Open 828 | The Brethren Coalition | Game Over!

[Farren]

Enchant, how's it feel to be the most trusted player so far?

HEAL: Farren
HEAL: Enchant

[Farren]

Why the hurt tags, instead of vote tags?

[Farren]

They won't serve towards eliminating anyone, but they still should be recorded on vote counts as the coalitions are updated.

[Farren]

4 votes to heal enchant and if we get it wrong we can't win day1

It doesn't matter how many of us heal Enchant. The coalition is only hammered if five people heal the exact same slate of five people.

[Farren]

So I don't see any merit in hurting them at the moment. I think this is more interesting, and hopefully will produce better results than the last time I ran an experiment with Enchant involved.

[Farren]

cyrus - you come across to me like you're in wheeling-and-dealing mode. Is that where your head is now?

[Farren]

If I had to come up with a Scumread, I think Farren's the closest to it? He gives me a vibe of an analytical player, who right now feels as if he's forcing himself to post and keep up the analytical appearance? But the game isn't exactly full of content, to be fair. Everyone else feels null so far.

I am an analytical player - although the analysis part sometimes resembles throwing everything in a big box labeled SOLUTIONS, shaking it a few times, and seeing what comes out. Especially when deadlines are involved.

The surprising thing is that it works from time to time.

[Farren]

no you're not useing proper logic as town I am willing to keep my self out as a act of good faith why because right now I would think scum was would want either of them in it there is only 7 town 5 day 2 and 3 day 3 if we don't hit scum so scums best actions is to be the 5

Of course, if you're Town and in the Coalition, then that means there's one spot less for scum to occupy. It also means that - if the Coalition fails - you only have to find scum amongst four players instead of amongst five players.

[Farren]

cyrus - you come across to me like you're in wheeling-and-dealing mode. Is that where your head is now?

VOTE: Farren

Understanding people is important to figuring out their alignment.

[Farren]

you don't trust me? :crying:

Give me a reason hurt your self.

i'm town so i'm not going to

Would you do it if you were scum? If so, why?

[Farren]

if i were scum i'd hurt myself to appease you

I'll take this as an answer to my last question.

[Farren]

I do not trust enchant or feral. I can't shake a nagging feeling that std isn't town.

Who the heck is feral?

If that's supposed to be me,

please stop

. Please spell my name correctly.

[Farren]

cyrus - you come across to me like you're in wheeling-and-dealing mode. Is that where your head is now?

*putting player hat back on*

Also, cyrus, I didn't see you answer this question.

[Farren]

Farren my bad but my actions are pure.

Thank you. That's on a personal, outside-of-the-game level.

[Farren]

Theres not enough information to get a read on me

Of course there is. The only way there wouldn't would be if you'd literally posted nothing at all since the game started.

[Farren]

heh. That was supposed to be "wouldn't be", not "wouldn't would be."

[Farren]

Should I take this to mean you have a read on all (or most) players in the game already?

Nope.

My statement should be taken as "It is possible to form a read on a player if they've put out content."
Not "I am personally capable of forming reads on all players if they've put out content."

[Farren]

There's not much point with disagreeing about my reinterpretation of my statement, no. I'm the one who said it; I'm the best judge of what I meant by it.

Wanting to see if Save The Dragons reacts to a blatant disagreement of his statement, and if so, how.

Early takes:

HURT: Enchant
HEAL: Pavowski
HEAL: cyrus62
VOTE: yessiree

You're on the borderline of being healed.

[Farren]

Lean town: yessiree
Null town: STD (I will be able to read him later, for now it's just vibes)

I'd like to hear more about these two in particular.

[Farren]

cyrus is out of his scumrange

What is cyrus's scumrange?

[Farren]

Willing and dealing . My head for the 1st time is to try to find 5 out of 9 I trust the most. Then out of throse five who I trust the least

Thank you.

[Farren]

HEAL: Nathann
HEAL: Hakai

My current coalition: Farren, cyrus62, Pavowski, Nathann, Hakai.

[Farren]

The order I listed is from most trusted to least trusted in terms of towniness, although you and Pavowski are level-pegging.

[Farren]

Clearly this means I need a bigger stick.

