Open 855: Not Mafia's Republic | Game Over

[Not_Mafia]

I’m happy with

Elim AAR —> NK Me —> No lim —> Kill Peng —> Elim Aftersun

Since that wins aswell, plus I think both wolf candidates genuinely think I’m the mafia and will NK me anyway if we don’t hit them today

[catboi]

ok

if you're town I think the solve is NM is mafia and AnR is last wolf

I'll reread AnR iso tomm I think catboi wants to yeet the hydra

I'm not decided on anything by a large margin I was just spitballing last night

[catboi]

I'll get to reading things tonight

[catboi]

boy was I out of it the other night - for some reason I had it in my head that taly/arete occupied the same slot even though that's obviously wrong

immediate thoughts on people

catboi: should be fairly obvious atp I'm not scum, if I actually have to answer for myself I will

pooky: just very unlikely scum on play, I think ydrasse actually claims mafia if he's mafia with her, I think the length he went to arguing with arete to try to kill me doesn't happen if they're both wolves

penguin: basically never a wolf because of arete's push on him day 1, could still be mafia. basically never voting him while we're hunting for the wolf

spf: very unlikely mafia given she went for voting off ydraase day 2. could be a wolf, but I realized distancing like that on Day 1 is risky with a seer active. dunno if I really feel it.

n_m: could be anything and I wouldn't be surprised, don't think he's very likely to be town at all. don't think the evidence of whatever arete said matters much at all

a&r: not mafia, could still be a wolf, posts on arete are kind of suspect.

[catboi]

unrelated to other things on a reread i kind of dislike 335 for a&r on the abomination, just the way they were phrasing that suspicion is kind of hard for me to believe

Arete's reads feel fine, them talking about the Ace portion of Abomination basically aligns itself with how I was reading that slot. 4mask read I agree on. Adding them to my townlist.

- Brad

VOTE: Arete LastWoof

- Brad

Town:

SPF
Catboi

Townlean:

Pooky
Abomination
Arete
Ydrasse

That's really it.

- Brad

Arete wall post makes my eyes glaze over so they are null.

SPF and Not mafia I still scum lean.

- sk

ok so why dont u vote for arete then?

I'd rather vote for you.

i think what's most striking to me actually is how little a&r actually interacts with arete, there's very little actual mention of them which given activity and how much they went at it with other players is...kind of strange?

[catboi]

I also just...don't find them that towny on a reread, the stuff I liked was earlier in the game but taking in the body of work I didn't care for the scumcases they were pushing.

IDK, might be conf-biasing myself but that's where I'm at

[catboi]

I imagine their post count by day would also be funny

[staypositivefriend]

havent really had time to play this game today but gira when u get a chance can u pls look at arete's interactions with not_mafia and tell me if u think they have partner equity?

[staypositivefriend]

i will return the favor by looking at a&r tomorrow when i am free

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I don't see anything very useful between NM/Arete.

I think what Arete said about NM not being paired with Arete because NM appealed to Arete felt kind of like wolf misdirection reverse psychology.

Between you and AnR, I think AnR is significantly stilted, frozen and crying.

I somewhat refuse to believe anyone can be so oblivious as to not know the difference between killing a werewolf and killing a mafia and to insist it's alright either way or whatever and I was kind of malding that they could be on my team but now that Catboi has take away their "locktown meta" passport I am overjoyed by the prospect of finding Brad in his little wolf cave and turning him into a WolfSteak.

[catboi]

Spoiler:

like if you guys are super sure that townbloc has only one wolf in it, then that means the 3 voters other than me are Mafia/Mafia/Wolf.

Which means the two mafia know who one of the wolves is

and like i dunno wtf they're doing but they sure aren't telling us who it is.

so where I'm at right now is like

group 1: people who have not been townie

STD, Penguin, Not_Mafia

none of these people have anything going for them. you can maybe sorta make an argument that STD has occasionally been solving but he is also kinda blatantly a Ydrasse partner.

it would make me really sad if any of those people were town. reality, obviously, doesn't care what makes me sad, but if someone is going to sign up to a game and then not even bother to try to solve at all then, like, what are they even doing!!

(admittedly their play is mostly kind of disappointing as scum too but I play on MU, I'm used to there being evils who just don't even bother to try)

but like

it's day 3

surely anyone in this group who's town should be able to do literally anything townie whatsoever by now, and they haven't

I do agree with your theory that this is more likely to have both mafia based on voting patterns from yesterday

group 2: people who have been townie

you, Braddra, SPF, Catbae

mathematically there's gotta be a scum in this group

so then I'm like

well, you look pretty good from the argument with Catbae yesterday, you kinda attached a giant lightning rod to yourself there, which you probably wouldn't want to do on either bad guy team. your day 1 shield on Penguin makes me think you're not likely to be scum unless you're specifically with him -- so if he flipped mafia or whatever I could basically clear you of being a werewolf. And you've been the hardest pusher on 'we need to kill werewolves not mafia' which makes me think that if you're scum you're more likely to be mafia, and I don't care if you're mafia, and also you being mafia would imply really weird things about yesterday's wagons. but then you're the one on the list I have the least handle on, you've been playing since I was two years old, maybe you could be galaxy-braining me?? but I don'tt hink so.

