UK Eastermeet 2022 Invitational (Game over!)

[Fenchurch]

I don’t get any scum vibes from CES, probably because I fully agree with his reads and his push for Menno.

I’m actually not sure how you land on CES and not me, because if anything I’d say his reasoning has been clearer than mine. The vibes I get from this are the same as CES being wrongly executed in the final day of our last Team Mafia game.

Klick, your re-read has: ‘Menno seems town early D1’ (sure, I felt the same) and then skips straight past the quickhammer as far as I can tell. I don’t get how most of you are willing to just bypass that. To me it was such a clear scum play.

Same for you Nexus. You’ve said you don’t think Menno is scum and that’s all. Elaborate please.

[Postie]

I keep reading and then not being able to immediately respond at the time and losing my train of thought so let's see if I can stream of consciousness a bit
Firstly, I'm entirely unwilling to execute outside of Menno/cpol today,

maybe

Fenchurch but I don't see that wagon happening today
And maybe it's too early in the game for this but I do find that "who would I be the most mad about losing to if they turned out to be scum?" tends to correlate with scum often enough for me for it to be a useful tool to decide who I need to not back off, and I can tell you I will literally never let any of you live it down if either Menno or cpol are scum and just never executed for some reason
Still don't like the sudden wagon on Menno and then sudden backing off Menno; maintain it reads like bus and then opportunistic change of plan
Underwhelming Primate catch up but I'll take it - the logic on Menno feels a lot like "too scummy to be scum", which in my experience is a terrible argument; scum can and will do brazenly anti-town things if they think the risk/payoff calculation works out
Given people don't seem to be joining me on cpol and at least one of these two is definitely scum:

VOTE: McMenno

Wanna maintain pressure and momentum here
Think enough people have unvoted that they can't quickhanmer themselves

@Klick

- you said you'd join me on cpol if no town potato vendor claim. Did you change your mind? If so, why?

@Primate

- who's your biggest scumread? Why aren't you voting anyone?

Edited for term replacement - CDB

[Postie]

Ack I fudged the terminology again
Sorry CDB

<3 - CDB

[Postie]

Hmmm it's true I can't come up with a good explanation for how Menno would be scum alongside my other reads beyond third party, which is bugging me a little because it feels possible but also if I want to continue scumreading cpol/Fen as a team there would have to be two scum teams given Menno's quickhammer was a scumteam-oriented play (sacrifice self to help team)
And that doesn't seem particularly likely?
But I also can't shake the feeling they are simply all scum
Don't make do ISOs I don't wanna do ISOs

[Postie]

I'm inclined to vote cpol just so I don't have to read any more about potatoes.

And yet you have barely spoken about anything else all game
Your posting is like 90% just potatoposting or complaining about potatoposting
Do you have any actual reads you can substantiate

[Klick]

Klick, your re-read has: ‘Menno seems town early D1’ (sure, I felt the same) and then skips straight past the quickhammer as far as I can tell. I don’t get how most of you are willing to just bypass that. To me it was such a clear scum play.

'Early' is a fun modifier; where did that come from?

For me, it's more like, 'everything Menno has done has looked town, except for the quickhammer'. Which, when I begrudgingly get past my frustrations at the hammer happening, is both something that town has done historically and in line with play I'd expect from Menno. Tell me you haven't been in a game with a town quickhammering - it can't be a newer phenomenon. The only reasoning I can recall seeing for voting Menno that isn't just for the hammer itself is from CES:

Vote: Menno

The lack of explanation for the hammer either Yesterday or Today seems fairly damning.

I don't think it's quite as straightforward as scum potato vendor = cpolscum, so I don't see any need to rush it.

But wouldn't it make Menno-scum much less likely? If Menno-scum's goal was to get an extra kill by timing the execution when cpol had no potato, why would the scum team then decide to save cpol?

Mennoscum could easily make one decision and then the scum group could decide on a different course of action during the Night. They may even have been zooted at the time of the execution as they claimed and then realized overnight they were never getting away with it without some sort of distraction.

@CES - you said that Meno's hammer was damning. So to confirm, you think they are definitely scum?

To be clear, I said their lack of explanation was damning. I've seen plenty of quickhammers in my day and I've never seen so little attempt at justification or mea culpa; if Menno is town, how is there no inkling of pro-town thinking behind it that could be expounded upon or if not that, some sense of guilt? Especially in combination with your situation, this feels like a deliberate move; they have nothing good to say, so they say nothing and hope the town overthinks it/gets distracted by other things.

This whole exchange feels like basically a distraction. Here's what I find interesting: Menno has now made some more comments about "why" they hammered Bella - do any of their comments actually feel like they explain or illuminate what happened?

The gist of this line of reasoning is that, if Menno were town, they would be providing more reasoning for hammering Bella than just being zooted. I don't really think this is true, and there's not much justification provided for why this is specifically how Menno would be playing it as scum as opposed to town. 'I've never seen so little attempt at justification' is an observation that doesn't have any alignment-deducing qualities to it - the conclusion that scum are more likely to avoid giving an explanation for their actions altogether is left to be assumed by the reader. I don't think town!CES would be expecting as much of a rational explanation for Menno's quickhammer as he is at the moment, while I see plenty of motive for scum!CES to choose this as his narrative.

