Open 822: Popcorn Mafia - Game Over!!

[Pavowski]

First thing I'm doing in my review this morning is reading T3.

If I had to draw conclusions from T3's iso, I'd say it leads me to think Hockey is town, Hectic is town, and Enchant is scum.

The very first thing T3 tries to do in game is clear Enchant. He hard townreads the slot early (11, 16, 27) and then doesn't make too many comments about it thereafter (townreads him again in 299). Townreading Enchant is hard to do in this game (imo) and he never justifies it.

He defends Hockey pretty consistently in the thread, listing him as a top-tier townread just about every time. I'm not saying it's a pocket attempt (though there could be some of that - 137 f'rex), rather that it could be whiteknighting to gain towncred. It's not super-obvious WKing though, as Hockey wasn't under tons of pressure. Townreading Hockey rings more genuine than townreading Enchant because he's able to actually make the case for Hockey. It's possible Hockey and T3 are teamed and the interactions between them are theatre (Hockey bristles at a pocket attempt in 233) but it just doesn't strike me that way.

As for Hectic, his scumread of that slot is tied up with his defense of Hockey and I'll grant I might be doing mental gymnastics to TR them both, but this is how I get there:

T3 knows all of our alignments.
If I accept that Hockey is town, and T3 is gonna defend that slot for cred, then
Pushing town!Hectic for pushing town!Hockey becomes a credible ploy for a mis-shoot on Hectic with a defense after the fact of "well, he was attacking somebody who's basically locktown for me"
And it's possible T3 comes out of a mis-shoot on Hectic looking not particularly scummy in that hypothetical.

(I am realizing, after typing this, that this line of thought leans toward town!Hectic even if Hockey were scum.)

Consider also that as the pressure mounts and T3 looks like a likelier shot, he locks in and doubles down on scum!Hectic. I don't think scum, in a position under pressure, is just gonna try to shunt pressure off onto another scum slot. Worst case: it doesn't work and nothing is achieved, best case: it buys them a day and we get to weigh whether their arguments were genuine or whether they *knew* scum was scum, which keeps them under focus.

It can be dangerous to try and sort out when scum is lying and when they're being truthful because it benefits them, so I'm not calling the game based on this, but these are my strongest gutreads from T3.

[Pavowski]

Obviously I'm leaving out the other slots; I don't think I can draw any strong conclusions on them from his iso.

[Pavowski]

Dammit, so here I go waffling more on Hectic. Ugh. I almost want you to get shot right now just so that I can know the truth about you, and I'd be more comfortable with that since you seem less inclined to shoot me if it goes that way. If Marci was the all-consuming question for me d3, you've become the same for d4.

[Enchant]

We doing lists?

ok

Enchant
Pavowski
Toogeloo
Vulture
Lukewarm
Hockey


Actually if Pav is real town, you can simple rapidshot everyone in Toog/Vulture/Lukewarm/Hockey and we win, even if townie in this list was shot first.

[Pavowski]

Hectic is not in your list.

[Vulture]

Toogeloo's advice columns to marci have slightly rubbed me the wrong way, but I can't articulate why. Or maybe I'm just starting to think that because I think Pav may be town so someone needs to take his place as scum lol

(Energy levels still aren't back at full so don't expect too much here but I wanted to use this as a jumping board.)

I had the same thought while reading them and I think I know why: it feels like the advice Toog is giving to Marci, to shoot who she wants ultimately or a townread... still results in a townshot regardless of who she goes for? Like even saying "Oh, go back and read T3...", my assumptions of Marci are that she's going to go with her gut/'vibes' more than what she rereads over (no offense Marci, really is just what I gather from how you post).

Also, I disagree with the idea that scum are pushing their partners for cred. Why would they be pushing each other right now when they're close to winning and it's an easier path to just get some misshots versus cutting down their own numbers? Shrug emoji. Going off of this I then saw the 'oh I wanted the gun all game...' posting as WIFOM-y but I'm not 100% on Toog so shrug emoji again.

With Marci being town I am back to Enchant being scum which, given his recent posts, would actually mean he

did

TMI Marci town earlier and given his comments about Pav... he could be TMI'ing him town too. Which, hand wave at above.

--

I think that what Luke's doing right now is busywork and the interpretations of things (asking people "hey, what are your reads right now) are pretty barren of achieving anything; I had previously outted a solve, with one piece switching out. The implication at that point was that "these people are scum to me" and "these people are town to me" and I don't understand why he's saying I haven't said my reads. In any case, I'm currently at Luke + Enchant + Pav / Toog (?). The latter slot depends on Enchant's flip. I'd still shoot Luke first.

--

@Marci: Beyond this, if you want a reason not to shoot me, please look at my interactions with T3 and Luke (if you think he's scum. If you don't then meh). The things I was calling them both out for aren't things people weren't going for or noticing but I was right on T3 being weird about the things he was saying, and I think I'm right on Luke too.

