Mini 2247: Mountain Dew Mafia (Game Over)

[Cabd]

Vote Count 1-2

Mountain Dew is owned by the Pepsi company but depending on where you live, may co-bottle with the Doctor Pepper brands, as well. Different regions have different sets. If you're curious, see next time there's a sale if the Dr. Pepper products match the Pepsi products and can mix and match.

Dunnstral (4): Gamma Emerald, Wisdom, Lady Lambdadelta, E. M. M. I.
Venus Fly Trap (1): Towelie
Gamma Emerald (1); StrangeMatter
Toogeloo (1): MUSHSHAGANA, Critter
Towelie (1): Venus Fly Trap
E. M. M. I.(1): Toogeloo

Not Voting (3): Milk & Mocha, Dunnstral, Something_Smart

With 13 players alive, it takes 7 votes to eliminate a flavor.

Current Deadline: (expired on 2021-11-02 20:02:57)

[Gamma Emerald]

Like I think in a dunn scum world you have to at least believe it's not so beloved to the mod that it'd be not in the game at all and a fakeclaim instead.

I don't believe in a world where scum roles are anything but non mountain dew drinks at this point with mountain dew drink fakeclaims; it just makes the scum alighment being "competitor brand" extremely sloppy if this isn't the case.

That said if LLD has something that contradicts this I'll revisit when that time comes, but before that happens i'll mostly be basing my dunn read off of this interaction and not anything nebulously setup related because the pieces don't fit correctly atm.

That first line is wherin my issue lies.

My role cannot cannot cannot exist if a true claim Code Red can exist in this game and have that level of town clearing on it.

It simply cannot.

Okay, that just means flavor is not indicative of alignment? Which is a consistent thing across most ms theme games?

[Gamma Emerald]

VOTE: Extraplanetary Multiform Mobile Identifier, aka E.M.M.I.

Metroidvania games are my thing. Gotta take out my enemies. Plus, not a fan of the sheep vote on Dunn.

PEdit: you went 0/3, so. You're the type of player I immediately put my trust guard up around regardless though.

So you're assuming LLD is wrong town?

[E. M. M. I.]

So what exactly does Dunnstral do as either alignment?

[Towelie]

like for real, I will fucking order a terrible towel off amazon if scum flips and it flips as a mountain dew flavor

(this is not a real out of game wager i would never ever actually do this)

[Toogeloo]

So you're assuming LLD is wrong town?

I'm assuming Dunn.is town, and LLD is either wrong or scum.

[E. M. M. I.]

Huh. I totally knew that Dunnstral wagon was that large already. I wonder what gave me an impression that I was a second vote on the wagon? Well it matters very little. I am currently "sheeping" after all.

[Towelie]

I'm assuming Dunn.is town

just for claiming flavor?

that seems, i dunno, really obviously flimsy?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

VOTE: Extraplanetary Multiform Mobile Identifier, aka E.M.M.I.

Metroidvania games are my thing. Gotta take out my enemies. Plus, not a fan of the sheep vote on Dunn.

PEdit: you went 0/3, so. You're the type of player I immediately put my trust guard up around regardless though.

I went 0/3 in one game where on Day 1 I had Dunn and Cabd as a hard townread and so they got to manipulate my reads.

I also won that game, in the end. I've also led deaths on scum day 1 plenty of times.

It's literally just a game where my strongest town reads were scum and got under my guard and I had to re-evaluate later in days. That's fine, that's meant to happen sometimes.

You're being pretty results oriented...

Question! Considering the results-orientation of Toogeloo and your apparent critique of it:

Is it fair or unfair for someone to take past results and use them to judge future performance? Is it more fair to take the sum of all results, functionally assuming inability to adjust, or to take an average over the most recent results, allowing recent bad runs to overshadow a longer good run? Are results less important than reads that simply follow the confident, or are they less important?

Do you think our moderators/reviewers would purposefully select flavor that was exactly divided on scum-town lines, allowing a massclaim to break the game open, or would they select flavor that would purposefully hamper attempts to divine alignment through flavor?

All of these are honest questions I'm very curious to hear your answers to, and almost more importantly, /how/ you answer them.

Past results can be used to judge performance, and obviously more recent weightings are more crucial than years gone by, but no one game is a good indication of someone's ability to play mafia on the whole, just an example of it. Even my best played scum and town games aren't a single point that can indicate how I am at the game, it's my record of evidence as scum that really sells me as one of the best scum players on the site, and some of the records we've done.

