Micro 1041: Geriatric F11 [Postgame]

[catboi]

Vote Count 3.04

Andante (2):

Sleepless Assassin, Umlaut

Sleepless Assassin (1):

Andante

Not Voting (2):

joqiza, Roadkill

With 5 alive, it's 3 to eliminate.

The post cap will reset in

(expired on 2022-02-10 22:00:00)

Deadline for Day 3 is February 13 at 9:00 PM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-02-13 22:00:00)

Reserve Posts Used

Andante (3)
joqiza (1)

[joqiza]

Hammering in ~2 hours.

[joqiza]

Reading over this game again, I wonder if Andante hammered Three on D1 because she was worried about me switching to Dwlee before deadline. It looks like she hammered two or three hours before. I'd said I would be on... I don't actually remember, but I think I would've had an hour or so. I don't actually know that I'd have switched to Dwlee, but scum couldn't have been sure given my earlier vote. Three/SA/Looker/myself/Roadkill would have been enough for maj.

[joqiza]

Hammering in like 5 min.

[joqiza]

VOTE: Andante

If this flips town and you all end up in F3 without me, my legacy isn't any particular read. Instead just do your best to find mafia and don't worry about the "pressure from the graveyard," if that makes sense.

[catboi]

Vote Count 3.05

Andante (3):

Sleepless Assassin, Umlaut, joqiza

Sleepless Assassin (1):

Andante

Not Voting (1):

Roadkill

With 5 alive, it took 3 to eliminate.

Reserve Posts Used

Andante (3)
joqiza (1)

[catboi]

Andante

was eliminated Day 3.

She was a...

Spoiler:

Vanilla Townie

[catboi]

It is now

Night 3

.

The deadline for Night 3 is

February 12

at

9:00 PM EST

. Submit night actions by PM, if applicable.

Fast Night is available if all living players request it.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-02-12 22:00:00)

[catboi]

Umlaut

died Night 3. He was a

Vanilla Townie

.

Vote Count 4.00

Not Voting (3):

joqiza, Roadkill, Sleepless Assassin

With 3 alive, it's 2 to eliminate.

The post cap will reset in

(expired on 2022-02-14 01:00:00)

Deadline for Day 4 is February 23 at 12:00 AM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-02-23 01:00:00)

Reserve Posts Used

joqiza (1)

Note:

I have shifted the cycle for the post count, since I was late to open the thread.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Hmm. That's who I was probably going to vote.

I'll be honest, I thought Roadkill was going to die.

I'm heading to bed but I'll have to look over both of your gameplay.

I know I was townreading Roadkill because if he's scum he hardbussed in a way I'm not sure I'd expect.

Joqiza I really would have expected to hammer me over Dwelee as scum.

So this isn't gonna be easy. But other than the Super Bowl tomorrow, I have most of the next 10 days free so I'll do everything I need to do to figure this out.

If either of you is considering that it could be me, my best defense is that I latched on to Dwelee right from the beginning and was their counterwagon the day they were eliminated. I know that if joqiza is town, that probably doesn't say a ton to you because Roadkill wad latched on to Dwelee as well so from your point of view Dwelee was definitely bussed.

I'll have to think about who is more likely to kill Umlaut too. Just from pure memory I think Joqiza could have thought Umlaut was coming after him but I'll have to go see if that's true or not. And Roadkill as scum probably sees Umlaut as the towniest player so it's possible it makes sense from both.

This is gonna be a hard one.

[joqiza]

This is gonna be a hard one.

x2

I think I'll probably end up putting down a vote sooner rather than later because not having the answer is gnawing at me. That said I think there's a decent chance I vote wrong so... sorry in advance.

(To be clear I don't actually know who I'm gonna vote yet, I'm just feeling trigger-happy.)

I was also... not really expecting that kill. My read on the game-state was, scum outside of Umlaut would be more likely to keep Umlaut alive because I'd said I'd be inclined to vote him in F3. I sort of thought, scum!SA might kill Roadkill and bring me/Umlaut to F3. That seems like decent equity for him. The risk there would be getting cross-voted by Umlaut and beaten in the cross.