[Farren]

Truth is I didn't want to be in any ones 5. Since if the 5 fail we will be looking at them more closely.

This is the way I'm thinking of it: if I'm in the Coalition, and it fails, then I only have to find scum in a group of four people. If I'm outside the Coalition and it fails, I have to find scum in a group of five people. I'd rather go looking through the four.

Plus, better odds from my POV that the Coalition doesn't fail if there are only four unknown slots in it instead of five.

[Farren]

Farren, you have Nathann in your coalition but I don't see why.

For that matter I don't see why I'm in it either.

Right now, I'm putting people in my coalition that are putting themselves out there. Town are more likely to do that than scum - and if it fails, we'll have more to work with.

That's part of the reasoning, at least. The rest will wait until later.

[Farren]

cyrus, why is Save The Dragons scum?

[Farren]

Because when I'm town it is obvious so I'm a good candidate for the coalition regardless of my.alignment.

easy to catch if scum, easy to clear if town

.

Interesting argument. Could be a positive.

Why are both the underlined true?

[Farren]

Because when I'm town it is obvious so I'm a good candidate for the coalition regardless of my.alignment. easy to catch if scum, easy to clear if town.

Scum response. I'm aiming to win day1 not have scum in my 5.

I think it could be a Town response. I'm having a hard time coming up with a type of scum player that would make that sort of claim.

[Farren]

@mod I never healed Farren

That's showing me healing you, not you healing me.

[Farren]

HURT: Hakai
HEAL: ssbm_Kyouko

[Farren]

why

See post 207.

[Farren]

i very doubt in our ability to snipe 5 townies in 7 people, 2 of whose is mafia

We have 9 players, not 7. Townslip? Hmm.

That's either NAI or scumslip, I'd say.

Thinking "5 of 7" as opposed to "4 of 6" ... if you're Town, you don't have to figure yourself out. But if you're phrasing it from a strictly neutral POV - from the whole of the Town - who can't clear any individual within it - then 5 of 7 works. Given the wording, I'd lean towards the neutral.

Adding the "2 of" part ... yeah, that doesn't tell me anything.

[Farren]

seems pretty NAI especially if someone is aware of their meta

could also just be a complete lie

Breaking one's meta - even when aware of it - is easier said than done. Especially as scum. It's not impossible, but it is challenging. Especially over the long haul.

The complete lie is certainly possible - although if it is a lie, it's one that could be disproven with a solid meta-dive. Would be pretty risky at this point - it's early enough in the game that there's plenty of time to metadive her and disprove it, if it's false.

[Farren]

Earlier he made a post that seemed like it was meant to deliberately call attention to the fact he was hurting himself in an attempt to gain townreads.

The only two posts I see that you could be referring to are 76 (the one with the self-hurt) and 129 (answering why when someone asked). Neither of those look to me like they're deliberately trying to call attention to themselves. The former - "because cyrus asked me to" - I could see as a possible attempt to gain townreads, although given the follow-up questions he asked, I don't think that was his motive.

[Farren]

Alright, i think we should win with this.

HURT: Enchant
HURT: Cyrus62
HEAL: Save The Dragons
HEAL: Hanai
HEAL: Nathann
HEAL: yesaree
HEAL: Farren

If Cyrus, Pav and anime are town, we won this with elumination of whole Coalition which should contain 2 mafia.

Yes. Not on Day 1. BUT MORE LIKELY.
Follow please.

I reject this philosophy entirely. If the Coalition fails and contains only one scum, eliminating the entire Coalition even after flipping a scum guarantees a loss.

[Farren]

Earlier he made a post that seemed like it was meant to deliberately call attention to the fact he was hurting himself in an attempt to gain townreads.

And you still haven't replied to me about how the fact that cyrus asked me to hurt myself played the part, and how it differs from Pavowski doing the exact same thing a few posts earlier.

This is part of what I like about Nathann, for the record. Continuing to follow through. That tells me the questions have meaning, and that he's interested in hearing the answers.

[Farren]

Kyouko gives me bad vibes because I feel like it's a huge stretch to not only confidently declare me Scum over word choice, but to be so confident to declare I'm Townspewing people from it.

For reasons

, I feel like she shouldn't be rushing to read me on tone, especially not like that.