Even if Luke says I was wavering/going back to my read on him when it was convenient, it isn't quite like that. If a read is unpopular, I will go after it for a bit, but... why do I put my energy into something in the moment that isn't going to go anywhere? It would've been a vanity push, and after a certain point on Luke no one else was agreeing so yeah, I did try to see it how everyone else was seeing it but I couldn't quite get there. And then Hectic saw it and I was right back onboard because I felt less crazy for seeing it and it's a nice feeling when someone has your back.

So yeah. There's some of my thoughts. I don't know how much I'll be around today but hope it helps.

[Enchant]

Oh right. Hectic exist too.

[Pavowski]

Vulture please stop posting town, I am narrowing down a PoE/solve that I thought I was comfortable with but I kinda need you in it

[Vulture]

Everyone's been POEing me for... reasons? That no one's really said.

Open your eyes! >_>

[Pavowski]

I'm trying but it's the weekend and I had a substance last night so just give me a minute, I will figure my life out soon enough, maybe

[Pavowski]

Okay, I've gone back through the entire game.

Will admit I got a little fatigued in the back half but that part is fresher in my mind anyway.

I used a highly scientific and unexplainable system to spotcheck my preconceived notions and straighten out my thinking. Realized I was operating under some bad assumptions. I am adjusting my thinking accordingly.

Not gonna itemize it or wall it, most of this group scumreads me already and I'm not gonna give them more ammo, and I hate walls anyway.

VOTE: Lukewarm

Enchant is a good shot, too, but I think this one is better.

[HockeyFan]

Considering Pav scumreaded by everyone else, i think he is town.

Lame way to discredit peoples reads!!

I guess I am trying to decide if I think that implies that we are wrong on Pav, and scum team is riding it, or are his partners bussing / letting him sink

Put another way, scum would be happy to give me the gun

Considering Pav scumreaded by everyone else, i think he is town.

Honestly I could be wrong on Pav just because of the fact no matter how much I scumcase whatever he posts he comes back and gives more takes and reads, like it doesn't seem to phase him at all. I have caught myself scumreading town payers similar to Pav with waffly (nice?) tones, so it might be that again

I feel more confident in a Luke shot at this current time

766: This is also scummy from Enchant

Hockey
Vulture
Toogeloo
Pavowski
Enchant
Lukewarm

Inspired new solve:

Lukewarm + Enchant + Toogeloo

I reread Hockey and Vulture both again but I still think they're both town. T3 whiteknight of Hockey is a big factor for him. While, Vulture's 1v1 with Luewarm (assuming I am correct on Luke) is a big factor for him. Which leaves Toogeloo

Wasnt Togeloo in your top 3 towns in 769

[Lukewarm]

Hey, sorry. I am actively trying to move right now (and gonna be VLA for the next like 3 days). I read stuff from today, and have lots and lots of thoughts, but am phone posting, so won't be able to get a full case down until tonight after we settle down and stop working tonight.

spark notes, I think that I have been thinking about this game all wrong, and I think that Pav is actually town, and I think that hectic is actually scum.

Once I get back in front of my computer, I will type it up.

[Pavowski]

In post 773, Hectic wrote:
Inspired new solve:

Lukewarm + Enchant + Toogeloo

I reread Hockey and Vulture both again but I still think they're both town. T3 whiteknight of Hockey is a big factor for him. While, Vulture's 1v1 with Luewarm (assuming I am correct on Luke) is a big factor for him. Which leaves Toogeloo

Wasnt Togeloo in your top 3 towns in 769

Hectic had himself a vision quest this morning

[HockeyFan]

Hey, sorry. I am actively trying to move right now (and gonna be VLA for the next like 3 days). I read stuff from today, and have lots and lots of thoughts, but am phone posting, so won't be able to get a full case down until tonight after we settle down and stop working tonight.

spark notes, I think that I have been thinking about this game all wrong, and I think that Pav is actually town, and I think that hectic is actually scum.

Once I get back in front of my computer, I will type it up.

Convienently moving away from sr'ing your partner arent u? hmmm(this is a joke since I also think Pav has become townier but I cant shake the feeling that Pav is scum AAAAAAA)

If i were to assume Pav was town /for now/, the solve would be enchant/Luke/Hectic
but I think this kind of posting is smth Pav can fake so it can be pav/enchant/luke

essentially luke/enchant are almost always scum and I think i feel more confident in shooting luke/enchant rn then I am pav

[Pavowski]

This is such a delightful day for me

Luke points out I'm pretty much universally scum read and all of a sudden people are diving off the boat

I wonder what the PT looks like right now

[marcistar]

Do you have any questions for me? I don't actually know how to help you right now :/

just talk with people smh

luke

r u scum yes or yes

I'm town

that wasnt an option; u must be scum

I should've played like a jester so I could get the gun early this game

no

@Marci: Beyond this, if you want a reason not to shoot me, please look at my interactions with T3 and Luke (if you think he's scum. If you don't then meh).

mmhmm, i wanted you to explain why you think you're townlike and this post is fine enough for that.