The movement against Menno feels largely like a kneejerk reaction against the quickhammer without much consideration of their alignment outside of the hammer. If one attempts to view Menno's actions from a town lens, I think it's pretty easy to see.

[Klick]

@Klick - you said you'd join me on cpol if no town potato vendor claim. Did you change your mind? If so, why?

I've reconsidered, and I think the situation with Chris getting a potato at night is inconclusive. With both Menno and Chris actually, I'm rather frustrated at different things that have happened surrounding them (Menno with the quickhammer, Chris with no explanation behind him getting a potato), but I don't think there's enough behind either of those points to conclude scum behind either of them. With Chris in particular, I'm also really liking where his reads have wound up upon reflection - Menno town, you town, CES scum. That's basically the take I had upon a reread. Chris' view on the game is also sufficiently complex and in-depth that I feel like it'd take significantly more effort from him to be scum fabricating the takes he's given up to now.

I totally get being frustrated by how fishy the situations behind Menno and Chris look on the surface. But I don't think that's where scum are.

[Klick]

Menno, I'm town, my takes on you and Chris were lazy, come vote CES with me

[cpol]

I'd like to hear more from Primate today.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

'I've never seen so little attempt at justification' is an observation that doesn't have any alignment-deducing qualities to it - the conclusion that scum are more likely to avoid giving an explanation for their actions altogether is left to be assumed by the reader. I don't think town!CES would be expecting as much of a rational explanation for Menno's quickhammer as he is at the moment, while I see plenty of motive for scum!CES to choose this as his narrative.

The first observation is to me what counters what would otherwise be a reasonable narrative, i.e. that we've all seen town quickhammers. This is not any town quickhammer I've ever seen looks like.

And I did go into detail as to why I thought not explaining it seems like a strategy scum!Menno would employ. The strategy aspect of it only seem clearer to me - barely explain things, hope things blow over/town gets distracted by something else, and then provide more explanation or more relevantly something that looks like more explanation so it looks played out.

(The use of the word "rational" also seems highly misleading to me. I'd also be perfectly fine with an irrational explanation!)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

If you can provide any examples of why this play isn't out of character for Menno specifically, I'd be interested in seeing them.

[Klick]

I was zooted as hell

1 hour later

VOTE: McMenno

here, that should be one more vote

A little less than 24 hours later

literally just a vt

mcmenno why did you self vote.

im gonna be executed as confscum right? waiting for cpol to put me out of my misery

31 seconds later

UNVOTE: McMenno

I want someone to come forward about cpol's potato.

zzzzzzzzzzzz

what a terrible idea

And then they go on to provide further thoughts on the game for the next few hours


The profile I get from this is not that they are hoping this will blow over - I'm getting defeatism, and then from after 213, an interest in providing thoughts that come to them.

I can't provide examples for Menno playing forum Mafia, as I haven't played with them to my memory. But this style of play does fit the profile I'd expect from them based on having played Survivor with them before, as well as from the FtF games we played at the Meet.

[McMenno]

quite an unfrotunate situation

[McMenno]

I'm more than a little bit checked out

I'm never gonna vote cpol today he's so town

like four days left? this ces wagon doesn't feel the greatest even though he was like my #2 scumread

I should probably vote there anyway at some point

[McMenno]

VOTE: ces

those last two post were also just kind of irritating to me (prickly mood)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

The profile I get from this is not that they are hoping this will blow over - I'm getting defeatism, and then from after 213, an interest in providing thoughts that come to them.

Well, obviously they're not gonna say it, are they? If you're not going to have an open mind about this, I see no reason to continue this conversation.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

What do you think of Klick, Menno?

[Postie]

CES feels like a scum counterwagon
Do not like

[Postie]

With Chris in particular, I'm also really liking where his reads have wound up upon reflection - Menno town, you town, CES scum. That's basically the take I had upon a reread. Chris' view on the game is also sufficiently complex and in-depth that I feel like it'd take significantly more effort from him to be scum fabricating the takes he's given up to now.

Strongly disagree
It's not uncommon for scum to coast for a while and then pull a wallpost out of their ass at an opportune moment when it seems like people just need a little push to townread them
That's part of what's so frustrating about no one voting cpol with me - never got a chance to see how cpol responds to pressure
I think cpol's thoughts have been mostly superficial - where are you reading complexity and depth?

[Postie]

[snip]

All of this is exactly why Menno reads scum to me
Knows they won't get away with the move they made, defeatism sets in, hands it over to their scumbuddies to bus them and hopefully end the day early with as little info as possible
The self-vote reads like an attempted/failed quickhammer to me

[ChannelDelibird]

Vote Count

Cogito Ergo Sum (4):

cpol, Nexus, Klick, McMenno

McMenno (3):

Fenchurch, Cogito Ergo Sum, Postie

Postie (1):

Wenna

Not voting (2): Primate, Porochaz

With 10 players alive, it will take 6 votes to execute.

