Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[VP Baltar]

My concern at the moment is that you might know that keep associatives look bad for you, and therefore want to go first.

I don't see at all what would look bad for me there? Like the worst thing I think would be if someone said I had scum equity with you...which shouldn't make sense from your perspective

I think that a green Ari flip looks bad on you the same way that you are saying that your green flip would look bad on Ari, because then her case on you is then also coming from confirmed town.

And imaginality has also presented you as partnered with Pav, which obviously would be more threatening to you if correct and then flipped red.

So I kinda see why scum!you would want to flip before the keep.

---

But I also think that your town!reasoning for wanting to flip first stayed fairly consistent to questioning.

This might have been a fruitless line.

The benefit of doing the gate first is that is where the most associatives will come from. Fingers crossed, Tanner votes out imaginality and town is then up a game with good associatives to win the keep.

What associatives from the Gate do you think will help us win the Keep after you are gone? You already have those associatives, what do they tell you?

Since this has been on your mind, have you noticed him doing that this game? I might iso him for read progression now

Currently doing this. Starting with his solve of imaginality+ari+toog

Spoiler: Ari trajectory

212 - ari and tanner are not t/t

217 - ari is performative

**note to self to ask about Ari wrt his sort in 268/270

399 - lim all liars wrt Ari

412- claims he did not call Ari mafia (which seems weird given all mentions of ari to this point)

859 - Ari is in his team solve

Summary, there was definitely some fence sitting in the middle, but no about face.

Spoiler: Toog trajectory

I found zero expressed thought on Toog Day 1

but in 524, he said he had gut town pings on toog day 1

Also in 524, he shifts to scum leaning because of imaginality's town case on toog

859 - Toog is in his solve.

summary, there is a turn here, but it is unexpressed before the turn, so :shrug:

Of note, if Balter flips scum, there is a clear difference in how he approached the scum read on Ari and the scum read on Toog. The approach to ari was definitly strong enough to affect her ability to win the keep. But his approach to toog isn't. Much more passive, even before the Toog rep out.

I don't ever see Baltar+Ari as partnered, but I can see Baltar+Toog. If he flips before either of the others

@Ari - here is the short of it: I incorporated the desires of a now confirmed town player as the fundamental building block of how I sorted. Additionally, Tanner has a tendency to scum read me in almost every game we play, at least for a little while. Yet, I added Tanner to my own game, knowing that would be the case. There is no legitimate reason I would do any of that as scum...and I'd actually call that poor play on my part if I was scum. It's so obvtown from my perspective, that I think it is incredibly annoying I'm having to repeat it again.

Baltar, even if you think that this is obvtown from your perspective (lol). It is not obvtown from mine.

Tanner suggested you+imaginality, and you didn't fight it.
Why would that be an obvtown move to make? It is now mechanically confirmed that that suggestion is one scum + one townie. Why would a scum player fight against it, and possibly end up in the same game as their buddy?

Tanner scum read you, but he also scum read imaginality harder imo. -- Why would a scum player fight against this arrangement?

Who do you think that scum!Baltar would want in the Gate with him and imaginality over Tanner? The other options would have been Darby, toog, numberq, and implosion. 1-2 of these names are mechanically proven to be scum. Other then implosion, all three of these are miselim bait if they are town.

Would scum!Baltar really want to place himself at the gate with him + imaginality + miselim bait, and be foreced to IC either imaginality or miselim bait over Tanner?

-----

Most of this all applies to imaginality as well, so this is not even a point for or against you. He was also amiable to the baltar+imaginality+tanner at the gate suggestion.

But, you keep repeating that this makes you obvtown, and I just don't see it.

do you remember what the idea was behind this post?

I actually don't? It doesn't seem to make sense since they are all xlos?

And, I was not the one asking this question, but...

Doesn't matter maybe but wouldn't you consider it bonus points if you changed my mind?

Sure, happy to have you but I'm not certain certain you're town either so...

I do think imaginality's read on Darby looked fake af.

Do you think that imaginality having a fake looking scum read on Darby makes Darby scum or town. I was unclear the first time you mentioned it

Luke, can I ask why you're townreading Ari? Based off your posting, a lot of it seems to be related to Tanner interactions where you were assuming Tanner was scum. That wasn't true, obv. Are you still townreading Ari based on those old assumptions, or are there other reasons?