Scum!SA killing Umlaut instead... raises the chances that I cross-vote him? So perhaps scum!SA makes the evaluation that a battle with me with Roadkill as arbitrator has higher equity than a battle with Umlaut with me as arbitrator?

Scum!Roadkill... I don't really know what incentives scum!Roadkill has with the nightkill, other than, he can't kill himself. Probably it is just, something like... kill the person who you predict will be dangerous in the F3. But, as I type this... wouldn't Umlaut/SA in the F3 be decent equity? Given that Umlaut disagreed with me when I said I was clearing SA?

I think in my head, like... scum!Roadkill could kill me, and then, even with my last post yesterday, I think the fact that I'd said never chop SA/Roadkill might linger. That wouldn't affect Umlaut's behavior, but it might make town!SA more likely to vote Umlaut, and the cross-vote between two villagers seems... plausible there, I guess?

Scum!Roadkill killing Umlaut... I mean, I think it is unclear what town!SA or I do now, in this world. So it is a bit of a head tilt to see why he chooses this world over the former. It's possible that he just evaluates my game as scummier / easier to push on than I do myself, and so keeps me around as an ML option? (This could explain why scum!RK kills Umlaut over me, but wouldn't explain why scum!SA kills Umlaut over Roadkill..)

It's so frustrating... how easy to see these things always seem with graveyard vision. Whenever I get spoilers for a game, and it's something I didn't expect, there's a weird mental buzz and then, before too long, you wonder how you ever thought anything differently. And then you end up in a situation like this, and you remember... oh, right, this is pretty hard after all. I wish I could... go forward in time, read the spoilers, and then come back here and use the information accordingly. I keep telling myself to try to do something like that, but mentally.

[joqiza]

Sleepless, how come you call Dwlee 'Dwelee' ?

(I don't think this actually tells me anything, I'm just curious. You even use Dwelee when you're quoting them. Does their name actually display that way to you, or are you adding the extra 'e' yourself in your posts?)

[joqiza]

I'm leaning towards voting SA... it's irrespective of the nightkill stuff, which I think is sending me in circles.

scum!SA's dedication to the bus would boggle my mind a bit, but... Roadkill's 262 reaction to Dwlee's 250... I feel like that kind of OMGUS-y reaction to a wolf, followed by the hardpush for the rest of the game until they're flipped... this just feels like a town pattern to me. It's the "pounce" on the bad post by the wolf. I think I've seen this before.

[joqiza]

To compare the progressions on Dwlee, from where I'm sitting, it's like...

Sleepless's game

: Kill Dwlee. Eliminate Dwlee. Chop Dwlee. Destroy Dwlee. Annihilate Dwlee. Murder Dwlee. Launch Dwlee. Yeet Dwlee. You're townreading Dwlee? Don't townread Dwlee. Vote Dwlee instead. Oh nice, Dwlee flipped scum. Let's think about who Dwlee's partner is. Maybe it's Andante.

Roadkill's game

. (general D1 conversation). Wait, Dwlee, WTF was that post? Kill Dwlee. Eliminate Dwlee. Chop Dwlee. Destroy Dwlee. Annihilate Dwlee. Murder Dwlee. Launch Dwlee. Yeet Dwlee. You're townreading Dwlee? Don't townread Dwlee. Vote Dwlee instead. Oh nice, Dwlee flipped scum. Let's think about who Dwlee's partner is. That Looker kill was kind of weird, wasn't it?

(I'm being a bit simplistic for the sake of humor. I think the above is like, a generalization of how I feel, in a sense, even if there's obviously more to each player's game and more I plan to look at than just that.)

Neither progression is what I'd expect from a scum partner. But within that dichotomy, SA's looks a bit more static / Roadkill's more dynamic... I guess it's not a given that static/dynamic maps to wolf/villager, but that's how I naturally read into it.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Sleepless, how come you call Dwlee 'Dwelee' ?

