FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over

[Servant Alter Ego]

I guess you can say that assassin was content to let us hang back and claw each other's eyes out on days 3 and 4 while not actually proactively solving but that's really only with the benefit of hindsight

[Servant Alter Ego]

I'm not sure why the neighborhood invite has an accept/decline to begin with. I took it at face value at the time but it doesn't really make sense for a protown ability to have that option at all. I'm guessing it does something other than what he told us it does

[Servant Alter Ego]

I am loathe to reconsider my town reads on both Caster and Ruler.

I read for Saber's posts to see the interactions between them and Moon Caster and I find it largely a wash. Posts 235 and 472 gave me a sense of TMI. Can one buddy from just a naked reads list without direct interaction? That would also not be my first conclusion say, were my name up there. I'd be thinking "hey maybe this person has some cool and interesting things to say". The follow-up reads list has but one scum read, and it is Moon. It does not say why Moon is scummy in any detail.

The vote of Moon Caster, however, is well placed: 3rd on a budding wagon. The first half of the reason behind it is plausible enough and shared by others (personally not me), unsure about the "throw mud and see what sticks part". Maybe? 238 I suppose qualifies.

I'm still likely to vote Saber. However, I'm once again having trouble seeing anyone else coming close to being particularly scummy. A problem for another day perhaps.

This is kind of, ahh...the reasoning is very 'just-so', like it's too exact and tidy a conclusion, reached at the exact moment momentum against saber becomes unassailable

I feel like even writing this I'm reaching but I have to say something

[Servant Caster]

maybe accepting lets him kill the person who accepts it?

[Servant Caster]

like i dont understand why a loyal neighborizer even has an acceptance function built in

[Servant Alter Ego]

I didn't want to vote avenger, I didn't want to vote ider until I was convinced we were in autowin. I've been trying to actually find town the past few days rather than just eliminate whoever

[Cabd]

With 4 servants alive, it will take 3 votes to burn a servant.

Alter Ego (2): Assassin, Lancer
Assassin (2): Alter Ego, Caster
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Deadline: (expired on 2021-08-08 15:38:44)

[Cabd]

Atalanta watched with no little amusement as four Servants were reduced to stunned silence, pleading, and confusion.

Maybe there was something to this modern pentathlon event after all.

Despite the combined weight of history or mythology or legend or sheer life competence, the four horses were clearly getting the better of the Servants. One wouldn't trot, one wouldn't jump, one wouldn't even let their partner mount, and one was stubbornly stationed under Atalanta's balcony. That might have had something to do with Nero's squealing and petting the dumb brute. And also her seemingly endless supply of carrots.

Atalanta gave a piercing whistle. The three horses with riders promptly bucked them off and joined their compatriot in a full out gallop for the doors. At least they were satisfied with their performance.

"All right, you four. There's clearly no winners or losers or even scorers here. Go get showers, or dust baths, or whatever will rinse that stink of horses off you, and report back here. We'll have to try something else." Atalanta rubber her forehead. This was turning into quite a long Festival.

"We could have Servant Idol! The Final Four is the best part, and then there could be home timeline visits and..."

"No Nero. Even if they choose rhythmic gymnastics as their next sport." Atalanta paused at the thought. "Then again, we can discuss it if they go there."

[Cabd]

No Elimination was reached before deadline.

Night 5 begins now, and will last 48 hours, or until every living player has privately indicated to me that they wish to have me process a fast night, whichever occurs first.

(expired on 2021-08-10 16:03:18)

[Cabd]

At work, flavor and flip this evening.

[penguin_alien]

Most of the spectators hadn't moved from their seats, anticipating a quick wash and return. As the time dragged on, the muttering began. Where were the Servant contestants?

Finally figures emerged. Three humanoid, one...equine?