What are those reasons?

And please elaborate more on the bad vibes. I think I understand where they're coming from, but I want to hear it from you.

[Farren]

Ergo, i think D1 win is worthy sacrifice in long run. If you all want to go for D1 Win, i can't stop you. But should understand.
You not gonna win. Sad but true.

Coalitions have succeeded before. Why do you think we can't succeed?

[Farren]

If I hadn't hurt myself, cyrus would've been Scumreading me. I did, so Hakai is Scumreading me. Dammed if you do...

What's your current experience with Mafia? How do games usually go for you?

[Farren]

We most likely will try to elim people from Coalition anyway, before we hit one mafia. So having both of them in Coalition helps gradually and speedups time when we kill one of them.
As told, finding 5 townies around you all is impossible task for me. If you ignore me and somehow win... Well. I don't mind actually and take my words back.
If we continue, then we will be debuffed for whole game, because we will drink wine for whole game, wondering "How much mafia in Coalition anyway?".

Should take this as an answer to my question about why you think we can't win.

This is also concerning, because if you're Town and you put yourself in the Coalition, you're only looking for four Townies. You wouldn't need to look for five. So either you're deliberately looking at things through a lens of added, unnecessary difficulty, or you're looking at things through a lens of scumminess. Which one and why, or am I missing something?

[Farren]

It's his play stateing I'm out of my scumrange is puzzling to me. But I think scum wouldn't give up a easy elemation like that.

Are you out of your scumrange?

[Farren]

Normally scum use me as lhf I'm always scum read as town and more so as scum. But save by the bell also said I was town to the point I feel uneasy with how easy I'm being town read.

wait, I'm misreading the situation. Forget about that line of inquiry. I was parsing 318 as if you were thinking Hakai was scum, but that's wrong; you were thinking of Hakai as Town.

[Farren]

Also, just on the win today / win later argument, my understanding is that after D1 if our coalition fails (contains scum) the game basically becomes mountainous... Town just knows there was >0 scum in the coalition.

So it's not like we can just eliminate the coalition and win if 2 scum were inside. Scum can still night kill and may well kill outside the coalition in that case.

Maybe math disproves me on that but I'm phone posting from work and just wanted to get this out there.

No, you're right.

If the Coalition fails, we know there are (1-2) scum and (3-4) Town in it, and we'll be able to absorb two miseliminations without losing. Three miseliminations costs us the game.

[Farren]

Though this did make me wonder - @Farren, what's your current read on Hakai, and what did you like about him initially when you put him into the Coalition? (Assuming it was more than the fact he was active.)

Middling, at the moment.

And not so much "active" as "willing to make waves." It's a good start, but better if it continues.

[Farren]

Right now, I think I'd be okay with either my current coalition, or swapping someone out for Hakai.

[Farren]

Not the mod, but I can answer that.

To pass, five people have to have the exact same group of five people in their coalition.

So something like:

A: A,B,C,D,E
B: A,B,C,D,E
C: A,B,C,D,E
D: A,B,C,D,E
F: A,B,C,D,E

E: A,B,C,E,F
F: B,C,D,F,G
G: A,C,D,G,H
H: D,E,F,G,H

The A/B/C/D/E coalition, proposed by players A,B,C,D, and F gets locked in.

[Farren]

oops. Pretend that F doesn't have two slates in, and that second "F" is actually player I instead.

[Farren]

C: CDHNP
D: CDNP?
E: ?????
F: CFPKN
H: CDEHP
K: CFKPY
N: CDFNP
P: CDHPY
Y: CDFPY

D: Save The Dragons; K: ssbm_Kyouko; everyone else - first letter of their name.
So this is where we are now, sorted alphabetically, as of redtea's last tally.
No two people have the same Coalition, so we're nowhere near locking one in.

[Farren]

Its utility is mostly in terms of figuring out how close to a coalition we are(n't).

PEdit> Yup. At least at this point, I don't think it matters that much. It'll start mattering more as the deadline shrinks - or if the coalition fails.

[Farren]

I think enchant may have been right. Wining day one was a fools gambit.

The important thing is this:

Trying

to win on D1 is what's important. Maybe we succeed. Maybe we don't. If we do, great! If we don't, we have valuable information that will hopefully help us win later.