and then with Brad + Sabi, I've played several times with Brad as both alignments, and he's just a terrible scum, seriously I think me and SPF and Gira are failing to convey just how bad at scum he is. (this was really frustrating one time when I was trying to get him misexe'd on my homesite and he was like 'no I've been posting and I can't do that as evil' and like half the game was like 'yeah' and I kept pushing and one of him or his hydra partner threw a massive tantrum in thread. idk if I'm allowed to blame him for that though, it might've been his partner.) anyways, he would need to have massively levelled up his play as evil to be a wolf here. I also think some of the interactions between Sabi + Brad are real, like them fighting about SPF's alignment (although that could technically be real even if they are scum).

and then with SPF, she's been "solvy" all game though that's fakeable in multiball, her progressions have seemed really natural, I feel bad about yeeting her when she's clearly trying. I guess I have less I can solidly point to that makes her Definitely Town, that's not something she's fooled me with before.

and then with Catbae -- well, this doesn't change whether he is, but I really don't want the solviest tryhardiest person in the whole game to be an evil, that's just embarrassing for the rest of us. but even if I put that aside, like, he's been making enemies, he Cares in a way that no one else Cares, he had that whole emotional thing yesterday, and if he's either evil there's no one I can point to that makes sense as his partner.

and when I write it out like this the obvious conclusion is that I'm misreading SPF and was kind of avoiding looking in that direction because it'd make me feel stupid

but idt I'm misreading anyone else in the group?

idk what the mafia are doing. my current best guess is that there are two mafia in {STD, Penguin, Not_Mafia} and they're avoiding saying anything that might be taken as confirming that because if they confirm that they lose, as long as they can say there Could Be a mafia in the townblock they have a chance of victory, just a really small one

I've been trying to get one of them to juuuust claiiiiim already but so far it doesn't seem to be working

I guess it's also possible they know they're fucked and have decided to throw for werewolves rather than town, in which case I don't really have anything I can say to convince them otherwise other than 'gamethrowing is bad, play to win' which, well,

gestures at Ydrasse not claiming

I think you're mistaking

effort

for actual towniness

maybe

if we temporarily stipulate a world where you're town, who are the evils and which ones are on which team

busting out laughing at this interaction

[catboi]

so it seems like u agree with me that there's a wolf between penguin/not_mafia, even in a world where i'm a wolf with one of them. who do u think that would be atm?

leaning Penguin

if I go with the model where mafia would be fine with being wolfy/not want to be super townie whereas werewolves would want to be perceived as town, I think Penguin's early game feels more like someone who is vaguely gesturing in the direction of wanting to be townread and failing, while NotMafia's game felt more like someone who Just Did Not Care At All (albeit this is less true today)

also when I was trying to get Someone In That Trio to claim mafia and point out a werewolf in that group Penguin's response felt more like 'no I can't claim mafia (because I'm not and I'd get CC'd' whereas NotMafia's response was more like 'haha .... unless?' [they also said not to call them town like a page back but that might be a pun on their name]

and NotMafia is making pushes that make more sense for someone-who-is-hunting-wolves than someone-who-is-hunting-mafia

this is a very lulzy read, but i am not entirely sure arete actually defends a partner in this way, idk

[catboi]

havent really had time to play this game today but gira when u get a chance can u pls look at arete's interactions with not_mafia and tell me if u think they have partner equity?

I think it's certainly possible, like I said earlier, I don't think anything is really clearing there

[catboi]

1694

is

bad tho

[catboi]

the strongest point in favor of A&R is arete just going in and slapping them as top town but i'm fairly sure they entered after the hydra was already getting townread by me & spf

the thing about that is though is that arete almost never interacted with them after that

it's really stark

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

I can't wait for Sabi to come in here and lecture us about how she's the world's leading Bradexpert

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

tho I think they're probly both pretty demoralized and just waiting for death atp

[Not_Mafia]

don't think he's very likely to be town at all

Why? I don't see why I'm getting scumread in this so much in this particular game versus others

[DkKoba]

Votecount 4.1

Not_Mafia

(1): AbbyandRani

Not Voting

(5): PookyTheMagicalBear, staypositivefriend, PenguinPower, catboi, Not_Mafia


With 6 alive, it takes 4 to eliminate.

Day 4 deadline ends in: (expired on 2022-07-15 23:18:39).

[DkKoba]

AbbyandRani has been prodded

[catboi]

don't think he's very likely to be town at all

Why? I don't see why I'm getting scumread in this so much in this particular game versus others

it feels like you're trying to give th appearance of actually playing but I never get the sense there's much logical basis to anything you've said this game

[Not_Mafia]

don't think he's very likely to be town at all

Why? I don't see why I'm getting scumread in this so much in this particular game versus others

it feels like you're trying to give th appearance of actually playing but I never get the sense there's much logical basis to anything you've said this game

When have I ever been a logical player?

[PenguinPower]

i'm here but v/la so activity will be restricted to nighttime (central time).

happy to sheep pooky since he's town.

[staypositivefriend]

Arete's reads feel fine, them talking about the Ace portion of Abomination basically aligns itself with how I was reading that slot. 4mask read I agree on. Adding them to my townlist.

- Brad

VOTE: Arete LastWoof

- Brad

Town:

SPF
Catboi

Townlean:

Pooky
Abomination
Arete
Ydrasse

That's really it.

- Brad

yeah, the shift from calling arete a townlean > voting for arete when me and pooky vote for them > calling arete a townlean again with no explanation for how he got from point A to point B is a bit wonky, and technically compatible even though i'm still not really convinced that's the case

[staypositivefriend]

ok so why dont u vote for arete then?

I'd rather vote for you.

that said, this post feels kind of cocky and confrontational in a way that brad usually isnt as a scum lol, and tbh im not sure if hed be bold enough as a wolf to make a post like this in response to pooky asking for him to vote his partner