Time until deadline: (expired on 2022-05-04 13:33:00)

[cpol]

And maybe it's too early in the game for this but I do find that "who would I be the most mad about losing to if they turned out to be scum?" tends to correlate with scum often enough for me for it to be a useful tool to decide who I need to not back off, and I can tell you I will literally never let any of you live it down if either Menno or cpol are scum and just never executed for some reason

I think this is a dangerous way of thinking, Postie. You’re forcing the game to have the narrative you want it game to have, rather than the one it does. I implore you to have a re-read of the game from an objective viewpoint. You’re a strong town read for me, but I think your lack of objectiveness here isn’t helping. I’m happy to be questioned on anything from me that you are still unhappy with.

That's part of what's so frustrating about no one voting cpol with me - never got a chance to see how cpol responds to pressure

Not that it necessarily matters, but if I came under substantive pressure, I’d react similar to how I did yesterday - that if it were looking likely the execution was going to stick I would accept it. I’m VT, I have no abilities to affect the game, and enough interesting conversations have happened around me (unfortunately including potatoes) that I think me flipping would offer up some benefit compared to a random shot in the dark and would also add some clarity to what’s been previously said. If it is going to happen, I'd rather it was early in the game than drag it out to an end game conversation. Though I do think that I have shown enough pro town play to be a bad choice. And of course I’d still rather try and get scum.

For me I think that CES should claim. If the claim is good, we move to Menno. Menno has also claimed VT and is in a similar position to me where them being executed gives us information to work with, and whilst I can definitely see Menno being town, the execution was still very questionable, and I'm not completely certain - it could go either way for me and I wouldn't be surprised. If the claim is bad, then the execution on CES stands. We're short on time now to move anywhere else I feel.

[Postie]

I think this is a dangerous way of thinking, Postie. You’re forcing the game to have the narrative you want it game to have, rather than the one it does. I implore you to have a re-read of the game from an objective viewpoint. You’re a strong town read for me, but I think your lack of objectiveness here isn’t helping. I’m happy to be questioned on anything from me that you are still unhappy with.

The way you've gone from (self-admittedly) trying to line me up as an execution to now appealing to me like this... the Vibes are very off my dude, even setting aside everything else.
That said... fine fine, I may as well give the game a re-read before the end of the day.

[cpol]

Yes, I very much disliked your posts #128 #129. I didn’t understand why you’d come in so hard for me. And, I’ll be honest, there was a little OMGUS-y ness around being called lazy, a slow learner and then being facepalmed at I brought this up in post #133, asking why you were doing what you were doing, but you never replied.

You then came is super hard again the next day following the execution and again I couldn’t understand it from a town point of view at the time. I read it as trying to discredit what I thought at least was a pro-town play again (as I thought you did in 128 and 129) and that you were pushing for the execution of me as an easy miss-execution, potentially set up by yourself. I saw this as scummy.

I’ve since re-evaluated as I’ve previously stated.

[Primate]

Underwhelming Primate catch up but I'll take it - the logic on Menno feels a lot like "too scummy to be scum", which in my experience is a terrible argument; scum can and will do brazenly anti-town things if they think the risk/payoff calculation works out

Not my intention. I just think they're scummy.

I'm very concerned how multiple people are backing off Menno all at once.

I’m also bothered by people backing off Menno. I still think Menno is 90% likely scum for the quick hammer. The contrition and explanation hasn't changed that for me and only came after people have pushed for it. Overall I think Menno's play is exactly like scum who judged (rightly or wrongly) that that quickhammer would be in their favour and was worth eating an execution for.

I don't know about that. Possibly more of a "damn the consequences, tomorrows problem

There are a few things that Postie does D1 that make me think they're likely town, but this switch in particular from going with the Menno wagon to quickly reconsidering about Chris still being alive make me put Postie solidly in the town pile

Yeah.

I don't think Poro or CES are particularly town, I think they're currently two rather high odds of hitting scum if we voted in there

Poro in particular it feels like in 173 he gives a few thoughts, but ultimately is content with the Menno wagon that's forming and the status quo generally - and if I follow my gut and say that Menno is town, Poro's play feels a lot more like scum fine with letting the Menno vote just slide through

Don't like the poro/ces grouping.
About Poro, yeah.

@Primate

- who's your biggest scumread? Why aren't you voting anyone?

Don't know, and I'm bad at mafia. Probably Poro or Menno.

I don't like it when people say "Lets vote from within X/Y/Z, probably fine, probably scum in there".

The profile I get from this is not that they are hoping this will blow over - I'm getting defeatism, and then from after 213, an interest in providing thoughts that come to them.

Uh, yeah, which is scummy.

I should stop pulling the poro read out of my ass and actually solidify it. Klick's been a bit scummy too.