Open 828 | The Brethren Coalition | Game Over!

[MathBlade]

If someone does not vote themselves into the coalition in this game it is against the town wincon and serves the scum wincon.

Consider the numbers - there are 9 of us, it is 7-2. Vote yourself into the coalition. There are 3 scenarios:

0 scum: Town wins. Yay!
1-2 scum: from each town player's POV, there is at least 1 scum inside a pool of 4 where town has 3 muslims available. If there is only 1 scum, you get 3 shots to hit scum where eliminating randomly you have a 75% chance of hitting scum in those 3 eliminations (probability is 1 minus the chance of hitting town 3 times in a row, so 1 - (3/4 * 2/3 * 1/2), cancel out the fractions you get 1 - 1/4, or 3/4, or 75%.

And that's the worst case. There's a chance there are 2 scum in the coalition which makes it a 100% chance to hit 1 scum in the first 3 eliminations from a town POV.

Players avoiding the coalition are avoiding the thunderdome and are playing to the scum wincon, which is to send a sacrificial goat to the coalition and have a deepwolf outside to close the game.

That’s assuming it fails yes.

I am more for using the coalition to see if the popular vibes are correct. If we get 5 town awesome but if we fail then the excluded become the voice of reason.

[MathBlade]

Just throwing townreads to whoever is willing to work with you is not going to find you 5 town.

Kyo is town. Give me more of the wordy word goodness.

[cyrus62]

so here is my thought. pav knew save was town. by him pushing him there . it looks like he was reading him . pav was healing yessree till i looked like he was scum read. then math comes back throws some post pav town reads him. pav + math maybe. ssbm +math encant + math idk but math is scum .

[MathBlade]

Won't heal ebbs only person to ask to be in the five like 3 post why should we trust your town.

Because when I'm town it is obvious so I'm a good candidate for the coalition regardless of my.alignment. easy to catch if scum, easy to clear if town.

And if you're scum then the coalition fails.

something about ssbm's posts bother me

Kinda sorta feel the same, but they're only a couple posts deep.

The good thing about this is round 1 isn't necessarily about finding scum, it's about finding town.

Ssbm doesn't feel town yet.

Implying I will feel town later?

VOTE: kyo
This is literally shading someone over their choice of words.

Also I'm pondering hakai's comment on Cyrus scumrange. Going to check back to owner's market blitz. It had a similar town-finding mechanic where players elected a market owner as well as voted for an elim on D1.

Slightly +town for this observation.

If someone does not vote themselves into the coalition in this game it is against the town wincon and serves the scum wincon.

Consider the numbers - there are 9 of us, it is 7-2. Vote yourself into the coalition. There are 3 scenarios:

0 scum: Town wins. Yay!
1-2 scum: from each town player's POV, there is at least 1 scum inside a pool of 4 where town has 3 muslims available. If there is only 1 scum, you get 3 shots to hit scum where eliminating randomly you have a 75% chance of hitting scum in those 3 eliminations (probability is 1 minus the chance of hitting town 3 times in a row, so 1 - (3/4 * 2/3 * 1/2), cancel out the fractions you get 1 - 1/4, or 3/4, or 75%.

And that's the worst case. There's a chance there are 2 scum in the coalition which makes it a 100% chance to hit 1 scum in the first 3 eliminations from a town POV.

Players avoiding the coalition are avoiding the thunderdome and are playing to the scum wincon, which is to send a sacrificial goat to the coalition and have a deepwolf outside to close the game.

While this is a valid mech observation it also relies on you being town.

@mod I never healed Farren

That's showing me healing you, not you healing me.

Oops.

HURT: Hakai
HEAL: ssbm_Kyouko

Why?

Yet

Alright idk if scum jokes about this immediately after I call it out. I think Pav was scum in Dead Silence but that was a lolgame and I learned nothing. Leaning town here possibly.

This observation seems more likely to come from town.
VOTE: Nathann/v]

seems pretty NAI especially if someone is aware of their meta

could also just be a complete lie

Breaking one's meta - even when aware of it - is easier said than done. Especially as scum. It's not impossible, but it is challenging. Especially over the long haul.

The complete lie is certainly possible - although if it is a lie, it's one that could be disproven with a solid meta-dive. Would be pretty risky at this point - it's early enough in the game that there's plenty of time to metadive her and disprove it, if it's false.

It's not a lie, I've played many games with her. The only problem is that scum Kyo doesn't really get scumread unless you know her meta.
Thinking about it, I actually have a lot of experience with everyone in this playerlist except yessiree and Farren.

Your reads suck but you’re town. Kyo is town here imho

[Save The Dragons]

maybe you have trouble reading me, MB

[cyrus62]

truth is if math is town he . he is bloody awful at it. if he is scum he is good at it and getting him or ssbm in the 5 seems to be his plan then he plans on blameing the others for it failing.

