Mafia 83 - Game Ended Scum Win!

[MafiaSSK]

Mana_Ku has requested replacement and bionicchop2 was willing to replace. This will take effect in 5 minutes from this post.

[bionicchop2]

Greetings. Will read the game in the next few days.

unvote

for now.

[bionicchop2]

mod

can I get a replacement friendly vote count

[MafiaSSK]

8th Vote Count(Getting close to deadline! votecount)

Panzerjager-1(Jebus)

Hascow-1(Panzerjager)
Bionicchop2-1(chazworthington)

With 9 Alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Current Deadline:October 23rd

[qwints]

Why is panzer in red?

[MafiaSSK]

Why is panzer in red?

I keep the person who could be lynched if they got the right number of votes in red.

[qwints]

Killer7 appears to be actively lurking. His refusal to make substantial contributions make me suspicious of him. I don't feel like I've got a really solid feel on anything else.

vote:Killer7

[Jebus]

@SSK: But everyone could be lynched if they got the right number of votes

[bionicchop2]

I noticed the deadline and will put the read of this game as my top priority. Got a little done tonight and will try to wrap up tomorrow and place a vote. Slow moving first few pages and I see only 3 votes placed 4 days from deadline, so I get the impression the game pace hasn't increased too much.

[Reclusion]

So... I'm back. Ummm, mod, why did you never find a temporary replacement for me?

I need to read the thread obviously from where I last left off and give my thoughts.

[qwints]

Here's a quick summary of where we are.

Jebus - claimed doc. protected chaz twice.
Panzer - claimed roleblocker. blocked alvinz night one and hazcow night two. Claims hazcow is a sk.

Everyone else - not much.

[bionicchop2]

(all notes written during read)
(I apologize for the final length of this)

Alive
============

Xtoxm

117 - makes an assumption there is a serial killer?
129 - odd post (more number speculation - not scummy on its own). Just odd
183 - says getting a bad feeling about Has

374 - holy vote for alvinz as the first post in ages.

402 - I disagree with the theory of mafia needs to die before SK (if exists). SK as a singular killer can cut the number of night deaths in half if lynched. Downplays the importance of eliminating a threat to the town. Votes Panz (I agree with the vote though)

404 - actually decent logic for why SK over Vig (flavor reasons which I always miss)

Current read: more scummy than town. Content has been low, but does match some previous experience with him. Will need to meta to determine if it is consistent or varies with alignment. Did have a V/LA mixed in.
============
Bionicchop2 Mana_Ku replaced day 3
============

Killa Seven

159 - decent post against Yaw
311 - makes another post!
357 - in just in time to vote for the deadline.

Current read: Obv. low content. More scummy than town due to not helping town.
============

chazworthington

137 - solid post about policy lynches being opportunistic for scum.
205 - good post again

Haven't seen much scummy action from Chaz yet.

Current read: see later notes for why Chaz is 99% not mafia. Others reached same conclusion. I would say town over SK / 3rd party. Analysis has been solid. Vote on me for lack of content from predecessor.
============

Hasdgfas

seems to be active, but nothing note worthy to this point.

214 - vote on netman (good)
230 - OMGUS vote on Jebus (weak) good point about more active players being seen as scummy though.
286 - unvotes doc claim, switches to alvinz (reason excluded)
336 - switches to gnome (again reasons excluded). Impending deadline is not a free pass for scummy votes.
365 - good response to qwints

Current read: high scum chance. Speculation that he may be SK might actually let him live longer. Lack of knowing if Iamuser was killed twice muddies this. Actions have been scummy - mainly he has been active, but content is low and votes lack solid reasoning. I have no previous game experience to know if this is normal town play from him.
============

Reclusion

104 - odd post. Admits to making a mountain out of a molehill?
116 - good point about knowing how many scum there are
223 - defense of netman

Current read: For some reason I had a scummy read here, but the evidence in my notes don't support it. My opinion must have been swayed by minor tonal issues within posts. Nothing outright scummy. Absence for 4 weeks hurts the chance of a good read. If away for that long, probably couldn't be responsible for any night kills?
============

Jebus

114 - seems pretty sure alvinz is town
125 - says they listed 3 players, but was not intended to signify the number
228 - jumps on the idea of BM/has link. votes has. (weak)
284 - an odd way of claiming. The phrase "I claim doc" instead of "I am doc"
369 - says he protected Chaz. Increases chances of Chaz being town (if doc is legit)
430 - says protected Chaz n2 also.
454 - good point about chaz possibly SK still.

Current read: I probably would have voted for Jebus before the claim. I didn't like the delivery of the claim either. Despite that, most evidence points to town. If we are thinking SK (looking likely), then 2 protective roles is not absurd. The same reasons Chaz is likely not mafia imply Jebus is doctor.
============

Panzerjager

Netman replaced Day 1

191 - first post. Role fishing.
195 - says he is taking notes for the next game day (assumption of living)
208 - again feels like he should hold all his thoughts until tomorrow?