Trying is not foolish. And it's certainly no gambit.

[Farren]

Pavowski, could you make a town case on Save The Dragons?

[Farren]

Also not in mood arguing. If everyone disagree with my idea, not gonna complain anymore.

Will you provide your ideas as to who should be in a Town-centered coalition?

[Farren]

I need to consider it better then.

Still plenty of time left.

[Farren]

It's not the thickest case, and I admit I have some difficulty reading STD, but tonally I'm finding him relaxed and involved in a way that I don't really expect from scum!std.

He's also had a few genuine-feeling reactions to blips in the thread, esp regarding his reads on me, that I don't think scum would have.

How's his usual confidence level compared to normal D1? I see a lot of "i think", "i guess" - that sort of thing. For some players, that's a sign of Town - for others, scum.

[Farren]

UNVOTE: yessiree

[Farren]

Hard to say, I replaced in to my last game with him. Again, more of my TR on STD is coming from a few genuine-feeling interactions in this thread, rather than his tone (which feels pretty consistent across games, if a little more relaxed here).

Also I am getting whiffs of scummy "better make sure I post something" vibes from this. I compare farren earlier in the thread with farren here. This is the only substantive post in 24 hours, and calling it substantive is a stretch.

Do not like

I do take breaks from the game from time to time. I find it's better for my mental health that way. And yes, I will make brief check-ins during those breaks. And I will continue to do that as necessary. Anyone who doesn't like that - too bad.

With regards to STD: I'm not seeing the Town there. Hence my questions - enough other people are seeing it that I'm wondering if I'm barking up the wrong tree.

[Farren]

Let's see how this feels.

HURT: All
HEAL: cyrus62
HEAL: ssbm_Kyouko
HEAL: Pavowski
HEAL: Save The Dragons
HEAL: Hakai

This does not reflect my current reads (obviously; I'm not in it). This is more of a "what happens when I push this button?" deal.

[Farren]

I know I'm Town. I think Kyouko's Town. I think Nathann's Town. If all three of us are out, I think the Coalition fails.

[Farren]

Hey working right now will read later.

Can someone say who they absolutely want in the coalition please? Only one name allowed no naming yourself.

Pavowski.

[Farren]

Agree that we aim for a coalition of five Town.
Agree that we eliminate inside the Coalition if it fails.

Not sure if you were advocating for setting up a hammer before the Coalition passes (so that it processes instantly in the event of a Coalition failure); if you were, I'd disagree with that. We still want a chance to get reactions from people both inside and outside the Coalition if it fails, and I don't see the gain in passing this up.

[Farren]

Did I misread the setup in that we have a coalition and then elim happens the same time of the coalition?

I am not advocating for an immediate hammer should it happen. Ideally if it fails we get communication time.

Elimination happens on D1 as soon as there's a hammer, unless the Coalition hasn't formed yet. (pretty sure that's right - regardless, we don't want to be casting any hammer votes pre-Coalition if it's wrong either.)

And I'm positive that we will have discussion time as long as we don't hammer anyone - and have time left on the clock. The clock doesn't reset on a Coalition failure, so we won't want to wait to the last minute to approve a Coalition.

PEdit> and yes, under no circumstances do we want to *not* make a Coalition. Better to have one fail than skip it entirely.

[Farren]

Cool then sounds like an I derped on rules reading thing.

Now on the last VC it’s kinda hard to read but it looks like no one has been added to the coalition yet right?

I am expressing intent to vote for every person who has the highest amount of votes to be in the coalition after work.

Based on what has happened so far I am thinking this might shake up stuff and then we can see who doesn’t want that group to go and why.

There's no official "This person is definitely in the Coalition" status. There's just us all submitting slates of up to five candidates.

If five people submit the exact same slate of five people, that becomes the Coalition.

PEdit> Basically what Pavowski said. I can add someone to *my* Coalition, but not to *the* Coalition.

[Farren]

Pavowski - (9)
cyrus62 - (9)
Save The Dragons - (7)
Nathann - (3)
Farren - (3)
yessiree - (2)
Hakai - (4)
ssbm_Kyouko - (2)
Enchant - (0)

Since this list, Nathann and I have been healed once each - so Mathblade's proposed Coalition based on what he said earlier would be cyrus, Pavowski, Save The dragons, and two of (me / Nathann / Hakai).

