Normal Large 237

[fua]

Big money take is that it’s Alice, Aaron, and Jackson.

[Aaron]

Also also also, your scenario of the JK being able to confirm a town is inherently flawed because it requires the JK to out themselves to confirm an almost certainly less valuable townie, thus meaning that they get NKed and we lose a PR for no reason.

Incorrect. Nearing elo, JK outing confirmed town is a very good thing. I am not saying that JK should out prematurely as that does not benefit town at all. And either way, both will be confirmed town and even a confirmed vt is dangerous to scum. If JK gets a clear early on, the only scenario where they should out it is if the townie gets under pressure. It is also crucial to crumb things like this because the flip will get town digging.

If vig notices that only their shot went through and JK thinks the shot was the vigs, the guilty should be from the JK since no objection means the vig agrees with the conclusion.

Anyways we shouldn't discuss too much setup since it gives room to WIFOM.

[Three]

Hey, Three.. if I was to TR you for absolutely no reason... will I regret my decision post-game?

I hope not, but probably. I predict that I'll get shit pushed Day 1, I'll flip green, then you'll be accused of TMI.

[AliceK]

I am not against policy liming problematic slots day 1, but only if there is no other viable options.

VOTE: Three
He is pushing lowposters, not giving much other reads especially townreads. Also conversation about mechanics is a cheap way to get towncred, sone scums do that.

Yeah his last post is ate... yeah I think it is good choice he flips scum

[Aaron]

Anyway, that’s pretty much the answer to my own post about N_M, so I’ll switch.

VOTE: Aaron

This is funny. Fua never had a good reason to vote N_M to begin with (it was RVS) but then starts pretending that he does have a reason (the meme claim) and that it was A50's 3 posts that changed their mind. Let's take a look at this progression here.

VOTE: Not_Mafia

RVS vote.

VOTE: Uglyduck

Note that this changes to Uglyduck.

Considering his track record I’m not inclined to believe N_M unless there’s no counterclaim.

This post, again is just bad. On day 1, a claim that comes after two votes, never warrants a cc. The claim didn't even feel genuine to me. A real claim does not look like that and even if it was, this post is still bad. Because town should always want to keep the scum in the dark and pretend like that claim did not happen and brush it away as a joke because at this stage, hiding a claim and constantly repeating that it's a meme claim helps scum also think that.

That’s a good point, but I don’t think any VT would claim to be Vig normally since it means they’re probably going to eat a vig bullet at night.

Again, same point as above.

That’s a good point, but I don’t think any VT would claim to be Vig normally since it means they’re probably going to eat a vig bullet at night.

I don't think it's smart for the Vig to shoot there either way. If N_M is Scum faking he's going to be protected tonight anyway, and the Watcher is there waiting to out the real Vig too. So, if I was the Vig I'd just let it be and try to do something useful instead. If I do flip overnight it's as good as me having CC'd anyway, but if I don't them I'm not outed and I can try again.

P.S. IF N_M is faking he has to be the Strongman, because Doctors can't self-target in Normals, and Watchers can't self-watch either. Now here's the question: Do you think Scum will risk their 1-shot Strongman being eliminated on D1 just to draw out the Vig?? I don't. I thus declare N_M a TOWNIE either way. I just can't tell if he IS the Vig or not.

This is the post that A50 posts that leads fua to just agree. First off, this post is actually much weaker than it's size suggests. It is not smart for Vig to shoot there because it was clearly a meme claim.

N_M does not have to be strongman. People are taking this claim too seriously. If the claim even looked remotely like an actual claim, these points would come into play. But honestly, even if these points come into play, scum never does this on day 1. If any of their non-doctor members claims vig and actually draws the vig shot, they are guaranteed to die the following day. Yes they draw the vig out but it is not a fair trade for scum. This is a large normal. They have so many townies they need dead to win this game. 1 for 1 is not a fair trade.

But because of a post like this that fua doesn't even address point by point, now fua TRs NM?