I don't think that any of my reasons for town reading ari were hinging on my read on tanner. When I sat down to do isos over the break, I did Ari and Implo first because they were in my game. Then I moved on to the Gate and read Tanner, and started scum reading him pretty hard, and then I agree that influenced my iso reads after that.

But a run down
Day 1:
- offering to vote tanner in the keep
- offering to vote me in the keep
- the way her vibe matched our prior game together (laid back alt gimick, but then breaking character to check into things that ping her. see )
- the way she started questioning tanner once I put out my own worry of tanner

Day 2:
- Asking Tanner to help her pick who to vote
- And like, the fact that she just showed that she has gone and read at least 2 different games that had both me and pav in it to try and sort the two of us. Seems like a lot of effort for scum who would already be in a decent position. She did not even use anything she found in the meta to change her reads. So she had reads. Read two whole games. Came back and said "yep, I like my reads from before"

Implo was talking about literal first movers and I was talking about early voters in general. The fact ari said that doesn't make her +town and it's silly you'd make that assumption.

I am not sure what you are saying here?

Spoiler: The posts I'm talking about

I kind of agree with Aris that first movers probably have +scum

due to the simple fact scum have more direct incentive to move first.

My point is there is more likely to be a scum among the first movers due to the desire to prevent a lockout.

I agree first first mover is probably slightly +town.

Of course, now that we have talked about it, it feels like it all means nothing, so...

From my pov it just looks like you called me +scum in 120 and then turned around and called me +town in 138 for the exact same action, both times being agreeable with who ever made the original argument.

Are you saying that you were calling ari +scum in 120? if so, why lead it with "I agree with ari"

Calling someone a potential town block material if they were in the null town range feel weird.

But also, why would even say this is you are scum? Wouldn't it be easier to just say 'I thought he was town, but obviously I was wrong"

Just saying what I was honestly thinking at the time. I don't even know what scum motivation you think exists.

This is a post where I am considering you being town, so makes sense that you are not seeing a scum motivation here lol.

The way you are dancing around the "potential town block" not meaning you actually thought he was town at the time, feels weird. And my gut reaction to that was that your day 1 reads were manufactured. BUT I don't understand why scum!you would go down this path instead of just saying that you discovered that you were wrong the moment Tanner was made an IC

I don't think I said I town read imaginality, did I?

the readslist was +town because readslists early often grab attention and scum doesn't want that - that's what you said. i assumed that meant you're townreading him.

from memory, what were your reads if he was middle of the pack?

I mean I definitely said that. I'm just saying it was not like I was simping for him in thread or something. That's why I said "potential" townbloc. I was not certain on him at all, but more in the null to potential town range. I still do think it's incredibly dumb for scum to post a reads list like that and it was the first thing I went back to now that I know he's scum.

Calling someone a potential town block material if they were in the null town range feel weird.

But also, why would even say this is you are scum? Wouldn't it be easier to just say 'I thought he was town, but obviously I was wrong"

Few reasons. I didn't think Tanner should be straight calling a location since he is a good player and if he was scum, I wasn't going to hand it to him like that. Also served as a bit of a reaction test to see how Tanner responded. Him being amenable to a slightly different version was protown

So you thought scum!tanner might be making a suggestion that was 1 scum, 2 town to help achieve a 1-1-1 split?

I don't know that I was thinking about it that hard. More just like, if Tanner is scum, they have a reason for that suggestion, so let me make a suggested change to the plan and see how he reacts. I also meant what I said early in the game that I can actually read Tanner reasonably well, so I didn't see harm for myself in being in the same game with him.

But I am trying to figure out why Tanner suggesting you+imaginality+implo was bad, but you+imaginality+tanner was fine. Could that not have been tanner literally just swapping himself with his scum buddy, and achieving the same split?

Thinking back, I don't know that he was actually the one who suggested him being there, so maybe that is a moot point? And also, you have already said you were not thinking about it that hard... hmmmm

I wish you had better answers lol

Here are a bunch of posts where Luke and I are having back and forths where he's kind of needling me on stuff or I'm calling him on bad logic while trying to answer questions.

