Open 820: The Siege of Aurelia — Game Over!

[PenguinPower]

Dunn has done nothing all game. I would be insane to vote him. communism scummily tried to force his way into keep. I would be insane to vote him.

Not technically true given he voted to go to the keep, but maybe we can hush on the keep for now.

Unwnd or s_s?

[T3]

My gut instinct is that unwnd's reactions to skitter do not feel aligned, as they haven't all game.

I don’t agree atm. Pls explain when you can.

Postcount.

[PenguinPower]

Post count is a horrible basis and you aren’t catboi so kindly close it.

[T3]

Dunn has done nothing all game. I would be insane to vote him. communism scummily tried to force his way into keep. I would be insane to vote him.

Not technically true given he voted to go to the keep, but maybe we can hush on the keep for now.

Unwnd or s_s?

By play unwnd. By mech SS?

[T3]

Post count is a horrible basis and you aren’t catboi so kindly close it.

I'm talking about Dunn doing nothing.

[PenguinPower]

Not sure why you chose to quote my post then.

[PenguinPower]

By play unwnd. By mech SS?

Pick one.

[T3]

By play unwnd. By mech SS?

Pick one.

unwnd because scum implosion could have done that to confused us I guess?

[unwnd]

Penguin I'm town here and I'm still hoping you're not trolling me because I'd be upset.

[PenguinPower]

Penguin I'm town here and I'm still hoping you're not trolling me because I'd be upset.

I mean - you can repeat that as much as you want but it doesn’t help me.

[unwnd]

I legitimately don't know what else to tell you. It's hard to navigate and prove my innocence when I feel like I haven't done anything wrong

[T3]

Hard to explain but unwnd reaction feels genuinely emotional to me.

[PenguinPower]

I don’t actually need you to tell me anything (your option to respond to 796 but you don’t have to). I’m eliciting opinions from others right now.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Again, not trying to be that guy but

Have you ever considered that scum was OK clearing you because your reads fucking suck and you serve no threat?

Have you considered that's all part of my plan? I know I have shaky reads, and that I flip-flop a lot, but I often get there in the end, because my strengths are in looking at a situation from every angle and figuring out what aligns. I thought I would have a good chance at getting ICed and being the objective of the scum team's swap, and it worked out perfectly for me. And now town is either up 1-0 or guaranteed 1-1 with finals in the Keep, so I'm happy with how I'm playing, thanks.

I'm not sure he's expecting to, like, win this honestly

You're right but you have painted me in the wrong mindset

I'm town and it's essential you flip wall first so Kyouko can be humbled

You being town does not humble me. You must die regardless of your alignment, for the sake of the town. I'm pretty sure you're just scum here though and are feeling a bit sour I caught you out of RVS. We'll see though.

ssbm, I don't understand your plan with limming unwnd; what do you do next based on a town flip vs a scum flip? I thought you determined that wasn't actually a good idea?

No, I did not determine it wasn't a good idea. Scum unwnd can be partnered with either of you, but if unwnd is town, you are mechanically proven to be scum, and I will hammer you after skitter has had time to contemplate the keep. The good news if you are town is you know unwnd will flip scum and you wont be turbo hammered. The proof:

Here are the 3 possible scum pairings (ignoring Keep) depending on the pre-swap scum distribution at G-K-W.

Town!skitter:
2-1-0: [unwnd, implosion]
1-1-1: [penguin/s_s, implosion]

Town!implosion:
2-1-0: [skitter, unwnd]

Town!implosion knows we were 2-1-0 before the swap so we can eliminate the 1-1-1 in his section.

Town!unwnd can look at the above poe and know that he cannot scum with skitter, which leaves no possibilities for town!implosion and guarantees scum!implosion on a town!unwnd flip.

If we kill unwnd at Wall:
town!unwnd: we lose wall but auto-win Gate because he's town and we know his town POV locks implosion in as scum, resulting in 1-1 ending at Keep.

Scum!unwnd: we win Wall and dont know who is scum at Gate. Town is up 1-0 and we solve from there.

Any objections? Any holes in this logic?

[unwnd]

I am a very spiteful town player and will do things just to prove a point.

