Final Fantasy XIV - A Realm Reborn Mafia (Game Over)

[Bell]

Randomly posting to keep up appearances, I actually haven't read a single page of this game.
I don't even know who I'm responding to.

[RealCheeks]

Assuming MB is the elim we need either StD or Dwlee or whatever other scumread to leave the raid to force scum to NK outside the raid and do the flipping we want done for us.
~C

[Bell]

Which players are outside of the raid?

Realcheeks, who else?

[Mandelbrot]

Assuming MB is the elim we need either StD or Dwlee or whatever other scumread to leave the raid to force scum to NK outside the raid and do the flipping we want done for us.
~C

dwlee stays.

- House

[Dwlee99]

I've declared myself obvtown

[Bell]

STD won't leave the raid and he knows MB is the lim today.

[RealCheeks]

Then town flips the remaining player and it's auto from there.
~C

[Bell]

Seriously though, who isn't in the raid that's still alive other than Cheeks.

[RealCheeks]

I mean we could elim StD and ask MB to stay off.
~C

[Bell]

So is the idea here to confirm Mastina's ability by having one player less than the needed number of players to fill the raid so she can activate her ability to prove it works how she said it did?
How does that clear anyone else tho.

[Dwlee99]

So is the idea here to confirm Mastina's ability by having one player less than the needed number of players to fill the raid so she can activate her ability to prove it works how she said it did?
How does that clear anyone else tho.

We should let it be full. Seriously, if someone is scum on the wagon they have to kill outside anyway. If you think I'm scum why does it matter if I'm on or off the wagon if you don't even want someone else on it to avoid them being murderized, it makes no sense

[Bell]

I forgot Tictac was still here.

[Bell]

I just want the reasoning laid out. If there's an advantage to this action, I'm for it.

[tictac]

So is the idea here to confirm Mastina's ability by having one player less than the needed number of players to fill the raid so she can activate her ability to prove it works how she said it did?
How does that clear anyone else tho.

it clears mastina, cause passing of raids is very tied to the WoL role by toogs spec, and would not be a scum ability anyways.
clearing mastina is plenty imo.

[RealCheeks]

So is the idea here to confirm Mastina's ability by having one player less than the needed number of players to fill the raid so she can activate her ability to prove it works how she said it did?
How does that clear anyone else tho.

I think it's best to fill the raid to ensure success. It's not so much clearing as it is giving us the opportunity to check the PoEs based on both the roleblocker and strongman theories.

If StD is town then RB is in a smaller pool, if MB and I both flip Town then Strongman is on the raid. If MB flips scum and we get NK'd then you lim whoever is left which leaves final scum in raid. This raid succeeding saves us wasting an elim on the current scum pool.
~C

[tictac]

The raid will automatically fail if it is not full, and I assume mastina's ability can't supersede that.

She has claimed that it can.

Not worth the risk today, if she had another shot test another day if she doesn't oh well let her get to elo and so probably wouldn't end game. With the PRs dwindling the slot is bound to be resolved at some point. And even if the test worked I'm not sure what that proves.
~C

the opportunity will be gone after today.
and i would consider it a clear if she passed.

[Bell]

Mastina.
Thoughts on this?

[mastina]

who are all the folks who agree w you about QR? I must have missed them.

I don't remember, honestly.

And what's up with that?

There's no contradiction in being unable to submit due to being at work and really not wanting to submit anyway. The two augment each other, not contradict each other. I didn't want to submit the guaranteed success yesterday, but I also COULDN'T even if I did want to (which I didn't).

So um...there are some contradictions we've noticed concerning mastina. Like this one

Yume you have access to the PT where I made the thoughts originally. It's partially an oversight on my part, partially an accounting error in translating the case from the PT to the thread, because originally I wasn't sure RealCheeks was town and actually thought RealCheeks was scum but you should have access to the reasons which make me think town and not want to not eliminate there. (As a refresher, that'd be 11.)

I don't think RealCheeks is scum now; RealCheeks isn't in my pool at all.

(Btw another reason I think Mystic Bears is scum: unironically, I feel like basically any scumteam in this game would've had incentive to kill me. Maybe, MAYBE not N1, but every night after that, I should've been a possibility.
[...]
The list of people who don't have reason to nightkill me is then narrowed down to:
{Bell, tictac, Tomorrow Corporation, Mystic Bears}.
Keep in mind also that the known dead and flipped scum could also be calling for my head. It'd take a remaining scum

overriding

the dead scum to not kill me early here.

Bell tends to just go with the flow of the scumteam--he would not be the one to override SirCakez/Elsa/Wheme/etc. on nightkilling me. So we can safely remove him.

Meaning there's precisely three players who wouldn't nightkill me early on:
{tictac, Tomorrow Corporation, Mystic Bears}.

Mystic Bears, both because Flea likes to play with me and can often subvert my efforts, and because Noraa thought I was a PGO role (which would thus, be a bad nightkill).