363 - replaced

370 - votes alvinz (reasons excluded). I agree with the suspect, but don't agree with the delivery.

399 - votes cow (reasons excluded) as possible SK.

405 - claims role info. (maybe explains why Netman just wanted to live through the night?)

438 - claims role blocker.

Current read: Again, 2 protective roles does make sense. Actions alone are slightly scummy. The non-reasoned votes make sense post-claim.
============

Qwints

repl. Tovarish

Nothing from Tovar.
180 (qwints) Doesn't see anything suspicious in his initial read. Wants to start a discussion about setup speculation.
201 - Feels like he 'has to point a finger at someone'
285 - against a doc counter claim to leave Jebus around a day or 2? First unvote.
345 - votes jebus after calling out others for wanting to lynch him post-claim?
364 - comes out with a ready argument against cow. Seems to assume SK over vig.
371 - jumps on the alvinz bandwagon. (Again, I agree alvinz is suspicious, but vote deliveries have been horrible).
420 - decent point about SK being a plus for scum
455 - makes sense (except the inclusion of Chaz being 3rd party).

Current read: I started with a scum read then shifted closer to town. I have misread him in the only prior game with him and lynched him as town. Sitting MOTR here now.
============

General:

-Wagon on Jebus starting to look a little scummy (although Jebus is mildly suspicious). Votes stacking quickly with little discussion:

Jebus-Iamausername,cow,qwints,gnome,Yaw, BM

Final D1 vote count: Mr_Gnome_It_All-6(Chazworthington,Jebus,Yaw,alvinz95,qwints, K7) Gnome vote wasn't counted?. Votes by Yaw, Alvinz & Qwints looked scummy. Lynch was basically secured before K7 vote. K7 scummy only for lack of content, but not for this vote.

360:
Night 1 results in no dead town players, but a dead mafia. Vig or SK in play (I don't think this site uses bodyguards). Mafia RB can usually mean town RB. Protection or killer was blocked?

369 - chaz was claimed to have been protected on the night no town players died.

D2 lynch:
Alvinz - Panz, Xtoxm, Jebus, Cow, Iamuser, Alvinz
analysis - If we assume at least 1 scum voted here, only Xtoxm and cow are not claimed protective roles. Xt gave no reason and Cow jumped on when the train was at max speed.

397:
Night 2 results. Joint death. 1 kill again. Suggests vig action on n1 as opposed to SK? Simplest possibility. Others include no kills, protections, etc.

- Chaz is likely not mafia (Occam's Razor). Can be town, sk or any 3rd party. Scenarios where he can be mafia become diluted. Qwints actually nails this after my self-note

===========

Final comments:

Jebus

- your vote is still on Panz. Intentional or forget to remove after role claim?

Top suspects

Based on post content and voting patterns, Cow and Xtoxm sit at the top of my list. One or both of these 2 has to be scum IMO.

We almost definitely have 1 scum / killer lurking IMO. K7 is the top suspect there since Rec hasn't done anything to stand out as scummy yet and was on legit V/LA.

I will not vote for any of these 3 without overwhelming evidence: Chaz, Panz, Jeb.

Everybody needs to make an opinion known and place a vote today.

Vote Hasdgfas

I would like to suggest an early claim. If anybody disagrees, please state so ASAP. With 3 days until deadline, we cannot wait until L-1 and we should give at least 48 hours to digest any claim.

[Xtoxm]

117 - makes an assumption there is a serial killer?

Generally vigs don't kill the most active players by sticking them on flagpoles.

The death flavour, this being a Normal game, means it's an SK.

[Xtoxm]

Current read: more scummy than town. Content has been low, but does match some previous experience with him. Will need to meta to determine if it is consistent or varies with alignment. Did have a V/LA mixed in.

Other than that, I fail to see how you can say i've been low content.

[bionicchop2]

117 - makes an assumption there is a serial killer?

Generally vigs don't kill the most active players by sticking them on flagpoles.

The death flavour, this being a Normal game, means it's an SK.

I noted the flavor aspect of your analysis later in my post and indicated it made sense.

[Xtoxm]

I repsonded to that as soon as I saw it, before I read the next part.

[bionicchop2]

Current read: more scummy than town. Content has been low, but does match some previous experience with him. Will need to meta to determine if it is consistent or varies with alignment. Did have a V/LA mixed in.

Other than that, I fail to see how you can say i've been low content.

Most of your posts have been single sentences. Scum hunting has been low. I need to reread our polygamist game and any others we were in together to compare.

[hasdgfas]

Hasdgfas

seems to be active, but nothing note worthy to this point.