The same horse Nero had befriended (well, bribed, but some things aren't said to an emperor) trotted up to the balcony with a Golden Apple in her mouth. She blinked innocently as she dropped it over the railing, where it rolled to rest at Atalanta's feet. Self-appointed mission complete, Servant Caster's erstwhile horse cantered her own personal victory lap around the arena before vanishing under the stands once more.

"I suppose Anastasia didn't survive this time either. Well, I appreciate not spending even more energy to retrieve this apple, but someone certainly does have a lot to answer for." Atalanta shook her head. "Now, how shall we end this Festival? Assuming you lot are ready to have a final reckoning?"

[penguin_alien]

Servant Caster, Anastasia, as played by Anastasia:

Spoiler:

Class, Faction, Player Name, and True Name

Caster
Town
Anastasia
Anastasia

Alignment, Gender, Attribute, and Traits

Neutral-Neutral
Female
Human
Humanoid, Servant, Female, Weak to Enuma Elish

skills

Mystic Eyes of Penetration D ~ You may use this skill three times during the game, at night. When you do, target another player. You will learn both halves of that player's alignment. (Your own result would be Neutral Neutral, for example)

Frigid Charisma B ~ Once during the game, at night, you may use this skill. When you do, target another player. You will gain a neighborhood with them. Your target will be given the ability to add one additional person the following day phase.

Schwipsig B ~ Once during the game, at night, you may use this skill. If you do, you will roleblock a player. You will gain * if you prevented an action using this skill.

Noble Phantasm

Viy Viy Viy (Galloping Stare of the All-Seeing Ghastly Eyeballs) ~ ***** ~You may activate this Noble Phantasm at night. If you do, target two other players. Both will be unable to use skills until the end of the following day phase.

[penguin_alien]

With 3 servants alive, it will take 2 votes to burn a servant.

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Deadline: (expired on 2021-08-17 22:02:30)

[Servant Alter Ego]

I got confirmation over the night that the charm I was given would not actually stop a roleblock. The best guess I was able to come up with was that either assassin had a different charm he gave to himself that DID stop a roleblock, or that having the charm out on me gives him benefits while it's active. I realize this all sounds like half-baked conspiracy theories but that's all I have to offer at this point, barring unfortunate miscommunication on a night action target. I went back and checked Archer's role PM and ISO and while I think he was crumbing a jailkeep on Avenger, I can't say for sure.

As for actual arguments based on play...I'll try to make this brief. I don't see a point in overwhelming with words at this stage in the game.

He seemed to get the wind taken out of his sails by Berserker surpassing him and Saber in popularity and I think a little crack shows through of him being unhappy with town winning the vote. The first paragraph here subtly digs at Saber's "competence" while still trying to prop them up as town. Possible there was some disagreement behind the scenes with regard to both of them gunning for the master upgrade. I put too much stock into the early competing claims when that likely was an unplanned complication.

Every time he moves onto a scum wagon, he feels the need to over-justify it. Even though he didn't vote Foreigner, his concession that Foreigner is

possibly

scum is over-justified By contrast, his reasoning for his incorrect votes is much weaker, much more shallow. Most of the time, he resorts to hanging back and fence-sitting.


Assassin use of his NP doesn't really make sense from a town POV. What I got stuck on yesterday was not understanding why he'd play this way as scum. But the thing is, why did he out it at all on day 4 as town? It would have made more sense to stay hidden and 'clear' someone using the power surreptitiously. But that's the thing. It was all for show. If he was actually concerned about being nightkilled, why mention it at all? The way he spoke was done with the idea of

looking

town, not actually coming from a town thought process. Same as how from day 3 on he kept saying "I have a hard time seeing anyone as scum" but then coming back and voting town with no alsysis in between. How he went from "until I could make a plausible non-mechanical case for Alter being scum I would not feel comfortable voting there" to voting me with no actual discussion, simply that I had not sufficiently scumcased anyone else - as if I could, in my circumstances. That about summarizes assassin's play - superficially nice looking on the surface but mostly just riding along on what others say, no original solving that he puts forward himself.