[Farren]

(This is town btw unless we already done goofed and have scum in there)

Well placed scum, at that.

[Farren]

Yeah. Realistically, cyrus and Pavowski are going to be in whatever ends up forming. Save The Dragons is almost certainly going to be in it as well. The last two slots are more open to debate.

[Farren]

Yup. Pretty much assuming this post is factually accurate what I would do. Then can see if there’s scum in the majorly townread players or not.

One thing to note: those numbers also include your predecessor's Coalition choices.

[Farren]

Okay noted so?

Do you think that matters?

[Farren]

It's not what your predecessor thought of the approach that matters here.

It's more: are you considering your predecessor's opinions towards the consensus when calculating what the consensus is?

[Farren]

I was yes because I don’t have any reads right now and I figured that would (in combination with reading) get the purest reads possible. I am better with mechanics than reads so I was going to. Include my predecessors.

Good answer. Thank you.

[Farren]

HURT: All
HEAL: Farren
HEAL: cyrus62
HEAL: Pavowski
HEAL: Nathann
HEAL: ssbm_kyouko

Back to read order. Mathblade's on the border of my Coalition.

[Farren]

Modifying redtea's list with this change:

cyrus62 - (9)
Pavowski - (8)
Save The Dragons - (7 >>> 6)
Nathann - (4 >>> 5)
Farren - (4 >>> 5)
Hakai - (4 >>> 3)
MathBlade - (2)
ssbm_Kyouko - (2)
Enchant - (0)

[Farren]

Sometimes I can see the appeal of chaos. Sometimes it's a valuable tool.

Other times, not so much.

[Farren]

Yes, you've mentioned before wanting to death-tunnel ssbm_kyouko.

My experience with death tunnels ... eh, it's mixed. At least here, I've found that if I'm death-tunneling someone, I'm usually wrong.

[Farren]

So let's say I take out Kyouko and put in Mathblade. Do you think that coalition passes?

[Farren]

Not going to switch now. But I will point this out - aimed at the group, not cyrus specifically.

Mathblade's said he'll heal the five most healed people. Right now, that is: cyrus62, Pavowski, Save The Dragons, Nathann, me. That is also both Nathann's and Save The Dragons's current Coalition, which (assuming Mathblade doesn't change his mind AND no one changes the balance) will make 3/5 votes for a Coalition.

[Farren]

But you dont want that because I'm in it, right

If that's to me, then yes, that's correct.

[Farren]

But you dont want that because I'm in it, right

This is what makes me sketching on save the dragon is stuff like this.

See, for me, this is actually a plus.

But I'm town :<

This, however, is a minus.

[Farren]

Why doesn't kyouko wig you out, farren?

She probably would have wigged me out a few games ago.

Town doesn't know the answers. Scum does. Town's supposed to tell the truth; scum's supposed to lie. So logically, the ones who are overly confident - and shouldn't be - are the ones to watch out for.
Except for some players, that's not the way it works. I don't know why - but I've seen it too often to be able to deny it.

Right now, her agenda - and this should not be taken to mean 'scum agenda' - seems to revolve around keeping Nathann out. I don't see that being much benefit to scum|her, given that she's got low odds of making it into the Coalition. It doesn't feel fake to me; feels real, even if I disagree with it.

[Farren]

HURT: ssbm_Kyouku
HEAL: Mathblade

[Farren]

HURT: All

I think I need to go over all of this a few times with a fine toothed comb to figure this out. I'll do that later this evening; for now, I don't want any surprises.

[Farren]

HEAL: Farren
HEAL: Nathann
HEAL: Pavowski
HEAL: ssbm_Kyouku

These stay in.

I am torn on #5.

[Farren]

cyrus: why are you concerned with proving that you aren't scum with Save The Dragons?

[Farren]

Interesting dude supposedly wants to prove he’s not scum with StD or Nathann yet puts them first in his list.

Why does position in the list matter for cyrus's rankings?
Where did cyrus say he wanted to prove he wasn't scum with Nathann specifically?