As town, I have strengths and weaknesses, same as my scum, but the real goal for town and scum is to look at not just an aggregate of results but of how you play. I think a recent bad run is indicative that something has changed for a player either personally or in their opponents, and they may need to change, just like how killing townies day 1 means yuo are on a wrong path and need to change.

I think Cabd would refuse to allow a massclaim to break the game, or at least would prevent the named townie syndrome from happening. Given my role, I'm pretty confident that either there are some flavours in the game that you expect to be there that won't (see: Code Red) or that some of the Mtn Dew flavours won't be town.

[StrangeMatter]

Idk, I don't get a good feeling in my gut about the Dunnstral wagon, with how much traction it's gaining at this point.

Catching up soon.

[E. M. M. I.]

Just curious; how popular is/was Mountain Dew DEW*S*A?

[Critter]

Apologies if this has been asked my insects are going everywhere.

If what LLD says is true, as I don’t think she does what she did as scum,
Then the problem I have is I also don’t see Dunn claiming something that would make him obviously scum either.

Dunn tends to be a reserved quiet player and uninfluential as scum. Code Red claiming seems to be rather attention seeking whatever it is.
This is a conflict.
Therefore if anyone townreads Dunn I would expect those players to be of similar alignment. Eg if Dunn is town, person townreading Dunn is town and if Dunn scum person scum.

More of these reads will come out as more people post which is why I don’t want Dunn/LLD clogging the game with a ton of posts. It’s clear LLD thinks Dunn is scum for role related reasons and therefore unlikely to change her mind. Whatever LLD’s alignment Dunn has to go with she is mistaken or scum. I think what is valuable is who does what where.

[Towelie]

Wisdom's vote on dunn is definitively rvs
Gamma's might just be inertial from rvs (although you should clarify)

I dont think wagon traction is a great tell here

[Towelie]

Therefore if anyone townreads Dunn I would expect those players to be of similar alignment. Eg if Dunn is town, person townreading Dunn is town and if Dunn scum person scum.

This makes basically no sense to me

[Critter]

Therefore if anyone townreads Dunn I would expect those players to be of similar alignment. Eg if Dunn is town, person townreading Dunn is town and if Dunn scum person scum.

This makes basically no sense to me

Dunn’s scum meta is to blend in. It’s not “Hey look at how amazingly town I am” or hyperpost the thread. It’s cool and collected. This going away from it and going “I am code red” seriously is a departure.

That means either he is town or he is departing from that and wanting attention intentionally like rolefishing or trying to break meta or some reason I can’t think of.

Based on this departure from his meta you can get reads from how people respond to that departure since a lot of people here have played with Dunn before.

[Gamma Emerald]

Wisdom's vote on dunn is definitively rvs
Gamma's might just be inertial from rvs (although you should clarify)

I dont think wagon traction is a great tell here

yeah mine's still just RVS
I like the logic of Dunn claiming early being out-of-line with scum!dunn's MO, that is to say I think Critter's evaluation of Dunn's scum MO is accurate and the logic from there is reasonable

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Therefore if anyone townreads Dunn I would expect those players to be of similar alignment. Eg if Dunn is town, person townreading Dunn is town and if Dunn scum person scum.

This makes basically no sense to me

I see a missing logical conclusion. Namely, more people seem to be saying Dunn is town than not (which is based admittedly on an exaggerated reading of the thread), which logically closes off Dunn being scum.

What makes this a problem is the lack of commitment to Dunn not being scum, and not finishing the thought. That's a technique I use to manipulate people, and its a common way to manipulate people in general -- you leave an open hole. People think it through, sensing something unsaid, reach the conclusion on their own, and that sticks better than if the speaker had just come out and said it to start with. Furthermore, the people who come to that conclusion will be more likely to believe they came up with it by themselves, allowing the person speaking to dodge responsibility.

VOTE: Critter

Let's see if anyone comes to the conclusion I have, and if they see how I did it. Note: don't just assume the obvious option for what conclusion I've come to.

[Critter]

viewtopic.php?f=23&t=87781&user_select%5B%5D=36175

Here is an example where he was Knight Beige. He was focused on leaving warm fuzzies with people.

So I am going to shut up and see how people respond. Because I think it will be telling for Dunn’s LLD’s and a few people’s alignments.