[Servant Alter Ego]

I know I shouldn't even admit this, but I edited that twice overnight and still don't feel great about it. If what I wrote there isn't enough to convince you over the mechanical evidence, just vote me now and get it over with. I don't want this dragged out another week, there's nothing more I can do. I wouldn't blame you for being wrong here.

VOTE: Assassin

[Servant Alter Ego]

Not really surprised Caster died here.

[Servant Lancer]

fml I hate lylo.

I'm working tonight and busy tomorrow. haven't been lylo hammer in a while but I hope I will do this game justice.

[Servant Assassin]

I'll devote time to this tomorrow and respond.

VOTE: Alter Ego

I don't think this will turn into a hard decision Lancer. Or at least, it should not. A healthy amount of paranoia is fine, but there is overwhelming evidence - from both mechanics and my play - that ought to lead you to vote for alter.

[penguin_alien]

With 3 servants alive, it will take 2 votes to burn a servant.

Assassin (1): Alter Ego
Alter Ego (1): Assassin

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Deadline: (expired on 2021-08-17 22:02:30)

[Servant Assassin]

2738 covers a decent swathe of the game, and contains a good amount of spin so I'll be neutralizing that where it appears.

At the time of post 320 I was pretty ok with Saber becoming master. And I also thought that despite the very early game run of votes that came saber's way, I had a fair chance to become master myself anyway. Basically at that point I thought the game state was favorable to town the way things were going. Berserker's bid at that point was annoying because 1) I suspected he did not have as strong a power as me/saber if town, 2) I had a feeling I would never surpass their charisma, and 3) that was the kind of adaption I would expect scum to make if the gamestate looked to be unfavorable to them. I was not trying to hide my annoyance.

I think its clear in the 2nd part of the first paragraph of 2738 that Alter cannot possibly believe what he says. My derision towards saber wasn't subtle, and to use that as a reason to suppose there was a behind the scenes antagonism is off the mark too as previously I treated saber amicably. Moreover as we've seen from the copious bussing, and frankly early master bid from saber of what appears to be scum's weakest role, I'd say scum have been playing fairly deliberately.

As far as the commentary on my votes are concerned... I'm more amused than anything that barely a few sentences of reasoning constitutes over-justification. It's a rather facile argument and doesn't even include the longer post devoted to analyzing saber pre-moon cancer flip. As far as the last votes on Avenger and Rider are concerned, the context of each was determined by POE. Avenger was the only one at the time that didn't look incredibly town and was not cleared. That vote didn't need any particular justification and I think that was understood by everyone. In fact, Alter's repeated assertions that they thought avenger was town, and that that thought was a point in their favor is one of the two substantially scummy things alter has ever done this game. There was not a sufficient reason to ever think Avenger could not be scum. As for rider's vote and the asscioated accusation of fence sitting accompanying it, I think I was not alone in feeling deep uncertainty. I also could not find anything to hold against him and present as some material to constitute a case.

As far as my NP is concerned, perhaps I did not play it optiminally. I think maybe I did implusively out it without thinking it through. But I did have a useful power scum knew existed, I was cleared so I easily could have been a NK target, and for whatever reason, Beast was discounting that clear at the start of day. And despite whatever you say about optimal play should have been for a town mindset, the claim resulted in a probable mis-elimination instead getting killed. And mind you, scum in my position could so easily have just claimed that they didn't have the stars required to use it, and got back to back miseliminations if Lancer died instead of beast.

[Servant Lancer]

okay. I'm here, I'm gonna try to do a reread, I don't know how far I'll get tonight but I am going to do my best to at least feel like I did my due diligence if I choose wrong.

[Cabd]

With 3 servants alive, it will take 2 votes to burn a servant.

Assassin (1): Alter Ego
Alter Ego (1): Assassin

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Deadline: (expired on 2021-08-17 22:02:30)

[Servant Alter Ego]

I'm here, not going to get dragged into a back and forth argument with scum, will answer Lancer directly if they have any questions.

