Open 823 - To Tell The Truth | Game Over

[goats]

I haven't played with Not_Mafia before, is quick-hammering something he does every day or just D1?

Why do you ask?

[imaginality]

Meg town I think.

Meg, thoughts on cyrus?

Good analysis of imaginality and I don't think they are s/s.

I would like thoughts on these posts, as they partain to T3's alignment, and his partner equity (high or low) with Meg

I can see T3 and Meg as possible buddies, that second post is the sort of scum buddy in-game chat I've seen. (though I don't know if that happens so much in games with daytalk?)

Obviously I disagree with the 'good analysis' of imaginality, for reasons I already stated in D1, so it seems odd to me T3 is calling Meg town for that.

I'd say scum who are in danger of being eliminated (as T3 was) are less likely look to call other people town rather than looking for reasons to add suspicion to others. Which would be a small point towards Meg perhaps being scum if T3 is.

[imaginality]

I haven't played with Not_Mafia before, is quick-hammering something he does every day or just D1?

Why do you ask?

Because an early quick-hammer shortens discussion which is usually a bad thing (gives us less info to go on on the next day) so if he's still likely to quickhammer I'd want to be surer of my read if I'm putting someone to E-1 early today, compared with if he only plays like that D1.

[goats]

Imaginality's posts are pretty towny this day phase so far

[imaginality]

It seems like it could be somewhat risky for scum to include scum in the investigation targets as there's a chance (1/3 chance right now but will vary depending on elims) that two guilties get returned and then we'd know at least one of the two is scum.

This post is relevant

I agree with my past self but it is worth noting that since we mis-eliminated cyrus D1, scum have more leeway to take risky actions compared to if we'd eliminated Scum D1. They can afford to risk sacrificing someone.

Reviewing the results today, the scenarios I'm trying to fit each result

and

non-result into are:

1. Is this person town and scum were hoping for a guilty on them to make a mis-elim more likely?
2. Is this person scum and scum were hoping for an inno on them to protect them from elimination?
3. Is this person town and scum

chose not to

target them because they didn't want them to return an inno (and move closer to being conftown) ?
4. Is this person scum and scum

chose not to

target them because they didn't want them to return a guilty (and move closer to being confscum)?
5. Wifom confusion random who knows-ness

To an extent this does just boil down to, 'is this person town or scum?' so maybe this is over thinking it. But for example, if ArcAngel hadn't returned an inno today I was planning to vote her for her vote on the cyrus wagon. So I feel like scum could have included her as a target, to sacrifice her if she returned guilty or protect her if she returned inno.

I do take your point, goats, that on baseline stats, both ArcAngel and Not_Mafia are more likely than not to be town. (I think baseline is each of them is about 82% likely to be town). I don't think we should be targeting either of them today.

[goats]

Do you want to vote Meg?

[imaginality]

I think I still prefer a T3 vote. Didn't like the way the pressure shifted away from T3 to cyrus yesterday, so I feel like if T3 is scum there's scum on the cyrus wagon (aside from T3 and cyrus, that was Zyla, ArcAngel and Not_Mafia).

With Meg I could go along with a wagon but I'd rather see more from him first. I'm wary I'm overreacting to the bad case he made on me. I'll have time to reread this evening - I want to look at others too.

For example, I didn't like this from HockeyFan:

goats
@Megazumarill
@imaginality
@HockeyFan

Im not gonna really do this even

if

you're town because you didnt look town at all. I probs look more into zyla, but I think the other people who voted you could be town, also cryus why did u self hammer lol

HockeyFan, why did you say you'd look into Zyla - what makes Zyla less likely to be town than the others on the cyrus wagon?

[goats]

True I don't like that

[ArcAngel9]

Day 2 begins.

OR
Not_Mafia is

TOWN

| ArcAngel9 is

TOWN

Official Vote Count 2.00

Elimination

With 8 alive, 5 votes are required for elimination.

Not Voting

(8): goats, T3 Megazumarill, imaginality, Zyla, Not_Mafia, HockeyFan, ArcAngel9

Deadline:

(expired on 2021-08-25 18:12:18).