[Gamma Emerald]

UNVOTE:

[Critter]

Therefore if anyone townreads Dunn I would expect those players to be of similar alignment. Eg if Dunn is town, person townreading Dunn is town and if Dunn scum person scum.

This makes basically no sense to me

I see a missing logical conclusion. Namely, more people seem to be saying Dunn is town than not (which is based admittedly on an exaggerated reading of the thread), which logically closes off Dunn being scum.

What makes this a problem is the lack of commitment to Dunn not being scum, and not finishing the thought. That's a technique I use to manipulate people, and its a common way to manipulate people in general -- you leave an open hole. People think it through, sensing something unsaid, reach the conclusion on their own, and that sticks better than if the speaker had just come out and said it to start with. Furthermore, the people who come to that conclusion will be more likely to believe they came up with it by themselves, allowing the person speaking to dodge responsibility.

VOTE: Critter

Let's see if anyone comes to the conclusion I have, and if they see how I did it. Note: don't just assume the obvious option for what conclusion I've come to.

I mean, yes, I have not drawn a conclusion either way, this is true. One can say I am rather indecisive. But I have been consistently working away from snap judgments. I won’t make a decision on anyone until I feel I can definitely say so.

[Towelie]

I don't have any issue with what you're saying in 114, although I think the meta deviation thing is a little overblown in general; he flavor claimed. It's...seriously within the realm of basically anyone's play given the right circumstances.

I'm having a harder time how you're getting the positive or negative interactions between other players and dunn based on dunn's own alignment, some of which have to obviously not know his alignment beforehand and evaluate it based on their interpretations of all of this. I think a town player could potentially come to either conclusion right here is what I'm saying.

[Critter]

Secondly, there’s nothing to finish.

If Dunn is town is LLD scum? Maybe? Maybe not? LLD could be gambiting or just going off her gut.
If Dunn is scum is LLD town? Maybe? Maybe not? LLD could be gambiting because Dunn was like “oh shit scum again”.

I won’t rush to a conclusion until things boil. That’s why I said expect. Not certain.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

Therefore if anyone townreads Dunn I would expect those players to be of similar alignment. Eg if Dunn is town, person townreading Dunn is town and if Dunn scum person scum.

This makes basically no sense to me

I see a missing logical conclusion. Namely, more people seem to be saying Dunn is town than not (which is based admittedly on an exaggerated reading of the thread), which logically closes off Dunn being scum.

What makes this a problem is the lack of commitment to Dunn not being scum, and not finishing the thought. That's a technique I use to manipulate people, and its a common way to manipulate people in general -- you leave an open hole. People think it through, sensing something unsaid, reach the conclusion on their own, and that sticks better than if the speaker had just come out and said it to start with. Furthermore, the people who come to that conclusion will be more likely to believe they came up with it by themselves, allowing the person speaking to dodge responsibility.

VOTE: Critter

Let's see if anyone comes to the conclusion I have, and if they see how I did it. Note: don't just assume the obvious option for what conclusion I've come to.

I mean, yes, I have not drawn a conclusion either way, this is true. One can say I am rather indecisive. But I have been consistently working away from snap judgments. I won’t make a decision on anyone until I feel I can definitely say so.

Let's say I don't believe you. What's your argument that you aren't manipulating the playerlist?

[Critter]

I don't have any issue with what you're saying in 114, although I think the meta deviation thing is a little overblown in general; he flavor claimed. It's...seriously within the realm of basically anyone's play given the right circumstances.

I'm having a harder time how you're getting the positive or negative interactions between other players and dunn based on dunn's own alignment, some of which have to obviously not know his alignment beforehand and evaluate it based on their interpretations of all of this. I think a town player could potentially come to either conclusion right here is what I'm saying.

There’s certain interactions I look for as TVS or SVT or similarly aligned. I don’t think there’s enough here to make a determination either way on alignment. Those who defend a person who have been accused (I don’t want to say guiltied as I don’t know) combined with the meta shift tend to be of similar alignment. Always? No.

I use those foundations to build reads. Combine it with who a person wants to elim now sans nuance and you can get a clear picture of who scum is.

It’s weird and takes a while to develop but it works for me.

Pedit: I am not? I don’t really have an argument for what I am not doing.

[MUSHSHAGANA]

I am not? I don’t really have an argument for what I am not doing.

Fair enough.

Still waiting to see if anyone figures out what I've decided.