Eh, boring.
Regarding me, yea I don't kill you N1 in most cases, because I'm reasonably sure I can stay out of your PoE and EC Mafia was beautiful but has probably left you a little paranoid around me. If I can't stay out of your PoE then I absolutely have to NK you because you will find me and bust me. While I am able to subvert your efforts on occasion, it doesn't happen nearly as much as you'd think.

If as scum I have no input in the NK, then I'm either scum with people who are disregarding my input (unwnds harbinger game) which is a lot of potential associatives from D1 - or - this is my slankiest game ever as an alignment we both know I love to play.

So there's actually something very important about this, and it's not obvious on a glance.

Read Mystic Bears's 5817.

Notice something?

It's quoting,

what it is quoting

"In post 5797, mastina"

Why's that important?

Because THIS is 5797:

(Btw another reason I think Mystic Bears is scum: unironically, I feel like basically any scumteam in this game would've had incentive to kill me. Maybe, MAYBE not N1, but every night after that, I should've been a possibility.

...Unless scum, via having a scum bodyguard, were worried that I was a PGO, and by the time they realized I wasn't, they had higher-priority MUST-kills to make first.)

Notice something about the difference between Mystic Bears's quoted 5797 and the actual 5797?

You should; they aren't the same.

What Flea (the Mystic Bears head who wrote this) is

actually

quoting, is either 5799 or, far more likely, my immediate pagetop requote of that, 5800.

When you quote a post that has multiple quotes, it's quite easy to keep the contents of the later post but have the quote link be from the earlier post.

Why's this important?

Because it means that it was edited to leave out the fact that it was quoting a later post.

Why do I think that's so important?

Well let's go quote my 5800 and have a certain line from it be highlighted:

(Btw another reason I think Mystic Bears is scum: unironically, I feel like basically any scumteam in this game would've had incentive to kill me. Maybe, MAYBE not N1, but every night after that, I should've been a possibility.

...Unless scum, via having a scum bodyguard, were worried that I was a PGO, and by the time they realized I wasn't, they had higher-priority MUST-kills to make first.)

To elaborate on this:

Nancy Drew is

terrified

of me when she's scum.
You might think, "but mastina, aren't you townreading her? If she's scum, isn't that enough to keep you alive?"
Well that's the thing.
At the beginning of the game...I wasn't.
I later moved them up to here, but I wasn't townreading them even there.
Even after I moved them up to here, I still wasn't locktowning them.
That was actually my last readslist of the day, even though I later said they were unlikely scum.

Does Nancy, who is TERRIFIED of me when she's scum, not strongman me N1 when she KNOWS I was suspicious of her play and she KNOWS that she can't keep up the townness the entire game?

I think not. She'd be pushing for my death pretty damn heavily.

Does either of {Mandelbrot, Toogeloo} leave me alive if they were scum?
Well Mandelbrot has House who knows I'm inclined to scumread him nowadays and Yume who is TERRIFIED of me when she's scum, and Toogeloo similarly knows that I tend to scumread them regardless of their alignment. So I shouldn't live with either of those slots as scum.

How about Dwlee99? Probably not, as Dwlee has had personal experience with what leaving me alive for too long has done to them as scum. They've directly lost games they could have won, specifically because they

almost

nightkilled me early, but ultimately chose not to. I'd like to think that Dwlee, if scum, has learned from their mistakes and would not repeat the same mistake again and would advocate for my death.

STD?
It took me until, what, D4 to not scumread STD? I was pushing STD as a SirCakez scumbuddy even before D2's guilty on SirCakez. While STD might not have the same respect for me as the other scummers, the fact that I was scumreading STD for the majority of the game certainly lends credence to the idea that STD wouldn't justify leaving me alive.

The list of people who don't have reason to nightkill me is then narrowed down to:
{Bell, tictac, Tomorrow Corporation, Mystic Bears}.
Keep in mind also that the known dead and flipped scum could also be calling for my head. It'd take a remaining scum

overriding

the dead scum to not kill me early here.

Bell tends to just go with the flow of the scumteam--he would not be the one to override SirCakez/Elsa/Wheme/etc. on nightkilling me. So we can safely remove him.

Meaning there's precisely three players who wouldn't nightkill me early on:
{tictac, Tomorrow Corporation, Mystic Bears}.

Mystic Bears, both because Flea likes to play with me and can often subvert my efforts, and because Noraa thought I was a PGO role (which would thus, be a bad nightkill).

May as well pagetop this but

I'd like to remind you that the real case is in my prior pagetop; 5775.

If this is the post Flea quoted, as I suspect, and Flea edited the post into what you see in 5817, then that means that Flea not acknowledging the

actual

case is deliberately malevolent on faer part.

[mastina]

I think rb may possibly have been an X shot because why wouldn’t you have been roleblocked?

Why would I be roleblocked?

Especially if scum thought I was a PGO, they wouldn't roleblock or kill me.

I claimed previously that I was RB-immune. That was a fib on my part, but scum wouldn't know until I said as much yesterday.

Literally the first night they could've roleblocked me is last night, but I don't have a way of knowing if they did or not at this very moment. (That said, I DO have a need to ask the mod a question, one my dummy dum dum self should've asked a long time ago but neglected to do until just now.)