Vulture please stop posting town, I am narrowing down a PoE/solve that I thought I was comfortable with but I kinda need you in it

bruh

Everyone's been POEing me for... reasons? That no one's really said.

i think i understand why

Not gonna itemize it or wall it, most of this group scumreads me already and I'm not gonna give them more ammo, and I hate walls anyway.

VOTE: Lukewarm

Enchant is a good shot, too, but I think this one is better.

explain

[Hectic]

lol I made all those posts in bed right after waking up, Pav. Glad you enjoyed them

This is such a delightful day for me

Luke points out I'm pretty much universally scum read and all of a sudden people are diving off the boat

I wonder what the PT looks like right now :lol:

It is interesting that you were a consensus scumread, I townread you, and you're now almost a consensus townread (you owe it all to me obv)

I'll think about this more seriously when gain the motivation again

Anyway,

Gladiate: Lukewarm

I request you shoot Luke or I today, marci

[marcistar]

I request you shoot Luke or I today, marci

y should i shoot u -.-

[Lukewarm]

Me realizing that I have been thinking about this game the wrong way: the wall post.

I put Hectic in the townbin when he alt switched into the game

Spoiler:

I think that the rep in makes hectic town.

I don't really think that there is a reason for scum!art to make the switch right now.

He was in no danger of being shot, and his art posts made it hard to read him, but in a way that you could not say was ai, because it was just the alt gimmick doing it.

So, maybe he would do it if his buddies were in danger, but I scrolled back to see who he might be saving, and I think marci scum reads were the most recent development happening in the thread, so the fact that she is the one he is pushing takes messes with that idea as well

And at the time, that just felt very true. There was no reason for scum!hectic to alt switch at that moment. But I think that that was the wrong way to think about it. Scum!hectic absolutely needed to switch at some point this game. As Art, he just simply would not have had the kind of thread presence that he has now. He could not switch too soon, or then it would raise the question of was playing at Art to begin with, but he needed to switch at some point. Also, part of that reasoning relied on my scum read of Marci, which x.x

Hectic swapped in, and has a bunch of rapid posts in a row. First, he scum cases T3 saying that he even tmi'ed Hockey town, town cased me, and then his final conclusion was that Marci was the best shot.

Spoiler:

Anyways, it feel like marci is the best shot here.

181 expressed liking Art and their point about Luke. It implies liking the point means some kind of agreement with it, in most cases

However, when Luke calls her out on it, she backpedals in 188, saying she only liked Art

having

the thought, and she's not sure if she agrees with it, which is a little more convoluted, and possibly her changing her stance since she knows Luke would see through agreeing with it

Since then, she's almost seemed a little afraid to express many reads/thoughts. The only one being in 321 where she says she's scumreading Enchant but doesn't elaborate

I don't think Luke is scum with marci for their interactions, and I don't think Hockey is scum with marci for 204/216/226. So, if correct, it'd be a very valuable flip

But we have tiiiimeee, so marci, if you're not scum, give us a power star; talk about your reads etc

So, at the time, I thought Marci was scum, so it did not seem like he was coming in to save her, so he was town. But I actually think that Hectic came in trying to save T3, and angle on getting Marci and Pav shot. Again, Hectic says that T3 is scummy, but every time he gives a reads list, either Marci or Pav are the ones on the bottom, not T3, even though he has posited that T3 tmi'ed hockey town, and keeps up the T3 scum read through out.

Every read list from Hectic up to T3's flip
:Opening flurry : T3 is scummy, lets shoot marci
:386 : T3 is scummy, lets shoot marci
:450 : T3 is scummy, lets shoot Pav
:504 : T3 is scummy, lets shoot Pav

And imo, his reasons for scum reading T3 seem pretty strong, for him to just happen to never be at the bottom of the list.

---

Back to him accusing T3 of tmi'ing Hockey. I think that Hockey is one of his partners, and was strongly trying to set up the idea of scum!T3=town!Hockey, to buy hockey deep into the game.