214 - vote on netman (good)
230 - OMGUS vote on Jebus (weak) good point about more active players being seen as scummy though.
286 - unvotes doc claim, switches to alvinz (reason excluded)
336 - switches to gnome (again reasons excluded). Impending deadline is not a free pass for scummy votes.
365 - good response to qwints

Current read: high scum chance. Speculation that he may be SK might actually let him live longer. Lack of knowing if Iamuser was killed twice muddies this. Actions have been scummy - mainly he has been active, but content is low and votes lack solid reasoning. I have no previous game experience to know if this is normal town play from him.

D2 lynch:
Alvinz - Panz, Xtoxm, Jebus, Cow, Iamuser, Alvinz
analysis - If we assume at least 1 scum voted here, only Xtoxm and cow are not claimed protective roles. Xt gave no reason and Cow jumped on when the train was at max speed.

230: It was not a fricking OMGUS vote! I had solid reasons for it. Just because I voted someone who voted me doesn't make it OMGUS!
336: I never voted for gnome. I have no idea what you're trying to say here.
"content is low": What exactly do you mean by that? I try to have all of my posts contain content, whether they're one line or 5 paragraphs. You can have just as much content in one line as in 5 paragraphs.
"votes lack solid reasoning": Please expand upon this idea.
You seriously cannot call me scummy for jumping on alvinz... He CLAIMED SCUM! If someone claims scum, everyone should immediately vote for them no matter what they say afterwards.

[bionicchop2]

230: It was not a fricking OMGUS vote! I had solid reasons for it. Just because I voted someone who voted me doesn't make it OMGUS!

When you do it within 2 posts of that person voting you and never having previously addressed them, it certainly looks OMGUS.

336: I never voted for gnome. I have no idea what you're trying to say here.

This was a mistake. The vote was on netman (was in the flurry of gnome votes). The point was there was no reason given.

"content is low": What exactly do you mean by that? I try to have all of my posts contain content, whether they're one line or 5 paragraphs. You can have just as much content in one line as in 5 paragraphs.

When I say content is low, I guess I am talking about active lurking. It is where you are posting frequently, asking minor questions, but not really digging for scum. As with most things in the game of mafia, it is perception related. The only times you genuinely seem interested is when you are defending yourself.

"votes lack solid reasoning": Please expand upon this idea.
You seriously cannot call me scummy for jumping on alvinz... He CLAIMED SCUM! If someone claims scum, everyone should immediately vote for them no matter what they say afterwards.

These are examples of times you voted and didn't really say why. The final vote on Alvinz is the only one after he claimed scum.

unvote, vote alvinz

Any reason for voting BM?

unvote

for now and

vote:alvinz

unvote, vote netman

A much better choice.

ok.

vote: alvinz

I never said the action of you voting for alvinz was scummy, so not sure why you are defensive there. Your vote on his wagon stands out because other on there are either dead or claimed power.

[hasdgfas]

I never said the action of you voting for alvinz was scummy, so not sure why you are defensive there. Your vote on his wagon stands out because other on there are either dead or claimed power.

You assumed there was at least 1 scum. You mentioned me as one of two people who weren't either dead or a claimed power role. Of course I'm going to defend myself.

Also, not giving reasons when you vote isn't scummy in and of itself. Refusing to give a reason when called out on it is. I was never called out on it, because every vote had good backing.

Asking "minor" questions can be a great way of scumhunting. Active lurking? seriously? The only posts I've made that I would consider active lurking were at the very beginning of the game. Short posts do not active lurking make. Asking questions is a great way of getting reactions to look at later.

[bionicchop2]

I never said the action of you voting for alvinz was scummy, so not sure why you are defensive there. Your vote on his wagon stands out because other on there are either dead or claimed power.

You assumed there was at least 1 scum. You mentioned me as one of two people who weren't either dead or a claimed power role. Of course I'm going to defend myself.

Would you assume there were zero scum voting for Alvinz at the end of the day and all scum were voting elsewhere? With more than half the players voting for Alvinz, percentages alone would lead me to assume the wagon was not entirely town players. Add to that my top suspects based on posts are sitting there. What conclusion would you make here?

Also, not giving reasons when you vote isn't scummy in and of itself. Refusing to give a reason when called out on it is. I was never called out on it, because every vote had good backing.

If I had been here to start the game, you would have been called out on it. Just because you weren't called out on it and forced to give reasons doesn't make it townie.

Asking "minor" questions can be a great way of scumhunting. Active lurking? seriously? The only posts I've made that I would consider active lurking were at the very beginning of the game. Short posts do not active lurking make. Asking questions is a great way of getting reactions to look at later.

Yes, questions are good. They become empty when you never follow up on them or respond to their responses. If you have done an analysis of how people responded to your questions, I would love to see it.

