Implosion, because I think my posting D1 indicates I would go that direction.

--

I also think if Skitter went to Gate that unwnd and implosion would have been swapped and we would have the same configuration, so I think that implosion and skitter's hemming and hawing over the Gate is NAI for both players.

This also explains why unwnd went to Gate after Wall was full - it puts Implosion and Skitter as likely to go to different locations, so that regardless of the situation, scum!unwnd gets removed from Gate and IC!Kyouko picks between skitter and implosion.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think scum generally tries to use me for TvT when I'm obvtowning, so that was part of mystrategy in storming the Gate this game, to bait scum into ICing me. If I were scum!you I would put myself into Gate with Implosion so that Kyouko would hammer Implosion, because I think my posting D1 indicates I would go that direction.

Editing for clarity:

If I were scum!skitter:

I would try to end up in gate with IC!Kyouko and town!implosion.

Because I (Now I'm speaking from my POV again, not scum!skitter's) think that my own posting would be interpreted by scum as leaning towards hammering Implosion over Skitter if forced to choose.

[Something_Smart]

- i townread penguin's anger at implo's hammer (dunno why he would be mad that his partner did that as presumably that would be a good outcome for them)

You don't think he would do that to distance?

Maybe that's not how PP operates, but that's the kind of thing I'd expect from a setup where scum can't directly bus.

[Something_Smart]

I do townread PP on the balance, but I think if he's scum then implosion probably is as well. That seems more likely than him blowing up at a townie, especially since if he were with skitter he'd be genuinely upset that skitter couldn't go gate and he wouldn't want to telegraph that.

[unwnd]

Everyone scumreads me so I'm just gonna go out on a limb and vote the person I think is scum in my pool.

VOTE: something_smart

If pp quick hammers you can evaluate it. I think implo is who I'd vote in other pool

Still townread catboi

[PenguinPower]

here

[unwnd]

Pp you have a free point if im wrong

Don't delay

[PenguinPower]

Sorry - I should have said I see your vote. Not hammering.

[unwnd]

Breaking my heart

Do you play with your food?

[PenguinPower]

Usually.

[unwnd]

I'm not changing my vote and want to go first so Kyouko can get off her dumbshit solve and other potential townies.

But if you enjoy seeing me writhe that's understandable too

[PenguinPower]

Kinda just want to wrap my head around everything and think for a bit. I have a bird brain - cut me some slack.

[Something_Smart]

Well that makes things somewhat easier.

Really no reason to crossvote until PP says, on the off-chance unwnd wanted to self-hammer.

[unwnd]

I did that then got frustrated reading Kyouko's posts so I'm doing it a bit out of spite

[Something_Smart]

That really does look like a desperation play, too. The timing doesn't make any sense from town.

[PenguinPower]

I mean no but it feels like he has some ulterior motive for wanting me to go there

I have a response to this, but I probably shouldn't say it. Remind me on D2.

Did you respond to this?

[unwnd]

Skitters read on me is not right either but like

I believe it, i guess

I don't think this is the game where i have a ton of impact, so I'm going out like a soldier

[Something_Smart]

That was 674, yeah.

[skitter30]

I think scum generally tries to use me for TvT when I'm obvtowning, so that was part of mystrategy in storming the Gate this game, to bait scum into ICing me. If I were scum!you I would put myself into Gate with Implosion so that Kyouko would hammer Implosion, because I think my posting D1 indicates I would go that direction.

Editing for clarity:

If I were scum!skitter:

I would try to end up in gate with IC!Kyouko and town!implosion.

Because I (Now I'm speaking from my POV again, not scum!skitter's) think that my own posting would be interpreted by scum as leaning towards hammering Implosion over Skitter if forced to choose.

I'm p sure that i would not be that confident that scum-me wins this 1v1 with u as ic
Like its possible i decide to force it anyways but i sont think this would be my optimal outcome

I'm having a hard time modeling what scum-me would have done here actually, i dont feel like i have enuf info (i.e. who the other scum are) to be able to answer this

I'm also not sure why i would feel the need to force the 1v1 at gate, or to make you ic, and i also think that if i'm scum and have the ability i probably swap you out of gate altogether and make like t3 ic or something?

I dont know. I'm having a hard time thinking through this because i keep going: well what if i was scum with inplosion? Well what if instead i was scum with ss? And the answers sprt of change depending on the exact scenario. And i have to walk through all the scenarios to figutr out what i would do and it's hard to keep track of all the moving parts

[skitter30]

- i townread penguin's anger at implo's hammer (dunno why he would be mad that his partner did that as presumably that would be a good outcome for them)

You don't think he would do that to distance?

Maybe that's not how PP operates, but that's the kind of thing I'd expect from a setup where scum can't directly bus.

I'm p sure the anger was genuine and believe this question is now moot as well

[Something_Smart]

Well yeah, lol. As I said I was leaning that way before unwnd made it easy.

[skitter30]

I'm very confused abt what scum were thinking

[implosion]

My general take on things right now in wall: I think it's very, very likely that unwnd is town (so S_S is scum now that Penguin is clear, I was leaning that way somewhat strongly but not surely). If unwnd is scum then almost nothing about yesterday/the swap makes sense; in particular, consider things from scum's point of view. Now that we see no swap from keep, we know that the keep was 1 scum before the swap, meaning that scum were probably trying to avoid 2-1-0. If unwnd is scum, I don't see why skitter plays yesterday the way she did, and I don't really see why they'd make that swap. In that world, if T3 is town then scum would have to be semi-abandoning keep based on catboi's rhetoric, and they'd have to be doing something along the lines of thinking skitter wins the 1v1 vs me and that unwnd wins vs penguin and S_S and it just seems worse than swapping like, T3 with me or ssbm and then confirming him. Or swapping catboi somewhere, or doing something like that.

If unwnd is town then things make pretty simple sense; scum had to swap one of skitter/S_S with one of me/unwnd/ssbm. Basically they get to pick what the 1v1 here will be and who will go to the wall with Penguin. They probably chose to IC ssbm because she was the most widely townread, with the hopes that both me/unwnd get mislimmed. If they thought that they had to win both of those then they were probably afraid to put S_S at gate, so it's a matter of who skitter 1v1s and I could imagine them thinking either way would be easier at that point. If skitter/S_S are scum then their play yesterday makes sense, with skitter angling for gate and S_S taking wall to let her go to gate bc they'd rather have her at gate than him and that would leave them with more flexibility with their swap.

For keep I think the world in which T3 is scum changes things a lot in terms of scum's motivations in the case that unwnd is scum but I also just don't think we're in that world on T3's play.

[Dannflor]

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