When T3/Kyouko both started to engage the thread as if I were scum for basically unilateral reasons it caused an uptick. T3 has no fucking idea how I play scum and certainly Kyouko doesn't.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Wait a minute, I think I might have made a mistake in 710

[T3]

Pseudo-vote: SS

All logic is telling me unwnd is probably scum but like... I guess when you kind of 'know' someone is town.

[unwnd]

You wanna know what's good for town Kyouko? Not trying to play leader and act like you know. Act like you're able to lead us to victory and that my flip is good for town. You know what's good for town? Eliminating mafia. Not a horrible concept to grasp yet you both accept you have shaky reads

but

it's all part of your ingenious plan so my death should happen assuredly. Oh but but nevermind that you're probably still scum welll haahhahahaha

You're in for

such a rude awakening

[unwnd]

Penguin says he isn't trolling me, that tells me I made the right decision. That's pretty much all I had to do

[T3]

This reminds me of the time I mislimmed bloodhail in that micro. Genuine emotional response but scummy af

[catboi]

Catboi - should I vote unwnd or s_s?

I don't have a clue right now. Easy answers are for scum. I wouldn't make a decision in ELO without giving the game reread, and that's how I'm treating this situation.

unwnd felt fairly different from his scumgame I've seen twice now, but he also hadn't been coming across as townie early on. I eventually felt like him intentionally holding back wasn't the approach he'd take as scum. The quick vote is fairly surprising from a town POV because he doesn't strike me as the type who would vote impulsively. Became kind of concerned his approach toward me was pockety, but at the same time I'm not sure why he'd bother here.

something_smart is really difficult to call because he wasn't here for most of the game. I'm not sure there's a lot to read him off of, and if he is scum I don't think there's going to be any really telling partner interactions. I guess I'm concerned that he hasn't said anything at all that came across towny to me.

These are basically just the impressions i'm starting with right now. Like I said, I need to reread.

My gut instinct is that unwnd's reactions to skitter do not feel aligned, as they haven't all game.

I don’t agree atm. Pls explain when you can.

My explanation was what you cut out of the post. That's off gut to how they were acting in recent pages. I do admit the 496 you quoted looks strange, though.

[PenguinPower]

Like I said, I need to reread.

I can wait, but I appreciate the initial thoughts.

[implosion]

Implo do you have a scum game I can read of yours?

My most recent is a serial killer game from 5 months ago:
viewtopic.php?f=51&t=85788

I'm kinda struggling to find an actual scumgame and can't remember when my last one was, I can keep looking if you want an actual mafia one but suffice to say it won't be particularly recent unless I'm forgetting something (and I haven't played at all in months so).

---

I don't find S_S's 774 especially convincing; I think S_S-town should be able to think another level or two past "the swap is just WIFOM". I feel like if S_S is town then there are so many other swaps that just seem to simply make more sense. WIFOM doesn't mean scum are picking a swap arbitrarily in a vacuum and the justification in that post doesn't really compare other possible swaps or like, consider the context that scum would have had when choosing a swap from how d1 went down.

But, then, logically, why does skitter hesitate on going to the gate, when that would theoretically be their optimum grouping, allowing you to ninja her?

I like the way this is written and yet there's a part of me that's afraid of the confidence you already have in such a narrative.

skitter hesitates going to the gate because of her playstyle. My read on her is she's not the kind of player who would do something "anti-town" like picking a location before everything is like, fully-everyone-100%-in-agreement-decided as either alignment. I think her as town wouldn't do that and her as scum has to imitate that.

My confidence comes from this being really the only way I have to make sense of the game. Like, I have enough specific combinations of info from my perspective to rule out a lot of stuff with a couple of heuristic assumptions.

Wait a minute, I think I might have made a mistake in 710

yes, and for some reason i thought you'd seen it already (i think I misinterpreted 719).

you say skitter+unwnd would have been 2-1-0 but it would have been 1-1-1 pre-swap. skitter can be scum with unwnd town and a pre-swap 2-1-0 distribution w 2 scum (skitter + s_s) in wall and 0 in gate.

I'm also starting to think Dunn is the scum at keep. Or at least I feel like the game probably makes more sense that way.

[implosion]

I'm pretty sure the way this setup is designed, it is *never* possible to mathematically deduce information in one location based on the flip in another location. I think it's not possible to deduce anything mathematically at all, actually.

[PenguinPower]

Doesn’t have to be mathematical to be useful.