I don't think this is some massive "could never be aligned" thing, so much as I think if you compare this to his interactions with imaginality, it seems obvious these are much more directional from him.

Luke imaginality is full of softballs and no follow up really on questions...which is classic scum.

As I stated in my reread of him as well, Luke's day opening reads list features him kind of shading me more directly while landing imaginality safely in a null range.

[Prism]

Fortress Status Report 1.5

The Keep is held by the Guardians.

Gate	Guardian Votes
VP Baltar (1)	imaginality (534)
imaginality (1)	VP Baltar (866)
Not voting (1)	Tanner

Wall	Guardian Votes
RH9 (0)
numberQ (1)	RH9 (1846)
implosion (0)
Not voting (2)	numberQ, implosion

The score is 1-0 in favor of the Guardians. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2022-01-07 06:25:00).

[VP Baltar]

My concern at the moment is that you might know that keep associatives look bad for you, and therefore want to go first.

I don't see at all what would look bad for me there? Like the worst thing I think would be if someone said I had scum equity with you...which shouldn't make sense from your perspective

I think that a green Ari flip looks bad on you the same way that you are saying that your green flip would look bad on Ari, because then her case on you is then also coming from confirmed town.

And imaginality has also presented you as partnered with Pav, which obviously would be more threatening to you if correct and then flipped red.

So I kinda see why scum!you would want to flip before the keep.

---

But I also think that your town!reasoning for wanting to flip first stayed fairly consistent to questioning.

This might have been a fruitless line.

This post seems fairly notable because Luke is pushing the same Ari-town = VP-scum that imaginality was pushing.

It makes zero sense for Luke to do this as my scumbuddy while knowing there is a good chance we flip town Ari first. That's just actively hamstringing your own team.

[implosion]

What would RH9’s scum motivation for voting here be. Like they can exist but it just seems much simpler to imagine it’s a town move. Scum should at least want to entertain the notion that the afk player might be convinceable.

[Tanner]

hi sorry i am bacc

i did read the posts that you quoted, and yeah. a lot of them seem to be in the similar vein of the arguments he had with me on d1, but that might just eb his style of faking reads, not necessarily with townies. i also went back through his iso while ctrl+f'ing "imag" and there definitely is... much less. i think there was 1? maybe 2 direct questions, and they seemed, like. bland and boring.

i did find some confusing stuff when luke was talking about imaginality's read case list, i'll have to reread those parts tomorrow when it's not 4am

now, a part of me is decently wondering if this is luke+baltar scumteam and luke purposefully had associates that were *nothing* with imaginality so that the scumlord baltar could push these arguments after luke's flip. a rebuttal to this theory is that baltar has been *screaming* for the hammer in the gate for like the whole day now, so it seems a bit of a weird strategy to set up these associates only to have baltar flip first? and like, his flip would just spew ari town so it's not like it actually like, worked two ways

i should also check imag>luke and baltar>luke assoc tomorrow too maybe

and re implo: what is the town motivation for voting a person they essentially have a nullread on? i'll have to go check if there's actually been any progression there but

but also i am kinda getting it in my head that implo is scum here who's just waiting to see if i'm about to fuck up gate to see if he can hammer for the win so like

[Tanner]

read case list

read case list

don't play mafia after midnight kids

[implosion]

tanner would you be angry if i hammered and rh9 was scum

[RH9]

tanner would you be angry if i hammered and rh9 was scum

You caught me, implosion.

[RH9]

tanner would you be angry if i hammered and rh9 was scum

You caught me, implosion.

Just joking.

[Tanner]

tanner would you be angry if i hammered and rh9 was scum

outside the game? no, not really. within the game, i'd probably curse not only you but also your entire bloodline.

if you're town, i don't envy your position. numberq has straight up abandoned us, and rh9 feels like an AI playing mafia. if i had to hammer within your game right this very second, i'd go rh9. numberq has pinged me townie a few times, while neither toog nor rh9 did; and i stand by my observation that rh9's entry into this game is +partner with luke. like, he enters the game, has one and only scumread, the reasons for that scumread are shaky at best, that scumread starts theatering with him and ~arguing~, and then that scumread decides to accelerate the flipping of the keep. it doesn't feel natural, and the fact that it went both ways feels very concerning to me. but i'd be lying if i said i feel a great amount of certainty about it.