This takes a bit of a looK at T3. T3 is, in the nicest way possible, not a very strong scum player. One of the issues that he has, is that he is fairly widely known for always scum reading his partners. Like every game. It feels like he is unable to town read people that he knows are scum, like he cannot actually come up with good reasons to town read them, so he plants them in his scum leans instead. (I can provide links wrt this if you don't know that he has this issue, but doing a meta dive to prove it seems like a lot of effort, when you might just already know this)

But lets look at this game. Here are his reads:

Town: Pav, Hockey, Luke, Toog, Enchant, Vulture

Scum:

Marci

, Hectic

All 3 of T3's partners are in that list. So, clearly he put, at a minimum, 2 of his partners in his town reads. Which is very outside of T3's norm play style. I guess because there are so many scum in this set up, he had to try and change that up a bit.

So, this game, T3 is trying to give town reads to some of his scum partners, when he is not used to doing so, because town reading people he knows are scum is simply not something he is good at faking. Queue him town reading Hockey for dumb reasons.

Then see Toog linking the two of them together pretty early post 67. See me listing both T3 and Hockey as 2 of my top scum reads post 275

Hectic swapped in trying to save the game for the scum team. He says that T3 is scummy, but we should shoot marci or pav, but if T3 DOES die, he must have been tmi'ing hockey as town

Also, see Hectic completely townbinning Hockey because of T3's read, despite the scummy things that Hockey has done.

-----

I already pointed out some of my issues with Hockey independently and his response was... not great. He basically just OMGUS scum read me back, and tried to act like my reasons were nonsensical 612. Even after Toog agreed with me 599. Even after Hectic responded to say that it was a reasonable thing for people to be suspicious for (but also took the opportunity to shoot down the scum read there) 613 He still plants me as his most confident scum read, all based on that omgus

I think mafia team is pav/luke(his bad faith case on me combined with not that much contnet

Also, lol at the idea that scum!luke is a low content luke. Which btw, he should know isn't the case. He was in my first scum game. The game lasted until day 4. I died Day 2. Despite dying part way through the game, here is where it ended:

Spoiler:

-----

I think that this game makes a lot more sense in a Hectic+Hockey scum world. Them being scum heavily spews Pav and Toog as being town. Pav because he was one of the 2 designated misshots that hectic was pushing (the other being you) and then Toog because he is the first person who linked T3 and Hockey, and then when I mentioned it again, he sided with me on that (also, I was already town reading Toog)

So I am at Hectic+Hockey + probably vulture/maybe Enchant (his content has died down hard since I started thinking he was town)

[Toogeloo]

I'm at Hectic + Enchant as well, and I've started coming around to Pav-town. I like your solve, Luke.

[ArcAngel9]

Vote Count 4-1

Hectic

:

Vulture

:

Enchant

:

Lukewarm

: Pavowski

Pavowski

:

marcistar

:

HockeyFan

:

Toogeloo

:

Not Voting

: Vulture, Lukewarm, marcistar, Toogeloo, Enchant, HockeyFan, , Hectic

Elimination is not achievable through votes

Deadline: Aug 20th, 2021

Countdown: (expired on 2021-08-19 22:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[Pavowski]

Gladiate: Lukewarm

I request you shoot Luke or I today, marci

I'm willing to bet the match there's scum between Luke/Hectic.

Luke's wall in 794 is good, but there's something missing that I'd expect to see if Luke were the town side of this: An acceptance of Hectic's challenge.

Town!Luke should have no problem accepting a him-or-me thunderdome; he knows he's town, he can turn around and shoot Hectic himself if Marci shoots Luke. The fact he doesn't show some willingness to get shot so he can shoot Hectic is a subtle tell.

So I would heartily endorse shooting either Luke or Hectic today, but if it were me, I'd shoot the pirate. It's important to note that you can't lose the game with a bad shot. Hectic's invocation of the thunderdome would actually be scummy if we were at 7 living players.

[Hectic]

marci: Maybe it's a little selfish but I wouldn't mind being shot first because then I could finally have POWER. I very much like the odds of shooting Luke and it would give me much motivation to find the remaining 2. I've been struggling to keep myself motivated the longer this game goes, only finding it in short bursts

But yeah, if you want to go for pure wincon points, go for Luke

Look at the world where Pav and Hectic are town, Luke is scum. I've been pushing Pav for who knows how long, while still scumreading Luke in parts, but my preferred shot has remained Pav. Luke has been relatively unphased by my scumread on him, still thinking I'm town despite all of the various reasons I have said he's scummy for. He has also had Pav as his top scumread during this time.

HOWEVER, as soon as I recognise Pav is town, and Luke is now my preferred shot (largely for the same reasons I was expressing before), Luke now thinks Pav is town and Hectic is scum. There comes a big reevaluation and shift of thinking from him because he

needs

to do it, whereas he didn't before where Pav was the one being pushed to get shot, and likely would've shot me, winning scum!Luke the game. This isn't the case anymore, so Luke shifts his approach; townreading Pav, pushing me

To me, it's very clear that this turn of reads and actions are very self-motivated from Luke

[Hectic]

Not self-motivated

*scum-motovated