Please explain your scum hunting method on day 3 if you do not consider yourself actively lurking. You have been actively posting since the day started and there is an impending deadline. You have only put an FOS to Chaz with no other suspicions stated.

On top of this, you reaction to Panz claiming role information on you is extremely odd. This is the one time I expect a townie to OMGUS and you actually didn't. As a town player, if someone claims information on you that you are scum, the most basic reason is they are lying. Instead, you assumed they were telling the truth and started searching for alternate explanations - driver, framer, etc. You assumed he was a role and he did have information against you then started to explain how the information could be false. You were not shocked in any way to have somebody claim role info against you.

[hasdgfas]

I could believe no scum on the alvinz wagon. I could also believe Xtoxm as scum. Alvinz claimed scum. Every townie should have immediately voted for him.

It doesn't make it scummy to not give reasons with your vote though. It's more a null tell.

I haven't done a formal analysis of responses, but I definitely have done a mental analysis of how my thoughts on people have been affected.

my scumhunting method on day 3? You really expect scumhunting after the second post of the day was Panzer claiming role info on me? That's just silly.

I understand why he would think what he does, bionic, especially since he claimed RB. If he had claimed a true info role, trust me, I would have voted him. RB, on the other hand, is not really a true info role. Plus, it's Panzer. I know him well enough to know that he gets too aggressive over nothing. I was really shocked he had role info against me, but he was so sure of it that I knew he wasn't lying. Therefore, I was trying to figure out how he could have info on me, and I assumed it was another role of some sort. I have to say that I didn't assume something this stupid though.

[qwints]

I gotta say I find these last few posts pretty panicky hazcow. Do I understand that you believe panzer's claim and think that iamusername was double-killed last night? If so, who should we be targeting?

Welcome bionic, nice to see you again. I like your analysis, but I think you read too much into the alvinz lynch. He was playing ridiculously scummy. Scum might reasonably have left him alone and waited for a vig/sk kill.

I see only two real options at this point (let me know if I've missed something): lynch hazcow as a potential sk or lynch a lurker. Since I think the flavor text points to two kills last night, I'm for the latter option. Killer7 is clearly the most egregious lurker, so that's where my vote is.

All that said, we should definitely hear roleclaims from the main suspects in the next 24 hours.

[Jebus]

@Bionichop: Good analysis, though I don't really think Xotxm is scum.

As you've pointed out, I like the hascow vote, thought I still have a slight inclination to vote Reclusion, as I guessed in the beginning of the game (My thoughts then were Reclusion, BM, and Yaw. Yaw was correct, BM was not, leaving Reclusion. Hasn't been amazingly pro-town, which leaves the slight inclination).

And I thought I unvoted Panzer, anyway.

unvote

As for your inference that if I'm doc, Chaz is town: I'm also a part of the uninformed majority, I don't know alignments other than my own. Chaz could very well be mafia/3rd party (and I've got a feeling third party), though I don't mind protecting chaz agian if nobody else seems to be a scum target.

[bionicchop2]

I still have a slight inclination to vote Reclusion, as I guessed in the beginning of the game

I had a scum gut on him too, but I can't find any evidence to support it based on posting, so I can't really get behind that one. I still can't pinpoint where the original feeling came from. Also, if he was on vacation for 4 weeks (announced properly) it would kind of suck to not get replaced as requested and then get lynched immediately upon return.

And I thought I unvoted Panzer, anyway. unvote

I assumed, but wanted to make sure.

As for your inference that if I'm doc, Chaz is town: I'm also a part of the uninformed majority, I don't know alignments other than my own. Chaz could very well be mafia/3rd party (and I've got a feeling third party), though I don't mind protecting chaz agian if nobody else seems to be a scum target.

You did misunderstand me a little. My believe based on night action evidence is that Chaz is not mafia. My belief he is not SK comes from game actions.

Just to clearly state the reasoning (since some didn't see it when Qwints outlined it and questioned his logic - skip if this already is clear):

=========
1. We know there was no mafia night kill on night 1. We have a claimed RB and a claimed doctor.

2. With that known there are 3 ways for there to be no mafia kill:
A. Doctor saved the target
B. RB blocked the executor
C. Mafia no killed.

3. Out of those 3, A+B are the most (and statistically equal) likely. Since there is no inherent advantage for mafia to no kill (and usually many disadvantages) that possibility is close to zero from my perspective.

4. With C very unlikely and B proven incorrect (either RB is lying, or the blocked was not the cause of the no kill), you are left with A as very, very likely (which is why I put it at 99%).

Without making up random unknown scenarios, the simplest explanation is Chaz was the target of the mafia night kill and therefore not mafia.
=========

This of course assumes you are doctor, which I don't expect everybody to assume. I trust it for now using the same logic. If you didn't protect the mafia target and are lying, then you are mafia and no killed intentionally, which fits into my 1% no kill range.