(I don't think this actually tells me anything, I'm just curious. You even use Dwelee when you're quoting them. Does their name actually display that way to you, or are you adding the extra 'e' yourself in your posts?)

I actually didn't realize until now that I had it wrong.

But anyway the major thing I get from reading your posts is something that lingered in my mind already. Roadkill still being alive seems to be weird to you as well, not just to me. The simple answer is Roadkill is just playing a great scum game and obviously can't be the NK. But there's also the chance he was left alive just to create this argument. I dunno, he was my sure town read going into night and while I do read you (joqiza) as someone who thinks things through, I still think you're more likely to stick to a predictable script if that makes sense. And if Roadkill is town, not being killed was clearly a big WIFOM plan that I wouldn't expect. Do you think you could link me to a scum PT from a game where you played well as scum? I want something that shows how you really think when the time comes to make a big late game NK.

[Sleepless Assassin]

UNVOTE:
I've seen lolhammer in RVS, typically from scum though, or in a meme game. I don't think it is scummy to question that line from Andante but I don't think that line is AI from her either.

I like Umlaut for town right now so I'll join this
VOTE: mc Esther

Bus your buddy and vote Roadkill with me.

I don't like to bus in micros though
[

If I'd called the scum team here wouldn't they have come after me harder than they did, especially when I was wagoned? Or maybe even used a NK on me? That's one of the things bugging me about the possibility of Roadkill being scum. I know I've been damn good at early game reads lately, but this good and with no real pushback from scum? I don't know...

[Sleepless Assassin]

On second glance though, Roadkill didn't immediately acknowledge it and it does look awkward in hindsight when he finally talks about it.

[Roadkill]

hi, sorry i am very tired but i am here a bit and will be here a bit more in the coming days, to complete the trilogy of saying that’s an odd choice that is... and odd choice that i have issue tying to either of you because my gut instinct seeing it (saw, i saw earlier but my brain wasn’t... in the place to post) was that i am now arbitrating you two as in, there would be a cross vote but i also didn’t understand who would benefit forcing a cross vote or why? i guess the why is andantes words looking back a bit, and if i follow this line i think joqiza as scum looks a little better off to win but also why... do this? this way?

it’s... a little frustrating to be alive because i don’t always feel decisive enough and second guess at the end of the game and also it’s a little frustrating to have to defend self (well, i don’t have to, but i always get self-defensive as if to have something to prove) and also because being alive then becomes a question about myself that i do not have the answers as to why usually, and there is no intellectual rebuttal to “you might be having a good scum game” that i can offer because i can’t soothe paranoia with other than “i am not please talk to me about what you think might be the root”

which sleepless is!

the early accusations did not mean a lot to me because they were early and i know reads can change and when you are with low information a net can be thrown and not always hit the right things, and also i did something attention grabbing that was... decisive. so it did not mean a lot to me and there was never a... moment where something clicked as in “i need to follow this trail” like i did when dwlee wanted to kill three (because even then i think i would have probably just sighed at that one post they made and not really went after it until we said the same thing and i went oh no) so it was just... a thing, your early accusation, that’s a shrug on the mind

[Roadkill]

my suspicions fall a little bit to sleepless but i am still not very sure right now, in that it is easier to recall him in the moment for having replied and thought about the game a bit in reference.

to try and verbalize why because “a little” is nebulous i think that we both bussed and that sleepless feels... a little... predetermined in how he’s talking as if to frame me a bit as the great scum potentially and then a little more kindness to joqiza (but also joqiza was here /to/ speak first and we are usually nicer to the people around us presently)

the things that interest me most on joqiza to visit are the early game and then also andante because andante was town and while she wanted to kill... everyone at some point maybe there was something missed in what she was saying especially yesterday buried under the noise of wanting to live

[Roadkill]

also i cannot offer any examples of my play and i am sorry for that but i think here if i were mafia i would kill joqiza as the loudest, most consistent voice in the room and also...

he has intuitively matched up with me for almost the entire game as in, our thoughts mirror each other from what he says and.:: while if i were mafia i would have tricked him up to this point but when you have done so for so long when you say something “bad” that does not match it is a jarring moment that can cause an almost instant reevaluation that i don’t think i would be able to recover from gracefully and with the spotlight shining hard on the three of us

[Roadkill]

i will be around a bit maybe through the day but definitely tomorrow morning again!