Mod notes:

Day 2 begins

I know the truth... I am town!

I know how my push on cyrus would look like but i still blame him for being scummy!!

If there is truth in the result, it's my faction that makes NM is scum.

Those who trust me, come and vote the cow!!!

VOTE: Not_Mafia

[goats]

NM isn't mafia if you're town, that's not how it works

[T3]

Imaginality's posts are pretty towny this day phase so far

252 in a vacuum is +town but imaginality is an experienced player so Idk.

[imaginality]

On my re-read I found Zyla and find her posts about cyrus/T3 interesting. Especially cyrus. I'd previously had a vague town-lean on her but when I did a deeper read this is what I noticed:

Spoiler: Zyla's vote on cyrus

VOTE: Cyrus.
Anyone can read that, and there's only vanilla roles any way, there's no point in it even if it were some master code

A weak reason to vote cyrus. That's absolutely fair enough, since it was early on D1. What's of note is that her vote never moves after this. So if Zyla's town, either she found stronger reasons to keep her vote on cyrus (if so, what?) or she never had any better reason to vote anyone else?

Spoiler: asking why Hockey thought cyrus could be town

VOTE: arcangel

Wait wtf cyrus might be town?

What about this vote makes him towny?

Hockey answered Zyla, saying it was because cyrus scumread ArcAngel. Zyla said:

Oh yeah. I don't think I've ever actually managed to hit scum first time so I forgot it was possible xD

Can't quite pin down why but something about this post gives me a gut feel that Zyla knows ArcAngel's alignment one way or another.

Spoiler: meta posts

N_M, why are u doing this to me smfh, pls dont claim scum when I tr u

It's Not_Mafia, this is just how they play.
Honestly, it's pretty frustrating

In response to NM asking why cyrus crumbed VT:

It's Cyrus

If Zyla was voting cyrus for the crumbing (ie basically for his play style), why cyrus and not NM whose playstyle she describes as 'pretty frustrating'? This makes me doubt the genuineness of the continued cyrus vote.

Spoiler: on cyrus's comments about ArcAngel

discrediting everyone here aka chainsawing.and whiteknighting.

I don't know what chainsawing is, but WKing is defending people, and "too early to call them scum" is way to weak a defense to call it that.
Angel's post was scummy to me, but that's because she was dismissing Hockey and your (Cyrus) reads rather than trying to

discuss

them, not because she was 'whiteknighting'

Zyla's calling Angel scummy but criticising cyrus for how he made the same point. This leads to a discussion of semantics:

so you think arc is scum too?

I find her post to be suspicious, yes
But atm I'm interested in what your definitions of those terms are

I find it suspicious that Zyla was focusing on the semantics rather than either: looking for substantive reasons to either confirm her read on cyrus or clear him, or looking at other players to see if she could find a stronger scumread.

When cyrus answered Zyla in post 202, Zyla didn't respond to him. Was this desire for clarification just an excuse to continue to keep her vote on him?

Spoiler: T3 worried about getting eliminated

Can we please take me off NM-1.
I'm slightly paranoid

You've got 44 hours, I'd suggest giving us a reason to vote someone else, not focusing on yourself.

Also, if anyone's confused, NM likes to quickhammer, so E1 is effectively a hammer in a game he's in

Feels like Zyla either saw T3 as scummy or didn't care whether he was eliminated or not. If the latter, that's suspicious (especially if T3 turns out to be town). If the former, why didn't she voice any suspicions of him earlier?

An alternate take on the "I'd suggest giving us a reason to vote someone else" is scum coaching, which perhaps is boosted by the fact she says that even though her vote isn't on him. This might be a stretch but at the very least I don't think a Zyla scum flip would make T3 any more likely to be town.

When T3 does offer an alternative:

cyrus, vote him by meta.

Not really sure what meta you're meaning tbh

Again this sort of feels to me like Zyla not really caring about which one of T3 or cyrus gets eliminated. Considering her vote was on cyrus at the time this is a pretty lukewarm response to T3.