[VP Baltar]

RH9, will you please unvote so Tanner can make a decision?

[Tanner]

if your scumplan this game really is "yell at me until i hammer", i'm gonna be like. a little mad. just a little.

[VP Baltar]

if your scumplan this game really is "yell at me until i hammer", i'm gonna be like. a little mad. just a little.

Imagine my annoyance as town waiting for days for this hammer.

[Tanner]

@Everyone, how good would you rate yourself in Elo?

of course this was a fucking scum question that i decided to voluntarily answer to and say how much i hate being confirmed town in yelo

[Tanner]

if your scumplan this game really is "yell at me until i hammer", i'm gonna be like. a little mad. just a little.

Imagine my annoyance as town waiting for days for this hammer.

i mean, if you are town here. you spend like the majority of day 1 trying to make sure i don't have the final say in the minigame assignments because you were afraid i was some galaxy brain powerwolf trying to force out an insta townloss ~somehow~. considering you were already *that* wary of me on day 1, tell me you wouldn't be sweating if you had been ic'ed here >_>

[Tanner]

rh9, how often do you usually have scumreads on day 1?

[VP Baltar]

tell me you wouldn't be sweating if you had been ic'ed here >_>

I would have town read you by now. Even with due skepticism, there comes a point where the bulk of the facts point in a particular direction.

[Tanner]

285 got me thinking. if ari and luke are town/town, then scum would surely be trying to angle themselves to get into the keep. but i think what i mentioned earlier was right, nobody actually showed much care about where they get assigned. working backwards, that would mean ari/luke are t/s? it's probably wrong to be making that many assumptions.

I've been having similar thoughts.
This is also a reason why we might want to resolve Keep first if it still has Luke and Ari in it - if they turn out to be town/town then there's highly likely scum amongst the conspicuous "I don't care where I end up"-ers.

what was the logic behind this? you said "i've been having similar thoughts" then outed a conclusion that was completely opposite from my own

[Tanner]

my issue with the keep is like. i have no fucking clue who is scum there, lol. if i'm going with my brain, i'd want luke voted. but if i'm going with my gut, i'd want pav because goddamn i still really like the "both vp and imaginality wanted pav to be their third" idea

You said this before too but I never said I wanted DArby? In 273 I said DArby and numberQ should go together, in 275 I suggested Toog should be the third with me and VP (i saw us as potentially T/T/T), and in 314 I said it should be you.

this is a spicy post if imaginality is scum

i don't know in what direction, but it's spicy

[VP Baltar]

@Everyone, how good would you rate yourself in Elo?

of course this was a fucking scum question that i decided to voluntarily answer to and say how much i hate being confirmed town in yelo

I forgot about this post, but might also explain why you'd get ICed over me. I think that's short sighted of scum, but the plan could have been to lean into your paranoia.

[Tanner]

"oh look, here is a post with which i can explain why i totally didn't ic tanner solely because he townread me on day 1"

[imaginality]

285 got me thinking. if ari and luke are town/town, then scum would surely be trying to angle themselves to get into the keep. but i think what i mentioned earlier was right, nobody actually showed much care about where they get assigned. working backwards, that would mean ari/luke are t/s? it's probably wrong to be making that many assumptions.

I've been having similar thoughts.
This is also a reason why we might want to resolve Keep first if it still has Luke and Ari in it - if they turn out to be town/town then there's highly likely scum amongst the conspicuous "I don't care where I end up"-ers.

what was the logic behind this? you said "i've been having similar thoughts" then outed a conclusion that was completely opposite from my own

Typo pure and simple. I meant town/scum.

[imaginality]

I must have mistyped it as town because I was subconsciously thinking of VP Baltar and how townie he seemed. :p

[VP Baltar]

mistyped it as town

A thing you would never say as town

[VP Baltar]

"oh look, here is a post with which i can explain why i totally didn't ic tanner solely because he townread me on day 1"

Wasn't even my point! You said it. Haha, so damn paranoid.