[Sleepless Assassin]

the early accusations did not mean a lot to me because they were early and i know reads can change and when you are with low information a net can be thrown and not always hit the right things, and also i did something attention grabbing that was... decisive. so it did not mean a lot to me and there was never a... moment where something clicked as in “i need to follow this trail” like i did when dwlee wanted to kill three (because even then i think i would have probably just sighed at that one post they made and not really went after it until we said the same thing and i went oh no) so it was just... a thing, your early accusation, that’s a shrug on the mind

For what it's worth this does make sense. I feel like even though it may be an overreaction, scum would panic just a bit at the team being named so early and that's one of the things that makes me hesitant to believe you could be scum. There was no panic. No push to eliminate me from the game or to sway me. It's possible from my point of view however that it's something that drove you to bus Dwlee. I could see trying to eliminate associatives for endgame. Again, this requires your game to have been near flawless though. And usually if that's the case, the odds of anyone being hot on your trail about it are low. So I feel stuck. Like I've said before, my main hesitation on Joqiza is that he had a chance to hammer me over Dwlee. He chose to hammer Dwlee. I believe it was Andante who said he'd do that for town cred. And the irony isn't lost on me that I'm townreading him for it, but typically speaking I think the town cred from Dwlees flip is more likely to go to people who were pushing that way all along. Joqiza waited, considered all options, and decided last. It looks more legitimately town to me than like scum trying to look town. That's what makes this hard is I'm trying to find out who I'm wrong on . You both look town but obviously aren't. So it's like I need to try to argue against my own reasoning. That's why I'm picking apart your reaction to my whole "Dwlee/Roadkill scum gg" thing early on. I did town read it at the time. But the reason I think I'm leaning you as scum is because it's easier for me to believe that you brushed it aside to not appear to panic than it is that Joqiza chose to hammer his buddy over town. I'm far from decided though and absolutely see the side that town-you just didn't take me seriously being so early in the game.

that sleepless feels... a little... predetermined in how he’s talking as if to frame me a bit as the great scum potentially and then a little more kindness to joqiza (but also joqiza was here /to/ speak first and we are usually nicer to the people around us presently)

I try to be nice to everyone. I'm mainly just trying to lay put my thoughts and see if they make sense. As much as I want to work with whichever of you is town and come to the right conclusion, it's in my mind that whoever is scum has played a great game so I fully expect they'd be in my ear with "yes you make perfect sense, keep it up" hoping I feel confident and lay my vote. So part of me also feels alone and unable to trust anyone if that makes sense. So if I'm coming off cold, I apologize. It's the nature of the game.

also i cannot offer any examples of my play and i am sorry for that but i think here if i were mafia i would kill joqiza as the loudest, most consistent voice in the room and also...

I'm almost positive I'd have killed you because I wouldn't see anyone eliminating you and I think Umlaut vs Joqiza would be an easy 1v1 to set up.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Oh I remember what I was looking at when I fell asleep last night. When I started pushing Dwlee, Joqiza started talking about "bad" and "Alice and Bob" comparisons. The one thing that stood out as a point possibly against Joqiza was the weird comment about Andante and Dwlee not seeming like scum together. It was like he was either setting up the post-Dwlee flip game already or maybe more likely trying to win over people who suspected Andante and convince them Dwlee is town for not being paired with Andante. This is the post I mean:

The real and sad tea is that Dwlee probably doesn't make that post if he's partnered with Andante. Which is devastating because I thought everyone else who talked besides those two has been at least a little bit towny and I was starting to get hopeful.