Spoiler: In response for cyrus asking Zyla to unvote him

I'm good where I am for now, you're one of my top suspects so I don't mind if you get eliminated

Zyla, what was it that made cyrus "one of your top suspects"? Aside from cyrus and ArcAngel, did you have other "top suspects" at that time? Was T3 one of your top suspects at the time of post 200?

Do you have any town reads?

Vote: Zyla

I think some of these points need answering.

[Not_Mafia]

shortens discussion which is usually a bad thing

Disagree

[HockeyFan]

HockeyFan can you go over a readlist with your reasonings for your reads, I'm seeing a lot of strong reads and I don't really see where they are coming from.

Goats- Town. Thier progression of reads and thier actual reads on page 5. Since then they've been pretty towny

T3- They're hard to read, but I think they've done towny things, and thier push on cyrus alligned with mine so I think they're town

N_M- gut townread tbh

Arc Angel- Her first post was very scummy imo, and since then she ahsnt done anything towny

Imaginality- Null, once they actually started providing content, I think they were towny but it can come in thier wolf range

Zyla- Nul leaning town? Cant really explain this one

Meg- Null, dont really have a read on you

Also, regarding 256, there were 5 people on the vote.

Goats(who i trd), t3(who i trd), Arc(who i srd at the time), cyrus and zyla(someone i didnt really have a read on), so thats why i said what i said

[imaginality]

goats
@Megazumarill
@imaginality
@HockeyFan

Im not gonna really do this even

if

you're town because you didnt look town at all. I probs look more into zyla, but

I think the other people who voted you could be town

, also cryus why did u self hammer lol

HockeyFan, why did you say you'd look into Zyla - what makes Zyla less likely to be town than the others on the cyrus wagon?

HockeyFan can you go over a readlist with your reasonings for your reads, I'm seeing a lot of strong reads and I don't really see where they are coming from.

Also, regarding 256, there were 5 people on the vote.

Goats(who i trd), t3(who i trd),

Arc(who i srd at the time)

, cyrus and zyla(someone i didnt really have a read on), so thats why i said what i said

Explain how these can both be true, because it looks like an obvious contradiction to me.

[Marashu]

Official Vote Count 2.01

Elimination

With 8 alive, 5 votes are required for elimination.

MegAzumarill

(1): goats

ArcAngel9

(1): HockeyFan

Not_Mafia

(1): ArcAngel9

Zyla

(1): imaginality

Not Voting

(4): T3 Megazumarill, Zyla, Not_Mafia

Deadline:

(expired on 2021-08-25 18:12:18).

Mod notes:

[ArcAngel9]

the scum team is NM and hockeyfan

[Not_Mafia]

It's not

[HockeyFan]

goats
@Megazumarill
@imaginality
@HockeyFan

Im not gonna really do this even

if

you're town because you didnt look town at all. I probs look more into zyla, but

I think the other people who voted you could be town

, also cryus why did u self hammer lol

HockeyFan, why did you say you'd look into Zyla - what makes Zyla less likely to be town than the others on the cyrus wagon?

HockeyFan can you go over a readlist with your reasonings for your reads, I'm seeing a lot of strong reads and I don't really see where they are coming from.

Also, regarding 256, there were 5 people on the vote.

Goats(who i trd), t3(who i trd),

Arc(who i srd at the time)

, cyrus and zyla(someone i didnt really have a read on), so thats why i said what i said

Explain how these can both be true, because it looks like an obvious contradiction to me.

Yes because I said T3/Goats are town. Also at the time of the cyrus wagon, it was knowledge that I sr'd Arc right?

[T3]

lol arc
VOTE: arc
Either you and nm are both town or both scum, you do realize that.

[HockeyFan]

lol arc
VOTE: arc
Either you and nm are both town or both scum, you do realize that.

what is this train of logic? wdym they both

have

to be town. dotn think this is true?

[goats]

That's literally not possible T3

[T3]

Wait am I really confused about the setup
I thought the arc nm thing was a parity cop check.

[T3]

I'm an idiot. UNVOTE:

[HockeyFan]

uhh what townslip much? Knowing t3 tho, that was 100% a fake townslip