I feel like this kind of play is exactly the balls to the wall thing N_M would do? But you’re probably better at reading him than I am, so I’ll concede on that front. I’m willing to throw him in as town for now and see how it goes later.

A50 isn't even reading NM by meta like this post suggests. Why are you willing to throw him in as town after a pretty nothing nothing post by A50?

Anyway, that’s pretty much the answer to my own post about N_M, so I’ll switch.

VOTE: Aaron

And then this vote on me comes right after I call one of fua's posts horrible. No context, no reasoning. Earlier there was a RVS vote on fua and they requested reasons. Now we are out of RVS and this vote pops out of nowhere and the reason is that A50 convinced fua that NM is town. But what does that have to do with anything? Fua's vote was on Uglyduckling, not NM.

I won't be very active for the rest of today because I have some work to get done but these are the issues I have with fua. For what it's worth, I do think A50 is always town if Fua isn't because that definitely felt like a pocketing attempt. For now, I will leave my vote with fua VOTE: fua

[Aaron]

Fua, that was a horrible post. No town vig should ever cc here.

This was the post in question. I'll leave you all with that for now and check back in sometime tomorrow.

[AliceK]

I am not against policy liming problematic slots day 1, but only if there is no other viable options.

VOTE: Three
He is pushing lowposters, not giving much other reads especially townreads. Also conversation about mechanics is a cheap way to get towncred, sone scums do that.

Yeah his last post is ate... yeah I think it is good choice he flips scum

* good chance, autocorrect :/

[Dwlee99]

Wagon dissolving with no posting from the person the wagon is on

Yes this is completely natural hmm

[fua]

Literally your entire post was based off of the assumption that N_M's claim was a meme. Have you played with him before? Genuine question.

[fua]

Also, my vote on Uglyduckling was only remaining due to me wanting him to answer my question, but A50's own debunking of my response basically explained that for me.

And I voted you because your argument was weak, not because you're sussing me. You're cutting out context from my posts as well as the logic I have behind them in order to fit your narrative.

[ILUVYTHAN]

VOTE: mozamis

[fua]

Please tell me we aren’t at E-1.

[fua]

Someone please take their vote off now before N_M hammers.

[Aaron]

And I voted you because your argument was weak, not because you're sussing me. You're cutting out context from my posts as well as the logic I have behind them in order to fit your narrative.

there was no context to cut off. you said nothing about me prior to voting me. You're saying that I'm missing things in order to "fit my narrative" when there was nothing to miss and you yourself have replied to none of my posts. Now you're just pretending like you're defending mozamis' wagon so you can say you defended town tomorrow. I'm pretty confident mozamis is town even if only off your stance around them.

[Aaron]

Wagon dissolving with no posting from the person the wagon is on

Yes this is completely natural hmm

No matter how scum indicative silence is for ssbm, I will not be voting a slot with one post. That makes no sense to me and had it gone through, it would've been a zero info flip regardless of flip.

[Aaron]

I'm dropping the gimmick sorry I just don't have the time for it right now.

[Dwlee99]

Wagon dissolving with no posting from the person the wagon is on

Yes this is completely natural hmm

No matter how scum indicative silence is for ssbm, I will not be voting a slot with one post. That makes no sense to me and had it gone through, it would've been a zero info flip regardless of flip.

A wagon forming isn't the same as it going through

This happens every game and for what

[Three]

I am not against policy liming problematic slots day 1, but only if there is no other viable options.

VOTE: Three
He is pushing lowposters, not giving much other reads especially townreads. Also conversation about mechanics is a cheap way to get towncred, sone scums do that.

Yeah his last post is ate... yeah I think it is good choice he flips scum

It's like I can see the future lmaooooo

[Aaron]

Wagon dissolving with no posting from the person the wagon is on

Yes this is completely natural hmm

No matter how scum indicative silence is for ssbm, I will not be voting a slot with one post. That makes no sense to me and had it gone through, it would've been a zero info flip regardless of flip.