The fact that Joqiza ends up voting both Andante and Dwlee kind of fits with that being his intention. However, like everything else in this game, there's a town mold that it fits too which is not playing for associatives before a scum flip, simply noting them for later. The fact that he still ended up voting Andante, on surface level, seems to contradict the town world. However, a lot of info exists between Page 5 and Day 3 and a lot of that vote seemed to be PoE anyway. And again, the decision came late in the form of a hammer. So there's still nothing damning here but that is another thing on my mind that I'm trying to work through.

[Sleepless Assassin]

A thought that crossed my mind was maybe Joqiza as scum would think Roadkill would vote me. But I think Umlaut would have been more likely than Roadkill and Joqiza didn't come out going hard after me so I don't think that's right. If Joqiza is scum, I'm gonna be curious post game why the Umlaut kill over Roadkill because I just can't figure that out. That combined with the Dwlee hammer is probably why I'm having trouble seeing Joqiza as scum despite my gut telling me Roadkill has appeared townier. At the time, Joqiza felt towniest Day 1 but I've been looking back and it feels like Roadkill was townier now. The fact that we have 8 days is gonna make me seriously ovethink this.

[Sleepless Assassin]

reading through the past page or two with the isoing and back and forthing is a bit much for me right now, would rather do when i am all comfy.

Something caught my eye here. Let me get this straight: you're saying that upon your return to thread, your method of catching up was to ISO slots one by one.

Instead of... just reading the 5 pages of the game?

WTF?

I don't think this is actually that strange (I did pretty much that to form reads on the players in my "that leaves..." category in my earlier post) but even if it were strange, how is it alignment-indicative?

To be clear, I don't find ISOing strange, I just find it strange to return to a game after two days and not choose to at least skim the thread before diving into ISO's and putting out conclusions on slots. I've always used ISO's as tools to better understand a game rather than as the main method of delivery, so that was difficult to swallow.

Also, like, I just had this moment while reading through her posts. She called my question to Esther meaningless, and I thought, "was that question really meaningless? I don't think what Esther said was clear at all. Does it make sense to call this meaningless?" And I got the sense that, andante hadn't even really thought about whether my question made sense in context, she just called it meaningless, just because.

Then I get later in her posts and she says she's ISOing and I realize she's numbering her posts for each slot, and I have this mental facepalm moment, because I realize what's happening. She's going through the ISO's one by one, and like, the post Esther made, and the question I asked her, aren't even connected in her brain, they're like two completely and unrelated spheres. And I just think Oh My God.

Do I think it's a wolf? God I really want it to be a wolf, and I think I have the right to think it's a wolf because wolves have every incentive to do that, just ISO players one by one and take surface level readings of their posts and call them scum. But do I really REALLY think it's a wolf? I don't know, I just think Oh my God. She is deadset on me being scum when I'm ISO 4/10 and she's read less than half the players in the game. Oh My God.

however...

this might seem a little... 'really dude?' but did it take you that long to realize that andante was doing individual isos?

and onto points that probably matter more, what is the incentive for andante to approach the game like that, as either alignment? you've touched a bit on why she does as mafia, but why as town?

(you seem like you enjoy these sort of tangents/thought experiments in game but if it's not something you'd want to use up a post on i understand, but i think that... ah. understanding the motivations a bit or trying to helps sort beyond the 'oh my god' state you're in?) (i have my own interpretations as well that i'll offer if you want but it defeats the point a bit, to go first when i'm asking.)

also, do you consider yourself a dramatic person/have a flair for it?

[3/10] (my spoons are rattling away swiftly, so i'll return later with more comfort/attention.)

Knowing that this is town vs scum is interesting perspective. Is it Joqiza reacting weird to Andante because he's scum or is it Roadkill nitpicking and Joqiza doing something weird but not necessarily scummy. I think the biggest point in Roadkills favor is the question at the end about dramatics. That sounds like trying to understand Joqiza. Like real sorting.