[Servant Lancer]

okay these are for assassin.

1. can you explain why you were townreading saber on D1?

Spoiler: relevant quotes

I have now actually had time to read the thread more closely than skimming.

I think it's pretty clear archer is town. Caster and Saber each are relatively towny. I do think a cop shot which would 100% go off (there is literally no way for scum counterplay) to start is just the best option, but if it isn't going to be me, saber is a fine 2nd choice.

I have yet to see anything that comes off as scummy, though beserker's appeal to cabd and the resultant thought to elect a charismatic town leader was off-putting.

@Berserker, Your townreads focus a fair amount on who agrees with you. I find this a significant problem for thread health. A good master/stump cannot be vulnerable to buddying. Every stump game town wins without toxic cheating replaceouts won because of the fact the stumps were open to criticism by town. I'm worried that is not the case because of your townread rational, particularly on Archer and Alter.

I'm just going to use this post as springboard and then segue into a broad holistic overview of my thoughts on various subjects this game.

Firstly with regard to the above, I am not worried whatsoever about berserkers ability to play a town leader role. He's a reasonable player, he does not ignore people, he's diligent, and I'm betting experienced. After his last reads wall any reservations I had as to his alignment are gone. Frankly Saber, as I've seen more of your play, I've grown more skeptical not of your alignment, which I think is still likely town, but of your ability to play competently in general and even to use your role effectively. You have now, and earlier in different contexts, brought up the concept of scum buddying as a tactic to watch out for. I do not think this is something to be overly concerned about this game even if it is happening somewhere, and with regards to berserker, I do think the man is capable of read fluidity. I do not think his top town reads have undergone much change (aside from maybe caster) but I can sense it with how he approaches my own read which looks like its taking more than one curve.

Now were I master, I might have this problem. Whether gained through buddying or not, my confident town reads tend to stick forever once I've made them, and I am extremely stubborn. I still just cannot imagine Caster/Alter-ego/Ruler being scum. Personally the fact that Ruler appears further down most people's reads lists is simply shocking to me. On the flip side, I am having a fair amount of difficulty establishing a solid scum read. The candidates I've thought about this game that remain for me now, namely, lancer/foreigner/avenger/moon caster have not really done anything that is explicitly scummy, that is, something that I can go ahead and say to myself "town never does this," or even "scum will do this a lot more than town would". A few of those names appear in other people's scum reads, but I simply do not have that same decisiveness. Foreigner's a good example of this. The points berserker makes about him to call him lean town, are not things to call someone town over. When I get to Ruler's retort, I think it goes too far in the opposite direction. of the three posts discussed, 162 is null, 171 is definitely a potshot which I don't like but can't say if it's scummy, and 388 is fine to me if a bit pithy. My uncertainty about foreigner doesn't factor in these posts anyway, its how they approach caster, which I find to be on the slight scummy side.

As for the talk around scum's approach to master candidates and resistance therein... I don't really think scum has much of a plan from the empirical evidence. Basically their chance came and went within the first six pages. If people think they go for the mechanic angle, I really don't think saber was their best bet. Perhaps they sold themselves as able to pull it off in their scum PT but kinda doubt it. If anything I'd have thought berserker's method would be more like what scum might try if they tired at all, as it was a bit of a strongman job. The lack of polarization on the choices is unfortunate. There very well might have been some info to be gleaned but I don't consider that a major loss, or a particularly strong worry as some here might.

2.

Spoiler: relevant quotes

As for Beserker's entry, I mean... I can't say it's a particularly bad choice, I mildly townread him. Not thrilled its coming in this late when I feel the opportunity should have more organically happened when me and saber made our bids. The only other option at this point I see town possibly consolidating around is lancer, should he choose to make it.

did you mention me because I was someone that you would support getting master? if no, why mention me if you were still scumreading me? if yes, why?

[Servant Lancer]

god my anxiety is through the roof. I am going to be so happy to put myself out of my misery.