A wagon forming isn't the same as it going through

This happens every game and for what

Well I am not aware of this meta and have never seen someone's scum meta just be silence. But if you are correct, in the future I would recommend waiting until ssbm starts posting and then pouncing on them once there's enough posts you can confidently SR. Chances of the wagon going through sky rocket compared to right now where I am very unlikely to be voting ssbm because I don't know about the meta. The fact that most of the wagon formed before ssbm even posted once doesn't make the wagon more appealing either. The meta may be valid but it looks silly to people who don't get it is my point. You didn't ask but oh well I typed this up might as well post it.

[Aaron]

I'll be signing off for the night here. I will say that alicek and three's interaction there was really strange. I was individually TRing both of them prior to it. Now I'm wondering if one is scum and one is town. I'm not sure but it'll be a good thing to think about.

[Dwlee99]

The thing I'm saying is that when Kyo came back I wanted there to be votes on her already. I think I got one or MAYBE two people to vote with me. There was no way that wagon was just going to completely go through because that's not how wagons work.

[Three]

I am not against policy liming problematic slots day 1, but only if there is no other viable options.

VOTE: Three
He is pushing lowposters, not giving much other reads especially townreads. Also conversation about mechanics is a cheap way to get towncred, sone scums do that.

Yeah his last post is ate... yeah I think it is good choice he flips scum

It's like I can see the future lmaooooo

Unironically though this is probably scum. They aren't engaging with me in any way yet think I'm likely to flip scum because I haven't given many reads in a game where barely anyone is playing, let alone giving more than one or two reads.

Also, uh, AtE? Do you know what AtE is...? Or how it's used? Because that isn't it.

VOTE: Alice

Vote to stop the lol hammer and because scum made the dumbest post possible. What you did isn't pressure Alice, it's a proclamation of having zero thought processes behind your vote.

[Three]

I think UglyDuck is Town, he is pushing a controversial opinion (not shooting, not liming as well?) which he should know could open him for attacks. I don't think as scum he would draw attention to himself like that.

Based on fact that Jackson is active and didn't get prodded or replaced out he is very likely Town.

Alice: "Three is scum because he isn't giving out many reads"

Also Alice: has exactly two reads, one of which is based solely on the fact a player posted in the thread

Yeah that wasn't a real read on me Alice.

[LicketyQuickety]

Vote Count 1.03

JacksonVirgo - 0
Almost50 - 0
Aaron - 1: fua
Not_Mafia - 1: mozamis
Dwlee99 - 0
AliceK - 1: Three
ssbm_Kyouko - 1: Almost50
fua - 1: UglyDuck, Aaron
ILUVYTHAN - 0
Ythan - 0
Save The Dragons - 0
mozamis - 5: Save The Dragons, Andresvmb, Dwlee99, Ythan, ILUVYTHAN
Three - 1: AliceK
UglyDuck - 1: Not_Mafia
Andresvmb - 0
No Elim - 0

Not Voting - 2: JacksonVirgo, ssbm_Kyouko

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to Eliminate.

Day 1 Ends in (expired on 2021-11-16 12:15:00).

Mod Notes: Prodding mozamis.

[UglyDuck]

That’s a good point, but I don’t think any VT would claim to be Vig normally since it means they’re probably going to eat a vig bullet at night.

As it is being talked about now - this is the general reasoning of why I did not like you asking dweelee why they would not shoot the claimed Vig. Seemed like a lazy question and talking about something that should not be discussed.
As it has already been discussed, and I do not think it
Essentially, Mafia has a Doctor. If NM is a VT fake claiming Vig to draw a kill, it would assuredly not be from the Vig, because if NM is mafia, NM is going to be protected by the doctor at night. Cool. Except essentially when vig shoots him and there is no death from the vig.... then they are skum. So that would be a horrible play from Mafia.
Or this dude could just be Vig. Or this dude could be VT. Those are the options that mafia would have to be looking at if NM is not mafia (ha).

Since we have a set up that makes a VT claim as Vig actually pretty viable as a good option, I did not like you trying to expand the convo on the topic.