[Save The Dragons]

he's not awful at town and he's really good at mechanics

i just think he doesn't know how to read me

[MathBlade]

Save the dragons is right I play mafia the same way I live I post what's ever on my mind . But I also try to get town fighting each other so I can be the voice of reason lol.

And look at who is trying to claim themselves as the voice of reason.

This reads very much like truthtelling scum.

[MathBlade]

Convice me ssbm is town.

Convince me she’s scum. She’s the second player I have mind melded with.

[MathBlade]

I'm telling you lot I am scum gee how many times do I have to say it.

I believe you’re scum.

[MathBlade]

@mod, what happens if a Coalition is not locked in by deadline? Is plurality in effect, or does no Coalition occur?

No coalition occurs and the game continues as a mountainous, same as if a coalition fails. Will update the rules to clear this up.

If a majority of players want an extension I can grant one though.

How do we vote for an extension? PM?

[MathBlade]

truth is if math is town he . he is bloody awful at it. if he is scum he is good at it and getting him or ssbm in the 5 seems to be his plan then he plans on blameing the others for it failing.

Again I lack a plan. Halfway jokingly debating giving you what you want as the coalition. Majority of the game townreads you imho incorrectly.

Either A we win or B you put me in the Thunderdome and we 1v1 or C you keep me out of it and I tunnel you. None of this seems bad to me.

[MathBlade]

Kinda curious where I know Hakai from. I don’t remember playing with Hakai

[Save The Dragons]

hakai is an alt that claims to know us all

[MathBlade]

hakai is an alt that claims to know us all

I mean like duh but just more curiosity.

I wish them fun and alt hunting is bad but I am curious.

I just wish I had better town games on MS.

On other sites I am good town and scum.

[Nathann]

Math, what do you find Townie/mindmeldy about Kyouko and Hakai? Because the two of them are (right now, at least) the two I absolutely want to keep out of my Coalition, and I would like to know if I am wrong on that.

[MathBlade]

Math, what do you find Townie/mindmeldy about Kyouko and Hakai? Because the two of them are (right now, at least) the two I absolutely want to keep out of my Coalition, and I would like to know if I am wrong on that.

Kyo’s mechanics seem to come from a Townie mindset I like what she’s doing there.

Hakai while I disagree with the reads seems genuine and I can see the townieness.

[Nathann]

This is a simple open setup, there's not much in mechanics this game that Scum couldn't replicate. Why do you find that worthy of a Townread?

And also, like, I can't see the genuineness from Hakai, that's why I am asking. :/

[Save The Dragons]

nathann needs to be in the coalition

[MathBlade]

This is a simple open setup, there's not much in mechanics this game that Scum couldn't replicate. Why do you find that worthy of a Townread?

And also, like, I can't see the genuineness from Hakai, that's why I am asking. :/

Just because a setup is open doesn’t mean people can’t have thoughts about it.

I am going to make an extreme suggestion to make a point.

Say a setup has a rule where there’s scum in one of two players.

More than likely just elim both is the right way to go.

But someone else could make the argument that’s a bad idea.

Generally you elim within a 50/50.

We have had several discussions regarding mechanics and hers matched my thoughts.

And I don’t know how to explain it but I feel it.

[cyrus62]

I'm telling you lot I am scum gee how many times do I have to say it.

I believe you’re scum.

lmao . he just trigger my trap and you guys dont know if he is scum . shakes head you know what i'll do you guys one better if you think him and ssbm are town go for it. but when it fails dont blame me. HURT: all btw i said that to see who would push me for it.

[Save The Dragons]

cyrus what do you think of the coalition nathann math and i have

[Nathann]

I'm gonna give Math a chance to finish reading the game and to then give thoughts, but I would be lying if I said I got a good feeling from anything I've read from him (irl) today. Which contrasts the earlier read I had, but hmm... Game hard.

[Nathann]

I want to say that I am hoping that Math is just wrong Town and that everything is fine, but I'm not sure if I have that much faith in my own reads so far.

[MathBlade]

I'm gonna give Math a chance to finish reading the game and to then give thoughts, but I would be lying if I said I got a good feeling from anything I've read from him (irl) today. Which contrasts the earlier read I had, but hmm... Game hard.

I did finish.

If you don’t like me then don’t put me in the coalition.

I am town then the coalition likely fails and we demonstrate that I am likely town.

I fail to see the problem here.

Cyrus is scum who has not answered my questions several times now.

Then he goes off about a “trap”.

I literally do not care who goes in. I am hoping we win but expecting it to fail long as Cyrus is in it.