[Farren]

If do have an town tell I always tunnel who I think is scum . So yes line in the sand every one unvote me nathann and std . When we lose us three will decied who to vote off 1st enchant can join us if he wants.

Okay, now I'm confused.

[Farren]

"Supposedly" makes it sound like it's something cyrus has stated, not that it's a conclusion you've drawn.

[Farren]

The other part makes sense, though.

[Farren]

I neverd wanted in the five

Is this still true now?

If not, what's changed?

[Farren]

So Save The Dragons is "likely Town" but at the same time "gives you a weird taste." True?

[Farren]

I think this will prove you’re scum because you’ll put you or your buddy on it. If you’re town then you put on all town I am an idiot and gg.

This is a bad argument.

cyrus putting himself on the Coalition would not prove he's scum.
cyrus being single-handedly responsible for assembling a Coalition that failed would not prove that he's scum.
If putting all Town in a Coalition were that easy, this setup would have died long ago.

[Farren]

HEAL: Save The Dragons

[Farren]

Sometimes people need a break from the game. Give cyrus some time, see what happens.

[Farren]

fuck yeah

Don't make me regret this.

[Farren]

farren would you switch kyouko for cyrus or nah

Right now, no. Later ... maybe?

[Farren]

Hm. You know what, let's do this.

HURT: All
HEAL: Farren
HEAL: Pavowksi
HEAL: ssbm_Kyouko
HEAL: Mathblade
HEAL: Enchant

If you were scum with Nathann or Save the Dragons, proposing that Coalition would not be game-throwing. Why? Because proposing it doesn't mean it's going to pass.
Officially setting it as yours also would not be game-throwing; same reason.
But - what happens if it starts getting support? Then it gets interesting, and the argument starts gaining some weight.

[Farren]

Not sure where exactly that Coalition started happening, but seeing that Math was the first vote for it, that pretty much kills any Townread on him I had for not wanting into the Coalition. Hakai's vote for it with almost zero elaboration is sketchy and possibly partnery for Math (or anyone who is in it, really).

Mathblade agreed to sponsor a Coalition that cyrus proposed, then cyrus proposed it, then Math voted for it, then cyrus voted for it.

So while you're right that Mathblade voted for it first, it's a little more nuanced than how it sounds.

For anyone that's both in the Coalition and nervous about it passing - I will point out that this is a Nathann-free Coalition, and as such may attract ssbm_Kyouko's attention.

[Farren]

A lot of people ignored this. Can you please respond to this? Thanks!

My townread on cyrus isn't as strong as it was, but I still don't think that scum|cyrus rocks the boat like this given the gamestate.

His actions would only make sense if he still had a partner in there, and I'm not seeing a lot of options for that - or if this was some big bluff to try to regain lost towncred.

If this is a scum bluff, it's on the verge of being called.

[Farren]

I will point out that this is a Nathann-free Coalition, and as such may attract ssbm_Kyouko's attention.

This, I'm straight up assuming this Coalition gets hammered the moment Kyouko catches up on the game.

Farren, are you voting for the Coalition because oyu believe in it or because you're testing reactions? If the latter, how's that going?

I think the odds of this passing are not zero, but I certainly wouldn't put any money on it (even if not prohibited by site rules). Maybe 40% chance of passing?
This is more of a reaction test - and so far I've seen at least one juicy bit of info that I don't think we would have picked up otherwise. (Hakai endorsing it. Would not have expected that.)

[Farren]

That makes two people endorsing it that aren't in it.

Make that 20%.

[Farren]

HURT: All

Don't think we're going to get any more out of that.

[Farren]

Will reestablish a Coalition later this evening. I am leaning towards the current majority Coalition, though.

[Farren]

Sure . Btw with me unvoteing and you unvoteing all there isn't a majority any more.

True, and there never was. What I should have said was the current plurality - the Coalition proposed by Save The Dragons / Nathann / Pavowski.

[Farren]

HEAL: Farren
HEAL: Nathann
HEAL: Pavowski
HEAL: cyrus62
HEAL: Save The Dragons

This is one away from locking in a Coalition.

[Farren]

Fingers crossed.

[Farren]

I find myself regret free. I am pleased.

Thanks for running it, redtea!

[Farren]

I've released my notes PT.