Do you really think I'd let myself be caught mechanically?

At the time, no!
You'd not let yourself be immediately caught by mechanics.
Inadvertently not realizing the town could POE things down the line?

That's not something ANY scum player, no matter HOW mechanically-gifted they are, can avoid.

If you THINK you're mechanically safe, but it later turns out you're not, I don't care how good you think you are at mechanics. Both heads of Reasonably Rational, Jingle, other mechanical-gods, geniuses of mechanics and manipulating them as scum. NOBODY is immune to getting caught down the line for making a play they initially thought they couldn't get caught from.

Plus, to some extent, it's also something not fully under your control, as other scum enter into the picture with what they did. You can control your own mechanical position; you can suggest positions for your scumbuddies, but scumbuddies ultimately do not necessarily listen to your advice, and thus, no amount of mechanical prowess on your part can prevent the combination of misplays from scumbuddies and later town POE information from catching what was originally a safe play and then becoming caught mechanically.

However, it's not even a surefire thing that scum did not do what you wanted. It's possible they didn't act as you asked, but it's also possible they

did

, and you just didn't account for

every

variable. You're not omnipotent. No mechanics-oriented player is. They can coordinate what they

think

to be the optimal play is, and then end up later proven wrong, only realizing they made a mistake in hindsight.

do you really think I'd hang around in a game again when I'm getting mechanically screwed by my team?

For multiple reasons? Yes. You're not going to bail on Noraa here, and it wasn't until basically today that you were mechanically caught. You would have no reason to have bailed previously and even had you, Noraa is enough reason to have talked you out of it, thinking it was salvageable. Because it is.

Plus, beyond that, there's a matter of sportsmanship.

It's generally considered poor form to replace out of a game as one of the last scum when you are likely to go down sooner rather than later--you know this, Flea, so why WOULD you replace out? You have literally every reason NOT to.

Do you really think me and Noraa would be so... Naive? as to just openwolf and guard like that?

Explicitly so, yes.

[mastina]

Mastina. Thoughts on this?

I mean the other half of my role is pretty damn clearing in of itself so I don't feel the need to clear myself from making an undersized raid succeed. (And Mandelbrot and Toog both saw my fullclaim so can vouch for that.)

But while I don't think my role needs to be proven, I really don't care--I'm making the raid succeed, and with the scum (presumably) out of strongman shots, that limits their kill pool.

So I don't care one way or another. Undersized raid proves me but scum can't kill me due to my BP until N7; full raid doesn't prove me but scum's kill pool is even smaller. Doesn't really matter to me, one way or another, because I've done my job regardless.

[Mandelbrot]

I'd prefer tictac join raid, after they're in the queue, lim StD.

If StD flips scum, mastina's actions go forward as planned.

If StD flips town, mastina consider changing course based on the flip. She knows what i mean.

[Mandelbrot]

I'd prefer tictac join raid, after they're in the queue, lim StD.

If StD flips scum, mastina's actions go forward as planned.

If StD flips town, mastina consider changing course based on the flip. She knows what i mean.

- House

[Mystic Bears]

Seeing the posts from today, I have some thoughts and then I'm dipping off. I don't have any tasks to do today but I don't really think anything else that I could say today is useful. This post ihas the things I think are important.

If we elim me today, look at Tomorrow the following day. He shouldn't be scum reading me here if my alt guess is correct, which he basically explicitly said was true. I don't want to out the main and would prefer people don't speculate on it but his alignment is something that is probably not town. Ydrasse TRing him is the only reason he is town, if he is town. I disagree with Massy on Realcheeks. I think they're scum here. There's a counterargument of but they look bad for being wobbly on you. Yeah but it's really one of the few ways to make sure I die first which leads to more opportunities/at the very least, one more day. Everyone that says Realcheeky town is off the basis that I am scum but I know I'm not. But even when I flip green, I still think people will think Realcheeky is town and thats why I think they are probably scum. Like their position in the game has gone from shaky to pretty solid. That's not typically a town thing unless there was a shift in something or another. Don't see why Nancy ever sticks her neck out for me as scum. I have some paranoia on Gamma but it's not stronger than my townread on Nancy. STD is in a similar place. If Bell isn't town vig, Bell could be scum. Unless there's specific stuff in the pts that I'm missing, I don't think his activity is above and beyond. Half the posts are just like "I have no time for this game" + 20% of a content post. There's more but it's not as important.

At the end of the day, getting no reply from Bell means no one in this game is able to confirm my role. I have quite some paranoia on a lot of slots, most of which are probably town. My role isn't provable and I have nothing to back myself up with besides my meta and crumbs. It doesn't really matter if I die today or tomorrow but if I die tomorrow, I want a pt with Massy tonight. Explicitly that. If I die today, it's a good reset button at the least and we aren't losing a powerful role so it's not the end of the world. After I'm outed, I'm basically negative utility anyways

[Mandelbrot]

if I die tomorrow, I want a pt with Massy tonight. Explicitly that.

That's explicitly up to mastina, as far as I'm concerned.

- House

[Save The Dragons]

I'm not dying today